🏇 Marathon Missions and Speed Sprints! Welcome to Plumpton, Catterick & Wolverhampton – 10th February 2025

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
Starting Bankroll £30
Top Ups to Bankroll £00.00
19th to 25th January 2025
Wk 1 £35 Wk 2 £32.01 Wk 3 -£18.12

WEEK 4 £13.75
Sun - -£07.50
Mon - £02.17
Tue - £00.00
Wed - £00.00
Thrs - £00.00
Fri - £00.00
Sat - £0.00

Note from Coldjack: The new week started the worst possible way with a total loss of all stakes. We will do better when we go again!

Trixie @4 Lines
Invincible Nao | Zafaan | King Of Speed
Stake £4.00 (4 x £1.00)
Returns £62.70 Won £8.27

Patent @7 Lines
Balcomie Breeze | Counsel | You Are Everything
Stake £3.50 (7 x £0.50)
Returns £56.97 Won £1.40

Stakes £7.50 Winning £2.17 (P/L) losing £0.00
Modest returns for the 'Trickey Trixie'
Patent punting for the 'zsar bomba' of booms!
(1pt = £1 Pick Your Own Point Level & Runners)

Comprehensive Critique & Debrief of Blog’s Post-Race Card Predictions

Below is a detailed breakdown of the accuracy, strengths, and areas for improvement in the Trixie Bet #1 (Consistency Play) and Patent Bet #2 (All-Ways Patent), along with individual race analysis.

Trixie Bet #1: The Consistency Play

Aim: Lower-risk selections with strong form and reliable profiles.

1️⃣ 3:45 Plumpton (3m4f Handicap Chase) – Supervisor (AJ the Hobbyist subbed Invincible Neo)

• Prediction: Expected to place, strong staying credentials.

• Actual Result: Finished outside the placings.

• Winner: Invincible Nao (10/3JFav) – one of the recommended selections.

• Key Takeaway: Supervisor didn’t feature in the top three, but the race still had a successful selection (Invincible Nao). This highlights the importance of market confidence in chasers from the Moore stable at Plumpton. Vision De Maine (4th) also ran well.

2️⃣ 8:00 Wolverhampton (1m4f Stakes) – Zafaan

• Prediction: Expected to win, strong Southwell form.

• Actual Result: Finished outside the placings.

• Winner: Cosmic View (14/1) – a big-priced upset.

• Key Takeaway: Zafaan was well-backed but failed to fire in a slowly run race. The unexpected nature of Wolverhampton all-weather contests requires caution with short-priced runners. National Health (2nd at 7/1) was a better pick.

3️⃣ 8:30 Wolverhampton (1m Handicap) – King Of Speed

• Prediction: Expected to win.

• Actual Result: 🏆 WINNER (13/8Fav).

• Key Takeaway: A spot-on selection! The Loughnane-trained runner proved too strong. This reaffirmed the importance of proven form over course and distance.

Overall Trixie Performance:

✅ One winner (King Of Speed)
❌ Two underperformers (Supervisor, Zafaan)

Verdict: One correct pick in a Trixie is not enough for profit. A stronger approach might be including each-way safety plays on longer races.

Patent Bet #2: The All-Ways Patent (Higher Risk Play)

Aim: To find value in longer-odds selections.

1️⃣ 4:00 Catterick (2m3f Handicap Hurdle) – Balcomie Breeze

• Prediction: Win.

• Actual Result: 2nd at 7/1.

• Winner: Achnamara (17/2).

• Key Takeaway: A solid each-way selection! Balcomie Breeze ran well, but Achnamara outstayed him. Foster’s Fortune (3rd) also made the frame, boosting the credibility of the selections.

2️⃣ 5:30 Wolverhampton (5f Handicap) – Counsel

• Prediction: Win.

• Actual Result: 🏆 WINNER (15/8Fav).

• Key Takeaway: A perfect read! Counsel justified favouritism despite a 4lb penalty. The market confidence was spot on.

3️⃣ 6:30 Wolverhampton (7f Stakes) – You Are Everything

• Prediction: Win.

• Actual Result: 2nd (9/2).

• Winner: Outreach (10/1).

• Key Takeaway: Another near-miss. You Are Everything ran well but was beaten by a less-exposed rival.

Overall Patent Performance:

✅ One winner (Counsel)
🥈 Two runners-up (Balcomie Breeze, You Are Everything)

Verdict: Solid picks, but a winner in the 4:00 Catterick race would have been more profitable. The approach was accurate, but all three needed to hit to maximise return.

Individual Race Breakdowns & Lessons Learned

Plumpton (3:45) – Sussex National Handicap Chase

✅ Correct Call: Invincible Nao (10/3JFav) won and was featured in the blog.
❌ Missed Each-Way Value: Supervisor didn’t place despite the confidence rating.
💡 Lesson: The Sussex National often goes to progressive stayers, rather than those who have already peaked. Horses with recent C&D wins are highly reliable.

Catterick (4:00) – Handicap Hurdle

✅ Balcomie Breeze (2nd, 7/1) and Foster’s Fortune (3rd, 4/1) both placed.
❌ Winner Achnamara (17/2) was overlooked.
💡 Lesson: Post-wind operation improvement should have been given more weight for Achnamara. Market watching was key, as Balcomie Breeze drifted pre-race.

Wolverhampton (5:30) – 5f Handicap

✅ Counsel won (15/8Fav), confirming market confidence.
✅ Darlo Pride (4th) was a near miss for placings.
❌ Rosenpur and Bear Rock were non-runners.
💡 Lesson: Recent winning form at Lingfield translated well to Wolverhampton.

Wolverhampton (6:30) – 7f Stakes

✅ You Are Everything placed 2nd (9/2), showing trip suitability.
❌ Outreach (10/1) was overlooked and won.
💡 Lesson: Wide draws can work well in Wolverhampton's lower-grade races. You Are Everything had a bad draw, but still ran well.

Wolverhampton (8:30) – 1m Handicap

✅ King Of Speed won (13/8Fav).
✅ Conquest Of Power (2nd, 15/2) was a strong wildcard pick.
💡 Lesson: Proven C&D form remains vital. King Of Speed had track and trip form, making him a standout bet.

Overall Analysis of Predictions

✅ 4 Winners:

1. Invincible Nao (3:45 Plumpton, 10/3JFav)

2. Counsel (5:30 Wolverhampton, 15/8Fav)

3. King Of Speed (8:30 Wolverhampton, 13/8Fav)

4. National Health (2nd at 7/1 in 8:00 Wolverhampton, best alternative to Zafaan)

🥈 Close Seconds:

• Balcomie Breeze (4:00 Catterick, 7/1)

• You Are Everything (6:30 Wolverhampton, 9/2)

❌ Disappointments:

• Supervisor (3:45 Plumpton)

• Zafaan (8:00 Wolverhampton)

Final Verdict

Trixie Bet #1 (Consistency Play):

🔹 Accuracy: 1 out of 3 winners.
🔹 Room for Improvement: Each-way insurance should be considered in marathon chases.

Rating: ★★★☆☆ (Decent, but needed 2/3 winners to be profitable).

Patent Bet #2 (All-Ways Patent):

🔹 Accuracy: 1 winner, 2 seconds.
🔹 Room for Improvement: Better focus on wind surgery form and market confidence.

Rating: ★★★★☆ (A near-miss—one more winner would have made it excellent).

Final Summary

✅ The overall predictions were solid, with 4 winning selections and multiple near-misses.
🔹 Market confidence was generally accurate, especially for Counsel and King Of Speed.
🔹 Adjustments needed for marathon chases and underestimating less-exposed horses (e.g. Achnamara).
🔹 The Patent was more profitable than the Trixie due to better-priced selections.

📝 Improvements for next time:
1️⃣ More focus on unexposed types in low-grade Wolverhampton races.
2️⃣ Consider each-way backing in Trixies for longer-distance races.
3️⃣ Tighter scrutiny on last-time-out winners who may still be well-handicapped.

📊 Final Score: 7.5/10 – Good strike rate, but one more winner would have sealed a big profit!

Pre-Race Form and Tips

Trixie Bet #1: The Consistency Play

(Focus on consistent performers with proven track records, strong recent form, and effective jockey-trainer partnerships.)

1️⃣ 3:45 Plumpton (3m4f Handicap Chase) – Supervisor (AJ t H sub: Invincible Nao)

• Trainer: Venetia Williams

• Jockey: Charlie Deutsch

• Key Factors: Consistent performer who won at Wincanton in April and returned with a solid runner-up effort at Warwick in December. Venetia Williams’ horses thrive over marathon trips, and soft ground will play to his strengths. He’s a seasoned campaigner who could run into a place late on.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆

2️⃣ 8:00 Wolverhampton (1m4f Stakes) – Zafaan

• Trainer: Charlie Clover

• Jockey: Sean Levey

• Key Factors: Narrowly denied in a classified event over this trip at Southwell last time out. Placed twice over hurdles before returning to the Flat in good form. He’s clearly thriving under his new yard, and that strong effort at Southwell suggests he’s knocking on the door.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆

3️⃣ 8:30 Wolverhampton (1m Handicap) – King Of Speed

• Trainer: Mark Loughnane

• Jockey: Billy Loughnane

• Key Factors: C&D winner in November and a strong second at Kempton last week, finishing well. Proven at this level and remains in solid form. Back at a track where he has won before, with a top apprentice jockey in the saddle.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆

Bet Type:

Trixie (4 bets: 3 doubles + 1 treble).

Focus:

Aim for at least two winners for a strong return.

Patent Bet #2: The All-Ways Patent (Higher-Risk Play)

(Target higher odds selections with strong potential but slight question marks.)

1️⃣ 4:00 Catterick (2m3f Handicap Hurdle) – Balcomie Breeze

• Trainer: Gillian Boanas

• Jockey: Sean Quinlan

• Key Factors: Impressive winner last time out over 1m7f at Catterick, showing clear improvement after a wind operation. Now steps back up in trip. Lightly raced with plenty of upside. A 6lb rise shouldn't stop further progress, and he’s well positioned to back up his latest win.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★☆☆

2️⃣ 5:30 Wolverhampton (5f Handicap) – Counsel

• Trainer: Michael Appleby

• Jockey: Luke Morris

• Key Factors: Won well at Lingfield (5f) just three days ago, finishing strongly and looking full of running at the line. Carries a 4lb penalty but still looks well-treated based on that last run. If he reproduces the same turn of foot, he should take all the beating.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★☆☆

3️⃣ 6:30 Wolverhampton (7f Stakes) – You Are Everything

• Trainer: Tony Carroll

• Jockey: Luke Morris

• Key Factors: Hasn't had much luck in running recently but has been running well over shorter trips. A return to 7f should suit better. Strong finishing style suggests this trip is ideal, and with a clearer passage, he can go very close against modest opposition.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★☆☆

Bet Type:

Patent (7 bets: 3 singles, 3 doubles, 1 treble).

Focus:

Even one winner covers much of the stake, two winners bring profit, and all three winners yield an excellent return.

Summary:

• Trixie #1: Lower-risk, high-probability selections.

• Patent #2: Higher-risk plays with good upside potential.

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which 'obby Picks (dropping Hs since the dog chewed my denture) are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.
Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

Selections from Plumpton, Catterick and Wolverhampton

🏇 15:45 Plumpton (3m4f Handicap Chase)

1️⃣ Win Selection: Invincible Nao

Trainer: Gary & Josh Moore | Jockey: Caoilin Quinn
Key Form: Won over 3m1f 152yds at Plumpton last time out, beating Morfee by 2¾ lengths. Progressive chaser who has thrived at this track.
Why: Looks well treated off a 4lb rise for that victory. Showed stamina and class when pulling clear last time. With similar conditions today, he’s the one to beat.

2️⃣ 2nd Place Prediction: Vision De Maine

Trainer: David Pipe | Jockey: Jack Tudor
Key Form: Placed third in that same race at Plumpton, finishing 3¼ lengths behind Invincible Nao. Prior to that, he won two chases and is still improving.
Why: Off the same official rating (110), he has a great chance of going close. His trainer is in decent form, and if he stays the longer trip, he’ll be a strong contender.

3️⃣ 3rd Place Prediction: Supervisor

Trainer: Venetia Williams | Jockey: Charlie Deutsch
Key Form: Consistent performer who won at Wincanton in April and returned with a solid runner-up effort at Warwick in December.
Why: Venetia Williams’ horses thrive over marathon trips, and soft ground will play to his strengths. He’s a seasoned campaigner who could run into a place late on.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: So Said I

Trainer: Joe Tizzard | Jockey: Freddie Gingell
Key Form: Consistently placed this season and finished third in a competitive Fakenham handicap chase last time out.
Why: A step up in trip could unlock more improvement, and blinkers may help him travel better. At a backable each-way price, he could spring a surprise if he stays.

🏇 16:00 Catterick (2m3f Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Win Selection: Balcomie Breeze

Trainer: Gillian Boanas | Jockey: Sean Quinlan
Key Form: Impressive winner last time out over 1m7f at Catterick, showing clear improvement after a wind operation. Now steps back up in trip.
Why: Lightly raced with plenty of upside. A 6lb rise shouldn't stop further progress, and he’s well positioned to back up his latest win.

2️⃣ 2nd Place Prediction: Final Edgar

Trainer: Mark Walford | Jockey: Jamie Hamilton
Key Form: Runner-up over this course and distance last time out, showing a return to form after a disappointing chase campaign.
Why: Only up 2lb for that good effort and should be competitive again. Catterick form is solid, and he’ll be in the mix late on.

3️⃣ 3rd Place Prediction: Not A Light

Trainer: Philip Hobbs & Johnson White | Jockey: Callum Pritchard
Key Form: Won a maiden hurdle at Hexham in December, stepping forward after a long layoff.
Why: Mark of 113 is fair, and he has plenty of potential to progress now handicapping. If he improves again, he could be right in the finish.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Foster’s Fortune

Trainer: Chris Grant | Jockey: Danny McMenamin
Key Form: In the top two in five of his last six starts, proving ultra-consistent.
Why: Tough, reliable type who always runs his race. He’s gone up another 4lb, but consistency could see him sneak into the frame again.

🏇 17:30 Wolverhampton (5f Handicap)

1️⃣ Win Selection: Counsel

Trainer: Michael Appleby | Jockey: Luke Morris
Key Form: Won well at Lingfield (5f) just three days ago, finishing strongly and looking full of running at the line.
Why: Carries a 4lb penalty but still looks well-treated based on that last run. If he reproduces the same turn of foot, he should take all the beating.

2️⃣ 2nd Place Prediction: Darlo Pride

Trainer: Michael Dods | Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Key Form: C&D winner who ran a fine second at Newcastle over 5f last time, proving he's in great form.
Why: Consistent performer at this level, and the drop back to Wolverhampton should play to his strengths. Drawn well in stall 1 for a bold bid.

3️⃣ 3rd Place Prediction: Rosenpur

Trainer: Jennie Candlish | Jockey: George Wood
Key Form: Won twice already this year, including last time over this C&D despite a troubled run.
Why: Tough and in-form sprinter, though now carrying a 5lb penalty. Still, his recent wins prove he's thriving, and another big effort is expected.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Bear Rock

Trainer: R Havlin | Jockey: Unknown
Key Form: Lightly raced and put in a career-best performance here last month when second in a novice race over 6f.
Why: Makes handicap debut and looks potentially well-treated. If taking another step forward, he could be a dark horse in this race.

🏇 18:30 Wolverhampton (7f Stakes)

1️⃣ Win Selection: You Are Everything

Trainer: Tony Carroll | Jockey: Luke Morris
Key Form: Hasn't had much luck in running recently but has been running well over shorter trips. A return to 7f should suit better.
Why: Strong finishing style suggests this trip is ideal, and with a clearer passage, she can go very close against modest opposition.

2️⃣ 2nd Place Prediction: Bernie The Bear

Trainer: Linda Perratt | Jockey: Paddy Bradley
Key Form: Finished second over C&D to Ajrad last time out, proving he handles conditions well.
Why: Consistent at this level and well-drawn to get a good position early. Looks a solid place contender again.

3️⃣ 3rd Place Prediction: Ajrad

Trainer: Rod Millman | Jockey: Lewis Edmunds
Key Form: C&D winner last month, though flopped at Kempton last time.
Why: Inconsistent but clearly capable, especially back at this course where he thrives. If on a going day, he’s a danger to all.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Miss Calculation

Trainer: Stella Barclay | Jockey: Jason Hart
Key Form: Second last time out at Southwell over 6f, staying on well late.
Why: This step up in trip might bring out more improvement, and she has the ability to get involved if settling early.

🏇 19:00 Wolverhampton (7f Stks)

1️⃣ Win Selection: Seas Of Elzaam

Trainer: John Butler | Jockey: Daniel Muscutt
Key Form: Finished a strong second at Lingfield last time out, conceding first run but closing well. A course winner, he has the experience and consistency to make a big impact here.
Why: With a solid effort in a similar race recently and Daniel Muscutt retaining the ride, he looks well-placed to get back to winning ways. The market confidence is strong, and he should be right in the mix at the finish.

2️⃣ 2nd Place Prediction: Match Anthem

Trainer: P. Charalambous & J. Clutterbuck | Jockey: Luke Morris
Key Form: In good form, a recent C&D winner and a strong second at Chelmsford over 6f last time out. Has been running consistently well in this grade.
Why: His ability to stay competitive, especially over this trip, makes him a solid place contender. The visor seems to be helping his focus, and Luke Morris knows how to get the best out of him.

3️⃣ 3rd Place Prediction: Heerathetrack

Trainer: Mark Usher | Jockey: Tyler Heard
Key Form: Placed in his last two starts, including a decent third at Kempton over 1m where he wasn’t ideally positioned.
Why: He’s holding his form well and stays this trip strongly. If he gets a better racing position than last time, he could be challenging late on.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Evoluir

Trainer: Micky Hammond | Jockey: Aiden Brookes
Key Form: Respectable efforts at Southwell, including a third-place finish two starts back. Capable of picking up pieces late.
Why: Still unexposed at this level and has shown glimpses of potential. If the pace collapses late, he could run on into a place at big odds.

🏇 19:30 Wolverhampton (1m4f Stks)

1️⃣ Win Selection: Honrado

Trainer: Jack Doughty | Jockey: Jack Doughty
Key Form: Ran a cracking race last time at Lingfield, finishing a strong second in first-time cheekpieces. Looked much improved for the headgear and was clear of the remainder.
Why: This looks an easier race, and with the cheekpieces retained, he can build on that effort. Hasn’t been with the yard long and could be progressing at the right time.

2️⃣ 2nd Place Prediction: Busby

Trainer: Cam Hardie | Jockey: Cam Hardie
Key Form: Four-time course winner who was a game second at Newcastle last time. Stays well and returns to a track where he’s enjoyed success.
Why: With stamina proven over this trip and a solid recent run behind him, he’s a strong player. The return of the visor could help sharpen him up further.

3️⃣ 3rd Place Prediction: Zooks

Trainer: Billy Loughnane | Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Key Form: Consistent in similar events, finishing second at Southwell over this trip last time out. Getting closer to a breakthrough win.
Why: Clearly has the ability at this level and has been trading low in-running, suggesting a win is near. Should be right in the mix again.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Fascinating Lips

Trainer: T P Queally | Jockey: T P Queally
Key Form: Has shown ability over shorter trips, now stepping back up in distance. Blinkers go on for the first time, which could bring improvement.
Why: A well-handicapped horse with the potential to surprise if the blinkers work their magic. A strong pace could see him finish late into a place.

🏇 20:00 Wolverhampton (1m4f Stks)

1️⃣ Win Selection: Zafaan

Trainer: Charlie Clover | Jockey: Sean Levey
Key Form: Narrowly denied in a classified event over this trip at Southwell last time out. Placed twice over hurdles before returning to the Flat in good form.
Why: He’s clearly thriving under his new yard, and that strong effort at Southwell suggests he’s knocking on the door. A repeat of that performance makes him the one to beat.

2️⃣ 2nd Place Prediction: Spartan Times

Trainer: Jennie Candlish | Jockey: George Wood
Key Form: Lightly raced and finished a solid third over 9.5f here last time. The step up in trip should bring further improvement.
Why: Less exposed than most of these, he’s shaping like a stayer and gets first-time cheekpieces to sharpen him up. Big chance of being in the frame.

3️⃣ 3rd Place Prediction: Limelight

Trainer: Michael Keady | Jockey: Kieran Shoemark
Key Form: Ran a strong race when third at Lingfield (1m2f) on stable debut. Stepping up in trip, which could unlock further improvement.
Why: A well-bred type who seems to be finding his form, and Shoemark is a positive booking. Could be staying on late for a place.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: National Health

Trainer: Olly Murphy | Jockey: Rob Hornby
Key Form: Runner-up over 9.5f here last time, shaping as if further would suit. First-time cheekpieces helped, and he retains them.
Why: Trainer Olly Murphy is adept at improving staying types, and the way he finished last time suggests this longer trip could bring out even more.

🏇 20:30 Wolverhampton (1m Hcap)

1️⃣ Win Selection: King Of Speed

Trainer: Mark Loughnane | Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Key Form: C&D winner in November and a strong second at Kempton last week, finishing well. Proven at this level and remains in solid form.
Why: He’s the most reliable performer in this field, in great form, and back at a track where he has won before. The booking of Billy Loughnane adds confidence, and he should be tough to beat.

2️⃣ 2nd Place Prediction: Marioento

Trainer: George Boughey | Jockey: Fred Daly
Key Form: Lightly raced and ran an improved fourth over C&D last time out. Likely to progress further for a top yard.
Why: Still unexposed and stepping forward with each start. If he improves again, he could give the favourite something to think about.

3️⃣ 3rd Place Prediction: Snooze Lane

Trainer: Sarah Hollinshead | Jockey: Gina Mangan
Key Form: Four-time course winner, back down to a workable mark. Hasn’t been seen for 10 weeks but capable of running well fresh.
Why: He knows his way around here, and with a bit of luck in running, he could sneak into the frame off a competitive rating.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Conquest Of Power

Trainer: Mark Usher | Jockey: Paddy Bradley
Key Form: Solid second at Newcastle over 6f last time and now significantly up in trip. Cheekpieces go back on.
Why: The step up in trip is an unknown, but if he stays, he could spring a surprise. A lively outsider for each-way players.