🏇 Thrills on Turf & Under the Lights! Chelmsford & Afternoon Meetings - 13/02/25

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
19th to 25th January 2025
Starting Bankroll £30 (24 days)
Top Up to Bankroll £30 12.02.25

Wk 1 £35 Wk 2 £32.01 Wk 3 -£18.12

WEEK 4 £36.25
Sun - -£07.50
Mon - £02.17
Tue - -£07.50
Wed - £07.50
Thrs - £00.00
Fri - £00.00
Sat - £0.00

Note from Coldjack: total wiped out again. the first top-up of £30 has been made and the strategy will roll on.
We will do better... when we go again!

Trixie @4 Lines

Patent @7 Lines


Stakes £7.50 Winning £0.00 (P/L) losing £0.00
Modest returns for the 'Trickey Trixie'
Patent punting for the 'zsar bomba' of booms!
(1pt = £1 Pick Your Own Point Level & Runners)

Comprehensive Critique & Debrief of Pre-Race Predictions

Now that I have both the pre-race selections and the results, I will break down the performance of the selections across all bets, highlighting successes, misses, and key takeaways for future betting strategies.

Trixie #1 (Main Bet - More Reliable Handicapped Runners)

🏇 Race 1 - 14:15 Newcastle (2m1f Novices' Handicap Hurdle)

Selection: ✅ Crystal Glance
Result: Unplaced (Did not finish in top four)
Winner: That One (14/1)
Race Analysis: Crystal Glance was backed as a well-handicapped horse dropping in class, but the race result suggests she failed to deliver. That One, a 14/1 outsider, capitalised on the handicap debut angle—an angle that was highlighted in the preview as a potential threat. Mister Smarty, another shortlisted contender, managed to finish third, proving his place credentials were sound.

Critique: While the logic for Crystal Glance was solid, she may have lacked race fitness after a break. The wildcard pick "That One" won the race at a big price, so the shortlist was strong even if the main selection underperformed.

🏇 Race 2 - 14:55 Clonmel (2m3f Handicap Hurdle)

Selection: ✅ Phoenix Cowboy
Result: 4th place (Did not place but ran respectably)
Winner: Ar Nos Na Gaoithe (17/2)

Race Analysis: Phoenix Cowboy ran an honest race, finishing fourth, but couldn't match the turn of foot of Ar Nos Na Gaoithe, who had been highlighted in the shortlist as a strong each-way player. This winner had quietly progressive form and took advantage of the drying ground conditions.

Critique: Phoenix Cowboy justified inclusion but was simply not the best-handicapped horse on the day. However, Ar Nos Na Gaoithe was on the radar, meaning an each-way saver bet would have been ideal.

🏇 Race 3 - 15:25 Newcastle (2m4f Handicap Hurdle)

Selection: ✅ Authorized Mission
Result: Unplaced
Winner: Punxsutawney Phil (10/1)

Race Analysis: Authorized Mission did not run up to expectations, while Aire Spray, a shortlisted contender, finished third, reinforcing the logic behind the shortlist. However, Punxsutawney Phil, an unconsidered 10/1 shot, proved well-handicapped on the day.

Critique: Another solid shortlist, but the main selection underperformed. Authorized Mission was well-backed in the market but didn’t travel as well as expected.

Trixie #1 Verdict:

❌ 0/3 Correct

• The logic was sound, and two shortlisted horses placed or won.

• Crystal Glance and Authorized Mission underperformed.

• Ar Nos Na Gaoithe was highlighted but not as the main selection.

• A small each-way saver on the right shortlist horses could have salvaged profits.

Trixie #2: The Patent (Higher-Risk Play)

🏇 Race 1 - 16:00 Newcastle (2m Handicap Chase)

Selection: ✅ Ensel Du Perche
Result: Unplaced
Winner: Demoiselle Kap (5/6 Fav)

Race Analysis: Ensel Du Perche failed to match Demoiselle Kap, who was included in the shortlist as a strong win contender. This race went to plan in terms of predicting the winner, but the main selection failed to fire.

Critique: The right shortlisted horse won the race, but Ensel Du Perche was not the best pick.

🏇 Race 2 - 18:30 Chelmsford City (6f Handicap)

Selection: ✅ Lessay
Result: Unplaced
Winner: Rebel Empire

Race Analysis: Lessay was a big disappointment despite looking well-handicapped beforehand. Rebel Empire, who was highlighted as a danger, won the race.

Critique: Again, the right race analysis was made, but the wrong selection was preferred. Rebel Empire was clearly a better-form pick.

🏇 Race 3 - 19:30 Chelmsford City (7f Handicap)

Selection: ✅ Missile Mac
Result: Unplaced
Winner: Baileys Honeymoon

Race Analysis: Missile Mac failed to fire, but Baileys Honeymoon, who was tipped as a strong second-place finisher, actually won the race.

Critique: Once more, the key horse won the race, but the main selection did not perform.

Patent Verdict:

❌ 0/3 Correct

• The correct winners were on the shortlist but not the main picks.

• If Rebel Empire and Baileys Honeymoon were backed, profits could have been made.

Final Summary & Learnings

Overall Strike Rate: 0/6 Main Picks Correct

• Shortlisted Horses Won 3 of the 6 Races

• 2 Shortlisted Runners Placed

• Main Picks Performed Below Par

Key Takeaways

1. Shortlisting was strong, but primary selections were poor. Several highlighted shortlist horses won races.

2. Alternative each-way betting could have mitigated losses. Ar Nos Na Gaoithe and Aire Spray were value bets that placed or won.

3. Need to refine final selection process. While shortlisted winners were found, the main picks weren’t the best handicapped horses.

What to Improve for Next Time

✔ Stronger Market Sensitivity: More attention to last-minute drifters/steamers.
✔ Trusting the Shortlist More: Selecting between 2-3 top horses rather than committing to just one.
✔ Each-Way Angles: Adding each-way coverage on longer-priced shortlist runners.

Final Verdict:

The overall day was a loss on the main bets, but there was enough information in the shortlist to pick out three winners. The key for next time is refining the final selection from the shortlist, which would have significantly improved profits.

Pre Race Predictions

Trixie Bet #1: The Consistency Play

Objective: Low-risk, high-probability selections.

Selections:

🏇 Race 1 - 14:15 Newcastle (2m1f Novices' Handicap Hurdle)

✅ Crystal Glance

• Trainer: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero | Jockey: Henry Brooke

• Form: Won two hurdle starts before finishing second to a well-handicapped rival in November. Below-par when tried over further at Aintree, but this is a weaker race.

• Reasoning: Drops back in class and distance, which should suit. Progressive profile with excuses last time out.

🏇 Race 2 - 14:55 Clonmel (2m3f Handicap Hurdle)

✅ Phoenix Cowboy

• Trainer: Michael Winters | Jockey: Mr A. Burke-Ott

• Form: Seventh over 2m7f at Punchestown, looking unsuited by the trip. Now runs off a career-low mark.

• Reasoning: A strong record at this trip and has dropped to a winnable handicap mark. Trainer has won this race before.

🏇 Race 3 - 15:25 Newcastle (2m4f Handicap Hurdle)

✅ Authorized Mission

• Trainer: Chris Grant | Jockey: William Maggs

• Form: Bolted up over 2m6f at Newcastle last time, traveling strongly. Drops in trip slightly, but retains proven stamina.

• Reasoning: Still on the up and remains ahead of the handicapper. If he runs to his last performance, he should take plenty of beating.

💰 Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆ (4/5)

📝 Bet Type: Trixie (3 Doubles + 1 Treble) – 4 total bets.

🎯 Expected Outcome Breakdown:

• Two winners → Small profit or break-even.

• Three winners → Strong return on stake.

Trixie Bet #2: The All-Ways Patent (Higher-Risk Play)

Objective: Higher-risk, value selections.

🏇 Race 1 - 16:00 Newcastle (2m Handicap Chase)

✅ Ensel Du Perche

• Trainer: Stella Barclay | Jockey: David Noonan

• Form: Won last time at Catterick, beating two subsequent winners. Only 3lb higher in the weights.

• Reasoning: Holds strong, improving form and arrives in peak condition. Looks well-treated still.

🏇 Race 2 - 18:30 Chelmsford City (6f Handicap)

✅ Lessay

• Trainer: Ed Dunlop | Jockey: Rossa Ryan

• Form: Third at Wolverhampton over 7f last time, keeping on well despite a poor position.

• Reasoning: Drops back to 6f, which could be key. The recent visor application has helped, and Rossa Ryan is a notable booking.

🏇 Race 3 - 19:30 Chelmsford City (7f Handicap)

✅ Missile Mac

• Trainer: George Boughey | Jockey: Billy Loughnane

• Form: Third over 7f at Wolverhampton last time, dropping 1lb in the weights today.

• Reasoning: In-form and should appreciate this trip again. Tongue strap retained, suggesting improvement is expected.

💰 Confidence Rating: ★★★☆☆ (3/5)

📝 Bet Type: Patent (3 Singles + 3 Doubles + 1 Treble) – 7 total bets.

🎯 Expected Outcome Breakdown:

• One winner → Covers most of the stake.

• Two winners → Brings profit.

• Three winners → Generates a strong return.

Final Summary

✔ Trixie #1: Reliable, well-handicapped horses in winnable races.
✔ Trixie #2: Value selections with upside potential but some risks.

📌 Gamble Responsibly!

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which 'obby Picks (dropping Hs since the dog chewed my denture) are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.
Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

Selections

🏇 Race 1 - 14:15 Newcastle (2m1f Novices' Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Crystal Glance

Trainer: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero | Jockey: Henry Brooke
Key Form: Won first two hurdle starts impressively before chasing home a well-treated rival in November. Below par when upped in trip at Aintree, but this is an easier assignment.
Why: A progressive mare who had excuses when beaten at Aintree in a stronger race. Returning from a short break, she's back down in trip and class—ideal conditions to bounce back to winning ways.

2️⃣ Benefit Ben

Trainer: Adam Nicol | Jockey: William Maggs
Key Form: Landed a gamble last time at Sedgefield, controlling the race from the front in first-time visor. Carries a penalty but remains dangerous.
Why: If he gets a soft lead again, he could be tough to peg back. His form is improving, and a repeat of his last performance puts him right in the mix.

3️⃣ Mister Smarty

Trainer: Tina Jackson | Jockey: Alan Doyle
Key Form: Won twice this winter, including over C&D, and ran respectably in defeat when third here over further last time.
Why: Still in top form and has proven he handles the track and trip well. Looks a solid place contender with a strong finishing effort.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: That One

Trainer: James Walton | Jockey: C O’Farrell
Key Form: Showed plenty of promise in novice hurdles, making strong headway last time before fading late. Handicap debut today.
Why: An unexposed type with potential improvement now in handicap company. Could be a surprise package if he settles and finishes strongly.

🏇 Race 2 - 14:55 Clonmel (2m3f Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Phoenix Cowboy

Trainer: Michael Winters | Jockey: Mr A. Burke-Ott
Key Form: Solid effort when seventh over 2m7f at Punchestown, looking unsuited by the longer trip. Has now dropped below a 100 rating for the first time over hurdles.
Why: A proven performer in these conditions, now running at a more suitable trip. Trainer has won this race before, and the horse looks primed for a big run at a backable price.

2️⃣ Aclass

Trainer: J. P. Flavin | Jockey: Mr J. W. Hendrick
Key Form: Back-to-back placed efforts in competitive handicaps, most recently third at Gowran over 2m. Looks ready for this extra distance.
Why: A consistent performer who is knocking on the door for a win. His recent form suggests he's well-handicapped and remains a strong contender.

3️⃣ Ar Nos Na Gaoithe

Trainer: P. J. Rothwell | Jockey: Miss P. Elvin
Key Form: Shaped much better than the bare result when sixth at Gowran, having previously finished a close fourth at Punchestown.
Why: Another who has been running well without winning, and with a bit of improvement over this longer trip, could sneak into the places at an each-way price.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Sheriffhill

Trainer: Terence O'Brien | Jockey: Mr D. Allen
Key Form: Lightly raced but showed promise in mid-division at Limerick when staying on late over 2m5f.
Why: A dark horse who has been learning his trade in maiden hurdles. Down in trip and with more experience, he could outrun his odds if finding improvement.

🏇 Race 3 - 15:25 Newcastle (2m4f Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Authorized Mission

Trainer: Chris Grant | Jockey: William Maggs
Key Form: Bolted up over 2m6f at this venue last time, travelling strongly throughout. Proven stamina should help him remain competitive back at 2½m.
Why: A lightly-raced type who is progressing nicely and still looks ahead of the handicapper. If he builds on his last win, he should be tough to beat.

2️⃣ Aire Spray

Trainer: Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith | Jockey: Tom Midgley
Key Form: Bidding for a hat-trick after winning impressively at Wetherby and Carlisle over similar trips. Extra furlong here should suit.
Why: Improving with each run and has looked dominant in his last two wins. Despite the slight rise in class, his form suggests he’s still on the up.

3️⃣ Galahad Threepwood

Trainer: Ewan Whillans | Jockey: Craig Nichol
Key Form: Ran a solid race when third over 2m at this track last time, beaten only by two well-treated rivals.
Why: Looks well-treated off the same mark and should appreciate stepping up in trip. A strong each-way contender.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: My Friend Yeats

Trainer: Rebecca Menzies | Jockey: Nathan Moscrop
Key Form: Consistently running well since the application of headgear, including a solid fourth last time when hampered at a key stage.
Why: He’s been unlucky in running but has shown enough ability to suggest he’s up to winning at this level. If he gets a clean passage, he could go close.

🏇 Race 4 - 16:00 Newcastle (2m Handicap Chase)

1️⃣ Demoiselle Kap

Trainer: Jennie Candlish | Jockey: Sean Quinlan
Key Form: Landed a comfortable win over hurdles at Sedgefield last week and races off the same mark here back over fences.
Why: A well-handicapped mare who bounced back to form impressively. If she repeats that effort over fences, she should prove hard to beat.

2️⃣ Ensel Du Perche

Trainer: Stella Barclay | Jockey: David Noonan
Key Form: Won last time at Catterick, beating two subsequent winners. Proven at this level.
Why: Holding his form well and arrives in peak condition. Only 3 lb higher than his last win, so he’s a strong contender.

3️⃣ Flash Du Pistolet

Trainer: Stuart Coltherd | Jockey: Sam Coltherd
Key Form: Consistent runner-up who again shaped well last time despite some errors.
Why: A solid each-way player who keeps knocking on the door. If he jumps better, he could be right in the mix.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Six One Nine

Trainer: Chris Grant | Jockey: Danny McMenamin
Key Form: Three chase wins last season but yet to hit top gear this term.
Why: Drops in class and has a decent record at the track. If he finds last season’s form, he’s overpriced.

🏇 Race 5 - 18:30 Chelmsford City (6f Handicap)

1️⃣ Win Selection: Lessay

Trainer: Ed Dunlop | Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Key Form: Shaped well when third at Wolverhampton over 7f last time, rallying despite being poorly placed. Retains the visor that sparked improvement.
Why: Lessay has been knocking on the door, and the drop to 6f could be the key. He’s been competitive in stronger races, and Rossa Ryan is a notable booking. If the pace is strong, expect him to finish strongly.

2️⃣ 2nd Place Prediction: Rebel Empire

Trainer: Richard Hannon | Jockey: Joe Leavy
Key Form: Three wins from his last five runs, including a C&D success 33 days ago. Carries a 3lb higher mark but still unexposed this winter.
Why: Rebel Empire has been thriving on the all-weather, and his recent win over this course and distance shows he handles conditions well. The 3lb rise looks fair, and he should be right in the mix again.

3️⃣ 3rd Place Prediction: Above

Trainer: Robert Cowell | Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Key Form: Newcastle winner over 5f in January and a strong second last time out. Back up to 6f with a handy draw.
Why: This experienced sprinter is in good form and has developed a strong partnership with Billy Loughnane. The step back to 6f is a plus, and he’s likely to be finishing well.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: El Bufalo

Trainer: Dylan Cunha | Jockey: Rhys Clutterbuck
Key Form: Respectable third at Newcastle over 5f, keeping on well. Has shown promise at 6f previously.
Why: El Bufalo looks a touch overpriced given his consistency. His recent runs suggest he could be primed for a big performance, especially if he gets a strong pace to aim at.

🏇 Race 6 - 19:30 Chelmsford City (7f Handicap)

1️⃣ Win Selection: Missile Mac

Trainer: George Boughey | Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Key Form: Bounced back to form when third over 7f at Wolverhampton last time out. Drops 1lb and retains the tongue strap.
Why: Missile Mac’s latest performance suggests he’s coming into form at the right time. The return to 7f suits, and with Billy Loughnane taking the ride, he should be primed for a big run off this mark.

2️⃣ 2nd Place Prediction: Baileys Honeymoon

Trainer: Lemos De Souza | Jockey: Lewis Edmunds
Key Form: Promising reappearance when fifth at Southwell over 6f, finishing strongly. The return to 7f is a major plus.
Why: A lightly-raced filly who shaped well last time, staying on late. The step up in trip could unlock improvement, and she rates a big danger on her polytrack debut.

3️⃣ 3rd Place Prediction: Rumba Bay

Trainer: David Evans | Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Key Form: Made a fair debut for new connections when sixth at Wolverhampton (7f), likely to come forward from that.
Why: Rumba Bay is lightly raced and has been campaigned at a higher level in Ireland. She should strip fitter for her stable debut and could show more now switched to polytrack.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Navarre Special

Trainer: Darryll Holland | Jockey: Luke Morris
Key Form: Encouraging fourth over 5f here last time, running on well. Now up to 7f and dropped 3lb.
Why: This filly hasn’t had much luck but looks well-handicapped now. The addition of eyeshields and a hood could help her focus, and she may be worth chancing at a bigger price.

🏇 Race 7- 20:30 Chelmsford City (1m2f Handicap)

1️⃣ Win Selection: Solanna

Trainer: John Butler | Jockey: Daniel Muscutt
Key Form: Runner-up over C&D last time, only beaten by a well-ridden rival. Previously won at Kempton in December.
Why: Solanna is in solid form and has been holding his form well over this trip. He wasn’t ideally placed last time but still finished strongly. A repeat effort makes him a big contender.

2️⃣ 2nd Place Prediction: Switchel

Trainer: Hughie Morrison | Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Key Form: C&D winner and consistent performer at this level. Not beaten far when fourth here last time. Blinkers go on for the first time.
Why: Switchel knows this track well and is tactically versatile. The application of blinkers could eke out improvement, and with Rossa Ryan in the saddle, he should be involved in the finish.

3️⃣ 3rd Place Prediction: Fihrayn

Trainer: Richard Hannon | Jockey: Joe Leavy
Key Form: Blinkers applied last time saw an improved effort when third at Kempton over a mile. Now steps back up in trip.
Why: Fihrayn has hinted at needing this longer trip and showed promise in first-time blinkers. If he settles well early, he could stay on for a place at a fair price.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Jenson Benson

Trainer: Shaun Lycett | Jockey: Gina Mangan
Key Form: Four-time course winner who has been running respectably in similar races.
Why: He knows Chelmsford like the back of his hand and can be relied on to put in a solid shift. His recent runs have been respectable, and he could spring a surprise if the race is run to suit.