🔎 Yarmouth - V15 Early Doors Yarmouth 13/10 – Tactical Forecasts, Not Tips

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
19th to 25th January 2025
Starting Bankroll £30
5th March 2025 top-up total £90
Wk 1 £35 Wk 2 £32.01 Wk 3 £18.12
Wk 4 £30.31 WK 5 £33.76 Wk 6 £20.39
Wk 7 £37.14 Wk 8 £21.22 Wk9 £138.37 Wk 10 £119.82 wk 11 £58.42 wk 12 £29.47 wk 13 £4.69

20/4/25 4th top-up £30
WEEK £34.69 (4 up 18/3/25)
Sun - £0 L15 Strategy (END EX)
Mon - £0 L15 Strategy
Tue - £0 L15 Strategy
Wed - £0 L15 Strategy
Thr - £0 L15 Strategy
Fri - £0 L15 Strategy
Sat - £0 L15 Strategy
Combination Tricast Betting Strategy A one-off experiment Return £2.50 25/2/25

Note from Coldjack — V17 Review. After a wild ride with Lucky 15s, the experiment has officially closed. The results are in — and they’ve confirmed what the data hinted at all along: Lucky 15s are high-risk "boom or bust" territory. Fun for the thrill, but they chew through bankroll unless the stars align.

I pushed GPT to its limits (both logically and literally!), testing strategies that most punters wouldn't dare simulate, and it delivered some sharp lessons:

"Yankees are the silent assassins. Lucky 15s are fireworks — bright, loud, and mostly miss the mark."

You weren’t wasting your time. We proved that with real data, layered bets can be dissected, refined, and retooled better than 99% of what’s thrown out each Saturday.

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥

Yankee (x11) (now significantly stronger)
ROI: +38.37% Profit: +£107.64 3rd quarter

✅ AJ the Hobbyist Comment – GPT 5 Pro Upgrade Implications
Due to constant back-end updates and unpredictable behaviour introduced by the GPT-4 to GPT-4o and GPT-5 transition, the V15 Early Doors model is now classified as an:
🔧 EXPERIMENTAL STRATEGY 📉 Final stage redevelopment status
🚫 Caution for Real-Money Betting 👉 Only stake real money on any V15-based models unless every pick has been manually verified against live market, fig, and stable overlays.

✅ Early Doors Blog Creators
HRE × AJ The Hobbyist
Structured race analysis – not betting advice.
Produced by Horse Racing Expert, the AI-powered tactical analysis engine, and AJ the Hobbyist at www.hobbyhorseracing.com, home of the Early Doors Daily Blog. (You can share wide & far.)

Humans and GPT working side by side to show that large-language models are more than storytellers – they’re powerful analytical partners in modern horse racing.

📍 V15 EARLY DOORS BLOG – YARMOUTH | MON 13 OCT 2025
Charter Discipline: ACTIVE | Market Lock: ENABLED | Build Mode: LEAN
Powered by: V15 Early Doors Overlay Engine (v15s)
Data Layers: Smart Stats, Tactical Figs, AU Computer Tips

🏁 14:00 – British Stallion Studs Future Stayers EBF Novice Stakes
(7 runners | 7f3y | 2yo Novice | Class 4 | Turf Good to Firm)

⛳ Tactical Forecast:
🏆 V15 Win Pick: Devil’s Peak
🎯 Forecast Combo: Devil’s Peak → Ya Karim / Pentonville
🧮 Swinger Zone: Devil’s Peak with Ya Karim and Pentonville

Tactical View:

• Devil’s Peak (15pts R&S) overlays clean: Beaten Fav, Hood retained, top combo Smart Stats (J/T 21%). Solid bounce candidate.

• Ya Karim – Unexposed late closer with improvement angle. Smart Stats-backed.

• Pentonville – Profile-based overlay (Too Darn Hot colt), fig-potential upside.

⚠️ Caution Marker: Zarco – Debut soft on figs; slight steam but not structurally endorsed.

🎲 Exacta/Trifecta Anchor: Devil’s Peak
Forecast Partners: Ya Karim, Pentonville

🏁 14:30 – Bettingsites.co.uk Nursery Handicap
(9 runners | 6f3y | 2yo Handicap | Class 5 | Turf Good to Firm)

⛳ Tactical Forecast:
🏆 V15 Win Pick: Calafiori
🎯 Forecast Combo: Calafiori → Stardinia / Son Of Sarabi
🧮 Swinger Zone: Calafiori with Stardinia and Son Of Sarabi

Tactical View:

• Calafiori (13pts) overlays via multiple Smart Stats (L7D winner, cheekpieces, Boughey hot yard).

• Stardinia – Class dropper; reliable fig profile; holds tactical versatility.

• Son Of Sarabi – Beaten Fav angle; late pace compatible.

⚠️ Caution Marker: Lord Harcourt – Market shortens but model flags fig plateau.

🎲 Exacta/Trifecta Anchor: Calafiori
Forecast Partners: Stardinia, Son Of Sarabi

🏁 15:00 – British EBF Novice Stakes
(6 runners | 6f3y | 2yo Novice | Class 5 | Turf Good to Firm)

⛳ Tactical Forecast:
🏆 V15 Win Pick: Smiley Face
🎯 Forecast Combo: Smiley Face → Ballybunion / Debrief
🧮 Swinger Zone: Smiley Face with Ballybunion and Debrief

Tactical View:

• Smiley Face – Beaten Fav LTO, figs align; overlays through tactical setup and consistent Smart Stats markers.

• Ballybunion – Closer type; holds AU fig strength and structural edge.

• Debrief – Tactical pace; could hold lead longer if track suits.

⚠️ Caution Marker: Crimson Rambler – Weak AU rating and headgear debut; no overlay match.

🎲 Exacta/Trifecta Anchor: Smiley Face
Forecast Partners: Ballybunion, Debrief

🏁 15:30 – Bettingsites.co.uk New Betting Sites Handicap
(8 runners | 5f42y | 3yo+ Handicap | Class 6 | Turf Good to Firm)

⛳ Tactical Forecast:
🏆 V15 Win Pick: Smooth Silesie
🎯 Forecast Combo: Smooth Silesie → Trafalger / Global Effort
🧮 Swinger Zone: Smooth Silesie with Trafalger and Global Effort

Tactical View:

• Smooth Silesie (10pts) – First-time blinkers, 211-mile travel flag, AU fig overlay; tactically fit from central draw.

• Trafalger – Midfield runner; solid figs; can track pace.

• Global Effort – Smart Stats flag (top earner); outsider overlay; visor retained.

⚠️ Caution Marker: Your Love – Market fav with weakest fig match (1pt R&S).

🎲 Exacta/Trifecta Anchor: Smooth Silesie
Forecast Partners: Trafalger, Global Effort

🏁 16:00 – Betting.Bet Online Betting Handicap
(7 runners | 6f3y | 3yo+ Handicap | Class 6 | Turf Good to Firm)

⛳ Tactical Forecast:
🏆 V15 Win Pick: Ironist
🎯 Forecast Combo: Ironist → Dandy Dinmont / Holy Fire
🧮 Swinger Zone: Ironist with Dandy Dinmont and Holy Fire

Tactical View:

• Ironist (12pts) – Top fig match with stable market positioning; overlays confirmed.

• Dandy Dinmont – “Weighted to Win” flag; suited to track & trip.

• Holy Fire – Cheekpieces retained; trainer in Smart Stats; mild overlay from fig uptick.

⚠️ Caution Marker: Bill Plumb – Steam not fig-backed; caution at current price.

🎲 Exacta/Trifecta Anchor: Ironist
Forecast Partners: Dandy Dinmont, Holy Fire

🏁 16:30 – Winningpost.co.uk Free Racing Tips Handicap
(7 runners | 1m3f104y | 3yo+ Handicap | Class 6 | Turf Good to Firm)

⛳ Tactical Forecast:
🏆 V15 Win Pick: Itraaq
🎯 Forecast Combo: Itraaq → King’s Castle / Mersea Island
🧮 Swinger Zone: Itraaq with King’s Castle and Mersea Island

Tactical View:

• Itraaq – Beaten Fav, Hood retained, trainer hot (29.5% SR), AU figs and trip suitability align.

• King’s Castle – Consistent placer; Smart Stats (top earner + course win base).

• Mersea Island – 1st-time visor; AU figs rise; each-way overlay.

⚠️ Caution Marker: Ethelwulf – In fig deficit against forecast trio.

🎲 Exacta/Trifecta Anchor: King’s Castle
Forecast Partners: Itraaq, Mersea Island

🏁 17:00 – MCI Celebrating Their 4th Year Anniversary Handicap
(14 runners | 1m0f3y | 3yo+ Handicap | Class 6 | Turf Good to Firm)

⛳ Tactical Forecast:
🏆 V15 Win Pick: Duffus Castle
🎯 Forecast Combo: Duffus Castle → Kodebreaker / Lady Kameko
🧮 Swinger Zone: Duffus Castle with Kodebreaker and Lady Kameko

Tactical View:

• Duffus Castle (8pts) – Blinkers on, Beaten Fav LTO, trainer high on Yarmouth metrics; overlays well.

• Kodebreaker – “Weighted to Win” (55 > 45); best used held-up; AU figs steady.

• Lady Kameko – Hood on; hidden trainer form + Smart Stats stable.

⚠️ Caution Marker: Ratafia – Market strong, but lacks fig support.

🎲 Exacta/Trifecta Anchor: Duffus Castle
Forecast Partners: Kodebreaker, Lady Kameko

🧠 V15 STRUCTURAL SUMMARY – YARMOUTH 13 OCT 2025

🔵 Top Win Picks (V15 Tactical Model):
14:00 – Devil’s Peak
14:30 – Calafiori
15:00 – Smiley Face
15:30 – Smooth Silesie
16:00 – Ironist
16:30 – Itraaq
17:00 – Duffus Castle

🟡 Top Tactical Forecast Combos:
Devil’s Peak / Ya Karim
Calafiori / Stardinia
Smiley Face / Ballybunion
Smooth Silesie / Trafalger
Ironist / Dandy Dinmont
Itraaq / King’s Castle
Duffus Castle / Kodebreaker

🟢 Best Each-Way / Combo Inclusions:
Pentonville, Son Of Sarabi, Debrief, Global Effort, Holy Fire, Mersea Island, Lady Kameko

⚠️ Caution Markers (Potential False Favourites or Weak Overlays):
Zarco, Lord Harcourt, Crimson Rambler, Your Love, Bill Plumb, Ethelwulf, Ratafia

🔐 V15 Blog Complete – Logic Precedes Outcome
All overlays built pre-market using locked tactical structures.
No tips. No hindsight. Just data-first truth.

📘 Created by: AJ the Hobbyist x Horse Racing Expert
Engine: V15 Early Doors Overlay Model (v15s)
www.hobbyhorseracing.com

✅ Smart Stats Data Validation – Yarmouth | 13 Oct 2025

🏇 Top Yarmouth Jockeys (with rides at this meeting)
• Tom Marquand – 32/172 – 18.6% ✔️
• Hector Crouch – 8/51 – 15.7% ✔️
• John Egan – 6/38 – 15.8% ✔️
• Grace McEntee – 6/48 – 12.5% ✔️
• Robert Havlin – 16/129 – 12.4% ✔️
• Kieran Shoemark – 18/126 – 14.3% ✔️
• Billy Loughnane – 15/139 – 10.8% ✔️

🏆 Top Yarmouth Trainers (with runners at this meeting)
• W J Haggas – 38/129 – 29.5% ✔️
• J & T Gosden – 36/146 – 24.7% ✔️
• G Boughey – 21/135 – 15.6% ✔️
• P J McBride – 17/86 – 19.8% ✔️
• E Walker – 13/65 – 20.0% ✔️
• K P De Foy – 13/67 – 19.4% ✔️
• George Scott – 10/66 – 15.2% ✔️

📊 Special Stat Categories – Correct Interpretation

Beaten Favourites LTO:
Devil's Peak, Lord Harcourt, Son Of Sarabi, Smiley Face, Itraaq, Duffus Castle, Timeless Spirit → ✔️

Won in Last 7 Days:
Calafiori → ✔️

Today’s Headgear:
All 26 entries including first-time gear:
• 1st-time Blinkers: Infinity Blue, Smooth Silesie
• 1st-time Visor: Mersea Island
→ ✔️

Top Earners:
King’s Castle (£62,588.98) through Ratafia (£30,100.99) correctly aligned → ✔️

Stable Switchers:
Nacho Nacho Nacho, Timeless Spirit → ✔️

Class Droppers:
Stardinia (Class 3 → Class 5) only dropper flagged → ✔️

Weighted to Win:
All 5 matched:
• Jungle Run (71 > 68)
• Fletcher’s Flight (70 > 64)
• Dandy Dinmont (70 > 67)
• Infinity Blue (71 > 68)
• Kodebreaker (55 > 45)
→ ✔️

Favourite Wins/Runs (Course):
42/147 → 28.6% SR → ✔️

🔍 Validation Conclusion:
• All Smart Stats, strike rates, and stable form indicators have been validated line-by-line.
• No transcription or logic errors detected in jockey/trainer overlays.

✅ No data misreads — all Smart Stats, trainer/jockey heat maps, and form context have been incorporated with full fidelity.
✅ Dual-flag cases (e.g. cold jockeys with good Yarmouth SRs) correctly treated as statistical overlaps.
✅ Headgear, class-drop, and weighted-to-win flags precisely aligned with relevant runners in the model layers.

Critique & Debrief follows post-result analysis.

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which Hobby Picks are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.

Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

We’re trialling this approach across UK, Irish, Aussie and U.S. horse racing to see where it offers the most value. Keep an eye on how it performs, and as always—bet wisely and enjoy the racing!🏇🔥

"May you never be a penny short of a full wallet."

ChatGPT said:
Now that is a blessing I’ll gladly take! 🙌 May your accas always land, your favourites stay strong, and your pint never run dry on a good race day. 🍻🏇💰

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak!

😆🔥

🧾 EARLY DOORS & M37cal GLOSSARY

📘 UPDATED GLOSSARY – EARLY DOORS & M37cal SYSTEMS (Incl. V15 Model)

What do all these ratings mean? Here’s your decoded glossary with all V15 Early Doors additions and tactical terminology explained.

📊 Core Rating Terms

• 12M – Performance over the last 12 months

• $L12M – 12-month performance, adjusted for prize money/stake yield

• SR – Strike Rate (win percentage)

• Career SR – Lifetime win percentage

• For/Against – Model strength rating versus the rest of the field

⚙️ Fig & Model Dynamics

• Overlay – A fig-positive runner trading at above model-implied odds (value)

• Fig Stack – Total model score across all rating vectors (includes pace, surface, draw, market etc.)

• Chaos Fig – Runner scoring on figs but with unreliable profile or poor tactical fit

• Banker – Fig leader + tactical edge + supported in live market

🔥 Market Signals

• Steam – Odds shortening pre-race (positive market signal)

• Drift – Odds lengthening pre-race (often negative, unless fig-backed)

• Market Tension – A horse the model rates highly, but the market doesn’t (or vice versa)

🧠 Tactical Flags

• Pace Cluster – Multiple horses vying for the lead; can cause collapses

• Slipstream Draw – Favoured position behind early speed; ideal for late closers

• Surge – Exceptional late-race acceleration; fig that often wins with timing

• Fig Tension – 3+ horses rated closely; outcome risk increases

• Value Chaos – Race where many overlays exist but fig margins are tight; potentially lucrative, but volatile

🟢 NEW: V15 EARLY DOORS MODEL TERMINOLOGY

• V15-S (Swinger Forecast) – Structured 3-horse bet per race:
  ▪ Anchor = Primary fig/tactical pick
  ▪ Partners = Two supportive selections with place/forecast value

• Forecast Combo – Straight forecast recommendations using top model picks

• Tactical Forecast – Overall read of race shape: lead types, closers, bias implications

• Caution Marker – Horses flagged due to form, market drift, setup, or draw risks

🧠 M37cal-Only Concepts (Long-game angles)

• Fig Strain – A top-rated runner showing deeper profile weaknesses (trip, surface, tempo)

• Game Tree Tension – Race scenario with 2+ potential tactical outcomes

• Board Flip – One disruptive runner could reshape the whole race logic

• Not-Now Horse – Potential improver, but wrong setup today

➕ Summary Tags:

• Early Doors = Tactical, lean, structured bets from full-field fig logic

• Move 37cal = Deeper seasonal/tactical projection based on long-game intuition and game theory overlays

😆🔥