All-Weather Specialists Take Centre Stage! Lingfield & Kempton Betting Preview (05/03/25)

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
19th to 25th January 2025
Starting Bankroll £30 (28 days)
1st Top Up Bankroll £30 (10 days)
2nd Top Up Bankroll £30 (4 days)
3rd Top Up Bankroll £30 (3 days)
Wk 1 £35 Wk 2 £32.01 Wk 3 -£18.12
Wk 4 £30.31 WK 5 £33.76 Wk 6 £20.39

WEEK7 £35.08 (4th top-up)
Sun - -£3.12
Mon - -£7.00
Tue - £0.75
Wed - £4.44
Thrs - £
Fri - £
Sat - £
Combination Tricast Betting Strategy A one-off experiment Return £2.50 25/2/25

Note from Coldjack: The fourth top added after only five days. My accounting must be wrong somehow! Luckily betting is not taxed. So, we adapt and change the losing strategy and go again!

Betfair Sportsbook odds were placed at 12:30

Patent @7 Lines
Kitaro Kich | Handle With Care | Invincible Melody
Stake £3.50 (7 x £0.50)
Returns £55.75 returned £1.00

(Each Way) Trixie @8 Lines
Fullforward | Backer Bilk | Vince Lombardi
Stake £3.52 (8 x £0.44)
Returns £149.55 Returned £1.58

stakes £7.00 Winning £00.00 (P/L) losing £4.44
Modest returns for the 'Trickey Trixie'
Patent punting for the 'zsar bomba' of booms!
(1pt = £1 Pick Your Own Point Level & Runners)

Critique & Debrief: Lingfield & Kempton (05/03/25)

📊 Structured Bet Analysis: Patent & Trixie

Patent Win #1: Kitaro Kich, Handle With Care, Invincible Melody

💰 Stake: £3.50 (7 x £0.50)
🔄 Return: £1.00 (-£2.50 loss)

Breakdown:

1️⃣ Kitaro Kich 🏆 (WON, 1/1)

• Pre-race confidence: ★★★★★

• Actual performance: Justified favourite status, won comfortably.

• Verdict: Bang on the money. Strong pick, landed as expected.

2️⃣ Handle With Care ❌ (4th, 8/1)

• Pre-race confidence: ★★★★☆

• Actual performance: Decent run but never looked like winning.

• Verdict: Somewhat unlucky. Market drift suggested concerns. Maybe not as well-handicapped as assumed.

3️⃣ Invincible Melody ❌ (2nd, 4/1)

• Pre-race confidence: ★★★★☆

• Actual performance: Ran well but beaten 1.25L by Lady Manzor.

• Verdict: Good effort, just found one better. Perhaps Lady Manzor had more progression.

📌 Patent Summary:

• 1/3 winners = Minimal return (£1.00).

• Was it a bad bet? No. The expected outcome was 2 winners for a small profit, 3 for a strong profit—but we fell short.

• Key lesson: Handle With Care’s drift to 8/1 was a warning. Next time, trust late-market trends more.

(Each-Way) Trixie #2: Fullforward, Backer Bilk, Vince Lombardi

💰 Stake: £3.52 (8 x £0.44)
🔄 Return: £1.58 (-£1.94 loss)

Breakdown:

1️⃣ Fullforward 🥉 (3rd, 10/1) [E/W Return]

• Pre-race confidence: ★★★☆☆

• Actual performance: Ran well, placed at 10/1 for a small each-way return.

• Verdict: Positive. Played out as expected.

2️⃣ Backer Bilk 🥉 (3rd, 7/4F) [E/W Return]

• Pre-race confidence: ★★★☆☆

• Actual performance: Placed again, but favourite didn’t deliver the win.

• Verdict: Solid but uninspiring.

3️⃣ Vince Lombardi ❌ (Unplaced, 15/2)

• Pre-race confidence: ★★☆☆☆

• Actual performance: Weak run, no market confidence.

• Verdict: A miss. Should have followed market trends.

📌 Trixie Summary:

• 2 placed runners gave a small return (£1.58), but no winners meant no big payout.

• Key lesson: Avoiding short-priced place-only bets in an E/W Trixie—not enough upside.

🔍 Race-by-Race Breakdown

🏇 13:40 Lingfield (1m4f Apprentice Handicap)

Predictions vs. Result:

• Fullforward (Pre-race pick) → Finished 3rd (10/1) ✅ (Each-way hit)

• Cerulean Summer (Pedigree Pick) → Finished 2nd (10/3) ✅ (Placing)

✅ Analysis Held Up Well: Our picks hit the frame, but we missed the 12/1 winner (Donald Llewellyn). Strong showing nonetheless.

🏇 16:12 Lingfield (7f Handicap)

Predictions vs. Result:

• Kitaro Kich (Pre-race favourite) → WON (1/1) ✅

• Split Elevens (Recommended for places) → 2nd (12/1) ✅

• Runaround Sioux (Pre-race mention) → Unplaced ❌

💡 Verdict: Spot on! Kitaro Kich dominated, and Split Elevens landed a big 12/1 place. Best race of the day in terms of prediction accuracy.

🏇 16:55 Kempton (6f Handicap)

Predictions vs. Result:

• Handle With Care (Pre-race pick) → 4th (8/1) ❌

• Toughly (Pre-race favourite) → Unplaced ❌

💡 Verdict: Bad race for us. Handle With Care showed up but wasn’t strong enough. Macedonian (4/1) was a fair winner but went under the radar.

🏇 17:17 Lingfield (1m2f Handicap)

Predictions vs. Result:

• Backer Bilk (Pre-race pick) → 3rd (7/4F) ✅ (Each-way return)

• Sonic Pioneer (Recommended) → 2nd (10/3) ✅

💡 Verdict: Both key horses placed, but we missed the 17/2 winner (Flaine). Still a decent read on the race.

🏇 18:00 Kempton (7f Handicap)

Predictions vs. Result:

• Invincible Melody (Main pick) → 2nd (4/1) ✅

• Lady Manzor (Mentioned as a potential improver) → WON (15/2) ✅

💡 Verdict: Good read! Lady Manzor was identified as a danger, and Invincible Melody ran well. A win bet on Lady Manzor would have been a nice boost!

🏇 19:00 Kempton (7f Handicap)

Predictions vs. Result:

• Vince Lombardi (Pre-race selection) → Unplaced (15/2) ❌

• Ben Y Bryn (Mentioned) → 4th (15/2) ✅

• Tea Sea (Highlighted for each-way) → 3rd (4/1) ✅

💡 Verdict: We hit the frame but no winner. Al Ameen (13/2) surprised us!

📈 Key Takeaways & Adjustments

✅ What Went Right?

✔ Kitaro Kich was a standout banker and landed the win.
✔ Fullforward, Backer Bilk, & Sonic Pioneer placed well, giving some returns.
✔ Lady Manzor (15/2 winner) was identified as a progressive threat.

❌ What Went Wrong?

❌ Handle With Care and Vince Lombardi underperformed, market hinted at concerns.
❌ Missed a few winners like Macedonian (4/1) and Al Ameen (13/2).
❌ Patent bet lacked a second winner to turn a profit.

🔮 Strategy Adjustments Moving Forward

1️⃣ Follow Market Movements More Closely

• Handle With Care drifted from 5/2 to 8/1—should have been a warning.

• Backer Bilk was strong in the market but still beaten.

2️⃣ Target Stronger E/W Bets

• Trixie structure needs at least 1 bigger-priced winner to generate a return.

3️⃣ Improve Bankroll Management

• Consider reducing stakes on long shots unless market confidence is present.

🏆 Final Rating: 6.5/10

🔹 Some strong reads (Kitaro Kich, Fullforward, Sonic Pioneer), but we missed a few key winners.
🔹 Bankroll took a hit, but the approach remains solid with tweaks needed.
🔹 Next step? Apply market-driven refinements & focus on stronger each-way plays.

Pre-racing Preview Predictions

Patent Bet #1 - The Consistency Play

Selections chosen based on strong recent form, reliability, and minimal downside risk.

Selection 1: Kitaro Kich (16:12 Lingfield, 7f Handicap)

• Trainer: George Baker | Jockey: Tom Marquand

• Key Form: Won comfortably last time at Chelmsford (7f) six days ago. Well-in under a 5lb penalty.

• Why: Thriving in 2024 with two wins already, and the booking of Tom Marquand is a huge positive. Looks the most reliable pick.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★★★

• Odds Range: Likely 2.5-3.5 (5/2 - 5/1)

Selection 2: Handle With Care (16:55 Kempton, 6f Handicap)

• Trainer: Marco Botti | Jockey: Hollie Doyle

• Key Form: Placed in maidens last summer, showing promise. Now makes handicap debut after a break.

• Why: Unexposed and could be well-handicapped on her first start in a handicap. The booking of Hollie Doyle is a major positive, and she’s bred to improve with experience.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆

• Odds Range: Likely 3.5-5.5 (5/2 - 9/2)

Selection 3: Invincible Melody (18:00 Kempton, 7f Handicap)

• Trainer: Ralph Beckett | Jockey: Rossa Ryan

• Key Form: Finished second at Wolverhampton (7.2f) last time with first-time blinkers and a tongue tie, shaping like a future winner.

• Why: Progressive, unexposed in handicaps, and responded well to headgear last time. Looks ready to win.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆

• Odds Range: Likely 2.75-4.5 (7/4 - 9/2)

Bet Type: Patent Win

• 7 bets: 3 singles, 3 doubles, 1 treble

• Expected Outcome:

  • 2 winners → Small profit

  • 3 winners → Strong profit

Trixie Bet #2 - The All-Ways Patent (Higher-Risk Play)

Selections chosen based on potential upside but with risk factors.

Selection 1: Fullforward (13:40 Lingfield, 1m4f Apprentice Handicap)

• Trainer: Michael Madgwick | Jockey: Fred Daly

• Key Form: 2251423-6 – Placed in five of his last seven runs, including a win over 1m4f at Lingfield in November.

• Why: Consistent performer, stays the trip well, and has proven himself at this venue. Fitness should improve after his seasonal reappearance.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★☆☆

• Odds Range: Likely 6.0-9.0 (5/1 - 8/1)

Selection 2: Backer Bilk (17:17 Lingfield, 1m2f Handicap)

• Trainer: Jim & Suzi Best | Jockey: Billy Loughnane

• Key Form: Won over C&D in February, backed up with a strong second last time to Sonic Pioneer.

• Why: Course and distance winner, consistent, and could reverse form with Sonic Pioneer. Stamina well-suited to today’s test.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★☆☆

• Odds Range: Likely 6.0-9.0 (5/1 - 8/1)

Selection 3: Vince Lombardi (19:00 Kempton, 7f Handicap)

• Trainer: Seb Spencer | Jockey: D Swift

• Key Form: Twice runner-up in last three starts, handles 7f well.

• Why: Stable change could unlock improvement. Has shown ability and could be a big player if market confidence increases.

• Confidence Rating: ★★☆☆☆

• Odds Range: Likely 8.0-12.0 (7/1 - 11/1)

Summary of Bets

✔ Patent WIN #1: Kitaro Kich, Handle With Care, Invincible Melody
✔ Trixie E/W #2: Fullforward, Backer Bilk, Vince Lombardi

Gamble Responsibly! Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which Hobby Picks are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.
Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

Race-by-Race Predictions

🏇 13:40 Lingfield (1m4f Apprentice Handicap)

1️⃣ Tara Iti
Trainer: James Owen | Jockey: Mason Paetel
Pedigree: Sixties Icon | Royal Warranty – Breeding suggests stamina and suitability for today's trip.
Key Form: Has been running consistently over hurdles for the Moore yard this winter. Now makes a return to the AW Flat, where his new stable has a strong record with fresh recruits.
Why: James Owen’s stable excels with new acquisitions, and the switch back to the Flat could unlock improvement. He has been competitive over hurdles and, despite the long absence from the AW, he could be primed for a big run at a fair price.

2️⃣ Green Team
Trainer: Ian Williams | Jockey: Warren Fentiman
Pedigree: Wootton Bassett | On The Line (FR) – Bred for quality, with enough staying ability for today’s trip.
Key Form: Sole win came in 2021, but he has finished runner-up in 3 of his 4 AW runs this winter. Strong recent form, with a second-place finish last time out over this trip.
Why: In solid form and should be in the mix again. Trainer Ian Williams has placed him well this winter, and he’s knocking on the door. Consistent runner with cheekpieces applied again for focus.

3️⃣ Daaris
Trainer: Kevin Frost | Jockey: Alfie Redman
Pedigree: Dawn Approach (IRE) | Reyaadah – Has the pedigree to handle middle-distance trips well.
Key Form: Won at Wolverhampton in December and has placed in all five starts since. Stays well and always gives a good account.
Why: A reliable type who keeps running into the places. He has been consistent and is adaptable to race conditions. Will likely be prominent throughout and can stay on for a place again.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Cerulean Summer
Trainer: Dylan Cunha | Jockey: D S O'Sullivan
Pedigree: Eqtidaar (IRE) | Maayaat (USA) – Bred for a blend of speed and stamina, showing progression at this trip.
Key Form: Won twice at Wolverhampton over shorter but has since proven effective over 1m4f, placing on her last two starts.
Why: A progressive filly with a strong AW record. She’s steadily improving and has shown a liking for today’s trip. Her pedigree suggests she could develop further, making her an interesting runner at an appealing price.

🏇 16:12 Lingfield (7f Handicap)

1️⃣ Kitaro Kich
Trainer: George Baker | Jockey: Tom Marquand
Pedigree: Karakontie (JPN) | The Tulip (IRE) – Speed and class in his pedigree, well suited to today’s trip.
Key Form: Proved better than ever when winning a 10-runner handicap at Chelmsford (7f) just six days ago. He won comfortably and is well-in under a 5lb penalty.
Why: Comes here in peak form and looks well treated under the penalty. He’s thriving this year with two wins already, and Tom Marquand is a positive booking. The one to beat.

2️⃣ Runaround Sioux
Trainer: Rod Millman | Jockey: Lewis Edmunds
Pedigree: Sioux Nation (USA) | Angel Mead – Bred to be sharp over sprint trips but has adapted well to 7f.
Key Form: Back-to-back solid placed efforts, most recently when second in a Wolverhampton handicap (8.6f). Has been given a chance by the handicapper.
Why: Holding form well and knocking on the door. The drop back to 7f could suit as he has speed in his pedigree. Strong place claims again.

3️⃣ Split Elevens
Trainer: John Butler | Jockey: Daniel Muscutt
Pedigree: Ajaya | Woodland Scene (IRE) – Middle-distance breeding but proven at this trip.
Key Form: A three-time course-and-distance winner, back on the scoreboard at Kempton (7f) last time, narrowly beating Kondratiev Wave. Only 2lb higher today.
Why: Loves this track and trip, with a strong recent win. Drawn slightly wide but has tactical speed to overcome that. A contender for the places.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Kondratiev Wave
Trainer: Tony Carroll | Jockey: Jack Doughty
Pedigree: Dragon Pulse (IRE) | Right Reason (IRE) – Stamina and speed mix, well-suited to 7f.
Key Form: Very consistent, finishing second to Split Elevens at Kempton last time. Before that, placed over a mile here.
Why: A course winner who is in strong form and has hit the frame multiple times this season. His pedigree suggests he can maintain his speed over this trip, making him a solid value play.

🏇 16:55 Kempton (6f Handicap)

1️⃣ Toughly
Trainer: Ollie Sangster | Jockey: T E Whelan
Pedigree: Mehmas (IRE) | Recife (GER) – Bred for speed, with a sire known for producing sharp sprinters.
Key Form: Confirmed debut promise when winning a 10-runner novice at Southwell (6f) in January, showing plenty of ability despite still being green.
Why: An opening mark of 70 could underestimate her potential. She’s improving with racing and, with natural progression, can prove too strong for this field.

2️⃣ The Thames Lady
Trainer: Richard Hughes | Jockey: Finley Marsh
Pedigree: Land Force (IRE) | Three Sugars (AUS) – Bred to be a sprinter and progressing nicely.
Key Form: Took a big step forward when making a winning handicap debut at Lingfield (6f) last time, staying on strongly.
Why: Remains unexposed and should build on that latest win. Has a handy draw and enough early pace to be competitive again.

3️⃣ Blue Anthem
Trainer: George Boughey | Jockey: Benoit De La Sayette
Pedigree: Starspangledbanner (AUS) | Blues Sister – Speedy pedigree, but could stay slightly further in time.
Key Form: Won a Wolverhampton 7f handicap in February before finding a mile too far at Southwell. Back to 6f should suit.
Why: A sharp drop back in trip could be the key to unlocking improvement. George Boughey’s horses go well here, and this one should be staying on late.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Handle With Care
Trainer: Marco Botti | Jockey: Hollie Doyle
Pedigree: Advertise | Victors Lady (IRE) – Bred for this trip, with potential to be a sharp, effective sprinter.
Key Form: Placed in maidens last summer and now makes her handicap debut after a break.
Why: She’s unexposed and has a top jockey booking in Hollie Doyle. Her pedigree suggests she could be a sharp improver, and if ready to go fresh, she could outrun her odds.

🏇 17:17 Lingfield (1m2f Handicap)

1️⃣ All Cost
Trainer: Martin Dunne | Jockey: Darragh Keenan
Pedigree: Iffraaj | Brown Honey – Bred to improve with time and distance, suggesting further progress at 1m2f.
Key Form: Almost justified strong support when a close second in a Kempton handicap over 1m last time. Now steps up in trip with first-time cheekpieces applied.
Why: Lightly raced and open to improvement, especially now trying 1m2f. His strong finishing effort last time suggests this trip could bring out further progress.

2️⃣ Sonic Pioneer
Trainer: Jack Morland | Jockey: Daniel Muscutt
Pedigree: Massaat (IRE) | Three Gracez – A stamina-influenced pedigree, indicating scope for today’s distance.
Key Form: Showed big improvement when winning his handicap debut at Wolverhampton (8.6f) nine days ago, beating Backer Bilk. Carries a 6lb penalty.
Why: A last-time-out winner who shaped as though he had more to give. The extra distance may suit, and with confidence high, he’s a key danger.

3️⃣ Backer Bilk
Trainer: Jim & Suzi Best | Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Pedigree: Ulysses (IRE) | Marenko – Stamina on the dam’s side, well suited to this trip.
Key Form: Won over C&D in February and backed that up with a solid second to Sonic Pioneer at Wolverhampton last time.
Why: Reliable and in-form. Has proven himself at this track and trip, making him a strong contender for a placing.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Currahee
Trainer: Simon Pearce | Jockey: Kaiya Fraser
Pedigree: Mehmas (IRE) | Never Shy Away (IRE) – Unraced beyond 7f but bred for improvement over middle distances.
Key Form: Makes handicap debut after showing little in three novice runs. Now significantly up in trip, which could unlock hidden potential.
Why: A big step up in trip could bring improvement, especially with a more suitable test of stamina. A dark horse if progressing as his pedigree suggests.

🏇 17:30 Kempton (7f Handicap)

1️⃣ Montrachet Girl
Trainer: Roger Varian | Jockey: Aidan Keeley
Pedigree: Saxon Warrior (JPN) | Zoom Call (IRE) – Bred for middle distances but showing plenty of speed at 7f.
Key Form: Career-best when winning a Southwell (7.1f) handicap last time, overcoming positional bias. Still improving.
Why: Looks well-handicapped despite a 3lb rise. Progressive filly from a top yard and should have more to offer.

2️⃣ Maids Head
Trainer: Marco Botti | Jockey: Benoit De La Sayette
Pedigree: Pinatubo (IRE) | Nashmiah (IRE) – Out of a useful sprinter, improving with racing.
Key Form: Close third in a Southwell (7.1f) nursery last November, finishing clear of the rest.
Why: Has been running well and remains on the upgrade. A strong each-way contender on polytrack debut.

3️⃣ Soldiers Star
Trainer: Hugo Palmer | Jockey: J P Spencer
Pedigree: Soldier's Call | Serengo (IRE) – Bred for speed and precocity.
Key Form: Placed in all three starts in maiden company, including a Chelmsford third when well-fancied. Now gelded.
Why: Has the potential to improve in handicaps. Spencer is a strong booking, and he could get a patient ride into the places.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Blue Eclipse
Trainer: Alice Haynes | Jockey: K T O’Neill
Pedigree: Oasis Dream | Forbidden Love – Well-bred colt with a pedigree suited to 7f.
Key Form: Won a Chelmsford maiden in January but now faces tougher opposition on handicap debut.
Why: Lightly raced and open to improvement. If he progresses again, he could spring a surprise at a decent price.

🏇 18:00 Kempton (7f Handicap)

1️⃣ Invincible Melody
Trainer: Ralph Beckett | Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Pedigree: Invincible Army (IRE) | Roger Sez (IRE) – Speedy pedigree with a sire producing effective all-weather performers.
Key Form: Strong second at Wolverhampton (7.2f) last time in first-time blinkers and tongue tie, shaping as a future winner.
Why: Progressive and unexposed in handicaps, responded well to headgear last time and is well placed to go one better.

2️⃣ Lady Manzor
Trainer: Amanda Perrett | Jockey: Jack Dace
Pedigree: Almanzor (FR) | Montjeu’s Lady – Bred for longer trips but showed speed when winning at Lingfield.
Key Form: Easily won a 7f novice at Lingfield, surging clear. Now makes handicap debut and could improve again.
Why: Untapped potential after an impressive novice win. She’s unexposed and looks a strong contender despite a step up in class.

3️⃣ This Farh
Trainer: David Loughnane | Jockey: Laura Pearson
Pedigree: Far Above (IRE) | This Girl – Precocious sprinter influence but adaptable at 7f.
Key Form: Solidly consistent and won a Lingfield maiden last time. Back to handicaps now.
Why: Reliable performer who stays 7f well. Faces stronger rivals here but should be in the mix.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Political Power
Trainer: Charlie Clover | Jockey: David Egan
Pedigree: Wooded (IRE) | Orayda (IRE) – Bred for further, but sharp enough for this trip.
Key Form: Yet to win but has been running consistently in maidens, finishing second last time.
Why: Makes handicap debut, which could unlock further improvement. A dark horse if progressing as expected.

🏇 18:30 Kempton (7f Handicap)

1️⃣ Lessay
Trainer: Rossa Ryan | Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Pedigree: Shamardal | Lorgnette (IRE) – Strong all-weather influence with proven ability at this level.
Key Form: C&D winner, ran well last time at Southwell (7.1f), finishing strongly despite being held up.
Why: Well-handicapped and shaped well last time. If he gets a clear run, he’s capable of landing this.

2️⃣ City Cyclone
Trainer: William Carson | Jockey: William Carson
Pedigree: Kodiac | City Dazzler – Speedy pedigree, well suited to 7f.
Key Form: Won at Wolverhampton in January and followed up with a respectable fourth at Southwell.
Why: In consistent form and should be competitive again with a strong run in this field.

3️⃣ Ernie’s Valentine
Trainer: Finley Marsh | Jockey: Finley Marsh
Pedigree: No Nay Never | Luvly Rita – Classy background, previously rated much higher.
Key Form: Won at Lingfield two starts ago off a much-reduced mark. Still well-treated on past form.
Why: Has plenty of ability and could go well again now with a new stable.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Fat Gladiator
Trainer: Hollie Doyle | Jockey: Hollie Doyle
Pedigree: Holy Roman Emperor (IRE) | Soraaya (IRE) – Bred for stamina and proven on the all-weather.
Key Form: Not seen for 23 months but has gone well fresh before.
Why: Could be an interesting outsider if fit after a long break. Potential for improvement if fully wound up.

🏇 19:00 Kempton (7f Handicap)

1️⃣ Enpassant

Trainer: Stuart Williams | Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Pedigree: Starspangledbanner (AUS) | Celestial Bow (IRE) – Proven sprinter-miler mix, well-suited to this trip.
Key Form: Won over C&D in February, followed up with a solid third at Chelmsford despite racing keenly.
Why: In top form and still looks well-handicapped. With a strong ride, he can get back to winning ways.

2️⃣ Tea Sea

Trainer: Tony Carroll | Jockey: William Carson
Pedigree: Hunter’s Light (IRE) | Sensa (FR) – A pedigree suited to stamina and all-weather success.
Key Form: Completed a hat-trick at Southwell in January, fourth last time but still ran well in a tougher race.
Why: Remains in good heart and with the blinkers back on, could bounce back to his best.

3️⃣ Ben Y Bryn

Trainer: Charles Hills | Jockey: Jason Watson
Pedigree: Acclamation | Mickleberry (IRE) – Strong speed pedigree, likely to improve with experience.
Key Form: Second last time at Southwell (6.1f) in a competitive race after a promising return.
Why: Fit and in form, likely to progress further with another solid effort.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Vince Lombardi
Trainer: Seb Spencer | Jockey: D Swift
Pedigree: Sea The Moon (GER) | First Destinity (FR) – Stamina-based breeding but adaptable to shorter trips.
Key Form: Twice runner-up in last three starts, has shown ability to handle 7f well.
Why: Stable change is intriguing, and if connections unlock more improvement, he could be a big player at a price.

🔍 Final Verdict:
🏆 Enpassant has solid form and a great C&D record, making him the standout selection.
🔥 Tea Sea is still in strong form, so expect him to be involved late on.
⚠️ Ben Y Bryn is dangerous if building on his last run and Vince Lombardi is the value outsider.

Introducing the Pedigree Pick: A New Angle for Smarter Selections

For those following our daily race analysis, you’ll notice a new addition to our selections—The Pedigree Pick. This isn’t just about finding the best-bred horse on paper; it’s a strategic insight into which runners have the strongest bloodlines for today’s conditions.

How Does the Pedigree Pick Work?

Each day, we’ll highlight a runner whose breeding suggests hidden potential, untapped improvement, or suitability for the race conditions. This is based on:
✅ Sire/Dam Influence – Do they produce winners on today’s surface and trip?
✅ Progeny Trends – Has the family improved with racing experience?
✅ Under-the-Radar Value – If the clear best-bred horse is a short-priced favourite, we’ll find a well-bred contender at a bigger price.

How to Use It in Betting Decisions

🔹 If the Pedigree Pick is unexposed, it may outrun its odds—a great option for place markets or forecasts.
🔹 If it has proven ability, the pedigree can point to improvement—especially in maidens, novices, and handicaps.
🔹 If it’s a longer price, it may be worth a small each-way bet if conditions are in its favour.

We’re trialling this approach across UK, Irish, and U.S. racing to see where it offers the most value. Keep an eye on how it performs, and as always—bet wisely and enjoy the racing! 🏇🔥

"May you never be a penny short of a full wallet."

ChatGPT said:

Now that is a blessing I’ll gladly take! 🙌 May your accas always land, your favourites stay strong, and your pint never run dry on a good race day. 🍻🏇💰

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥