Ascot & Haydock Racing Preview - Expert Predictions & Best Bets 15/02/25!

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
19th to 25th January 2025
Starting Bankroll £30 (28 days)
Top Up to Bankroll £30 12.02.25

Wk 1 £35 Wk 2 £32.01 Wk 3 -£18.12

WEEK 4 £30.31
Sun - -£07.50
Mon - £02.17
Tue - -£07.50
Wed - £07.50
Thrs - £07.00
Fri - £07.96
Sat - -£6.80

Note from Coldjack: At the end of week 4 we almost lost the entire starting bankroll, managing to hang on to 32p. I am hoping for far more when we go again in week 5!

Trixie @4 Lines
Jipcot | Victtorino | Apple Away
Stake £4.00 (4 x £1.00)
Returns £148.00 returned £NOTHING (1 win 2 also ran!)

(Each Way) Patent @14 Lines
Kilbarry Hill | Country Park | Thunder Rock
Stake £3.50 (14 x £0.25)
Returns £197.38 returned £0.70

Stakes £7.50 Winning £0.00 (P/L) losing -£06.80
Modest returns for the 'Trickey Trixie'
Patent punting for the 'zsar bomba' of booms!
(1pt = £1 Pick Your Own Point Level & Runners)

Comprehensive Critique & Debrief of Blog Predictions vs. Race Results

Below is a full performance analysis of the Trixie and Patent bets, along with a race-by-race breakdown of where the predictions excelled, underperformed, or encountered unforeseen race-day factors.

Trixie Bet #1: The Consistency Play (Lower-Risk, High-Probability)

Selections:

1️⃣ Jipcot (12:55 Haydock - 3m Handicap Hurdle) - 4th place
📊 Analysis: Jipcot was well-fancied as the 7/2 favourite but only managed 4th place, finishing 1.75 lengths behind the third. The race was run at a strong pace, and while he travelled well early, he flattened out in the final stages. The winner, One Big Bang (11/2), proved a more resolute stayer, and the big outsider Doddiethegreat (28/1) surprised many with his strong finish.

🔎 Verdict: Unlucky but didn’t fully see out the race as expected. This was a below-par performance given market confidence.

2️⃣ Victtorino (15:00 Ascot - 3m Handicap Chase) - 1st place ✅
📊 Analysis: A perfect call, as Victtorino delivered at 7/2, proving his course-and-distance form was rock solid. The blog was spot on in recognising that the 3lb weight rise was not enough to stop him. He only just held off Threeunderthrufive (11/1) by a nose, but jumped better than most rivals and stayed on strongly.

🔎 Verdict: Excellent prediction—highlighting the right horse at the right track.

3️⃣ Apple Away (15:15 Haydock - 3m4f Handicap Chase) - 2nd place
📊 Analysis: Another strong selection, finishing second at 11/4 favourite. She ran a huge race, keeping on gamely, but couldn’t match Famous Bridge (6/1) late on, who looked like he had more in hand at the weights.

🔎 Verdict: Good selection, but just found one too good on the day. Would have been a winner on softer ground.

Trixie Bet Performance:

• 1 winner (Victtorino) 🏆

• 1 second (Apple Away)

• 1 fourth (Jipcot) 🔹 Outcome: Loss overall due to only one winner, but Apple Away’s close second was encouraging.

Patent Bet #2: The All-Ways Patent (Higher-Risk, Value Play)

Selections:

1️⃣ Kilbarry Hill (12:55 Haydock - 3m Handicap Hurdle) - Unplaced
📊 Analysis: A big disappointment. While Jipcot (4th) ran credibly, Kilbarry Hill never looked comfortable and finished well beaten. Given his progressive profile, this was a flat performance—perhaps the step up in class was too much.

🔎 Verdict: Poor selection—no real excuses aside from failing to handle the stronger competition.

2️⃣ Country Park (14:25 Ascot - 2m3f Handicap Hurdle) - 4th place
📊 Analysis: Ran a decent race at 22/1, but again, just outside the places. The cheekpieces didn’t produce the expected improvement, but he wasn’t disgraced, finishing 1 length behind Classic King (3rd place, 9/1). The winner, Altobelli (11/4 favourite), was well-handicapped and justified support.

🔎 Verdict: Not a bad outsider call but fell short of hitting the frame.

3️⃣ Thunder Rock (14:40 Haydock - 3m Grade 2 Hurdle) - 4th place
📊 Analysis: This was an OK selection, as he finished 4th at 9/2, but he never really threatened the leaders. Gwennie May Boy (6/1) proved the best stayer on the day, while Beauport (2nd at 2/1 favourite) justified support.

🔎 Verdict: Mediocre selection, but given he was a chaser reverting to hurdles, he ran respectably.

Patent Bet Performance:

• 0 winners

• 0 places

• All selections ran respectably but were never quite good enough. 🔹 Outcome: Significant loss. The value approach failed to land anything meaningful.

Race-by-Race Breakdown

Haydock (Key Races)

12:55 - 3m Handicap Hurdle

Blog Prediction: Jipcot 1st / Kilbarry Hill 2nd
Actual Result: Jipcot 4th, Kilbarry Hill unplaced
❌ Verdict: Mixed results—Jipcot ran OK but wasn't strong enough late on.

14:40 - Grade 2 Hurdle

Blog Prediction: Thunder Rock E/W
Actual Result: 4th place
✅ Verdict: Not a bad pick, but never looked like winning.

15:15 - 3m4f Handicap Chase

Blog Prediction: Apple Away (strong chance)
Actual Result: 2nd place
✅ Verdict: Very close to landing a winner.

Ascot (Key Races)

14:25 - 2m3f Handicap Hurdle

Blog Prediction: Country Park (each-way play)
Actual Result: 4th place (22/1)
✅ Verdict: Nearly pulled off a great outsider pick!

15:00 - 3m Handicap Chase

Blog Prediction: Victtorino (strong bet)
Actual Result: 🏆 WON at 7/2
✅ Verdict: Best pick of the day.

Final Summary

Best Calls:

✅ Victtorino (WON at 7/2) - Blog nailed this as a high-confidence bet.
✅ Apple Away (2nd at 11/4F) - A strong Trixie selection, just unlucky.
✅ Country Park (4th at 22/1) - Nearly landed a big-priced place.

Biggest Misses:

❌ Kilbarry Hill (unplaced) - Was expected to improve but failed to show up.
❌ Thunder Rock (4th at 9/2) - Needed a bit more to hit the frame.
❌ Jipcot (4th at 7/2F) - Looked a banker but didn’t quite finish strongly enough.

Overall Betting Outcome

💰 Trixie: One winner (Victtorino), one second (Apple Away), one loss (Jipcot) = Minor loss.
💰 Patent: No winners, all outside places = Full loss.

Lessons Learned

1️⃣ Stick with Course-and-Distance Form: Victtorino’s win reaffirmed the importance of proven track specialists.
2️⃣ Favour Recent Winners Over Potential Improvers: Kilbarry Hill was progressive but untested at this level—whereas proven types like One Big Bang (winner) already showed form.
3️⃣ Fine Margins Can Make or Break the Day: Apple Away’s close second and Country Park’s 4th place at 22/1 were frustrating near-misses that would have transformed the returns.

Final Verdict:

📉 Trixie: Slight loss (1 winner, 1 second, 1 fourth).
📉 Patent: Total loss (no winners).
✅ Best Pick: Victtorino (WON 7/2).
🚀 What Went Wrong: Unplaced horses in Patent, fine margins (Apple Away 2nd, Country Park 4th).

🔮 Next Time? Stick with proven track specialists, respect the market leaders, and be cautious about unproven horses in higher grades.

Pre Race Predictions

🏇 Race Preview & Betting Strategy

Trixie Bet #1: The Consistency Play (Lower-Risk, High-Probability)

Selections:

🏇 Jipcot (12:55 Haydock - 3m Handicap Hurdle)

✅ Key Form: Improving after wind surgery, finishing third in a strong Windsor race and winning impressively at Newbury prior to that.
✅ Reasoning: Looks like a solid stayer who should relish this test. If the race is run at a good pace, he will be finishing strongest. Jonjo O’Neill’s yard is in good form.
⭐ Confidence Rating: ★★★★★

🏇 Victtorino (15:00 Ascot - 3m Handicap Chase)

✅ Key Form: C&D specialist who won the Silver Cup at Ascot, travelling smoothly. Up 3lb but remains well handicapped.
✅ Reasoning: Track specialist who has proven himself in this type of race before. The weight rise shouldn’t stop him from putting in another big run.
⭐ Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆

🏇 Apple Away (15:15 Haydock - 3m4f Handicap Chase)

✅ Key Form: Finished second in a Newbury Listed race and now well-handicapped in this field.
✅ Reasoning: A strong staying type who has performed well in competitive fields. Well-treated in the weights and should go close.
⭐ Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆

💰 Bet Type: Trixie (4 bets: 3 doubles + 1 treble)
📈 Expected Returns:

• 2 winners → Recover stake or small profit

• 3 winners → Multiples return, strong profit potential

Patent Bet #2: The All-Ways Patent (Higher-Risk, Value Play)

Selections:

🏇 Kilbarry Hill (12:55 Haydock - 3m Handicap Hurdle)

🔹 Risk Factor: Lightly raced and stepping up in class.
🔹 Reasoning: Looks to have more improvement in him, and the way he moved through his last race suggests he’s got more to give. Sean Bowen is a great booking.
⭐ Confidence Rating: ★★★☆☆

🏇 Country Park (14:25 Ascot - 2m3f Handicap Hurdle)

🔹 Risk Factor: Yet to win a race under rules but knocking on the door.
🔹 Reasoning: Eye-catching second at Ascot last time without being given a hard race. First-time cheekpieces could bring improvement.
⭐ Confidence Rating: ★★★☆☆

🏇 Thunder Rock (14:40 Haydock - 3m Grade 2 Hurdle)

🔹 Risk Factor: Recent hurdle form is patchy, but his class over fences makes him an interesting option.
🔹 Reasoning: Highly rated chaser who has struggled over hurdles but has the ability to surprise at big odds. If he rediscovers his best, he could hit the frame at a price.
⭐ Confidence Rating: ★★★☆☆

💰 Bet Type: Patent (7 bets: 3 singles, 3 doubles, 1 treble)
📈 Expected Returns:

• 1 winner → Covers most of the stake

• 2 winners → Generates a profit

• 3 winners → Strong return

🔥 Final Adjusted Summary:
✔ Trixie Bet #1: Jipcot, Victtorino, Apple Away (Safer bet, strong form).
✔ Patent Bet #2: Kilbarry Hill, Country Park, Thunder Rock (Riskier but bigger upside).

Best of luck! 🏇💰🍀

📌 Gamble Responsibly!

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which 'obby Picks (dropping Hs since the dog chewed my denture) are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.
Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

Race-by-Race Predictions

🏇 Race 1 - 12:55 Haydock (3m Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Jipcot

Trainer: Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill | Jockey: Kielan Woods
Key Form: Back to best after wind surgery, impressing with a strong finish when third over this trip at Windsor in a valuable handicap. Won decisively at Newbury prior to that.
Why: This improving 6-year-old has been transformed since wind surgery and is relishing longer trips. Travelled powerfully when third over 3m last time despite being held up, and a slightly stronger pace should bring out the best in him. If his stamina holds for this stiff test, he has leading claims.

2️⃣ Kilbarry Hill

Trainer: Olly Murphy | Jockey: Sean Bowen
Key Form: Improving steadily, winning his first two handicaps before an eye-catching second to Uncle Bert over C&D last time. Moved powerfully through that race.
Why: Lightly raced and still on the up for an excellent yard. He travelled well when second here in January, suggesting he has more to offer. If he improves again, he’s a major player. The extra experience and tactical versatility will help him go close.

3️⃣ Nab Wood

Trainer: Nicky Richards | Jockey: Sean Quinlan
Key Form: Progressive over hurdles, winning a Kelso handicap stylishly last season. Second at Ayr last time, shaping as though this longer trip would unlock further improvement.
Why: He’s unexposed at staying trips and his strong finish at Ayr suggests he’ll thrive over 3m. A well-run race should see him to best effect, and with improvement to come, he’s a strong each-way contender at decent odds.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Chasingouttheblues

Trainer: Mark Walford | Jockey: Jamie Hamilton
Key Form: Three wins from last five starts, including over 3m at Ayr last time when digging deep to win a competitive race.
Why: Still unexposed as a staying hurdler and keeps finding more when asked. He’s a fighter who could surprise a few at solid each-way value. If this turns into a stamina test, he’ll be staying on strongly late.

🏇 Race 2 - 14:25 Ascot (2m3f Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Joyeux Machin

Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton
Key Form: Showed a real return to form when third in a big-field Wetherby handicap last time, staying on well. Well treated and now gets the champion jockey in the saddle.
Why: Looks well-handicapped based on his Irish form and shaped like a big improver at Wetherby. The step back up in trip suits, and with Harry Skelton now taking over, expect a strong challenge late on.

2️⃣ Altobelli

Trainer: Harry Fry | Jockey: Bryan Carver
Key Form: Looked much improved when winning over C&D last time with cheekpieces applied. Has been consistent at this track, and a 5lb rise looks lenient.
Why: A proven course performer who thrived with headgear added last time. With his revised mark still looking fair, expect another bold showing over a track he clearly enjoys.

3️⃣ Country Park

Trainer: Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill | Jockey: Jonjo O'Neill Jr.
Key Form: Eye-catching effort when second at Ascot last month, not given a hard time once the winner got away. Has been unlucky not to win a race under rules.
Why: Lightly raced and unexposed, he’s been knocking on the door and could take a big step forward now fitted with cheekpieces. Big each-way potential at longer odds.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Classic King

Trainer: Emma Lavelle | Jockey: Rex Dingle
Key Form: Returned to hurdling in style last time, winning at Doncaster and looking better than ever.
Why: Has had his share of issues over fences but looked right at home back over hurdles. If he can replicate that form, he has the talent to go very close again.

🏇 Race 3 - 14:40 Haydock (3m Grade 2 Hurdle)

1️⃣ Beauport

Trainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies | Jockey: Thomas Bellamy
Key Form: Stormed to victory in the Midlands National at Uttoxeter and followed up with an emphatic 31-length win at Ascot. Proved himself at the top level when third in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle.
Why: The form from his Ascot runs is rock-solid, and he's shown he thrives over extreme trips. This race should play to his strengths, and if he arrives in similar form, he’ll take some pegging back.

2️⃣ Botox Has

Trainer: Gary & Josh Moore | Jockey: Caoilin Quinn
Key Form: Won this race last year in heavy conditions and ran his best race of the season when third in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham. Handles deep ground well.
Why: Course-and-distance winner who thrives in testing conditions. If reproducing his Cheltenham form, he’ll be right in the mix. A big danger to the favourite.

3️⃣ Nemean Lion

Trainer: Kerry Lee | Jockey: Richard Patrick
Key Form: Classy performer at shorter trips, winning at Grade 2 level over 2m4f. Yet to be tested over 3m but brings strong form credentials.
Why: He’s in great form after winning his last two starts, but the big question is stamina. If he stays, he’s a major player, but that’s a significant unknown.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Thunder Rock

Trainer: Olly Murphy | Jockey: Sean Bowen
Key Form: Highly rated chaser who has struggled over hurdles but has the ability to surprise at big odds.
Why: While his recent hurdle form doesn’t inspire confidence, his class over fences is undeniable. If he rediscovers his best, he could hit the frame at a price.

🏇 Race 4 - 15:00 Ascot (3m Handicap Chase)

1️⃣ Victtorino

Trainer: Venetia Williams | Jockey: Charlie Deutsch
Key Form: C&D specialist who won the Silver Cup here last time out, travelling strongly and jumping fluently. Up 3lb but remains a major player.
Why: He thrives at this track and was impressive when winning over C&D in December. The slight rise in weights shouldn’t stop another big performance, and he’s the one to beat.

2️⃣ Hasthing

Trainer: Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill | Jockey: Jonjo O'Neill Jr.
Key Form: Improving with every run over fences, winning his last two at Windsor decisively. Has an 8lb rise to overcome but is progressing fast.
Why: A highly progressive chaser who finished strongly last time. The extra weight is a challenge, but he still looks to be ahead of the handicapper and can go close.

3️⃣ Threeunderthrufive

Trainer: Paul Nicholls | Jockey: Harry Cobden
Key Form: Won this race last year and returned with a promising third behind Victtorino here last time. Now 2lb lower.
Why: Has a great record at Ascot and is well-handicapped on his best form. With fitness now assured, he should be a serious contender.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Wiseguy

Trainer: Nicky Henderson | Jockey: Nico de Boinville
Key Form: Bounced back to winning ways at Newbury last time and looks capable of further improvement.
Why: He’s still lightly raced over fences and showed plenty of ability when winning last time. If he handles this tougher company, he could be a big player at an each-way price.

🏇 Race 5 - 15:15 Haydock (3m4f Handicap Chase)

1️⃣ Yeah Man
Trainer: Gavin Patrick Cromwell | Jockey: S W Flanagan
Key Form: Won this race last year off a lower mark and has performed well in both runs this season, including a strong fourth in a big-field Gowran Park handicap last time.
Why: A proven course-and-distance winner who stays well and thrives in tough conditions. His latest effort at Gowran was eye-catching, given he was caught too far back. A solid chance to defend his title.

2️⃣ Apple Away
Trainer: Lucinda Russell | Jockey: D R Fox
Key Form: A listed mares chase winner last season and back in form with a runner-up finish in a Newbury listed race last time. Looks well-handicapped returning to this level.
Why: Clearly improving and well-treated at the weights. A strong stayer with solid jumping ability, she’s likely to relish the stamina test. Expect a bold run.

3️⃣ Git Maker
Trainer: Jamie Snowden | Jockey: G Sheehan
Key Form: Ended last season with an excellent third in the Scottish National, proving his stamina. Should be fitter after a recent run over hurdles.
Why: A strong staying type who will be suited by the distance. He may be 5lb out of the handicap, but his potential to improve as a stayer makes him a real each-way player.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Jubilee Express
Trainer: Sam Thomas | Jockey: Dylan Johnston
Key Form: Won over course and distance last March and produced a career-best second in the Welsh National last time, staying on strongly.
Why: He’s a progressive stayer and seems to be improving with every race. Though he’s 8lb out of the handicap, his tenacity and recent form suggest he could spring a surprise at decent odds.

🏇 Race 6 - 15:50 Haydock (3m Grade 2 Novice Hurdle)

1️⃣ Derryhassen Paddy
Trainer: Lucinda Russell | Jockey: D R Fox
Key Form: Unbeaten in all three career starts, including an impressive win in a Windsor novice last time, showing a willing attitude.
Why: This progressive type is improving with each run and has already proven he stays 3m well. His ability to battle and find more under pressure makes him the one to beat in this field.

2️⃣ Moon Rocket
Trainer: Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls | Jockey: Thomas Bellamy
Key Form: Won first two hurdle starts before an unlucky second in the Grade 2 River Don at Doncaster, where he shaped as the best horse in the race.
Why: He was only just denied last time and looked the strongest stayer in that race. With more experience under his belt, he’s likely to go very close again.

3️⃣ Kepler’s Law
Trainer: L J Morgan | Jockey: B S Hughes
Key Form: Point-to-point winner who impressed with an easy Leicester novice hurdle win last month after two promising placed efforts.
Why: He’s progressing with racing and looked much more polished last time. Stepping up in class, but he’s an improving type with stamina to handle this trip.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Roaring Conquest
Trainer: Olly Murphy | Jockey: S Bowen
Key Form: Took a big step forward when bolting up in a Lingfield maiden, showing plenty of potential.
Why: He’s unexposed and open to further improvement over this longer distance. A dark horse in this field who could outrun his odds if he steps forward again.

🏇 Race 7 - 16:25 Haydock (2m6f Hunter Chase)

1️⃣ Jet Plane
Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Miss Heidi Palin
Key Form: Easily won a hunter chase at Wetherby two weeks ago by 12 lengths, showing his class in this sphere.
Why: Looks well-suited to hunter chases, and the Wetherby win suggests he’s in top form. With further improvement expected, he’s a strong contender to follow up.

2️⃣ Hollow Games
Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: Mr J H Williamson
Key Form: A useful chaser and hurdler in Ireland, placed in a conditions chase at Clonmel last April.
Why: Has a touch of class and should be competitive at this level. If returning in form, he has the ability to be right in the mix.

3️⃣ My Drogo
Trainer: Edward William Walker | Jockey: Mr William Biddick
Key Form: Once a high-class prospect for Dan Skelton but has been off for a year. Won a point four weeks ago, suggesting ability remains.
Why: A former Grade 1 winner, and though his career has been interrupted, he still retains potential. If fit enough, he could be a big player.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Take All
Trainer: M. Osborne | Jockey: Mr Samuel Scott
Key Form: Improved effort when second in a Taunton hunter chase last time before winning a point-to-point.
Why: Has been rejuvenated in recent months and could offer each-way value in a race with some exposed rivals.

"May you never be a penny short of a full wallet."

ChatGPT said:

Now that is a blessing I’ll gladly take! 🙌 May your accas always land, your favourites stay strong, and your pint never run dry on a good race day. 🍻🏇💰

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥