AWC Marathon Trials Day! Lingfield Delivers Non-Stop Action – 28/02/25

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
19th to 25th January 2025
Starting Bankroll £30 (28 days)
1st Top Up Bankroll £30 (10 days)
2nd Top Up Bankroll £30 (4 days)

Wk 1 £35 Wk 2 £32.01 Wk 3 -£18.12
Wk 4 £30.31 WK 5 £33.76
WEEK 6 £27.29 (3rd top-up)
Sun - -£7.50
Mon - -£5.42
Tue - -£ 7.50
Wed - -£ 5.20
Thrs - -£7.05
Fri - £6.30
Sat - £
Combination Tricast Betting Strategy A one-off experiment Return £2.50 25/2/25

Note from Coldjack: Betting losses happen, but the key is to refine the process, stay disciplined, and not chase after short-term setbacks. P/L entertainment & excitement per day £90 /42 days = -£2.14 I hope for far more profit and there will be, when we go yet again!

Betfair Sportsbook odds were placed at 13:00

Trixie @4 Lines
Bearaway | Moon Over Miami | Fantastic Fox
Stake £4.00 (4 x £1.00)
Returns £66.26 returned £nowt

(Each Way) Patent @14 Lines
Brazilian Rose | Rohaan | Penzance
Stake £3.50 (14 x £0.25)
Returns £88.70 returned £1.20

takes £7.50 Winning £00.00 (P/L) losing £6.30
Modest returns for the 'Trickey Trixie'
Patent punting for the 'zsar bomba' of booms!
(1pt = £1 Pick Your Own Point Level & Runners)

AWC Marathon Trials Day – Lingfield Performance Review & Betting Debrief

Now that we have the pre-race predictions, structured bets, and full results, let's break everything down into a thorough analysis of the Trixie & Patent bets before diving into a race-by-race post-mortem.

1️⃣ Trixie & Patent Performance Breakdown

🔹 Trixie Bet #1: The Consistency Play

💰 Selections:
✅ Bearaway (13:55 Lingfield) – WON (7/4)
❌ Moon Over Miami (16:10 Lingfield) – UNPLACED
❌ Fantastic Fox (17:20 Lingfield) – 3rd (5/1)

📊 Outcome: 1 winner, 1 place, 1 loss → Total Loss (£4.00 stake, £0.00 return)

🔸 Where It Went Right/Wrong:

✅ Bearaway was an excellent selection, delivering as expected, confirming his consistency at Lingfield.
✅ Fantastic Fox ran well to place 3rd at 5/1, but for a Trixie, we needed a win.
❌ Moon Over Miami was the biggest letdown—unplaced in the 16:10 despite his profile looking solid. The lack of early pace may have impacted his staying power.
💡 Improvement for next time: Consider factoring in race shape more heavily for stayers. Lingfield’s sharp 2m track can be tactical—backing front-runners or proven pace-setters in these races may be more profitable.

🔹 Patent Bet #2: The All-Ways Patent (Higher-Risk Play)

💰 Selections:
❌ Brazilian Rose (14:25 Lingfield) – UNPLACED
❌ Rohaan (15:35 Lingfield) – UNPLACED
🔹 Penzance (16:45 Lingfield) – 4th (11/4)

📊 Outcome: 0 winners, 1 place → Total Loss (£3.50 stake, £0.43 return)

🔸 Where It Went Right/Wrong:

❌ Brazilian Rose failed to fire and was beaten early.
❌ Rohaan was disappointing—probably too much ground to make up from his position.
🔹 Penzance placed 4th—frustratingly close, but not enough to return anything meaningful.

💡 Key Takeaways:

• This was a high-risk play, and it showed. The logic was sound, but Lingfield’s tactical nature often makes it tough for closers—which hurt both Rohaan and Penzance.

• Next time: Focus on value runners who are likely to race prominently rather than coming from behind—especially on AW tracks with tight turns like Lingfield.

2️⃣ Race-by-Race Performance Review

🏇 Race 1 - 13:55 Lingfield (1m2f Apprentice Handicap)

🔹 Prediction: Bearaway to win – ✅
🔹 Actual Result: Bearaway (1st, 7/4)

📝 Analysis:
Perfect selection! Bearaway controlled the race well, proving himself a solid low-risk selection for the Trixie. Book Of Life (4th) just missed placing, which was frustrating but our read on the form was strong.

✅ TAKEAWAY: AW consistency proved profitable. We correctly identified Bearaway’s course form and stable confidence.

🏇 Race 2 - 14:25 Lingfield (7f Fillies & Mares Trial Handicap)

🔹 Prediction: Brazilian Rose to win – ❌
🔹 Actual Result: Quandary (1st, 17/2)

📝 Analysis:
Brazilian Rose was poor, never looking like a factor. Meanwhile, Quandary ran a well-judged race, confirming strong recent AW form can outweigh minor weight rises.

❌ TAKEAWAY: Be more cautious about sprinters stepping up in trip—Brazilian Rose excelled at 6f but lacked the extra stamina needed over 7f here.

🏇 Race 3 - 15:00 Lingfield (6f Handicap)

🔹 Prediction: So Darn Hot to win – ✅
🔹 Actual Result: So Darn Hot (1st, 7/2)

📝 Analysis:
Another correct win selection, strong pace helped him close late, and he justified confidence at 7/2. Carbine Harvester placed 2nd, another good call.

✅ TAKEAWAY: Lingfield’s straight 6f favours strong-finishing sprinters—this worked perfectly for So Darn Hot.

🏇 Race 4 - 15:35 Lingfield (6f Handicap)

🔹 Prediction: Rohaan to win – ❌
🔹 Actual Result: Ferrous (1st, 2/1)

📝 Analysis:
Rohaan wasn’t suited by race shape—Ferrous dictated the pace and was always in control.

❌ TAKEAWAY: Lingfield’s AW favours prominent runners over sprint trips. We backed a hold-up horse and got punished.

🏇 Race 5 - 16:10 Lingfield (2m Handicap)

🔹 Prediction: Moon Over Miami to win – ❌
🔹 Actual Result: Roaring Legend (1st, 7/2)

📝 Analysis:
Moon Over Miami was outpaced—Roaring Legend controlled the race and stayed best.

❌ TAKEAWAY: Lingfield’s tight 2m track means tactical speed > stamina. We backed a horse needing a true staying test, which didn’t materialise.

🏇 Race 6 - 16:45 Lingfield (1m2f Handicap)

🔹 Prediction: Penzance to win – ❌ (4th place)
🔹 Actual Result: The Glen Rovers (1st, 13/2)

📝 Analysis:
Penzance ran well but just lacked finishing kick—The Glen Rovers had the better tactical position.

❌ TAKEAWAY: Be wary of backing favourites returning from a break in competitive AW handicaps—they often need a race to hit peak fitness.

🏇 Race 7 - 17:20 Lingfield (1m Handicap)

🔹 Prediction: Fantastic Fox to win – ❌ (3rd place)
🔹 Actual Result: Destructive (1st, 4/1)

📝 Analysis:
Fantastic Fox ran well but was outkicked late—Destructive was improving and landed the win.

❌ TAKEAWAY: Progressive handicappers often improve faster than expected. A horse with two recent wins (like Destructive) can be worth sticking with.

3️⃣ Key Learnings & Adjustments for Next Time

🚀 What Worked Well: ✅ Backed strong AW performers: Bearaway & So Darn Hot both won as expected.
✅ Trixie structure was logical: Bearaway & Fantastic Fox both ran well—Moon Over Miami was just an unfortunate outlier.

🔻 What Needs Adjusting: ❌ Lingfield’s AW favours pace, not hold-up runners: Rohaan, Penzance, and Moon Over Miami all suffered from racing too far back.
❌ Trixie suffered from one poor selection (Moon Over Miami): A better choice here (e.g., Roaring Legend) could have saved the bet.
❌ Patent lacked a single winner: This bet structure relies on at least one win—we must improve identifying which big-priced runner has the best chance.

🔹 Final Verdict:

📌 Trixie: One bad leg cost a potential profit. Better race-shape reading needed for stayers.
📌 Patent: Completely misfired, but the logic of higher-risk value remains valid. Refining selections will improve results.
📌 Future Tweaks: Focus more on tactical pace positioning, and avoid late-running horses in Lingfield sprints and staying races.

🔥 Final Score:
📊 Trixie Execution: 6/10 (One leg off from success)
📊 Patent Execution: 3/10 (Needed at least one winner)
📊 Race Predictions Overall: 7/10 (Winners in races 1 & 3, strong places in 6 & 7)

The hunt for profit continues! 🏇💰 Next time, we refine and fire again! 🚀

Pre-racing Predictions Posted 13:00

Trixie Bet #1: The Consistency Play

Objective: Low-risk, high-probability selections from the race-by-race predictions.

Selections:

✅ 13:55 Lingfield – Bearaway
Trainer: Simon Pearce | Jockey: S D Bowen

• Key Form: Won 2 of last 3 starts, including a dominant Wolverhampton win. Strong C&D form with Lingfield success in December.

• Why: Thriving for a new yard, reliable performer at this trip, and well-positioned from stall 5. Market support suggests confidence.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★★★

✅ 16:10 Lingfield – Moon Over Miami
Trainer: Ralph Beckett | Jockey: Hector Crouch

• Key Form: Lightly raced, two wins from four starts, shaped well when staying on for 4th at Kempton over this trip.

• Why: Looks a strong stayer with more to come, progressive profile, and well-bred for this test. Market support is a big plus.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★★★

✅ 17:20 Lingfield – Fantastic Fox
Trainer: Roger Varian | Jockey: Aidan Keeley

• Key Form: C&D winner, strong second at Newcastle on return, indicating top form.

• Why: Well-drawn, consistent on AW tracks, and should be primed for a peak performance.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆

🎯 Bet Type: Trixie (3 Doubles + 1 Treble) – 4 total bets.
📈 Expected Outcome:

• Two winners = Recover stake/small profit.

• Three winners = Strong return.

Patent Bet #2: The All-Ways Patent (Higher-Risk Play)

Objective: Higher-risk plays with good upside potential.

Selections:

✅ 14:25 Lingfield – Brazilian Rose (Currently 7.4 odds)
Trainer: Rebecca Menzies | Jockey: Kaiya Fraser

• Key Form: Hat-trick of wins at Newcastle before strong third over 7f.

• Why: Continues to improve, well-handicapped despite a 5lb rise, and unlucky not to win last time. Value at current odds.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆

✅ 15:35 Lingfield – Rohaan (Currently 6.4 odds)
Trainer: David Evans | Jockey: Hayley Turner

• Key Form: C&D winner, denied a clear run when second at Southwell last time, now 18lb lower than when 5th in this race last year.

• Why: Well-drawn in stall 1, strong finisher, and well-handicapped for a big performance.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★☆☆

✅ 16:45 Lingfield – Penzance (Currently 5.4 odds)
Trainer: Michael Appleby | Jockey: Alistair Rawlinson

• Key Form: Won this race last year, second in the Easter Classic at Newcastle. Well-handicapped and fresh from a break.

• Why: Course specialist, thrives in this race, and if anywhere near his best, he’s the one to beat.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆

🎯 Bet Type: Patent (7 bets: 3 singles, 3 doubles, 1 treble).
📈 Expected Outcome:

• One winner = Covers most of the stake.

• Two winners = Good profit.

• All three = Huge return.

✅ All selections have different race times and meet the required odds criteria. These bets balance safety and value, with strong chances of returning a profit. 🚀

Gamble Responsibly! Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which Hobby Picks are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.
Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

Race-by-Race Predictions

🏇 Race 1 - 13:55 Lingfield (1m2f Apprentice Handicap)

1️⃣ WIN SELECTION: Bearaway

Trainer: Simon Pearce | Jockey: S D Bowen
Pedigree: Kodiac | Fair Sailing (IRE) – Bred for speed but has proven his ability over middle distances.
Key Form: Won 2 of his last 3 starts, including a comfortable success at Wolverhampton (9.5f). Strong C&D form, winning on stable debut at Lingfield in December.
Why: Bearaway is thriving for his new yard, with two convincing wins over similar conditions. His straightforward style suits Lingfield, and he's well-positioned to dominate from stall 5. Market support (currently around 2.92) suggests confidence. Major player.

2️⃣ SECOND PLACE: Book Of Life

Trainer: Ian Williams | Jockey: Ryan Kavanagh
Pedigree: Dark Angel (IRE) | Inspiriter – A typically speedy pedigree but has found improvement over 10f.
Key Form: Looked a different horse over this trip, winning easily at Wolverhampton. That form has been boosted with the runner-up scoring next time out.
Why: He’s a well-handicapped horse rediscovering his best. The extra distance clearly suits, and he should be finishing strongly. Could even challenge Bearaway if he gets a clear run.

3️⃣ THIRD PLACE: Solanna

Trainer: John Butler | Jockey: Grace McEntee
Pedigree: Helmet (AUS) | Night Lily (IRE) – Versatile pedigree, with a strong AW influence.
Key Form: Two wins in his last three, including an authoritative victory at Chelmsford last time. Handles Lingfield well.
Why: His current form is rock-solid, and he’s tactically adaptable. He will be competitive late on and has place claims at value odds.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Obsidian Knight

Trainer: T. J. Kent | Jockey: Brandon Wilkie
Pedigree: Awtaad (IRE) | Holda (IRE) – Bred for further but thrives over Lingfield’s 1m2f.
Key Form: Proven C&D performer, winning here in November and bouncing back with a solid 2nd last time out.
Why: His track record at Lingfield is eye-catching. He’s a strong stayer at this trip and often runs well here. If the pace is strong, he could swoop late for a place at good odds.

Bearaway looks the one to beat, with Book Of Life as the main danger. Solanna is rock-solid for a place, while Obsidian Knight is the value play with a proven Lingfield record.

🏇 Race 2 - 14:25 Lingfield (7f Fillies & Mares Trial Handicap)

1️⃣ WIN SELECTION: Brazilian Rose

Trainer: Rebecca Menzies | Jockey: Kaiya Fraser
Pedigree: Bungle Inthejungle | Bahama Spirit – A sharp sprinting pedigree, but has proven effectiveness over 7f.
Key Form: Big improver this year with a hat-trick of 6f wins at Newcastle before a strong third over this trip. Remains in excellent form and looks well-handicapped despite a 5lb rise.
Why: She has taken huge strides forward for this yard and was unlucky not to win last time. If she gets a good position early, she could outpace the field late on. Current odds around 7.4 offer value.

2️⃣ SECOND PLACE: Aramis Grey

Trainer: Jack Jones | Jockey: Callum Shepherd
Pedigree: Gutaifan (IRE) | Sveva (IRE) – Strong AW pedigree, proven at Lingfield.
Key Form: Runner-up in this race last year, just 1lb higher now. Ran well at Kempton (6f) last time and has a consistent profile at this level.
Why: She has course form, class, and experience, making her a reliable each-way bet. A strong finish is expected, and she should be there at the business end.

3️⃣ THIRD PLACE: Quandary

Trainer: Harry Davies | Jockey: Harry Davies
Pedigree: New Bay | Fondled – Stamina influence in pedigree but has adapted well to 7f.
Key Form: Placed in all three 7f handicaps this year, including a solid 2nd at Southwell in a first-time visor.
Why: A rock-solid and consistent performer at this level. Likely to be in the mix, though might need luck in running from a midfield draw.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Romanova

Trainer: Ollie Sangster | Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Pedigree: Golden Horn | Red Lady (IRE) – Bred for longer distances but has shown raw talent at 7f.
Key Form: Wide-margin 7f maiden winner at Salisbury in 2023. Was highly regarded, going off 9/2 for a Group 2 before a long layoff.
Why: A total wildcard with serious upside. If fully fit, she could blow this field away. The market will be the best guide, but she’s one to watch closely for a big run.

Brazilian Rose looks the one to beat, with Aramis Grey a solid each-way contender. Quandary is ultra-consistent, while Romanova could be a dark horse if ready to fire.

🏇 Race 3 - 15:00 Lingfield (6f Handicap)

1️⃣ WIN SELECTION: So Darn Hot

Trainer: Kevin Philippart de Foy | Jockey: J Mitchell
Pedigree: Too Darn Hot | La Dorotea (IRE) – Speedy pedigree, suited to sharp 6f races.
Key Form: Career-best win in a strong Newcastle 6f handicap last time, beating Yes I'm Mali comfortably. Well-handicapped despite a 5lb rise.
Why: This progressive sprinter has hit top form and is tactically versatile. Given the expected strong early pace, his late challenge could be perfectly timed to strike again.

2️⃣ SECOND PLACE: Carbine Harvester

Trainer: William Haggas | Jockey: Harry Burns
Pedigree: Hello Youmzain (FR) | Bonita Queen (FR) – Bred for speed and has taken well to AW racing.
Key Form: Won his last three races over 6f, showing strong finishing speed. A 4lb rise looks lenient.
Why: A massive improver who thrives on AW. He has winning form at Lingfield and is hard to oppose, though this is his toughest test yet.

3️⃣ THIRD PLACE: Good Banter

Trainer: Clive Cox | Jockey: Hector Crouch
Pedigree: Calyx | The Stalking Moon (IRE) – Speedy pedigree, shaping like a useful sprinter.
Key Form: Won both of his 6f novice races at Wolverhampton in dominant style.
Why: This unexposed colt has bags of potential and could be even better now handicapping. The wide draw (stall 12) is the only concern—he needs luck in running.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Motawahij

Trainer: K. R. Burke | Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Pedigree: American Pharoah (USA) | Stillwater Cove (USA) – Bred for quality, lightly raced, and should improve.
Key Form: Won a Newcastle 5f maiden easily last time and still has room for progress.
Why: A well-bred horse from a top yard, and connections wouldn’t be running him in this if they didn’t expect more improvement. Interesting each-way contender.

So Darn Hot has strong momentum and a race setup that suits, while Carbine Harvester is chasing a four-timer and has solid claims. Good Banter is highly promising but needs luck from a wide stall, while Motawahij could be one to keep an eye on for future races.

🏇 Race 4 - 15:35 Lingfield (6f Handicap)

1️⃣ WIN SELECTION: Rohaan

Trainer: David Evans | Jockey: Hayley Turner
Pedigree: Mayson | Vive Les Rouges – Proven sprinting pedigree, has thrived over 6f.
Key Form: C&D winner and finished a strong second at Southwell last time, despite being denied a clear run. Well-handicapped, now 18lb lower than when fifth in this race last year.
Why: Well-drawn in stall 1 and should be finishing fast if he gets a gap. Given his proven ability and strong form, he has a great chance at value odds (6.4).

2️⃣ SECOND PLACE: Ferrous

Trainer: Jack Channon | Jockey: Tom Marquand
Pedigree: Dark Angel (IRE) | Grizzel (IRE) – Sprinting-bred and has thrived on AW.
Key Form: Two wins from four AW starts and finished a creditable third at Ascot (6f) on his last outing. Returns off the same mark and has a strong draw in stall 3.
Why: A proven 6f sprinter who runs well fresh. If he gets a clean break, he’ll be dangerous in the final furlong.

3️⃣ THIRD PLACE: Prince of Pillo

Trainer: Richard Fahey | Jockey: O J Orr
Pedigree: Prince Of Lir (IRE) | Lucky Omen (IRE) – Suited to quick 6f races.
Key Form: Scored over C&D last time out, despite breaking slowly. Up 6lb but still competitive at this level.
Why: Has recent winning form and knows how to handle Lingfield. If he breaks cleanly, he’ll be in the mix late on.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Shartash

Trainer: Archie Watson | Jockey: Hollie Doyle
Pedigree: Invincible Spirit (IRE) | Shamreen (IRE) – Speed pedigree, but best form is on turf.
Key Form: Has run in Group races, including a decent 3rd at Deauville (6f) last year.
Why: This is his first time on AW, but his class could still show. The weight is a big ask, but if he adapts to the surface, he could spring a surprise.

Rohaan looks very well-handicapped and is the one to beat, while Ferrous is a strong danger from a good draw. Prince of Pillo has C&D-winning form, while Shartash is the class angle but carries top weight.

🏇 Race 5 - 16:10 Lingfield (2m Handicap)

1️⃣ Moon Over Miami
Trainer: Ralph Beckett | Jockey: Hector Crouch
Key Form: Lightly raced and progressive. Two wins from four career starts and caught the eye when staying on for fourth at Kempton last time over this trip. Looks a stayer with more to come.
Why: Well-bred for stamina, still unexposed, and wasn’t knocked about last time. Likely to relish the two miles and improve significantly. Market confidence suggests a strong run is expected.

2️⃣ Roaring Legend
Trainer: Hugo Palmer | Jockey: David Probert
Key Form: Two wins from two runs in 2025, landing back-to-back handicaps at Newcastle and Wolverhampton. A 4lb rise in the weights is manageable.
Why: Comes here in top form, proven over the trip, and a strong stayer. The only concern is the polytrack debut, but his profile suggests he’ll handle it. Major threat.

3️⃣ Mr Escobar
Trainer: Willie Mullins | Jockey: S D Bowen
Key Form: Won over hurdles last time and was a strong-finishing sixth in a valuable Naas handicap when last seen on the Flat. Has winning AW form.
Why: Represents the top Irish jumps stable and has proven ability in this sphere. If he handles Lingfield, he’s got the stamina and class to be in the mix.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Givemefive
Trainer: Harry Derham | Jockey: Hollie Doyle
Key Form: Finished second in a staying contest last autumn behind a subsequent dual hurdle winner. Lightly raced at this trip.
Why: Big price and could surprise. On a good mark based on hurdles form, and the return to the Flat could suit. Hollie Doyle is a positive booking.

🏇 Race 6 - 16:45 Lingfield (1m2f Handicap)

1️⃣ Penzance
Trainer: Michael Appleby | Jockey: Alistair Rawlinson
Key Form: Won this race last year and ran a career-best when second in the Easter Classic at Newcastle. Returns from a break and is well-handicapped on past form.
Why: A course specialist who thrives in this race. If anywhere near his best, he sets the standard and should go very close.

2️⃣ Genoah
Trainer: M. D. O'Callaghan | Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Key Form: Has improved significantly since stepping up in trip, winning at Dundalk last time. Lightly raced with more to offer.
Why: An Irish raider on the up, his stamina is proven, and he’s still open to further improvement at this level. Could be the main danger.

3️⃣ Dragon Icon
Trainer: Roger Varian | Jockey: J Mitchell
Key Form: Course winner who ran a strong third in a competitive Newcastle handicap last time, having to pick his way through traffic.
Why: Looks ready to strike, is well-handicapped on past form, and is unexposed over this trip.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: The Glen Rovers
Trainer: Lucy Wadham | Jockey: S D Bowen
Key Form: A progressive 6-year-old, he registered a fourth career victory at Kempton before a solid fourth over 11f last time.
Why: Big price but consistent. If the pace is strong, he has the stamina to pick up the pieces late on.

🏇 Race 7 - 17:20 Lingfield (1m Handicap)

1️⃣ Fantastic Fox
Trainer: Roger Varian | Jockey: Aidan Keeley
Key Form: C&D winner, performed well on return at Newcastle (2nd of 12) last time out. Strong form on AW tracks.
Why: He’s back in top shape, well-drawn, and his recent run suggests he's primed for a big effort. Expected to go close.

2️⃣ Destructive
Trainer: Michael Bell | Jockey: Callum Shepherd
Key Form: Two wins in a row at Wolverhampton (January), showing career-best efforts since being gelded.
Why: Progressive type who could have more to offer, and his current momentum makes him a real threat.

3️⃣ Cynosure
Trainer: Andrew Balding | Jockey: J Fanning
Key Form: C&D winner, placed twice at Wolverhampton recently, shaping well despite not staying 9.5f last time.
Why: Back to his ideal distance, and the first-time cheekpieces could give him an extra edge.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Witch Hunter
Trainer: Richard Hannon | Jockey: S M Levey
Key Form: Group 2 winner in 2023, solid 3rd in the Balmoral Handicap at Ascot (1m) in October.
Why: Class horse in the race but needs a strong pace to be seen at his best. If he gets the right setup, he could swoop late.

Introducing the Pedigree Pick: A New Angle for Smarter Selections

For those following our daily race analysis, you’ll notice a new addition to our selections—The Pedigree Pick. This isn’t just about finding the best-bred horse on paper; it’s a strategic insight into which runners have the strongest bloodlines for today’s conditions.

How Does the Pedigree Pick Work?

Each day, we’ll highlight a runner whose breeding suggests hidden potential, untapped improvement, or suitability for the race conditions. This is based on:
✅ Sire/Dam Influence – Do they produce winners on today’s surface and trip?
✅ Progeny Trends – Has the family improved with racing experience?
✅ Under-the-Radar Value – If the clear best-bred horse is a short-priced favourite, we’ll find a well-bred contender at a bigger price.

How to Use It in Betting Decisions

🔹 If the Pedigree Pick is unexposed, it may outrun its odds—a great option for place markets or forecasts.
🔹 If it has proven ability, the pedigree can point to improvement—especially in maidens, novices, and handicaps.
🔹 If it’s a longer price, it may be worth a small each-way bet if conditions are in its favour.

We’re trialling this approach across UK, Irish, and U.S. racing to see where it offers the most value. Keep an eye on how it performs, and as always—bet wisely and enjoy the racing! 🏇🔥

"May you never be a penny short of a full wallet."

ChatGPT said:

Now that is a blessing I’ll gladly take! 🙌 May your accas always land, your favourites stay strong, and your pint never run dry on a good race day. 🍻🏇💰

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥