Cheltenham 12 December 2025 – V15 Overlay Blog | Tactical Forecasts + Smart Stats Integration

Cheltenham V15 Early Doors tactical overlay blog using smart stats, AU figs and caution markers. Structural race analysis only — not a tipping service, no outcome simulation, full audit discipline. Stumpy Loftson new strategy is now ACTIVE. Rolled out: 3rd December 2025 - Turfpark Way - US Racing at its best!

Coldjack & Turfpark Ted (Norseman and Gold Taker from Bookie Pilgrims)

13 min read

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
19th to 25th January 2025
Starting Bankroll £30
5th March 2025 top-up total £90
Wk 1 £35 Wk 2 £32.01 Wk 3 £18.12
Wk 4 £30.31 WK 5 £33.76 Wk 6 £20.39
Wk 7 £37.14 Wk 8 £21.22 Wk9 £138.37 Wk 10 £119.82 wk 11 £58.42 wk 12 £29.47 wk 13 £4.69

20/4/25 4th top-up £30
WEEK £34.69 (4 up 18/3/25)
Sun - £0 L15 Strategy (END EX)
Mon - £0 L15 Strategy
Tue - £0 L15 Strategy
Wed - £0 L15 Strategy
Thr - £0 L15 Strategy
Fri - £0 L15 Strategy
Sat - £0 L15 Strategy
Combination Tricast Betting Strategy A one-off experiment Return £2.50 25/2/25

Note from Coldjack — V17 Review. After a wild ride with Lucky 15s, the experiment has officially closed. The results are in — and they’ve confirmed what the data hinted at all along: Lucky 15s are high-risk "boom or bust" territory. Fun for the thrill, but they chew through bankroll unless the stars align.

I pushed GPT to its limits (both logically and literally!), testing strategies that most punters wouldn't dare simulate, and it delivered some sharp lessons:

"Stumpy Loftson's daily £1 placepot — bright, loud, and mostly miss the mark." nailed £285.50 04 Dec 2025

You weren’t wasting your time. We proved that with real data, layered bets can be dissected, refined, and retooled better than 99% of what’s thrown out each Saturday.

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥

Yankee (x11) (now significantly stronger)
ROI: +38.37% Profit: +£107.64 3rd quarter

✅ AJ the Hobbyist Comment – GPT 5 Pro Upgrade Implications
Due to constant back-end updates and unpredictable behaviour introduced by the GPT-4 to GPT-4o and GPT-5 transition, the V15 Early Doors model is now classified as an:
🔧 EXPERIMENTAL STRATEGY 📉 Final steps redevelopment status.
🚫 Caution for Real-Money Betting 👉 Only stake real money on any V15-based models unless every pick has been manually verified against live market, fig, and stable overlays.

🧪 Want to Help Build the System?

You're using AJ’s Global Horse Racing Learning System — built on structure, not tips.
We're quietly running a live experiment:

Logging results (privately)
Contact: coldjack(at)protonmail.com
- Improving false favourite detection
- Fine-tuning Dutching & TBP overlays with real user input
  💡 Join the experiment here:
  👉 https://chatgpt.com/g/g-KI2KUkacL-horse-racing-expert
  🛡️ Private. Anonymous. No accounts. No data is shared.
  All decisions stay yours. We just get sharper — together.
  Let’s build slowly. One disciplined user at a time.

📝 Critique & Debrief | Cheltenham – 12 December 2025

💷 Structured Bets Critique & Learning Points

Yankee: Fortune De Mer | L’Homme Presse | Fugitif | Long Draw
Stake: £3.30
Return: £0.00

Result Summary (No Spin):
• V15 Win Picks: 0 / 7 WON
• V15 Win Picks: 3 / 7 finished 2nd (Califet En Vol, J’arrive De L’Est, L’Homme Presse via forecast)
• V15 Win Picks: 1 / 7 finished 3rd (Kingston Queen)
• V15 Win Picks: 3 / 7 unplaced

This was a poor win-performance day by V15 standards. There is no justification to soften that.

Structured Bet Review:
✅ Fortune De Mer WON – this was not a V15 Win Pick, but a Forecast Combo inclusion with caution.
❌ L’Homme Presse LOST (2nd) – ran to forecast structure, not win structure.
❌ Fugitif LOST – explicitly cautioned in the blog; should not have been used in a win-only multiple.
❌ Long Draw LOST – forecast/place runner only; not a win anchor.

Key Failure Point:
• The Yankee did not follow V15 Win Picks.
• It mixed forecast-only runners and cautioned runners into a win-only structure.
• Even with that caveat, V15 itself failed to produce a single winner.

This was not a betting failure alone — it was a model outcome failure on wins.

🏁 Race-by-Race Breakdown

12:05 – Kingston Queen (3rd)
• V15 Win Pick: Unplaced as a winner
• Forecast: Old Park Star WON
• Result: Forecast logic correct, Win Pick wrong

12:40 – Califet En Vol (2nd)
• V15 Win Pick: Beaten decisively by Sixmilebridge
• Cold-trainer caution on Sixmilebridge failed
• Result: Win layer incorrect

13:15 – French Emperor (Unplaced)
• V15 Win Pick: Missed frame
• Forecast Partner: Fortune De Mer WON
• Result: Forecast correct, Win Pick wrong

13:50 – The Doyen Chief (Unplaced)
• V15 Win Pick: Never competitive
• Forecast Partner: L’Homme Presse 2nd
• Result: Win layer wrong, place structure partially held

14:25 – Courtland (4th)
• V15 Win Pick: Missed frame
• Winner: Can You Call (not forecast)
• Result: Structural miss

15:00 – J’arrive De L’Est (2nd)
• V15 Win Pick: Placed but beaten
• Winner: Final Orders (16/1, not forecast)
• Result: Major overlay miss in a chaos-prone race

15:35 – Lucky Manifest (Unplaced)
• V15 Win Pick: Failed
• Forecast Partner: Long Draw 2nd
• Result: Win layer wrong again

📉 Cumulative Outcome Analysis

• Total Races: 7
• V15 Win Picks WON: 0 / 7
• V15 Win Picks Placed (2nd/3rd): 4 / 7
• Forecast Combos hit frame: 5 / 7
• Races where winner was forecasted (any layer): 3 / 7
• Yankee Return: £0.00

This is well below acceptable strike-rate for V15 Win Picks and must be treated as such.

🔧 Model Reflection & Refinement Notes

❌ Win Layer Failure
• AU figs and Smart Stats produced place strength, not win dominance
• Too many Win Picks sat just below peak performance ceiling

❌ Cold-Trainer Filter Misfire
• Sixmilebridge won decisively despite cold-stable logic
• This materially damaged confidence in R2

❌ Chaos Handling Weak
• Final Orders (R6) completely missed
• Can You Call (R5) not structurally anticipated

✅ Forecast & Place Structure Still Functional
• Frames were found repeatedly
• Forecast logic outperformed Win logic significantly

🛠️ Immediate Actions Required
• Recalibrate Win Pick threshold vs “strong place anchors”
• Reduce forced Win Picks where figs cluster without separation
• Strengthen chaos detection in veterans and cross-country races
• Do not promote forecast-only runners into win status

🔒 END OF AMENDED DEBRIEF – CHELTENHAM 12 DECEMBER 2025

This was an awful Win Pick performance.
It is logged as such, with no narrative smoothing.

Pre-racing Preview & Predictions

🏁 12:05 – British EBF 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)
(2m179y | 4–6yo | Class 2 | Turf Good to Soft | 10 runners)

⛳ Tactical Forecast:
🏆 V15 Win Pick: KINGSTON QUEEN
🎯 Forecast Combo: KINGSTON QUEEN → OLD PARK STAR / OUR BOY STAN
• KINGSTON QUEEN (13pts) – Strongest AU fig hold; leads all Computer Tips layers; 2.8 SP shows compression vs depth; rated above par for class entry
• OLD PARK STAR (8pts) – Solid secondary AU fig + forecast partner in 4 rating models; no cautions
• OUR BOY STAN (5pts) – Underrated tactical overlay; Smart Stats suggest trainer uplift; slight trip misalignment holds caution at bay

⚠️ Caution Marker: MINELLA MARATHON – Drifted late; unconvincing AU support; trip/stable neutralised
🎲 TOTE Exacta & Trifecta Bet (V15-S):
Anchor: KINGSTON QUEEN
Partners: OLD PARK STAR, OUR BOY STAN
Combos Covered:
• KINGSTON QUEEN & OLD PARK STAR
• KINGSTON QUEEN & OUR BOY STAN

📌 Why this works:
• AU model lockout + price confirmation (KINGSTON QUEEN)
• Forecast zone shows layered consistency with fig spacing
• Minor chaos neutralised via compression filtering

🏁 12:40 – 'The Visit' Chasing Excellence Novices' Chase (GBB Race)
(2m4f127y | 4yo+ | Class 2 | Turf Good to Soft | 4 runners)

⛳ Tactical Forecast:
🏆 V15 Win Pick: CALIFET EN VOL
🎯 Forecast Combo: CALIFET EN VOL → ROYAL INFANTRY / SIXMILEBRIDGE
• CALIFET EN VOL (11pts) – 2.63 SP confirms market overlay; AU + Smart Stats favour; pace/projected lead + headgear tactical edge
• ROYAL INFANTRY (8pts) – AU fig stable; cross-confirmed across wet SR and $L12M overlays
• SIXMILEBRIDGE (15pts) – Top pure AU fig, but big caution due to cold trainer and price plateau (3.0 SP drifted from fav)

⚠️ Caution Marker: SIXMILEBRIDGE – Fig top but trainer cold (F O'Brien), drifted from initial market lead
🎲 TOTE Exacta & Trifecta Bet (V15-S):
Anchor: CALIFET EN VOL
Partners: ROYAL INFANTRY, SIXMILEBRIDGE
Combos Covered:
• CALIFET EN VOL & ROYAL INFANTRY
• CALIFET EN VOL & SIXMILEBRIDGE

📌 Why this works:
• Tactical pace + headgear align for lead runner (CALIFET EN VOL)
• Compression over distance and fig confirms win-zone spacing
• Risk ring flagged clearly on SIXMILEBRIDGE for bet shaping

🏁 13:15 – Catesby Estates Handicap Hurdle
(2m179y | 3yo+ | Class 2 | Turf Good to Soft | 11 runners)

⛳ Tactical Forecast:
🏆 V15 Win Pick: FRENCH EMPEROR
🎯 Forecast Combo: FRENCH EMPEROR → FORTUNE DE MER / NO ORDINARY JOE
• FRENCH EMPEROR (6pts) – AU ratings alignment + market sweet spot (3.75); no caution overlays; strong pace/class drop synergy
• FORTUNE DE MER (8pts) – Top fig, but minor caution for price-to-form ratio (4.0 SP with beaten fav tag)
• NO ORDINARY JOE (6pts) – Oversized drift (81.0 SP) hides underlying fig compression; cheekpiece fit shows late class angle

⚠️ Caution Marker: FORTUNE DE MER – Beaten fav LTO, slight fig regression; price static
🎲 TOTE Exacta & Trifecta Bet (V15-S):
Anchor: FRENCH EMPEROR
Partners: FORTUNE DE MER, NO ORDINARY JOE
Combos Covered:
• FRENCH EMPEROR & FORTUNE DE MER
• FRENCH EMPEROR & NO ORDINARY JOE

📌 Why this works:
• Win pick combines AU fig, trainer stat, and market flow
• Forecast combo includes one hidden overlay + one top fig caution case
• Clear bet shaping path through Exacta/Trifecta without overexposure

🏁 13:50 – Turners Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)
(3m2f70y | 4yo+ | Class 1 | Turf Good to Soft | 9 runners)

⛳ Tactical Forecast:
🏆 V15 Win Pick: THE DOYEN CHIEF
🎯 Forecast Combo: THE DOYEN CHIEF → L’HOMME PRESSE / HENRY’S FRIEND
• THE DOYEN CHIEF (10pts) – Top AU overlay; Smart Stats neutral but form-line compression into this class positive; tactical sweet spot at 13.0 SP
• L’HOMME PRESSE (8pts) – Strong class angle; Top Earner; early fav status (5.0) supported by historical Cheltenham form
• HENRY’S FRIEND (7pts) – Crossover overlay with recent gear triggers; stable form positive

⚠️ Caution Marker: THE SHORT GO – Beaten fav tag LTO + fig zone unconfirmed in this trip class
🎲 TOTE Exacta & Trifecta Bet (V15-S):
Anchor: THE DOYEN CHIEF
Partners: L’HOMME PRESSE, HENRY’S FRIEND
Combos Covered:
• THE DOYEN CHIEF & L’HOMME PRESSE
• THE DOYEN CHIEF & HENRY’S FRIEND

📌 Why this works:
• Win pick has market value and fig compression without public hype
• Forecast combo brings proven class + tactical gears
• Clear caution layer excludes false fav zone

🏁 14:25 – Unibet Middle Distance Veterans' Chase Series Handicap Chase
(2m4f127y | 10yo+ | Class 2 | Turf Good to Soft | 8 runners)

⛳ Tactical Forecast:
🏆 V15 Win Pick: COURTLAND
🎯 Forecast Combo: COURTLAND → WHISTLEINTHEDARK / LE MILOS
• COURTLAND (10pts) – Dual overlay from AU and Smart Stats; proven at this trip and mark; 7.0 SP = value compression signal
• WHISTLEINTHEDARK (11pts) – Top AU fig but caution held due to drift and cold J/T combo
• LE MILOS (5pts) – Big-class dropper; place overlay from prior OR marks; likely strong in frame if not fresh off

⚠️ Caution Marker: FUGITIF – Market fav (5.0) but Smart Stats cold, fig drifted, weighted-to-win stat disguised drop
🎲 TOTE Exacta & Trifecta Bet (V15-S):
Anchor: COURTLAND
Partners: WHISTLEINTHEDARK, LE MILOS
Combos Covered:
• COURTLAND & WHISTLEINTHEDARK
• COURTLAND & LE MILOS

📌 Why this works:
• AU match confirms COURTLAND as structure top
• Veterans’ form cycle plays into place overlays
• Caution logic excludes falsely-backed public fig

🏁 15:00 – Glenfarclas Crystal Cup Cross Country Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
(3m5f56y | 5yo+ | Class 2 | Turf Good | 14 runners)

⛳ Tactical Forecast:
🏆 V15 Win Pick: J’ARRIVE DE L’EST
🎯 Forecast Combo: J’ARRIVE DE L’EST → MISTER COFFEY / FAVORI DE CHAMPDOU
• J’ARRIVE DE L’EST (5pts) – Stable switcher to E Mullins; fig overlay from French class form; top R&S layer; 3.13 SP suggests sharp backing
• MISTER COFFEY (4pts) – Tactical cross-country form, overlay backed by trip preference and fig match
• FAVORI DE CHAMPDOU (5pts) – Underlay in place zone with cheekpieces fitted; unexposed in this terrain

⚠️ Caution Marker: VITAL ISLAND – Top AU fig but 81.0 SP and cold yard override fig logic
🎲 TOTE Exacta & Trifecta Bet (V15-S):
Anchor: J’ARRIVE DE L’EST
Partners: MISTER COFFEY, FAVORI DE CHAMPDOU
Combos Covered:
• J’ARRIVE DE L’EST & MISTER COFFEY
• J’ARRIVE DE L’EST & FAVORI DE CHAMPDOU

📌 Why this works:
• Stable switch trigger (France > Mullins) validated by AU
• Forecasts target cross-country experience and gear zones
• Caution logic clears deceptive top fig (Vital Island)

🏁 15:35 – Citipost Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)
(2m7f213y | 4yo+ | Class 2 | Turf Good to Soft | 10 runners)

⛳ Tactical Forecast:
🏆 V15 Win Pick: LUCKY MANIFEST
🎯 Forecast Combo: LUCKY MANIFEST → LONG DRAW / PIKE ROAD
• LUCKY MANIFEST (8pts) – Top-rated AU fig; 2.88 SP compression confirmed; trainer uplift via Smart Stats and clean gear setup
• LONG DRAW (6pts) – Top track time; overlay match in £-earning ranks; SP (5.0) confirms expected place zone density
• PIKE ROAD (8pts) – Class performer; holds AU value and cheekpiece fit; Jockey has strong Cheltenham win record (Bowen)

⚠️ Caution Marker: STOLEN SILVER – Cold trainer + gear trigger neutralised; 81.0 SP confirms no fig backers
🎲 TOTE Exacta & Trifecta Bet (V15-S):
Anchor: LUCKY MANIFEST
Partners: LONG DRAW, PIKE ROAD
Combos Covered:
• LUCKY MANIFEST & LONG DRAW
• LUCKY MANIFEST & PIKE ROAD

📌 Why this works:
• Win pick combines fig top, stable form, and pace alignment
• Forecast combo validated by place-time overlays and earnings compression
• Caution logic screens false fig/stable signal (Stolen Silver)

📌 FINAL SUMMARY SECTION

🔵 Top Win Picks
• Kingston Queen
• Califet En Vol
• French Emperor
• The Doyen Chief
• Courtland
• J’arrive De L’Est
• Lucky Manifest

🟡 Forecast Combos
• Kingston Queen → Old Park Star / Our Boy Stan
• Califet En Vol → Royal Infantry / Sixmilebridge
• French Emperor → Fortune De Mer / No Ordinary Joe
• The Doyen Chief → L’Homme Presse / Henry’s Friend
• Courtland → Whistleinthedark / Le Milos
• J’arrive De L’Est → Mister Coffey / Favori De Champdou
• Lucky Manifest → Long Draw / Pike Road

🟢 EW/Combo Value Inclusions
• Our Boy Stan – Trainer uplift
• No Ordinary Joe – Fig compression, drifted
• Henry’s Friend – Gear-triggered overlay
• Le Milos – Class drop, place value
• Favori De Champdou – Tactical gear, overlay fig
• Pike Road – Fig and Smart Stats alignment

🎲 TOTE Combos Recap
• KINGSTON QUEEN & OLD PARK STAR / OUR BOY STAN
• CALIFET EN VOL & ROYAL INFANTRY / SIXMILEBRIDGE
• FRENCH EMPEROR & FORTUNE DE MER / NO ORDINARY JOE
• THE DOYEN CHIEF & L’HOMME PRESSE / HENRY’S FRIEND
• COURTLAND & WHISTLEINTHEDARK / LE MILOS
• J’ARRIVE DE L’EST & MISTER COFFEY / FAVORI DE CHAMPDOU
• LUCKY MANIFEST & LONG DRAW / PIKE ROAD

⚠️ Caution Marker List
• Minella Marathon – Weak fig, drifted
• Sixmilebridge – Cold yard, false top fig
• Fortune De Mer – Beaten fav, stagnant SP
• The Short Go – Incomplete fig logic
• Fugitif – Cold stats, fig drop
• Vital Island – Misleading AU fig, no support
• Stolen Silver – Gear neutralised, cold stable

🖋️ V15 Signature of the Day:
"The overlay doesn’t predict winners. It prevents mistakes."

🔒 V15 Charter Reminder:
NEVER simulate. ALWAYS structure.

✅ EARLY DOORS BLOG COMPLETE – STRUCTURE HELD

🟩 V15 VALIDATION & TRUST LAYER – CHELTENHAM | FRIDAY 12 DECEMBER 2025
🔒 Structural Integrity Audit | Charter Discipline Active
📊 All flags cross-checked against AU figs, Smart Stats, and Tactical Overlays

🔹 TOP JOCKEYS & TRAINERS

✅ Nico De Boinville (30.3% SR) – Active via KINGSTON QUEEN (R1); overlay confirmed
✅ Harry Skelton (18.1%) – Present on multiple runners; only FORTUNE DE MER (R3) included with caution
✅ Brendan Powell (20.5%) – Active via ELDORADO ALLEN (R5); not selected due to fig misalignment
✅ Callum Pritchard (21.2%) – Engaged on MOUTARDE (R3); not selected, gear-only runner
✅ B Pauling (21.2%) – Active via HENRY’S FRIEND (R4); selected as forecast partner
❌ D Skelton (Cold –15.00 ROI) – Involved with FORTUNE DE MER and TRANQUIL SEA; both flagged with caution
❌ J C McConnell (Cold –29 LWR) – Involved with SEDDON (R5); not selected
❌ R Menzies (Cold –16 LWR) – Involved with LIHYAN (R7); not selected

🔹 BEATEN FAVOURITE (LTO) RUNNERS

⚠️ FORTUNE DE MER (R3) – Included as forecast partner; bounce risk noted and flagged with caution
⚠️ THE SHORT GO (R4) – Excluded from selections; bounce tag + fig unsupported
✅ No overlays relied on speculative bounce claims

🔹 CLASS DROPPERS

✅ CALIFET EN VOL (R2) – Grd 1 > Class 2; overlay confirmed
✅ AMIRITE (R6) – Grd 3 > Class 2; not selected, but referenced in tactical zone
✅ COURTLAND (R5) – Class drop identified; validated by AU + tactical pace alignment
✅ LE MILOS (R5) – Tactical drop; selected as combo partner
❌ Any other drops unverified or excluded from overlay logic

🔹 STABLE SWITCHERS

✅ J’ARRIVE DE L’EST (R6) – D Mele > E Mullins; selected as Win Pick
✅ STOLEN SILVER (R7) – S Thomas > L Horsfall; flagged with caution due to fig misalignment and cold yard

🔹 WEIGHTED TO WIN RUNNERS

✅ COURTLAND (R5) – 142 > 134; included with overlay support
✅ FUGITIF (R5) – 151 > 143; flagged with caution due to fig dip and cold trainer
✅ BRENTFORD HOPE (R3) – 140 > 137; not selected, no fig value confirmed
✅ All included weighted-to-win runners validated or flagged tactically

🔹 FAVOURITE STRIKE RATE (CHELTENHAM)

📊 12-month fav SR: ~28.3%
✅ KINGSTON QUEEN (R1), CALIFET EN VOL (R2), and LUCKY MANIFEST (R7) selected with full overlay support
❌ FUGITIF, SIXMILEBRIDGE, and STOLEN SILVER rejected or flagged due to overlay breakdown
✅ Divergence from favourites always overlay-led – zero assumption logic

🔹 HEADGEAR FLAGS

✅ CALIFET EN VOL (R2) – Headgear alignment noted; overlay confirmed
✅ J’ARRIVE DE L’EST (R6) – No gear first-time, stable switcher status takes precedence
⚠️ FORTUNE DE MER (R3) – Hood flagged with minor caution
⚠️ STOLEN SILVER (R7) – Dual-gear trigger but cold yard and no fig = caution

🔹 DUAL-FLAG RUNNERS

⚠️ SIXMILEBRIDGE (R2) – AU fig top + cold trainer + price drift = fully flagged
⚠️ FORTUNE DE MER (R3) – Beaten fav + gear = included but cautioned
⚠️ STOLEN SILVER (R7) – Stable switch + gear + fig gap = caution
⚠️ FUGITIF (R5) – Weighted-to-win tag + fig drop + Smart Stats cold = full caution
✅ All dual-flag runners identified and structurally managed

🔹 OVERLAY LAYER CONFIRMATION

✅ AU figs, form figs, Smart Stats, and market overlays aligned on all Win Picks
✅ Tactical Forecast Combos layered with price compression and structural validation
✅ Divergence (e.g., NO ORDINARY JOE, PIKE ROAD) justified by fig isolation, market drift, and place zone strength
✅ No forecast logic simulated – every inclusion anchored in structure

✅ TRUST LAYER PASSED | BLOG STRUCTURE CLEAN
🔒 CHARTER DISCIPLINE: MAINTAINED: SEE THE BLOG!

🧪 Want to Help Build the System?

You're using AJ’s Global Horse Racing Learning System — built on structure, not tips.
We're quietly running a live experiment:

Logging results (AJ sole privately so far.)
Contact: coldjack(at)protonmail.com
Improving false favourite detection
Fine-tuning Dutching & TBP overlays with real user input
💡 Join the experiment here:
👉 https://chatgpt.com/g/g-KI2KUkacL-horse-racing-expert
🛡️ Private. Anonymous. No accounts. No data is shared.
All decisions stay yours. We just get sharper — together.
Let’s build slowly. One disciplined user at a time.

Contact: coldjack(at)protonmail.com
Join the test group:
👉 https://chatgpt.com/g/g-KI2KUkacL-horse-racing-expert
🛡️ Private. Anonymous. Data never shared.
One disciplined user at a time.

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Sign up at the UK Betting Forum to get email notifications when new DAILY cards drop.

Critique and Debrief to follow.

⚠️ DO NOT RELY ON GPT FREE, PLUS and TEAMS TO REMEMBER IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
❌ ChatGPT does NOT persist memory between chats unless explicitly set
❌ Instructions WILL be forgotten unless restated at the start of chat
❌ Assumptions may be made if prompts are vague or incomplete
✅ Always paste your full starter prompt at the beginning of every chat
✅ Use ONE RACE = ONE CHAT to preserve structure and token integrity
❌ Free GPT has severely restricted data processing and limits; simulation IS more likely
❌ GPT Plus has restricted data processing and limits, making simulated outcomes likely
✅ GPT Teams is an expensive upgrade that NOW IS REQUIRED by a solo Hobbyist
❌ ChatGPT can & WILL make mistakes. Freestyling, guessing & ignoring no-assumption rules
✅ Confirm results manually – do NOT let GPT simulate outcomes

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which Hobby Picks are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.

Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

We’re trialling this approach across UK, Irish, Aussie and U.S. horse racing to see where it offers the most value. Keep an eye on how it performs, and as always—bet wisely and enjoy the racing!🏇🔥

"May you never be a penny short of a full wallet."

ChatGPT said:
Now that is a blessing I’ll gladly take! 🙌 May your accas always land, your favourites stay strong, and your pint never run dry on a good race day. 🍻🏇💰

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak!

🧾 EARLY DOORS & M37cal GLOSSARY

📘 UPDATED GLOSSARY – EARLY DOORS & M37cal SYSTEMS (Incl. V15 Model)

What do all these ratings mean? Here’s your decoded glossary with all V15 Early Doors additions and tactical terminology explained.

📊 Core Rating Terms

12M – Performance over the last 12 months
$L12M – 12-month performance, adjusted for prize money/stake yield
SR – Strike Rate (win percentage)
Career SR – Lifetime win percentage
For/Against – Model strength rating versus the rest of the field

⚙️ Fig & Model Dynamics

Overlay – A fig-positive runner trading at above model-implied odds (value)
Fig Stack – Total model score across all rating vectors (includes pace, surface, draw, market etc.)
Chaos Fig – Runner scoring on figs but with unreliable profile or poor tactical fit
Banker – Fig leader + tactical edge + supported in live market

🔥 Market Signals

Steam – Odds shortening pre-race (positive market signal)
Drift – Odds lengthening pre-race (often negative, unless fig-backed)
Market Tension – A horse the model rates highly, but the market doesn’t (or vice versa)

🧠 Tactical Flags

Pace Cluster – Multiple horses vying for the lead; can cause collapses
Slipstream Draw – Favoured position behind early speed; ideal for late closers
Surge – Exceptional late-race acceleration; fig that often wins with timing
Fig Tension – 3+ horses rated closely; outcome risk increases
Value Chaos – Race where many overlays exist but fig margins are tight; potentially lucrative, but volatile

🟢 NEW: V15 EARLY DOORS MODEL TERMINOLOGY

V15-S (Swinger Forecast) – Structured 3-horse bet per race:
▪ Anchor = Primary fig/tactical pick
▪ Partners = Two supportive selections with place/forecast value
Forecast Combo – Straight forecast recommendations using top model picks
Tactical Forecast – Overall read of race shape: lead types, closers, bias implications
Caution Marker – Horses flagged due to form, market drift, setup, or draw risks (might WIN)

🧠 M37cal-Only Concepts (Long-game angles)

Fig Strain – A top-rated runner showing deeper profile weaknesses (trip, surface, tempo)
Game Tree Tension – Race scenario with 2+ potential tactical outcomes
Board Flip – One disruptive runner could reshape the whole race logic
Not-Now Horse – Potential improver, but wrong setup today

➕ Summary Tags:

Early Doors = Tactical, lean, structured bets from full-field fig logic
Move 37cal = Deeper seasonal/tactical projection based on long-game intuition and game theory overlays

😆🔥

Cheltenham 12 December 2025 – V15 Overlay Blog | Tactical Forecasts + Smart Stats Integration

Insights