Cheltenham Gold Cup 2024: Finding Value in a One-Horse Race

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
19th to 25th January 2025
Starting Bankroll £30
5th March 2025 top-up total £90
Wk 1 £35 Wk 2 £32.01 Wk 3 -£18.12
Wk 4 £30.31 WK 5 £33.76 Wk 6 -£20.39
Wk 7 £37.14

WEEK 8 £39.72 (4th top-up £30)
Sun - £16.34 Lucky 15 Strategy
Mon - -£5.00 Lucky 15 Strategy
Tue - -£6.64 Lucky 15 Strategy
Wed - -£5.75 Lucky 15 Strategy
Thrs - £3.62 Lucky 15 Strategy
Fri - £
Sat - £
Combination Tricast Betting Strategy A one-off experiment Return £2.50 25/2/25

Note from Coldjack: "Lucky 15 Cheltenham Day 4". We are back in the winner's enclosure! Hobby(GPT) acted like a petulant teenager and nearly caused me to miss getting the L15 on in time. But, at least it came mighty close to a good payout. Can another "flash-in-the-pan" be waiting to drop? Only way to find out... We GIVE IT another go!

Betfair Sportsbook odds were placed at

The Lucky 15 bet is well-structured for maximum value, and if all four selections win, that £7.50 stake could return a payout of £

Stakes £7.50 Winning £00.00 (P/L) losing £0.00

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥

Modest returns for the 'Trickey Trixie'
Patent punting for the 'zsar bomba' of booms!
(1pt = £1 Pick Your Own Point Level & Runners)

Laying Galopin Des Champs: Is There Any Edge?

At 1.57 - 1.6, the market implies he has a 63-64% chance of winning. But do the numbers justify a lay?

Arguments for a Lay:

• Gold Cup is unpredictable – A gruelling 3m2½f test where even greats have fallen or underperformed.

• Even short-priced favourites lose – History is littered with Gold Cup favourites beaten at odds-on.

• Single-digit chance of losing still exists – A bad jump, strong pace, or unexpected challenger could expose him.

Arguments against a Lay:

• He’s simply the best horse – He’s already beaten these rivals convincingly this season.

• Course & Distance suits him perfectly – Unlike some rivals, he has no stamina doubts.

• Not enough value in a lay – If he wins (which is very likely), laying him is a straight loss.

Verdict: If you think his real win chance is 90-95%, laying him at 1.6 is a losing strategy long-term. Instead, look for value elsewhere.

Finding an Edge: ‘Without Galopin Des Champs’ Market

Since laying the favourite doesn’t offer value, let’s turn to the 'Without Favourite' market, where the real betting action is.

Key Market Prices (Win Without Galopin Des Champs)

• Inothewayurthinkin (3.05 - 3.35) – Strong market support, stamina horse.

• Banbridge (3.3 - 3.7) – Market believes in him, but stamina is a question.

• Montys Star (5.0 - 6.0) – Potential dark horse for 2nd place.

• Corbetts Cross (9.2 - 13.0) – Drifting, inconsistent season.

• The Real Whacker (15.0 - 30.0) – Likely front-runner but a long shot.

Best Betting Strategy

1️⃣ Back Inothewayurthinkin (3.05 - 3.35)

This looks like the best bet for a Without Favourite selection.

• Stamina is his weapon – The Gold Cup trip will suit him more than Banbridge.

• Market confidence – Holding firm around 3.1, showing support.

• Close to Galopin Des Champs in Irish Gold Cup – He finished just 7¼ lengths behind.

Best bet: Back Inothewayurthinkin to finish 2nd (Without Galopin Des Champs market).

2️⃣ Lay Banbridge (3.3 - 3.7)

Banbridge has the ability, but there are reasons to oppose him at the price.

• Unproven beyond 3 miles – The King George was a different race, this is tougher.

• Prefers quicker ground – If conditions aren’t ideal, he could struggle.

• If the pace is strong, he may get outstayed.

Best bet: Lay Banbridge in the ‘Without’ market if you doubt his stamina.

3️⃣ Small Bet on Montys Star (5.0 - 6.0)

If you want an outside shot, Montys Star has potential.

• Stamina a big asset – He finished just behind Inothewayurthinkin in the Irish Gold Cup.

• Rachael Blackmore effect – She gets the best out of stayers.

• Bigger odds for a better return.

Best bet: Back Montys Star small stakes for value.

Final Takeaway

While Galopin Des Champs looks near unbeatable, there’s better value in betting ‘Without’ than trying to lay him at odds-on.

Best Bet: Back Inothewayurthinkin (3.1 - 3.35) to finish 2nd.
Risky Bet: Lay Banbridge (3.3 - 3.7) if you doubt his stamina.
Outside Bet: Back Montys Star (5.0 - 6.0) as a dark horse for 2nd place.

The Cheltenham Gold Cup is always a war of attrition—let’s hope for an exciting one! 🏇🔥

Waiting Room

Lucky 15 Bet

Gamble Responsibly! Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which Hobby Picks are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.
Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

🏇 Race-by-Race Predictions

Early Doors predictions with BF Sports book prices are still to be analysed.

We’re trialling this approach across UK, Irish, and U.S. racing to see where it offers the most value. Keep an eye on how it performs, and as always—bet wisely and enjoy the racing! 🏇🔥

"May you never be a penny short of a full wallet."

ChatGPT said:

Now that is a blessing I’ll gladly take! 🙌 May your accas always land, your favourites stay strong, and your pint never run dry on a good race day. 🍻🏇💰

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥