Chepstow – 9th February 2025

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
Starting Bankroll £30
Top Ups to Bankroll £00.00
19th to 25th January 2025
Wk 1 £35 Wk 2 £32.01 Wk 3 -£18.12

WEEK 4 £11.58
Sun - -£07.50
Mon - £00.00
Tue - £00.00
Wed - £00.00
Thrs - £00.00
Fri - £00.00
Sat - £0.00

Note from Coldjack: Yesterday, yet again the Patent turned into an overall loss despite an e/w patent & a winner. week 3 is the first time we go into the red. nothing changes, we go again!

Trixie @4 Lines
Juby Ball | As Legends Have It | Jalisco Star
Stake £4.00 (4 x £1.00)
Returns £36.00

(Each Way) Patent @14 Lines
Dyno Dave | Heros De Romay | Ottoline
Stake £3.50 (14 x £0.25)
Returns £146.31

Stakes £7.50 Winning £0.00 losing £7.50
Modest returns for the 'Trickey Trixie'
Patent punting for the 'zsar bomba' of booms!
(1pt = £1 Pick Your Own Point Level & Runners)

Betting Debrief: Lessons from Chepstow – 9th February 2025

After reviewing the blog’s pre-race selections against the actual results at Chepstow, it’s time to break down what went right, what went wrong, and what adjustments should be made for future betting strategy.

🏆 Trixie Bet #1 – The Consistency Play

The first Trixie was designed to be a lower-risk option, focusing on solid, reliable selections.

• Juby Ball (1/4 Fav) – 1st ✅

• As Legends Have It (9/4) – 3rd ❌

• Jalisco Star – Unplaced ❌

Juby Ball delivered as expected, comfortably winning the 13:20 Novices' Hurdle and proving that class counts at this level. However, As Legends Have It could only manage third in the 13:50 Maiden Hurdle. While he ran respectably, he never looked like overhauling Royal Rambler (6/1) and Shade Of Winter (6/4 Fav). The biggest disappointment was Jalisco Star, who was well-fancied but didn’t even make the frame.

With just one winner, this Trixie was a loss. At least two winners were needed for a solid return, and the complete miss from Jalisco Star undermined any potential profit.

🎯 Trixie Bet #2 – The All-Ways Patent

The second multiple was a riskier Patent, designed to chase bigger returns with some less exposed types.

• Dyno Dave – Unplaced ❌

• Heros De Romay (7/2) – 4th ❌

• Ottoline – Unplaced ❌

This one never really got going. Dyno Dave’s debut run was too weak to feature prominently in the 13:50 Maiden Hurdle. Heros De Romay ran better than last time but could only manage fourth in the 14:50 Novices' Handicap Chase. Ottoline was unplaced in the 15:20 Handicap Chase, which was won by The Midwife (11/4 Fav).

With no winners at all, this Patent resulted in a total loss.

🏇 Full Race Analysis – Blog Predictions vs. Results

Breaking down each race shows a mixture of strong calls, near misses, and outright failures.

In the 13:20 Novices' Hurdle, the blog nailed the top two, with Juby Ball winning easily and Ben Solo finishing second. This was the strongest prediction of the day.

In the 13:50 Maiden Hurdle, As Legends Have It (3rd) and Shade Of Winter (2nd) both performed well, but Royal Rambler (6/1) got the win. The winner was overlooked, which cost a potential return.

The 14:20 Mares’ Handicap Hurdle was a major miss, with Jalisco Star failing to feature. The race was won by Getaway Theatre (11/1), a horse not picked in the blog’s selections. Love Of Neymore (3rd) was the best performer from the picks, but the winner provided big value.

The 14:50 Novices' Handicap Chase saw Heros De Romay finish fourth, but the clear winner was Donnacha (2/1 Fav), a selection that should have been prioritised.

In the 15:20 Handicap Chase, Phantom Getaway (4th) ran well but was outclassed. Ottoline failed to place, making this another poor result.

The 15:55 Handicap Hurdle saw Coconut Twist finish third and Decorated fourth, meaning the blog picks were in the mix but not enough to find the winner. Richardson (16/1) pulled off a surprise, highlighting the need to identify more overlooked value picks.

The 16:30 Handicap Hurdle had River Voyage (2nd) and Pipers Cross (3rd) both placing, but Lightonthewing (33/1) was a total shock winner.

📌 Key Takeaways

The biggest positive was Juby Ball winning with ease, justifying his strong market position. However, the failure to find any other winners in the multiples meant a frustrating day overall.

Several key misses stood out. Getaway Theatre (11/1), Richardson (16/1), and Lightonthewing (33/1) were not considered, despite showing elements of potential. This highlights an over-reliance on "safe" runners, which doesn’t always lead to profitable results.

The Patent bet in particular showed that high-risk selections need to have stronger reasoning behind them. Too many unexposed types were included without solid form evidence.

🔮 Betting Adjustments for Next Time

1️⃣ Identify More Value Outsiders
Horses like Getaway Theatre (11/1), Richardson (16/1), and Lightonthewing (33/1) were completely ignored. Going forward, the blog needs to strike a better balance between safe picks and overlooked value options.

2️⃣ Stronger Favourite-Based Multiples for Stability
The first Trixie was the right idea, but it fell apart when Jalisco Star failed to place. More solid combinations of favourites and in-form horses should be prioritised to give a better strike rate.

3️⃣ Monitor Market Moves Closer to the Race
Late drifters and steamers need to be factored into final selections more. Jockey bookings, trainer confidence, and late market support can provide crucial clues.

4️⃣ Avoid Over-Reliance on Debutants in Multiples
Dyno Dave was included in the Patent, but there was no real evidence to back the selection beyond yard reputation. Betting multiples require runners with proven form.

5️⃣ Reassess Trainer Trends on Heavy Ground
Venetia Williams usually thrives in deep ground, yet none of her runners featured in the multiples. Future selections should pay closer attention to trainer strike rates on testing ground conditions.

Final Thoughts

The blog’s Chepstow predictions were hit and miss, with Juby Ball standing out as the one major success. The lack of winners elsewhere hurt overall profitability, and key value winners were missed. However, with some tweaks to selection strategy, future results should be far more consistent.

On to the next race day – with smarter selections and better balance!

Pre Race Predictions

Trixie Bet #1: The Consistency Play (Lower-risk, solid selections)

Selections:

1️⃣ Juby Ball – 13:20 Chepstow (2m Novices' Hurdle)

• Trainer: Evan Williams | Jockey: Adam Wedge

• Key Factors: Impressive debut hurdle win at Ffos Las on heavy ground. Looks a highly promising type despite the 7 lb penalty.

• Recent Form: 1st in debut hurdle at Ffos Las.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆

2️⃣ As Legends Have It – 13:50 Chepstow (2m3½f Maiden Hurdle)

• Trainer: Ben Pauling | Jockey: Ben Jones

• Key Factors: Consistent performer, placed in both hurdle starts, including a solid third at Doncaster over this trip. Should be knocking on the door for a maiden win.

• Recent Form: 3rd at Doncaster (19½f, good to soft).

• Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆

3️⃣ Jalisco Star – 14:20 Chepstow (2m7f Handicap Hurdle)

• Trainer: Laura Horsfall | Jockey: Kevin Brogan

• Key Factors: Back-to-back wins at Ascot and Ffos Las over 3m before a narrow defeat at Warwick over 3m1f. Stamina and soft-ground form are in her favour.

• Recent Form: 2nd at Warwick (3m1f, soft).

• Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆

📌 Bet Type: Trixie (4 bets: 3 doubles + 1 treble)
🎯 Focus: Two winners secure a strong return; three winners bring significant profit.

Trixie Bet #2: The All-Ways Patent (Higher-risk, bigger potential returns)

Selections:

1️⃣ Dyno Dave – 13:50 Chepstow (2m3½f Maiden Hurdle)

• Trainer: Nicky Henderson | Jockey: Freddie Gordon

• Key Factors: Unraced, but from a top yard known for readying hurdle debutants. Any market support would be a strong indicator.

• Recent Form: N/A (debut).

• Confidence Rating: ★★★☆☆

2️⃣ Heros De Romay – 14:50 Chepstow (2m3f Novices' Handicap Chase)

• Trainer: Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls | Jockey: C. Gethings

• Key Factors: Useful over hurdles, showed promise on chase debut but disappointed last time. Now fitted with a visor, which could spark improvement.

• Recent Form: Unplaced at Uttoxeter (2m4f, soft).

• Confidence Rating: ★★★☆☆

3️⃣ Ottoline – 15:20 Chepstow (2m7f Handicap Chase)

• Trainer: Venetia Williams | Jockey: Charlie Deutsch

• Key Factors: Showed more last time when third at Haydock. Handles heavy ground, and trainer excels with chasers in these conditions.

• Recent Form: 3rd at Haydock (3m, heavy).

• Confidence Rating: ★★★☆☆

📌 Bet Type: Patent (7 bets: 3 singles, 3 doubles, 1 treble)
🎯 Focus: One winner covers much of the stake, two winners yield profit, and three winners result in a great return.

Final Thoughts:

No changes required to the Trixie or Patent due to Captain Bellamy's withdrawal.

Good luck, and bet responsibly! 🎯

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which 'obby Picks (dropping Hs since the dog chewed my denture) are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.
Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

Full Card

🏇 Race 1 - 13:20 Chepstow (2m Novices' Hurdle)

1️⃣ Juby Ball
Trainer: Evan Williams | Jockey: Adam Wedge
Key Form: Impressive debut hurdle win at Ffos Las on heavy ground, following a solid bumper campaign. Looks a highly promising type.
Why: Juby Ball left a strong impression on hurdles debut, travelling well before asserting dominance late on. The market has him as a clear favourite, and with conditions and race dynamics in his favour, he should take all the beating under a 7 lb penalty.

2️⃣ Ben Solo
Trainer: Rebecca Curtis | Jockey: Ben Jones
Key Form: Won over C&D in October and ran a career-best when runner-up in a Ffos Las novice over 2m4f last time.
Why: A proven winner at Chepstow and has already shown ability in testing conditions. He’ll benefit from stepping back to 2m after a solid staying effort last time. A reliable sort who should be in the frame again.

3️⃣ Luna De Castana
Trainer: Georgina Nicholls | Jockey: Finn Lambert
Key Form: Took a major step forward last time when finishing fifth in a Warwick novice hurdle over 2m3f.
Why: A lightly raced type who showed definite promise last time out. The drop back in trip could help, and with further improvement likely, she looks a credible each-way player at big odds.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Ballymena Boy
Trainer: Robbie Llewellyn | Jockey: Liam Harrison
Key Form: Runner-up in a point before finishing fourth in a bumper at Stratford.
Why: Could be a dark horse on hurdles debut, having shown some promise in the pointing field. While the form isn’t standout, he’s unexposed and could take a big step forward here at a price.

🏇 Race 2 - 13:50 Chepstow (2m3f Maiden Hurdle)

1️⃣ Shade Of Winter
Trainer: Evan Williams | Jockey: Adam Wedge
Key Form: Placed in all three starts over 2m at this track, improving to finish second on Welsh Grand National day. Should appreciate the step up in trip.
Why: Shade Of Winter has been steadily improving with every run and was only beaten two lengths here last time. The longer distance should suit, and with solid course form in the book, he looks primed to break his maiden in a competitive heat.

2️⃣ As Legends Have It
Trainer: Ben Pauling | Jockey: Ben Jones
Key Form: Bumper winner who has placed in two starts over hurdles, including at Doncaster and Kempton over similar trips.
Why: A consistent type with a strong bumper pedigree, he’s shown plenty of ability over hurdles and is knocking on the door for a maiden win. He’s proven over this trip and should be in the mix once again.

3️⃣ Royal Rambler
Trainer: Emma Lavelle | Jockey: J J Burke
Key Form: Third on hurdles debut at Leicester (20.5f, heavy) but underwhelming last time at Ffos Las.
Why: He showed enough on debut to suggest he has potential, and although he was below-par last time, he remains lightly raced. If he bounces back to his Leicester form, he has a solid each-way chance at decent odds.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Dyno Dave
Trainer: Nicky Henderson | Jockey: Freddie Gordon
Key Form: Unraced but hails from a top stable that excels with hurdling newcomers.
Why: Henderson’s yard is known for getting horses ready first time out, and with little depth beyond the top two in the market, he could make an impact on debut if the money comes for him. A lively outsider to keep an eye on.

🏇 Race 3 - 14:20 Chepstow (2m7f Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Love Of Neymore
Trainer: Robbie Llewellyn | Jockey: Charlie Price
Key Form: Progressive mare who has won two handicaps around 2½m, including at Chepstow. Solid fourth in a big field at Wincanton last time.
Why: She’s been improving steadily and handles testing ground well. If her stamina holds at this longer trip, she looks primed for another big run. The Chepstow win is a notable positive, and her current form suggests she remains on an upward curve.

2️⃣ Jalisco Star
Trainer: Laura Horsfall | Jockey: K. Brogan
Key Form: Back-to-back wins at Ascot and Ffos Las over 3m before a narrow defeat at Warwick over 3m1f.
Why: A stayer in red-hot form who has improved markedly in recent outings. With conditions in her favour and a slight rise in the weights, she remains a big contender. Her proven stamina over this trip makes her a serious threat.

3️⃣ Phillapa Sue
Trainer: David Killahena & Graeme McPherson | Jockey: Tom Cannon
Key Form: Second in a competitive 3m handicap at Doncaster before a fair fourth at Newbury.
Why: She’s been running consistently in staying handicaps and has shown she can hold her own in mixed-gender fields. This return to a mares' race should suit, and she’s likely to be competitive again.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Getaway Theatre
Trainer: Stuart Edmunds | Jockey: C. Gethings
Key Form: Point winner who won on hurdles debut over a similar trip but has struggled in novice chases this season.
Why: Back over hurdles with a tongue tie fitted, she could show significant improvement. If she rediscovers her old form, she’s capable of running into a place at a price.

🏇 Race 4 - 14:50 Chepstow (2m3f Novices' Handicap Chase)

1️⃣ Donnacha
Trainer: Nigel Hawke | Jockey: Lorcan Murtagh
Key Form: Consistent over hurdles and now finding his feet over fences, winning a novice handicap chase at Exeter on New Year's Day.
Why: A likeable type who keeps improving, Donnacha beat a subsequent winner last time out and still looks fairly treated with just a 4 lb rise. Proven on testing ground and at the trip, he looks the one to beat.

2️⃣ The Famous Five
Trainer: Venetia Williams | Jockey: Charlie Deutsch
Key Form: A dual hurdle winner who scored at Newbury over fences before struggling at Haydock last time after making errors.
Why: His trainer excels with chasers, and if he can iron out the mistakes from his last run, he should be right in the mix. Conditions should suit, and he's capable of bouncing back with a cleaner round of jumping.

3️⃣ Hurricane Highway
Trainer: Evan Williams | Jockey: Adam Wedge
Key Form: Point-to-point winner who placed on two of his first three chase starts and was a solid second at Ffos Las last time.
Why: He's lightly raced over fences and has been running well in deep ground. While his form isn't the strongest, he has the scope to progress and should be competitive again.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Heros De Romay
Trainer: Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls | Jockey: C. Gethings
Key Form: Fairly useful over hurdles and showed promise on chase debut before a lacklustre run at Uttoxeter. Now fitted with a visor.
Why: The headgear could bring improvement, and his hurdles form suggests he has more to offer over fences. If he puts his last run behind him, he could run into a place at a decent price.

🏇 Race 5 - 15:20 Chepstow (2m7f Handicap Chase)

1️⃣ Chatshow Tv
Trainer: Warren Greatrex | Jockey: Harry Bannister
Key Form: Encouraging third on chase debut at Warwick last month, building on a strong second over hurdles at Chepstow in October. Clearly improving and well-treated off 108.
Why: A progressive profile and proven stamina make him a leading player here. His chase debut was full of promise, and with natural improvement expected, he looks ready to strike. The market support suggests confidence, and he handles soft conditions well.

2️⃣ Phantom Getaway
Trainer: Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls | Jockey: Ciaran Gethings
Key Form: Much improved this season, finishing runner-up at Ffos Las before a solid third at Newbury. Has benefited from a breathing operation and a tongue tie.
Why: This gelding has turned a corner after struggling last season and now looks like a reliable performer over fences. He stays the trip well and has the class to be competitive, though he may just find one too good again.

3️⃣ The Midwife
Trainer: Grace Harris | Jockey: Joe Anderson
Key Form: Placed on chase debut over this course and distance recently and has been running consistently well in staying contests.
Why: Proven over course and trip, she’s an honest, game mare who keeps plugging away. Her second here last time suggests she’ll be in the mix again, though she might lack the finishing kick to win outright.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Ottoline
Trainer: Venetia Williams | Jockey: Charlie Deutsch
Key Form: Showed more on her latest start when third at Haydock, shaping as though this sort of test would suit.
Why: Venetia Williams excels with chasers in deep ground, and Ottoline has been slowly working her way back into form. She has a touch of class and could be underestimated in the market, making her an intriguing each-way option.

🏇 Race 6 - 15:55 Chepstow (2m3f Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Jukebox Joker
Trainer: Evan Williams | Jockey: Isabel Williams
Key Form: Showed significant improvement when fourth in a Ffos Las handicap hurdle last time, with that form working out well. Lightly raced and retains potential.
Why: This 5-year-old has been steadily progressing and ran an eye-catching race last time. With conditions to suit and off the same mark, he looks poised to capitalise on his recent improvement. Strong chance.

2️⃣ Wonderweasle
Trainer: Tim Vaughan | Jockey: Alan Johns
Key Form: Consistent mare who was placed in her last three starts, including a solid third at Uttoxeter over 2m6f on heavy ground. First-time tongue strap applied.
Why: Reliable and proven in testing conditions, she stays well and rarely runs a bad race. With stamina assured, she should be thereabouts at the finish once again.

3️⃣ Coconut Twist
Trainer: Daisy Hitchins | Jockey: Mr Robbie David
Key Form: Landed a gamble when winning a big-field Exeter handicap last month. Up 6lb for that effort but remains competitive.
Why: Clearly well-handicapped when winning last time, and while the rise in weights demands more, he remains a strong contender in a field lacking standout form. Should go close.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Decorated
Trainer: Oliver Signy | Jockey: Ben Jones
Key Form: Poor chase form this season but is well-handicapped if a return to hurdles sparks improvement.
Why: A risky but intriguing prospect back over hurdles. He was running off marks in the 110s last year, so off 100 today, he could bounce back if he recaptures his old form. Worth a speculative each-way play.

🏇 Race 7 - 16:30 Chepstow (2m7f Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Pride Of Paris
Trainer: Harry Derham | Jockey: Alice Stevens
Key Form: Won on handicap hurdle debut last season but failed to complete on both subsequent outings. Now switched to a new yard after 9 months off.
Why: This is an intriguing runner making his stable debut for Harry Derham. He’s still unexposed in handicaps and could have plenty more to offer at this level. If fit after the break, he looks the one to beat in a moderate contest.

2️⃣ Pipers Cross
Trainer: Emma Lavelle | Jockey: Cameron Johnstone-Baker
Key Form: Consistent mare who has placed on her last two runs, including a solid third at Exeter over this trip. Stays well and wears cheekpieces again.
Why: She’s a proven stayer with rock-solid recent form. With conditions in her favour and a decent 5lb claimer aboard, she should be right in the mix once again.

3️⃣ River Voyage
Trainer: Rebecca Curtis | Jockey: Ben Jones
Key Form: Point winner who has yet to fully click under rules but has shown some promise in similar conditions.
Why: A tricky horse to assess, but he has ability, and this step back to hurdles with headgear removed could be the key to a better performance. His best form gives him an outside chance of making the frame.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Im A Starman
Trainer: Mark Rimell | Jockey: Freddie Mitchell
Key Form: A veteran who has been given a chance by the handicapper and has placed a few times in staying handicaps.
Why: At 12, he’s not getting any younger, but he’s on a dangerous mark and has some decent form in testing conditions. If he rolls back the years, he could run into a place at a big price.