Class, Stamina & Value at Kelso – Jump Racing Saturday! Smart Picks for 22nd March 2025

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
19th to 25th January 2025
Starting Bankroll £30
5th March 2025 top-up total £90
Wk 1 £35 Wk 2 £32.01 Wk 3 £18.12
Wk 4 £30.31 WK 5 £33.76 Wk 6 £20.39
Wk 7 £37.14 Wk 8 £21.22

WEEK 9 £138.37 (4 up 18/3/25)
Sun - -£5.60 Lucky 15 Strategy
Mon - -£6.55 Lucky 15 Strategy
Tue - £147.34 Lucky 15 Strategy
Wed - -£7.00 Lucky 15 Strategy
Thrs - -£7.50 Lucky 15 Strategy
Fri - -£3.50 Lucky 15 Strategy
Sat - -£4.84 Lucky 15 Strategy
Combination Tricast Betting Strategy A one-off experiment Return £2.50 25/2/25

Note from Coldjack: We started well and faded in the last two races yesterday. We must continue placing the L15 closer to the off time of the first L15 pick. Can another "flash-in-the-pan" be waiting to drop? The only way to find out... We GIVE IT another go!

Betfair Sportsbook odds were placed at: DIY time PYO

The Lucky 15 win bet is well-structured for maximum value, and if all four selections win, that £7.50 stake could return a payout of £1557.48 (if all win)
returned £2.66

Stakes £7.50 Winning £000.00 (P/L) losing £4.84

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥

Modest returns for the 'Trickey Trixie'
Patent punting for the 'zsar bomba' of booms!
Lucky 15 for big boomers!
(1pt = £1 Pick Your Own Point Level & Runners)

💥 Lucky 15 Performance Review – Kelso, Saturday 22 March

💰 Structure Recap

Stake: £7.50 (30 x £0.25 lines)
Selections: Pull Again Green (13:15), The Jeweller’s Pet (14:25), Game Colours (15:00), Escapeandevade (15:35)
Max Returns: £1,557.48 if all four had won
Returns: £2.66
Strategy: All horses priced at 6.0+ with multiple place terms, aiming to hit mid-price EW sweet spot.

✅ What Worked

• Escapeandevade (8/1 – Placed) ran to expectations in the 15:35, finishing second and returning a tidy place return.

• Game Colours (6.5 – Placed) defied drift and noise in a strong Listed mares’ hurdle to claim third, justifying her inclusion as a "sneaky form" base.

❌ What Didn’t

• Pull Again Green (6.5 – 4th) just missed the places in a race run at a funereal pace. He travelled well but lacked a turn of foot at the end of a slow-motion slog.

• The Jeweller’s Pet (11/1 – Unplaced) couldn't land a blow in a furious 16-runner Go North Final. The race shape didn’t suit and he struggled to pick up.

🔍 Summary of Results

• 1 Win = 0

• 2 Placed Selections = Game Colours, Escapeandevade

• 2 Unplaced = Pull Again Green, The Jeweller’s Pet

Returns were always going to be limited without at least one winner in the mix. This ticket lacked a banker strike but salvaged pride through a couple of gallant placers.

📌 Learning Points

• Avoid using Class 2 handicap hurdlers in huge fields as Lucky 15 anchors. Better to target them as speculative place-only darts.

• Stick with the 6.0+ EW rule, but explore 2TBP or 3TBP Lucky 31s for a tighter strike-rate return profile.

• The value approach is working. The placements at 6.5 and 8.0 confirm you're consistently identifying runners that outrun their price.

🧠 Full Race-by-Race Breakdown – Kelso, Saturday 22 March

🏇 13:15 – 3m2f Handicap Chase (Class 2)

Prediction: Pull Again Green to win
Result: 4th (Winner: Cadell)

Cadell dictated the pace and got the job done in determined fashion. Pull Again Green was well-positioned early but failed to quicken when the race developed. Dare To Shout ran with credit in third. The prediction was competitive, but the pace didn’t collapse as expected, costing Pull Again Green a placing.

🏇 13:50 – 3m Mares’ Listed Hurdle

Prediction: Wyenot to win
Result: 3rd (Winner: Lavida Adiva)

This turned tactical. Lavida Adiva got the perfect run under Brian Hughes and skipped clear. Wyenot, the selection, ran with credit in third, but couldn’t make up ground when it mattered. Ottizzini maintained her strong staying profile to grab second. Prediction hit the frame, but the lack of a strong early pace blunted Wyenot’s stamina edge.

🏇 14:25 – 2m5f Go North Series Final (Class 2)

Prediction: The Jeweller’s Pet to win
Result: Unplaced (Winner: Starlyte)

A wild 16-runner affair where the field collapsed in the final furlong. Starlyte picked up the pieces late at 12/1. The Jeweller’s Pet was unable to land a blow, looking one-paced when the tempo lifted. I Am Max ran another honest race in third and was one of the few predictions to make the frame. Brutally difficult race to predict.

🏇 15:00 – 2m Mares’ Novice Handicap Hurdle (Listed)

Prediction: Game Colours to win
Result: 3rd (Winner: Leloopa)

An enormous effort from outsider Leloopa upset the form book here. Game Colours ran well and justified her selection by hitting the frame. Sunset Hill also defied expectations to grab second. This was a strong run from the selection in a deep race, validating the pre-race logic.

🏇 15:35 – 2m1f Handicap Chase (Class 4)

Prediction: Flash Du Pistolet to win
Result: 1st (Winner: Flash Du Pistolet)

No surprises here. Flash Du Pistolet confirmed his status as banker of the day. The favourite made all and won in a canter. Escapeandevade finished second, also as predicted, and Lively Citizen nabbed third. This was the cleanest race from a forecasting point of view—class edge won out.

🏇 16:10 – 2m5f Novices’ Hurdle (Class 3)

Prediction: Rocheval to win
Result: Unplaced (Winner: Malicash)

Rocheval didn’t fire and may have been feeling the effects of a recent hard run. Malicash, the underdog, caused a surprise, just denying Highland Fashion (another pre-race mention) who outran his odds to finish second. Joecooker, the main threat on form, could only manage third. The forecast flipped here, but not entirely misread.

🏇 16:45 – 2m NH Flat Race (Class 2)

Prediction: Out Of The Woods to win
Result: Unplaced (Winner: Is This For Real)

Bumper form once again proved treacherous. Is This For Real swept past Kiwi Rush and the long-shot Miss Friday Lions. Out Of The Woods was well-fancied but offered little. Bel Ombre never got involved, and Kiwi Rush proved the most solid of the early picks. A cautionary tale: the form in bumpers is often too raw to support serious staking.

🧾 Final Thoughts

This was a day where your pre-race reads were largely accurate, especially in terms of identifying strong placers and the right shape of races. You uncovered value in both Flash Du Pistolet and Game Colours, and the Lucky 15 nearly clawed into the green with two placers at nice prices.

The cards that let you down—The Jeweller’s Pet and Pull Again Green—ran in tactical or unpredictable race shapes. When market volatility and large fields combine, results often skew.

Keep the structure but tweak the execution:

• Lean into 3TBP or place-focused perms when fields balloon beyond 12 runners.

• Stick to the 6.0+ rule on EW, and never drop below 5.2 unless there’s value in added places or progressive form.

Pre-racing Preview & Predictions

🏇 Lucky 15 Backers – Can We Bounce Back?

💰 Lucky 15 – Saturday 22 March (Each Way Structure)

🎯 Stake: £7.50 (30 x £0.25 lines)
📦 Returns: £1,557.48 (if all four win)
💡 Approach: Classy mid-price picks with high place potential, maxing out 1/5 and 1/4 EW terms.

🏇 13:15 Kelso – Pull Again Green (EW @ 6.5)

He ticks the Inform profile box, travels well, and has the stamina for this extended trip. With market favourites facing question marks, he’s the solid each-way play to kick us off.

🏇 14:25 Kelso – The Jeweller’s Pet (EW @ 11)

Proper series final type. Big value, drawn nicely, and hitting a peak at the right time. Will be doing best work late and rates a standout each-way at current odds with 5 places on offer.

🏇 15:00 Kelso – Game Colours (EW @ 6.5)

The sneaky form horse. Market hasn’t caught on. Tactical pace and confirmed stamina give him a live chance against trendier types. Perfect strike rate for a Trixie or Lucky 15 base.

🏇 15:35 Kelso – Escapeandevade (EW @ 8.0)

Backed into favouritism early before a late drift—typical of a lurking dark horse. Class dropper, weighted to win, and trainer often sharp with these types. Riskier than Flash Du Pistolet, but much tastier each-way returns.

✅ Summary

All four horses are:

✅ Priced 6.0+ (Staking Plan Compliant)
✅ Carrying place terms of 2 or more spots
✅ Running in high-value races with exposed rivals
✅ Strong mix of race types (chase & hurdle), distances, and field sizes
✅ Geared toward either win shock or sneaky place boomers

If just one wins and two place, you're likely getting your stake back or more. If two win, this starts to sing. And if we go full house? Well, there’s your £1,557 reason to believe.

1-2-3 predictions and Pedigree Picks for each race at Kelso – Saturday 22 March 2025, perfect for blog inclusion or a quick reference sheet:

🏇 Race 1 – 13:15 Kelso (3m2f Handicap Chase)

1️⃣ Pull Again Green
2️⃣ Dare To Shout
3️⃣ Cadell
🎯 Pedigree Pick: Pull Again Green

🏇 Race 2 – 13:50 Kelso (3m Listed Mares' Hurdle)

1️⃣ Wyenot
2️⃣ Ottizzini
3️⃣ Gale Mahler
🎯 Pedigree Pick: Sacre Coeur

🏇 Race 3 – 14:25 Kelso (2m5f Go North Hcap Hurdle Final)

1️⃣ The Jeweller’s Pet
2️⃣ Harper Valley
3️⃣ Sayva
🎯 Pedigree Pick: Nordic Tiger

🏇 Race 4 – 15:00 Kelso (2m Herring Queen Series Final – Nov Hcap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Game Colours
2️⃣ Northern Air
3️⃣ Surrey Belle
🎯 Pedigree Pick: Lizzie Luna

🏇 Race 5 – 15:35 Kelso (2m1f Handicap Chase – Class 4)

1️⃣ Flash Du Pistolet
2️⃣ Escapeandevade
3️⃣ Gold Des Bois
🎯 Pedigree Pick: Escapeandevade

🏇 Race 6 – 16:10 Kelso (2m5f Novices’ Hurdle)

1️⃣ Rocheval
2️⃣ Joecooker
3️⃣ Highland Fashion
🎯 Pedigree Pick: Malicash

🏇 Race 7 – 16:45 Kelso (2m NH Flat Race – Class 2)

1️⃣ Out Of The Woods
2️⃣ Bel Ombre
3️⃣ Kiwi Rush
🎯 Pedigree Pick: Caballo De Guerra

🏇 Race 1 – 13:15 Kelso (3m2f Handicap Chase, Class 2)

1️⃣ Dare To Shout
Trainer: Ann Hamilton | Jockey: Danny McMenamin
Pedigree: By Fame And Glory out of Carigeen Kalmia, bred for stamina and deep-ground chases.
Key Form: A model of consistency—placed in his last five starts and runner-up twice at similar trips. Notably strong effort over 3m at Ayr.
Why: Looks to be the most straightforward and reliable stayer in the field. He's been knocking at the door in better races, and the small field could help him control the tempo. Backed steadily and rates a confident win-only bet under the staking plan.

2️⃣ Cadell
Trainer: Lucinda Russell | Jockey: Alan Doyle
Pedigree: Son of Kayf Tara out of Sesenta—stamina-laden National Hunt lines through and through.
Key Form: Won well at Musselburgh earlier this season but flopped in deep ground at Haydock. Likely to bounce back now on a sounder surface with a smaller field.
Why: Trainer in good form, and this gelding should be suited to the test. Class-dropper with scope to improve again over staying trips—danger if bouncing back.

3️⃣ Pull Again Green
Trainer: Fergal O’Brien | Jockey: Liam Harrison
Pedigree: Son of Kalanisi out of Katariya—middle-distance flat pedigree with some soft-ground capability.
Key Form: Excellent run two starts ago over 3m2f at Cheltenham (3rd), outstayed late. Hasn’t backed it up since but retains potential.
Why: A strong profile on Inform, capable of staying the trip, and trained by a yard in great form. Drifting slightly but looks overpriced on peak runs.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Your Own Story
Trainer: Lucinda Russell | Jockey: Patrick Wadge
Pedigree: By Shantou out of Hold The Whisper, suited to marathon trips.
Key Form: Shown flashes in better company, including a strong run over 4m in last year’s Scottish National.
Why: First-time visor applied today and drops into calmer waters. Might need further ideally, but has the class to stay on for a place. Solid staying bloodlines and a potential improver with the headgear angle.

🏇 Race 2 – 13:50 Kelso (3m Listed Mares' Hurdle)

1️⃣ Wyenot
Trainer: Henry Daly | Jockey: Alice Stevens
Pedigree: By Mahler out of Wye Aye Pet—deep stamina influence from sire, with proven staying progeny on testing ground.
Key Form: Three wins from last five starts including a strong Listed performance over a similar trip. Has won on soft and good-to-soft going.
Why: Holds the standout profile on class, ratings, and consistency. A confirmed front-runner, she stays well and ticks every box, even with a small drift. Big performance expected—deserved favourite. Win-only bet in line with the staking plan.

2️⃣ Ottizzini
Trainer: Stuart Crawford | Jockey: J. J. Slevin
Pedigree: By Milan out of Stylish Lady—a proven combination for long-distance, soft-ground staying hurdlers.
Key Form: Rebounded from a poor Punchestown run to finish 2nd in a higher-grade mares event. Prior win showed grit and stamina.
Why: Irish raider with solid Listed form and fits the mould for this sort of test. Slight market drift but has each-way claims. Should relish conditions and the trip.

3️⃣ Gale Mahler
Trainer: Adrian Keatley | Jockey: Danny McMenamin
Pedigree: By Mahler out of Gales Present—another well-bred mare for staying events.
Key Form: Strung together three novice wins before taking a step into deeper waters. 2nd last time in a strong race; cheekpieces retained.
Why: Trainer targeting stamina events and this mare's profile is still upward. Handles soft and stays, so she’s no back number.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Sacre Coeur
Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Tristan Durrell
Pedigree: By Pour Moi out of La Fisarmonica—more a stamina-flat pedigree with occasional jumps success.
Key Form: Ultra-experienced and very high earner. Unseated last time but won two back and has winning Listed form.
Why: At double-figure odds, she’s an intriguing place contender on class alone. Stamina doubts linger but not dismissed given her earnings and peak form.

🏇 Race 3 – 14:25 Kelso (2m5f Handicap Hurdle, Class 2)

1️⃣ The Jeweller’s Pet
Trainer: Ian Duncan | Jockey: Alan Doyle
Pedigree: By Pether's Moon out of Jewelled—bred for stamina with decent cut-in-the-ground performers on both sides.
Key Form: Back-to-back wins in lower grade but bolted up with authority. Has steadily climbed the ratings and still looks progressive.
Why: Rapid improver and on a hat-trick. Inform stats and Timeform mark him out as still ahead of the handicapper. Market support holding up. At 11.0, this is a prime EW bet per the staking plan.

2️⃣ Sayva
Trainer: Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill | Jockey: Benjamin Macey
Pedigree: By Telescope out of Ayla’s Emperor—middle-distance stamina pedigree, progressive types from this cross.
Key Form: Three wins from last four; most recent effort still credible. Drops into a big-field scenario where her early tactical pace could be crucial.
Why: Still lightly raced and the O'Neill yard is warming up again. Top 5 angle boosted by EW extra markets—2pt 3TBP bet suits well here.

3️⃣ I Am Max
Trainer: Sandy Thomson | Jockey: Ryan Mania
Pedigree: By Maxios out of Wurfspiel—flat-bred dam with jumpers in the family.
Key Form: Two-time winner this season, consistent placegetter. Always in the frame and has the right attitude.
Why: Trainer is shrewd when targeting these series finals. Market likes him (drifter into support) and he handles both trip and surface. Place machine—ideal for 3TBP staking.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Nordic Tiger
Trainer: Harry Derham | Jockey: Alice Stevens
Pedigree: By Elusive Pimpernel out of Nordic Belle—sire has produced fair staying hurdlers; damline has latent potential.
Key Form: Out of form lately but market has reacted with fresh interest. Profile earlier this season includes a double win streak.
Why: If able to bounce back to early season form, this is a live dark horse. Good record fresh, and pedigree suggests 2m5f on soft could spark a turnaround.

🏇 Race 4 – 15:00 Kelso (2m Mares’ Novice Handicap Hurdle, Class 2)

1️⃣ Game Colours
Trainer: Ben Clarke | Jockey: Tom Bellamy
Pedigree: By Champs Elysees out of Colour Vision—sire known for tough middle-distance types; dam line suggests a gritty finisher.
Key Form: Broke maiden tag impressively LTO; solid prior placed form in deeper races. Tactically versatile and can handle pace or grind.
Why: Value still holding at 7.0+. Timeform positive, figures trend upwards, and represents a yard that rarely tilts at windmills. 1pt win play offers upside.

2️⃣ Northern Air
Trainer: Fergal O'Brien | Jockey: Liam Harrison
Pedigree: By Doyen out of Northerly Gale—from a strong stamina-focused family, ground looks ideal.
Key Form: Took a while to get off the mark but has shaped well in all recent outings. Best run came over today's trip.
Why: Strong each-way angles—3TBP preferred if available at 1.8+. Place record and trainer strike rate at Kelso suggest reliability.

3️⃣ Surrey Belle
Trainer: Adrian Keatley | Jockey: Brian Hughes
Pedigree: By Decorated Knight out of Surrey Storm—flat pedigree but has translated well to hurdles.
Key Form: Form line reads 2211—clearly improving fast and well supported in early markets.
Why: Faces toughest test today against seasoned types, but hot profile can’t be ignored. Trainer hitting 25% lately and Hughes stays loyal. Watch the market; vulnerable if she shortens too much.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Lizzie Luna
Trainer: Ewan Whillans | Jockey: Craig Nichol
Pedigree: By Pether's Moon out of Livia’s Dream—a stout pedigree that has been underrated.
Key Form: Shock winner last time, jumping cleanly and staying on strongly. No fluke in that success.
Why: Could be an improver at big odds (29.0), with conditions to suit and trainer often slips one into the frame in these northern handicaps. Consider for place-only bet if 4.0+ on 4TBP.

🏇 Race 5 – 15:35 Kelso (2m1f Handicap Chase, Class 4)

1️⃣ Flash Du Pistolet
Trainer: Stuart Coltherd | Jockey: Ross Chapman
Pedigree: By Coastal Path out of Perle Rose—a stamina-laced French-bred staying line, ideal for soft ground and sharp turning tracks.
Key Form: Landed a deserved win LTO at Musselburgh, asserting with authority. Has been knocking on the door for weeks and arrives in peak condition.
Why: Timeform standout, sharp on sectionals, and tactically versatile. Market has shortened in confidence, and the trainer has solid local form. Stands out on current ability—clearly the one to beat.

2️⃣ Gold Des Bois
Trainer: Sandy Thomson | Jockey: Ryan Mania
Pedigree: By Full of Gold out of Oceane Bleue—sire known for producing tough, durable chasers with a good engine.
Key Form: Won impressively two starts ago and has consistently competed at a higher level (Class 2 drop to Class 4 today).
Why: Weighted to strike, and form holds up better than most in this field. If bouncing back from last run, looks a big threat at value odds.

3️⃣ Escapeandevade
Trainer: James Ewart | Jockey: Danny McMenamin
Pedigree: By Getaway out of Evanna’s Escape—a blend of staying bloodlines with a touch of speed.
Key Form: Runner-up two starts back in a stronger field; looks better suited by the drop back to 2m1f on this stiffer track.
Why: Drifter in market but stable known for sneaky improvers. Best form is good enough to feature. Solid 2TBP material if market holds.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Lively Citizen
Trainer: D. J. Jeffreys | Jockey: Tom Bellamy
Pedigree: By Frammassone out of Acinorev—less familiar lines but progeny tend to be smart over hurdles and fences at this trip.
Key Form: Won two back in smooth style, then ran with credit despite a pace collapse last time.
Why: May have been underestimated after just one below-par run. A handy jumper who travels well in his races. With better race setup, could sneak a place and represents one of the few here with speed pedigree appeal.

🏇 Race 6 – 16:10 Kelso (2m5f Novices’ Hurdle, Class 3)

1️⃣ Rocheval
Trainer: Lucinda Russell | Jockey: Patrick Wadge
Pedigree: By Cokoriko out of Salsavina—a progressive French cross with proven staying power on soft ground.
Key Form: Dual bumper winner who has transitioned well to hurdles. Solid second last time in deeper company; unbeaten at the course.
Why: Clear class act in the field with the strongest blend of form and ratings. Has the perfect blend of stamina and speed for this intermediate trip, and the yard is among Kelso’s most reliable.

2️⃣ Joecooker
Trainer: Rebecca Menzies | Jockey: Jamie Hamilton
Pedigree: By Dylan Thomas out of Clydeside Girl—stamina-laden with proven jumps stock.
Key Form: Won a novice two starts ago and held his form respectably in deeper waters. Suits these race conditions well.
Why: Honest type with solid experience. This smaller field should suit his style, and stable form has been quietly consistent across the week.

3️⃣ Malicash
Trainer: Donald McCain | Jockey: Brian Hughes
Pedigree: By Malinas out of Cash Customer—a traditionally jump-bred line with decent 2m4f performance history.
Key Form: Got off the mark impressively last time out after a series of respectable efforts. Now goes up in class.
Why: Market support suggests confidence, and pairing with Brian Hughes is notable. Strong travelling type likely to be on the premises.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Highland Fashion
Trainer: Ian Duncan | Jockey: Alan Doyle
Pedigree: By Highland Reel out of Fashion Rocks—a Flat-heavy pedigree adapted well to hurdles, particularly on better ground.
Key Form: Has shaped well this season without winning. Consistent placer in this grade with solid figures under similar conditions.
Why: Less exposed than most and has the stamina pedigree for this distance. Could be underestimated again and fits nicely into place-only strategy at 3TBP if price holds above

🏇 Race 7 – 16:45 Kelso (2m National Hunt Flat Race, Class 2)

1️⃣ Out Of The Woods
Trainer: Lucinda Russell | Jockey: Conner McCann
Pedigree: By Flemensfirth out of Woodland Walk—a high-class jumps line known for producing bumper and novice hurdle winners.
Key Form: Impressive debut winner, shaping powerfully and showing strong late pace in soft ground.
Why: Despite the less high-profile jockey, this one looks the value. Lucinda Russell targets this race, and the horse’s debut effort was backed by a strong pedigree and serious late gears.

2️⃣ Kiwi Rush
Trainer: Harry Derham | Jockey: Mr P. W. Mullins
Pedigree: By Kiwi Bay out of Rush’n’Run—less established, but combines stamina with tactical pace.
Key Form: Won stylishly on second start and now gets a significant jockey upgrade with Patrick Mullins booked.
Why: Trainer is flying, and Mullins in bumpers is gold. Odds are tight, but the horse profiles as progressive and is clearly the market’s choice.

3️⃣ Humble Jumble
Trainer: Lucinda Russell | Jockey: Patrick Wadge
Pedigree: By Jukebox Jury out of Honest Hope—a blend of stamina and strong late-developing types in bumpers.
Key Form: Stylish winner of her debut and bred to improve again.
Why: Strong stable support and solid visual impression last time. Faces tougher rivals here but still holds serious place claims on pure progression.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Bel Ombre
Trainer: Neil Mulholland | Jockey: Conor O’Farrell
Pedigree: By Balko out of Miss Marpel—French staying pedigree known for soft ground and bumper performers.
Key Form: Showed big improvement in second bumper effort, finishing well behind a well-touted type.
Why: One of the strongest stamina pedigrees in the field. If they go a gallop, this one could finish over the top and sneak into the places at double-figure odds.

Early Doors Preview & Predictions

📅 Kelso Race Day – Saturday 22 March 2025

Full Card Predictions | Smart Stats | Timeform-Driven Insights | Informed Picks

A packed card at Kelso, where form meets value. From marathon chases to competitive bumpers, today’s approach combines:

✅ Inform Stats + Timeform Ratings
✅ Smart Stats (Hot/Cold Jockeys, Class Droppers, Headgear Watch)
✅ Tailored Staking Strategy (No EW under 6.0, strategic 2TBP/3TBP bets)
✅ Continuous Refinement

We’ll hold off on the Lucky 15 until closer to post-time for better accuracy. For now, here’s your data-led race guide and staking angles.

🏇 13:15 Kelso – Handicap Chase (Class 2, 3m2f)

A tight five-runner handicap with proven stayers and a few quirky types.

1st – Pull Again Green (100/30)
Has the strongest profile on Inform data. Tongue strap on, trainer in hot form (O’Brien), and form has held up well in similar events.

2nd – Dare To Shout (13/8)
Big market support, strong last run, but stamina unproven over this far. Good strike rate in small fields.

3rd – Cadell (3/1)
Unexposed and consistent. Small field suits. First-time in a race of this depth. Strong jockey/trainer combo.

Wildcard – Mr Incredible (12/1)
Hard to catch right. Big prize earner but form is unreliable.

Staking Plan
Pull Again Green – 1.5pt Win
Dare To Shout – 2pt 2TBP
Cadell – 1pt Win or Cover

🏇 13:50 Kelso – Listed Mares' Hurdle (3m)

A Listed contest featuring one heavy market leader.

1st – Wyenot (5/6)
Clear standout on every data angle – Master rating, class dropper, and 100% at the course. Only concern is lack of race pressure.

2nd – Ottizzini (7/2)
Strong speed profile, consistent splits, handles this sort of ground. Each-way claims.

3rd – Gale Mahler (6/1)
Improving profile, cheekpieces on again. Big stamina test suits.

Wildcard – Sacre Coeur (8/1)
High earner but vulnerable on recent form and cold trainer/jockey combo.

Staking Plan
Wyenot – 2pt Win
Ottizzini – 1pt 2TBP
Gale Mahler – 1pt Place only

🏇 14:25 Kelso – Go North Series Final (Handicap Hurdle, 2m5f)

A monster 16-runner field with plenty of form overlap.

1st – The Jeweller’s Pet (12/1)
Outstanding Form score, looks laid out for this. Sharp upward class move. Market value pick.

2nd – Harper Valley (10/1)
Peaking at right time. Inform ratings trending up. Ignore market noise.

3rd – Sayva (9/1)
Classy stats, low mileage, solid at track and trip. Beaten favourite LTO.

Wildcard – Achnamara (9/1)
Well-handicapped with headgear and travel angle. Outsider value.

Staking Plan
The Jeweller’s Pet – 1pt EW
Harper Valley – 1pt EW
Sayva – 1pt 3TBP
Achnamara – 1pt Place Only if 2.8+

🏇 15:00 Kelso – Herring Queen Series Final (Mares' Novice Hurdle, 2m)

High prize money and a cracking novice field.

1st – Game Colours (12/1)
Big upside, excellent Timeform projection, good tactical pace. Hidden on figures.

2nd – Northern Air (6/1)
Consistent placer. Value improves in 3TBP. Stable and jockey in form.

3rd – Surrey Belle (7/1)
Well backed. Beaten favourite LTO. Top Timeform mark.

Wildcard – Lizzie Luna (16/1)
Massive recent figure leap. Solid stamina. Place-only option.

Staking Plan
Game Colours – 1pt Win
Northern Air – 2pt 3TBP
Surrey Belle – 1pt Win
Lizzie Luna – 1pt Place-only

🏇 15:35 Kelso – Handicap Chase (Class 4, 2m1f)

A six-runner field where sharpness and class drop are the edge.

1st – Flash Du Pistolet (9/4)
Rapid improver. 6lb better than field on figures. Hot jockey, trainer targeting this.

2nd – Escapeandevade (7/2)
Dropping from Class 2 to 4. Smart closer. Weighted to win.

3rd – Gold Des Bois (7/2)
Class act but inconsistent. Has top earnings and class edge.

Wildcard – Lively Citizen (13/2)
New headgear and pacey profile could make the frame.

Staking Plan
Flash Du Pistolet – 2pt Win
Escapeandevade – 1pt 2TBP
Gold Des Bois – 1pt Win
Lively Citizen – 1pt Place-only

🏇 16:10 Kelso – Novices' Hurdle (2m5f)

A tighter novice where two stand above.

1st – Rocheval (6/4)
Top class ratings, best on ability and confirmed distance form. Win-only bet.

2nd – Joecooker (5/2)
Improving nicely. Decent Timeform. Likely to be the one challenging.

3rd – Highland Fashion (10/1)
Headgear angle. Improving profile. Lively place claims.

Wildcard – Malicash (9/2)
Figures are modest, but trainer sharp with these types.

Staking Plan
Rocheval – 1.5pt Win
Joecooker – 2pt 2TBP
Highland Fashion – 1pt 3TBP

🏇 16:45 Kelso – NH Flat (Go North Series Final)

A bumper finale with a wide-open field.

1st – Out Of The Woods (5/2)
Timeform standout. Proven bumper profile. Trainer targets these.

2nd – Bel Ombre (12/1)
Stamina confirmed, excellent closing sectionals. Value angle.

3rd – Kiwi Rush (11/4)
Very unexposed. Smart pedigree. Patrick Mullins booked.

Wildcard – Caballo De Guerra (10/1)
Market cold but interesting prep and sharp form early in the season.

Staking Plan
Out Of The Woods – 2pt Win
Bel Ombre – 1pt EW or 2TBP
Kiwi Rush – 1pt 3TBP
Caballo De Guerra – 1pt Cover EW if price holds

📌 Reminder:
We’ll construct the Lucky 15 later today, based on updated Betfair markets, late paddock visuals, and trainer quotes.

Stay tuned, and may your selections be strong, your odds sharp, and your horses well placed. Let’s land some value today. 💥🏇

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which Hobby Picks are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.
Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

We’re trialling this approach across UK, Irish, and U.S. racing to see where it offers the most value. Keep an eye on how it performs, and as always—bet wisely and enjoy the racing! 🏇🔥

"May you never be a penny short of a full wallet."

ChatGPT said:

Now that is a blessing I’ll gladly take! 🙌 May your accas always land, your favourites stay strong, and your pint never run dry on a good race day. 🍻🏇💰

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥