Clonmel Racing Preview Trixie & Patent Picks – Big Winners & Hidden Value - 13/02/25

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
19th to 25th January 2025
Starting Bankroll £30 (24 days)
Top Up to Bankroll £30 12.02.25

Wk 1 £35 Wk 2 £32.01 Wk 3 -£18.12

WEEK 4 £29.25
Sun - -£07.50
Mon - £02.17
Tue - -£07.50
Wed - £07.50
Thrs - £07.00
Fri - £00.00
Sat - £0.00

Note from Coldjack: The general effectiveness of the Inform Data strategy failed but it will do better... when we go again!

Trixie @4 Lines
Ballygunner Castle | Bossofthebus | Jay Pee M
Stake £4.00 (4 x £1.00) Returns £48.97 NO Returns

(Each Way) Patent @14 Lines
Neon Diamond | Simply Shabra | Castle Field Boy
Stake £3.50 (14 x £0.25) Returns £256.38 returns £0.50

Stakes £7.50 Winning £0.50 (P/L) losing £7.00
Modest returns for the 'Trickey Trixie'
Patent punting for the 'zsar bomba' of booms!
(1pt = £1 Pick Your Own Point Level & Runners)

Clonmel Race Predictions - Results & Review (13th Feb 2025)

This is a full post-race debrief of the Trixie, Patent, and individual race selections from Clonmel. I’ll break down what went right, what went wrong, and key takeaways to improve future betting strategies.

📌 Trixie Bet #1: The Consistency Play

This bet focused on reliable horses with strong stats in track, distance, and going conditions.

Ballygunner Castle (Evs) - Strongest Rated Horse on the Card

📌 Prediction: Win
📉 Result: 2nd (1/1)
🔎 Analysis: Ran well but lost by half a length to Ballybow (5/6 fav). The race was slowly run, which didn’t suit Ballygunner Castle, as the winner had the turn of foot when it mattered. The selection was correct on ability but tactically disadvantaged.

Bossofthebus (15/8) - 100% Clonmel & Going Record

📌 Prediction: Win
📉 Result: Unplaced
🔎 Analysis: A major disappointment. The pre-race data was strong, and the market reflected this, but the horse failed to feature in the finish. Whether it was positioning, pace, or an off day needs further analysis.

Jay Pee M (7/2) - 100% Win Rate at Track & Going

📌 Prediction: Win
📉 Result: 4th (11/8 fav)
🔎 Analysis: Opened at 7/2 but went off at 11/8 – huge market support. Despite this, finished just outside the places, meaning the market confidence was misplaced. Didn’t run terribly but failed to justify the price crash.

Trixie Verdict: ❌ Unsuccessful

Ballygunner Castle was close, Jay Pee M was well-supported but didn’t place, and Bossofthebus completely flopped. A frustrating outcome.

📌 Trixie Bet #2: The All-Ways Patent (Higher-Risk Play)

This bet targeted longer odds runners with strong place potential.

Neon Diamond (10/1) - Strongest Track Record at a Big Price

📌 Prediction: Each-Way
📉 Result: 3rd (8/1) ✅
🔎 Analysis: A solid run to grab 3rd place and return each-way profits. The odds shortened from 10/1 to 8/1, showing some market confidence. A well-judged selection.

Simply Shabra (12/1) - Underrated Place Contender

📌 Prediction: Each-Way
📉 Result: Unplaced ❌
🔎 Analysis: Never in the race. Either a bad selection or an off-day for the horse.

Castle Field Boy (40/1) - Longshot with Surprise Potential

📌 Prediction: Each-Way
📉 Result: Unplaced ❌
🔎 Analysis: Always a gamble at 40/1, and this one never got involved. A speculative selection that didn’t pay off.

Patent Verdict: ✅ Partial Success

Neon Diamond delivered a place for profit, but the other two selections were off the mark.

📌 Race-by-Race Breakdown

12:35 – Novice Hurdle

📌 Prediction: Neon Diamond (10/1) Each-Way
📉 Result: 3rd (8/1) ✅
🔎 Analysis: A spot-on pick that returned each-way money. Pre-race logic was sound, as track form held up.

13:10 – Maiden Hurdle

📌 Prediction: Addragoole (7/4) Win
📉 Result: 1st (13/8 fav) ✅
🔎 Analysis: Comfortable winner, justifying both market strength and form stats. A perfect selection.

13:45 – Maiden Hurdle (Grade 3)

📌 Prediction: Ballygunner Castle (Evs) Win
📉 Result: 2nd (1/1) ❌
🔎 Analysis: Beaten only 0.5L, but the slow pace worked against him. A near miss rather than a bad pick.

14:20 – Handicap Hurdle

📌 Prediction: Apologise (5/2) Win
📉 Result: 1st (9/2) ✅
🔎 Analysis: The horse drifted but still won, proving the initial read was 100% correct. A big winner on the card.

14:55 – Handicap Hurdle

📌 Prediction: Simply Shabra (12/1) Each-Way
📉 Result: Unplaced ❌
🔎 Analysis: Poor selection – never featured.

15:30 – Handicap Hurdle

📌 Prediction: Bossofthebus (15/8) Win
📉 Result: Unplaced ❌
🔎 Analysis: One of the biggest disappointments of the day.

16:05 – Handicap Chase

📌 Prediction: Jay Pee M (7/2) Win
📉 Result: 4th (11/8 fav) ❌
🔎 Analysis: Heavily backed but failed to finish in the places.

16:35 – Novice Chase

📌 Prediction: Banprionsa (3/1) Win
📉 Result: 3rd (7/2) ✅ Each-Way return
🔎 Analysis: Not a win but delivered a place for each-way backers.

📌 Final Debrief - Hits & Misses

✅ Best Picks:

• Addragoole (7/4) – WON (13/8)

• Apologise (5/2) – WON (9/2)

• Neon Diamond (10/1) – Placed (8/1) for EW profit

• Banprionsa (3/1) – Placed (7/2) for EW profit

❌ Biggest Flops:

• Bossofthebus (15/8) – Unplaced

• Simply Shabra (12/1) – Unplaced

• Jay Pee M (7/2) – 4th (11/8 fav), failed to place

⚠️ Near Miss:

• Ballygunner Castle (Evs) – 2nd (1/1), beaten 0.5L

📌 Final Thoughts & Key Learnings

1️⃣ Market Confidence Was Mostly Right

• Addragoole shortened & won.

• Neon Diamond held steady & placed.

• Apologise drifted but still won, proving some drifts are overreactions.

2️⃣ Tactical Race Reading Needs Improvement

• Ballygunner Castle lost due to a slow-run race.

• Future bets should consider potential race pace rather than just form data.

3️⃣ Longshots Need More Refinement

• Neon Diamond (10/1) showed why track form matters.

• Castle Field Boy (40/1) was too speculative.

📌 Final Score: 5/10 Correct Bets

🔹 2 Strong Winners (Addragoole, Apologise)
🔹 2 Solid Each-Way Returns (Neon Diamond, Banprionsa)
🔹 1 Near Miss (Ballygunner Castle – 2nd)
🔹 Some Flops (Bossofthebus, Simply Shabra, Jay Pee M)

Not a perfect day, but plenty of positives and profitable each-way returns on big prices!

Pre Race Predictions

Trixie Bet #1: The Consistency Play

📌 Top Win Bets: ✅ Ballygunner Castle (Evs) – Best-rated horse on the card.
✅ Bossofthebus (15/8) – 100% Clonmel & going win record.
✅ Jay Pee M (7/2) – 100% win rate at track & going.

Trixie Bet #2: The All-Ways Patent (Higher-Risk Play)

📌 Top Each-Way Bets: 💰 Neon Diamond (10/1) – Strongest track record at a big price.
💰 Simply Shabra (12/1) – Under the radar but strong place stats.
💰 Castle Field Boy (40/1) – Longshot with surprise potential.

📌 Gamble Responsibly!

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which 'obby Picks (dropping Hs since the dog chewed my denture) are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.
Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

Race Predictions

The Inform data provides historical performance statistics for horses, categorised by track, distance, going, class, race size, jockey-trainer partnerships, and overall consistency. This data is valuable because it helps to identify strong trends, outliers, and potential value bets.

How FREE Daily Inform Data Can Be Used for Predictions

1. Win & Place Percentages – Identify consistent performers and underperformers.

2. Track, Distance & Going Records – Find horses suited to today’s conditions.

3. Class & Race Size Form – Assess if a horse is competitive at this level.

4. Jockey/Trainer Combinations – Strong partnerships indicate reliability.

5. Market Prices & Overlays – Compare betting odds to historical performance.

Race-by-Race Predictions Using FREE Inform Data

I’ll analyse each race at Clonmel (CLO) on 13th Feb 2025 using Inform stats, highlighting:

• Most Likely Winner

• Strong Each-Way Chances

• Potential Market Overlays (Value Bets)

12:35 CLO – Novice Hurdle (Non-Hcp)

Top Contenders:

✅ Neon Diamond (10/1)

• 100% win rate at Clonmel (1/1) – Proven at the track.

• 67% place rate on this going – Handles conditions well.

• 112% total score – Best in the race statistically.

• Big market price (10/1) – Strong each-way bet.

⚠️ Potential Value Bet:

• Whatsupnellie (9/1) – Consistent placer (1/3) but yet to win.

📌 Prediction: Neon Diamond (10/1) EW bet.

13:10 CLO – Maiden Hurdle (Non-Hcp)

Top Contender:

✅ Addragoole (7/4)

• Consistent (3 places from 5 runs) – Competitive at this level.

• Jockey/trainer score of 17% – Decent combination.

• Best total percentage score (29%) – Most reliable stats in the field.

📌 Prediction: Addragoole (7/4) WIN.

13:45 CLO – Maiden Hurdle (Non-Hcp)

Top Contender:

✅ Ballygunner Castle (Evs)

• 50% win rate over both course & distance – Clear standout.

• 100% win rate on this going – Perfect conditions.

• 233% total score – Highest-rated horse of the day.

📌 Prediction: Ballygunner Castle (Evs) – Strong WIN bet.

14:20 CLO – Handicap Hurdle (NW Hcp)

Top Contenders:

✅ Apologise (5/2)

• 22% win rate in similar races – Consistent performer.

• 100% win rate in this class (1/1) – Well-handicapped.

• 181% total score – Best in the field.

⚠️ Each-Way Value Bet:

• Robindevidastar (6/1) – Course & distance form + solid place stats.

📌 Prediction: Apologise (5/2) WIN, Robindevidastar (6/1) EW.

14:55 CLO – Handicap Hurdle (NW Hcp)

Top Contender:

✅ Simply Shabra (12/1)

• 5% win rate, 17% placed record – Underrated.

• Big market price (12/1) – Strong EW bet.

• Best jockey/trainer score (22%).

⚠️ Value Bet:

• Aclass (4/1) – Distance specialist (2/5 record).

📌 Prediction: Simply Shabra (12/1) EW, Aclass (4/1) WIN.

15:30 CLO – Handicap Hurdle (NW Hcp)

Top Contender:

✅ Bossofthebus (15/8)

• 100% win rate at Clonmel (1/1) – Track specialist.

• 100% win rate on this going – Conditions suit.

• 222% total score – Strongest horse in this field.

⚠️ Danger: Pana To Milan (10/1) – Sneaky EW chance.

📌 Prediction: Bossofthebus (15/8) WIN, Pana To Milan (10/1) EW.

16:05 CLO – Handicap Hurdle (NW Hcp)

Top Contender:

✅ Jay Pee M (7/2)

• 100% win rate at Clonmel (1/1) – Track specialist.

• 100% win rate on this going (1/1) – Loves conditions.

• 228% total score – Best in the field.

⚠️ Each-Way Alternative: Jouster (11/2) – Consistent placer (33%).

📌 Prediction: Jay Pee M (7/2) WIN, Jouster (11/2) EW.

16:35 CLO – Novice Hurdle (Non-Hcp)

Top Contender:

✅ Banprionsa (3/1)

• Proven distance form (1/3 win rate) – Reliable at trip.

• High class form (18% win record) – Suited to level.

• 51% total score – Best overall rating.

⚠️ Value Bet: Castle Field Boy (40/1) – Massive longshot, but top track and distance stats (100% win at distance).

📌 Prediction: Banprionsa (3/1) WIN, Castle Field Boy (40/1) EW.

Final Best Bets of the Day

📌 Top Win Bets: ✅ Ballygunner Castle (Evs) – Best-rated horse on the card.
✅ Bossofthebus (15/8) – 100% Clonmel & going win record.
✅ Jay Pee M (7/2) – 100% win rate at track & going.

📌 Top Each-Way Bets: 💰 Neon Diamond (10/1) – Strongest track record at a big price.
💰 Simply Shabra (12/1) – Under the radar but strong place stats.
💰 Castle Field Boy (40/1) – Longshot with surprise potential.

Summary

The Inform data highlights clear race trends, allowing data-driven predictions. By combining win rates, track conditions, market value, and trainer/jockey partnerships, these selections provide logical betting opportunities.