Dundalk Race Preview & Tips – Wednesday, 29th January 2025

Note from Coldjack: Today's preview has taken an extraordinary amount of time and effort to produce. The Key Contenders section now has extra data to help visitors in a hurry to select alternative races to make their own Trixie selections.
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Late Non-runner alert Tropical Retreat 14:17, Annaghmccanns 14:47

Race 1 – 14:17 – View Restaurant At Dundalk Stadium Maiden (3yo+, 5f, EUR €12,000)

• Distance: 5f (1005m) All-Weather

• Prize Fund: €12,000 (1st €7,080)

Key Contenders:

• Red Evolution – Drops significantly in class after struggling in Listed company. Likely to be suited by this return to maiden grade.

  • Form: 4x50x

  • Trainer: M O'Callaghan, Ireland

  • Age: 3 Weight: 60.0kg Official Rating: N/A

  • Equipment: None

  • Pedigree: Mehmas (IRE) | Transcendence (IRE)

• Tropical Retreat – Eye-catching debut when fourth behind Sharkii in December. Could improve with that run under her belt.

  • Form: 4

  • Trainer: Thomas Mullins, Ireland

  • Age: 3 Weight: 57.5kg Official Rating: N/A

  • Equipment: None

  • Pedigree: Mehmas (IRE) | Retreat Home (GB)

• Just Jump – Has shown pace and ability, finishing close on occasions. Will appreciate a strong pace.

  • Form: 78734

  • Trainer: Alan McIntyre, Ireland

  • Age: 3 Weight: 60.0kg Official Rating: N/A

  • Equipment: None

  • Pedigree: Kodi Bear (IRE) | Academicienne (CAN)

Selection: 1. Red Evolution 2. Tropical Retreat 3. Just Jump

Dark Horse: Charanda (big-priced improver)

Race 2 – 14:47 – Put The Fun In Fundraising Handicap (4yo+, 1m2f150y, EUR €11,500)

• Distance: 1m2f150y (2150m) All-Weather

• Prize Fund: €11,500 (1st €6,785)

Key Contenders:

• Eighty Eight – A course-and-distance winner who nearly made all last time. Big chance under a positive ride.

  • Form: 10x012

  • Trainer: J P O'Brien, Ireland

  • Age: 4 Weight: 59.5kg Official Rating: 80

  • Equipment: None

  • Pedigree: Churchill (IRE) | Kissed By Angels (IRE)

• Annaghmccanns – Consistent sort with strong Dundalk form. Expected to be in the mix.

  • Form: 243542

  • Trainer: S R B Crawford, Ireland

  • Age: 4 Weight: 58.5kg Official Rating: 78

  • Equipment: Tongue Strap

  • Pedigree: Fast Company (IRE) | Tarabaya (IRE)

• Autocrat – Another who ran well behind Eighty Eight last time. Blinkers applied today.

  • Form: 76x525

  • Trainer: R Donohoe, Ireland

  • Age: 4 Weight: 57.5kg Official Rating: 76

  • Equipment: Blinkers

  • Pedigree: Footstepsinthesand (GB) | Sliabh Liag (IRE)

Selection: 1. Eighty Eight 2. Annaghmccanns 3. Autocrat

Dark Horse: Acheron (lightly raced, potential improvement)

Race 6 – 16:47 – Dundalk Winter Series Leading Trainer & Jockey Championship Handicap (4yo+, 7f, EUR €15,500)

• Distance: 7f (1408m) All-Weather

• Prize Fund: €15,500 (1st €9,145)

Key Contenders:

• Volatile Analyst – Won here 12 days ago and remains well-handicapped.

  • Form: 621

  • Trainer: Stephen Thorne, Ireland

  • Age: 6 Weight: 56.5kg Official Rating: 85

  • Equipment: Blinkers, Tongue Strap

  • Pedigree: Distorted Humor (USA) | Tulipmania (USA)

• Exquisite Acclaim – Game winner last time, up in weights but remains competitive.

  • Form: 124

  • Trainer: A McGuinness, Ireland

  • Age: 5 Weight: 58.0kg Official Rating: 82

  • Equipment: Cheekpieces

  • Pedigree: Acclamation (GB) | Exquisite Ruby (IRE)

• Tarsus – Unexposed at this level.

  • Form: 051

  • Trainer: John M Harney, Ireland

  • Age: 5 Weight: 55.5kg Official Rating: 79

  • Equipment: Tongue Strap

  • Pedigree: Gutaifan (IRE) | Tarsia (IRE)

Selection: 1. Volatile Analyst 2. Exquisite Acclaim 3. Tarsus

Dark Horse: Heart of Darkness (capable of outrunning odds)

Race 7 – 17:17 – Join Us On Instagram Handicap (3yo+, 6f, EUR €10,500)

• Distance: 6f (1207m) All-Weather

• Prize Fund: €10,500 (1st €6,195)

Key Contenders:

• Sporting Hero – Back at his preferred distance, leading chance.

  • Form: 1021

  • Trainer: D Hogan, Ireland

  • Age: 4 Weight: 54.0kg Official Rating: 72

  • Equipment: Blinkers

  • Pedigree: Mehmas (IRE) | Sweet Sylvia (IRE)

• Mint Man – Consistent, should go close.

  • Form: 233

  • Trainer: P J F Murphy, Ireland

  • Age: 4 Weight: 55.5kg Official Rating: 70

  • Equipment: Tongue Strap

  • Pedigree: No Nay Never (USA) | Miss Mariduff (IRE)

• Dream Today – Holds strong form claims despite top weight.

  • Form: 431

  • Trainer: S Thorne, Ireland

  • Age: 7 Weight: 59.5kg Official Rating: 76

  • Equipment: Blinkers, Tongue Strap

  • Pedigree: Dream Ahead (USA) | Today (IRE)

Selection: 1. Sporting Hero 2. Mint Man 3. Dream Today

Dark Horse: Tommy McJohn (potential surprise package)

Best Bets & Betting Strategy

• Trixie Bet: Mister Adam (15:17) / Volatile Analyst (16:47) / Sporting Hero (17:17)

• Win Bet: Eighty Eight (14:47)

• Tote Swinger Bets: Red Evolution & Tropical Retreat (14:17), Amemri & Pink Oxalis (16:17)

Final Thoughts

Dundalk’s all-weather surface rewards course specialists and in-form trainers and jockeys. Expect strong performances from proven all-weather performers like Amemri, Volatile Analyst, and Sporting Hero.

For value, Tropical Retreat and Just Jump look well-placed, while Eighty Eight could be a banker. Happy punting!

Critique and Debrief (shortened version)

A J the Hobbyist: The Trixie bet is the whole point of the website. I've come to believe that something is wrong with your server today.

ChatGPT said:

I fully acknowledge the Trixie bet is the core of the hobbyhorseracing.com strategy. Today was a frustrating day, with two legs failing outright—not an ideal result, and I completely understand why this is so disappointing after previous successes.

Trixie Post-Mortem

Selections:

1. Mister Adam (15:17) – Lost, 4th at 9/4 ❌

2. Volatile Analyst (16:47) – Lost, 2nd at 10/3 ❌

3. Sporting Hero (17:17) – Lost, unplaced at 3/1F ❌

Outcome: Complete Trixie wipeout (0/3 legs correct).

Why Did It Fail?

1. Mister Adam (Lost, 4th at 9/4)

   • He had a strong profile, but the huge 33/1 winner (The Padre) caused an upset.

   • Red flag for the future: Avoid large-field maidens with too many unknowns in a Trixie.

2. Volatile Analyst (Lost, 2nd at 10/3)

   • Ran well but outgunned late by the favourite Hightimeyouwon.

   • Fine margins: He was only beaten 1.5L—in hindsight, not a strong enough Trixie anchor.

3. Sporting Hero (Lost, Unplaced at 3/1F)

   • Total flop. He never travelled and was beaten by two 16/1 outsiders.

   • Most frustrating loss. Unlike the other two, this should have been a banker.

What Went Right?

• Win Bets:

  • Red Evolution (5/4F) Won ✅

  • San Salvador (8/15F) Won ✅

  • Amemri (8/1) Won ✅

• Forecast Landed:

  • Volatile Analyst / Hightimeyouwon (€6.90) ✅

• Race 4 – Perfect 1-2-3 Prediction (Tricast Landed, but only paid €3.80).

How To Fix the Trixie for Next Time

1. No More Maidens in a Trixie (unless it's an absolute standout).

   • Mister Adam's race had too many unknowns.

   • A 33/1 winner ruined everything.

2. The Final Leg Needs to Be a Bankable Winner.

   • Sporting Hero (17:17) was expected to win easily, but bombed.

   • Next time, we need a stronger selection for the last leg.

3. Volatile Analyst Wasn't a True Standout Selection.

   • He was 2nd and ran well, but it wasn’t enough.

   • Better to pick a horse that’s a class above the field, not just ‘well-handicapped’.

Immediate Plan for Next Meeting

• Trixie must contain at least one short-priced banker (1.75-2.50 range).

• No unexposed horses in a maiden race unless the field is weak.

• Ensure at least one selection is a strong course-and-distance winner.

🔹 Future Trixie focus: Reliable, proven winners rather than potential value picks.

I appreciate your patience—it’s been a tough day, but we’ll adjust and come back stronger.

You said: We go again tomorrow.

ChatGPT said:

Absolutely. We regroup, refine the Trixie strategy, and go again tomorrow. Lessons learned, adjustments made, and we’ll be sharper for the next card.

Let’s get the next selections right—strong win bets, a calculated Trixie, and no unnecessary risks.

🚀 Tomorrow’s target: Profitable and precise. See you then!

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
Initial Starting Bankroll £30
19th to 25th January 2025 P/L £05
Week 1 - £35
Week 2 - £39.83
Sun - -£04.00
Mon - -£04.00
Tue - £16.83.00 >>>>BOOM<<<<
Wed - -£04.00
Thr - £00.00
Fri - £00.00
Sat - £00.00