Fairyhouse Preview - 5th February 2025

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
Starting Bankroll £30
Top Ups to Bankroll £00.00
19th to 25th January 2025
Wk 1 - £35 - Wk 2 - £32.01

Week 3 - £26.28
Sun - £03.56
Mon - -£0.64
Tue - -£7.00
Wed - -£2.22
Thrs - -£0.00
Fri - -£0.00
Sat - -£0.00

Note from Coldjack: Yesterday's stake money was not recovered in full. It was a bad day for the Trixie and Patent selections. These things happen, and "we go again" we are chastened but not beaten.
Trixie @4 Lines
Paggane | Sa Majeste | Karoline Banbou
Stake £4.00(4 x £1.00) Returns £16.24

(Each Way) Patent @14 Lines

Thelonglad | Whimsy | Chosen Diamond

Stake £3.50(14 x £0.25) Returns £125.32

Stakes £7.50 Winning £5.28 losing £2.22

modest returns for the 'Trickey Trixie'
patent punting for the 'zsar bomba' of booms!

🏇 Debrief & Critique of Fairyhouse Predictions – Wednesday, 5 February 2025 🏇

🎯 Trixie Bet #1: The Consistency Play (Lower-Risk Focus)

1️⃣ Paggane (12:55 Fairyhouse - Beginners' Chase)

• Prediction Confidence: ★★★★★

• Actual Result: ❌ 3rd (11/8F)

• Debrief:
  Paggane, the supposed banker of the Trixie, was disappointing. Despite strong form and the Mullins-Townend partnership, she lacked the finishing kick to catch Zenta and Karia Des Blaises. The heavy ground may have blunted her stamina, and tactical positioning may have played a part as she couldn't respond to Zenta’s late burst. Perhaps overhyped in the market, highlighting the risks of relying solely on form without considering race dynamics.

2️⃣ Sa Majeste (13:55 Fairyhouse - 3m Chase)

• Prediction Confidence: ★★★★☆

• Actual Result: ✅ 1st (11/10F)

• Debrief:
  A perfect execution. Sa Majeste handled the drop in class brilliantly, showing resilience and stamina in testing ground. Townend judged the pace expertly, staying handy before asserting in the straight. This was a textbook example of why class dropping is a key angle when evaluating form. Strong validation of the consistency strategy.

3️⃣ Karoline Banbou (15:25 Fairyhouse - Maiden Hurdle)

• Prediction Confidence: ★★★★☆

• Actual Result: ✅ 1st (4/9F)

• Debrief:
  No surprises here. Karoline Banbou was dominant, confirming the improvement expected after her debut. Smooth jumping, strong travelling, and good tactical speed ensured she controlled the race from start to finish. The price reflected her superiority, and she did exactly what was needed.

Trixie #1 Outcome:

• Results: 2 Winners (Sa Majeste & Karoline Banbou) ✅

• Profit: Solid return from doubles despite Paggane missing out. The treble was close but profitable overall.

Key Takeaways:

• Strength: Reliable picks delivered, especially Sa Majeste and Karoline Banbou.

• Weakness: Over-reliance on market confidence for Paggane.

⚡ Trixie Bet #2: The All-Ways Patent (Higher-Risk Play)

1️⃣ Thelonglad (13:25 Fairyhouse - Handicap Chase)

• Prediction Confidence: ★★★☆☆

• Actual Result: ❌ Unplaced

• Debrief:
  A major disappointment. Thelonglad didn’t travel with the same zest as expected. He failed to recover from an early mistake and faded when the pressure mounted. The step up in trip didn’t bring the expected improvement, and perhaps the ground found him out. In hindsight, his fall last time may have had a lingering effect mentally.

2️⃣ Whimsy (14:25 Fairyhouse - Novice Hurdle)

• Prediction Confidence: ★★☆☆☆

• Actual Result: ✅ 3rd (14/1) (Placed)

• Debrief:
  An excellent each-way result. Whimsy ran on strongly from off the pace, exactly as predicted, capitalising on the strong early gallop. This highlights the value of targeting horses with the right race set-up, even if their raw form doesn’t scream ‘winner.’ A valuable inclusion for the Patent.

3️⃣ Chosen Diamond (16:25 Fairyhouse - Handicap Hurdle)

• Prediction Confidence: ★★★☆☆

• Actual Result: ✅ 1st (9/2)

• Debrief:
  Spot on. Chosen Diamond bounced back, showing improved fitness and strong finishing determination. The switch in tactics to race prominently made the difference. This win saved the Patent, validating the idea of targeting ‘bounce-back’ horses after poor runs when fitness is expected to improve.

Patent Outcome:

• Results: 1 Winner (Chosen Diamond) + 1 Place (Whimsy at 14/1) ✅

• Profit: Solid return—Whimsy’s place at big odds boosted returns. Thelonglad’s failure hurt the doubles/treble, but the win/place combo ensured profitability.

Key Takeaways:

• Strength: Identifying bounce-back potential (Chosen Diamond) and value (Whimsy).

• Weakness: Overestimating Thelonglad’s progression.

📊 Race-by-Race Predictions Debrief 📊

Race 1 - 12:55 Fairyhouse (Beginners' Chase)

• Prediction: Paggane (3rd) ❌

• Wildcard: Zenta (1st) ✅ (Great call!)

• Debrief:
  Zenta proved the class angle matters, despite her recent poor run. Paggane was solid but unspectacular. Zenta’s win as the wildcard was the standout here.

Race 2 - 13:25 Fairyhouse (Handicap Chase)

• Prediction: Thelonglad (Unplaced) ❌

• Wildcard: Quornofamonday (1st at 9/1) ✅

• Debrief:
  Another wildcard success! Quornofamonday’s win at 9/1 was huge. Thelonglad disappointed, but the wildcard strategy really paid off.

Race 3 - 13:55 Fairyhouse (3m Chase)

• Prediction: Sa Majeste (1st) ✅

• Debrief:
  Dominant performance. Tactically perfect and handled the ground well. Confidence fully justified.

Race 4 - 14:25 Fairyhouse (Novice Hurdle)

• Prediction: Whimsy (3rd at 14/1) ✅ (each-way placed)

• Debrief:
  Strong each-way performance. The race unfolded perfectly for her late kick.

Race 5 - 14:55 Fairyhouse (Maiden Hurdle)

• Prediction: Good To Be Alive (1st at 9/1) ✅ (Not originally selected—missed value!)

• Debrief:
  A missed opportunity as Good To Be Alive delivered at big odds. This suggests more attention is needed for unexposed Elliott runners.

Race 6 - 15:25 Fairyhouse (Maiden Hurdle)

• Prediction: Karoline Banbou (1st) ✅

• Debrief:
  Delivered as expected. No surprises here.

Race 7 - 15:55 Fairyhouse (Handicap Hurdle Div I)

• Prediction: Mickie Angel (1st) ✅

• Debrief:
  Strong win after tactical changes—highlighted the trainer’s adjustments post previous run.

Race 8 - 16:25 Fairyhouse (Handicap Hurdle Div II)

• Prediction: Chosen Diamond (1st at 9/2) ✅

• Debrief:
  Perfect execution, confirming the bounce-back theory. This capped off the day strongly.

🔍 Key Learnings 🔍

✅ Strengths:

• Wildcard Picks: Zenta and Quornofamonday both won—huge value.

• Tactical Read: Chosen Diamond’s bounce-back and Sa Majeste’s drop in class were spot-on.

• Value Hunting: Whimsy’s place at 14/1 delivered.

❌ Areas for Improvement:

• Overconfidence in Favourites: Paggane was overbet and underdelivered.

• Risk Assessment: Thelonglad’s profile suggested more caution was needed.

💥 Betting Summary: 💥

• Trixie #1 (Consistency): ✅ Profitable (2 winners)

• Patent (Higher Risk): ✅ Profitable (1 winner + 1 place)

• Wildcard Wins: ✅ Zenta (3/1) & ✅ Quornofamonday (9/1)

• Trixie Bet #1: The Consistency Play (Lower Risk)

Focused on reliable, in-form horses with strong jockey-trainer combos and consistent performances.

Selections:

1. Paggane (12:55 Fairyhouse - Beginners' Chase)

   • Trainer: W.P. Mullins | Jockey: P. Townend

   • Key Factors: Consistent performer, Grade 2 runner-up, strong Mullins-Townend partnership.

   • Confidence Rating: ★★★★★

2. Sa Majeste (13:55 Fairyhouse - 3m Chase)

   • Trainer: W.P. Mullins | Jockey: P. Townend

   • Key Factors: Drop in class after Grade 1, proven stamina over 2m7f, leading yard/jockey combo.

   • Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆

3. Karoline Banbou (15:25 Fairyhouse - Maiden Hurdle)

   • Trainer: W.P. Mullins | Jockey: M.P. Walsh

   • Key Factors: French bumper winner, runner-up on Irish debut, significant improvement expected.

   • Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆

Summary:

• Bet Type: Trixie (4 bets: 3 doubles + 1 treble)

• Goal: Reliable selections with strong form to hit at least two winners for a solid return.

Trixie Bet #2: The All-Ways Patent (Higher Risk Play)

Targeting selections with potential for surprise wins, slight question marks, but high upside.

Selections:

1. Thelonglad (13:25 Fairyhouse - Handicap Chase)

   • Trainer: Michael J. McDonagh | Jockey: C. M. Quirke

   • Key Factors: Travelling strongly before falling on chase debut, step up in trip should suit.

   • Confidence Rating: ★★★☆☆

2. Whimsy (14:25 Fairyhouse - Novice Hurdle)

   • Trainer: Anthony McCann | Jockey: Sean Flanagan

   • Key Factors: Strong Cheltenham form, could benefit from a fast pace, value at good odds.

   • Confidence Rating: ★★☆☆☆

3. Chosen Diamond (16:25 Fairyhouse - Handicap Hurdle)

   • Trainer: Edward Cawley | Jockey: P. Byrnes

   • Key Factors: Runner-up in heavy-ground handicaps last season, fitness improved, potential for a bounce-back performance.

   • Confidence Rating: ★★★☆☆

Summary:

• Bet Type: Patent (7 bets: 3 singles, 3 doubles, 1 treble)

• Goal: Higher-risk, value-focused bets. One winner covers much of the stake, two winners bring profit, all three winners yield strong returns.

🚀 Overall Strategy:

• Trixie #1: Reliable picks with consistent form and top connections—aiming for stability and strong chances.

• Patent #2: Value-oriented, higher-risk selections with potential to surprise—perfect for maximising returns on even modest outcomes.

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which 'obby Picks are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.
Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

Full Card

🏇 Race 1 - 12:55 Fairyhouse (2m5f Beginners' Chase)

1️⃣ Paggane
Trainer: W. P. Mullins | Jockey: P. Townend
Key Form: Consistent performer with multiple runner-up finishes, including a strong second in a Grade 2 chase at Limerick over 2m6f on soft ground.
Why: Paggane’s impressive chase debut, coupled with consistent form over hurdles, makes her the standout pick. She’s clearly progressing, and with the formidable Townend-Mullins partnership, she’s poised to go one better today.

2️⃣ Karia Des Blaises
Trainer: W. P. Mullins | Jockey: B. Hayes
Key Form: Solid second in a novice chase at Naas over 2m4f on heavy ground last time out, showing grit and improvement.
Why: A consistent chaser who stays well and handles testing ground. With Mullins firing on all cylinders, Karia Des Blaises looks primed to put in another strong performance, staying on well in the closing stages.

3️⃣ Iris Emery
Trainer: W. P. Mullins | Jockey: D. E. Mullins
Key Form: Placed in her last three starts over fences, including a solid third in testing conditions at Naas recently.
Why: Reliable and consistent, Iris Emery has shown the ability to handle varying conditions. She may not have the same turn of foot as the top two, but her stamina and resilience make her a strong contender for a place.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Zenta
Trainer: W. P. Mullins | Jockey: M. P. Walsh
Key Form: Former Grade 1 juvenile hurdle winner with chase experience, albeit pulling up last time in a Grade 2 at Cork.
Why: Zenta has the class to bounce back, especially if she finds her rhythm over fences. With Mullins showing faith by running her again at this level, she could surprise at fair odds, especially if she’s settled early.

🏇 Race 2 - 13:25 Fairyhouse (2m5f Handicap Chase)

1️⃣ Thelonglad
Trainer: Michael J. McDonagh | Jockey: C. M. Quirke
Key Form: Looked poised for victory before falling two out on chase debut at Limerick over 2m1f on soft ground.
Why: Thelonglad was travelling strongly when falling on his chase debut, suggesting there's plenty of promise. Upped in trip, he can make amends, especially with the benefit of that experience under his belt.

2️⃣ Mighty Oak Lad
Trainer: Karl Thornton | Jockey: Donagh Meyler
Key Form: Consistent performer with a solid third in a competitive novice chase at Cork over 2m4f, finishing clear of the rest.
Why: A reliable contender who handles testing conditions well. Mighty Oak Lad’s recent form shows he’s in good heart, and his ability to stay on strongly will be an asset over this trip.

3️⃣ Rochestown
Trainer: Brendan Maurice Walsh | Jockey: Sean Flanagan
Key Form: Impressive winner of a 15-runner handicap hurdle at Tramore last time, showing determination and stamina.
Why: Though switching back to fences, Rochestown’s recent hurdle win suggests he’s in peak form. His proven stamina and competitive spirit make him a strong contender for a place.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Quornofamonday
Trainer: J. P. Dempsey | Jockey: Keith Donoghue
Key Form: Running well in third when falling at the last in a handicap chase at Down Royal recently.
Why: Quornofamonday was in contention before an unfortunate fall last time out. If he can avoid mistakes, he has the potential to sneak into the frame, offering value at longer odds.

🏇 Race 3 - 13:55 Fairyhouse (3m Chase)

1️⃣ Sa Majeste
Trainer: W. P. Mullins | Jockey: P. Townend
Key Form: Impressive chase winner at Tipperary over 2m7f, before facing tough Grade 1 company at Limerick, finishing fifth.
Why: Back in calmer waters after a challenging Grade 1 run, Sa Majeste has shown enough chasing potential to dominate here. With Mullins’ magic and Townend’s expertise, he’s expected to bounce back strongly over this longer trip.

2️⃣ Affordale Fury
Trainer: Noel Meade | Jockey: Donagh Meyler
Key Form: Promising chaser with a Galway win under his belt. Pulled up in a Grade 2 but retains potential after a break.
Why: Despite the layoff, Affordale Fury’s early chasing form suggests untapped potential. If fit and ready, he’s a major player with strong staying credentials to challenge Sa Majeste.

3️⃣ Fil Dor
Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: Sam Ewing
Key Form: Smart chaser with six career wins, including a victory at Thurles over 2m6f. Respectable fourth in the Kinloch Brae Chase recently.
Why: Fil Dor’s consistency at a high level makes him a reliable contender. The step up to 3m could unlock more improvement, especially if the pace suits his stamina.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Any Second Now
Trainer: T. M. Walsh | Jockey: M. P. Walsh
Key Form: Grand National veteran with top-class past form, including a runner-up finish in the Irish National last season.
Why: Though aged 13, Any Second Now thrives in marathon tests. If he’s fit after the break, his experience and staying power could see him outstay younger rivals, especially in testing conditions.

🏇 Race 4 - 14:25 Fairyhouse (2m Novice Hurdle)

1️⃣ Puturhandstogether
Trainer: Joseph Patrick O'Brien | Jockey: M. P. Walsh
Key Form: Cosy winner of a 20-runner juvenile hurdle at Cork over 2m on soft ground, showing significant improvement from debut.
Why: A rapidly improving type with solid flat credentials and strong form over hurdles. His Cork win was authoritative, and with Joseph O'Brien’s excellent handling of juveniles, he’s the one to beat here.

2️⃣ Gers Gigi
Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: Sam Ewing
Key Form: Consistent performer with a win at Sligo and a strong third in a competitive handicap hurdle at Cork last time.
Why: Back down in trip, Gers Gigi’s stamina and sharp turn of foot could prove crucial. Elliott’s horses are always competitive in novice events, and she’s got solid form to suggest she’ll be right in the mix.

3️⃣ Collaborative
Trainer: Oliver McKiernan | Jockey: Phillip Enright
Key Form: Career-best effort to win a 2m4f handicap hurdle at Navan recently, staying on strongly in soft conditions.
Why: In great form with progressive performances this season. The drop back to 2m shouldn’t be an issue given his tactical speed, and he’s a live contender if the race turns into a stamina test late on.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Whimsy
Trainer: Anthony McCann | Jockey: Sean Flanagan
Key Form: Placed in several novice hurdles, including a solid third at Cheltenham despite the race not suiting her style.
Why: Whimsy’s Cheltenham run suggests she’s got ability, and if the race unfolds at a strong pace, she could capitalise late. Overlooked by many, she’s capable of sneaking into the places at decent odds.

🏇 Race 5 - 14:55 Fairyhouse (2m Maiden Hurdle)

1️⃣ Legionnaire Forez
Trainer: W. P. Mullins | Jockey: P. Townend
Key Form: Impressive second in a French bumper, now with top connections after a €140,000 purchase.
Why: Strong debut form in France, and now under the care of Willie Mullins with Paul Townend in the saddle—this is a potent combination. The market support (trading around 1.77) underlines confidence. Expected to control the race pace and class should shine through.

2️⃣ Good To Be Alive
Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: Sam Ewing
Key Form: Unraced but bred for success; a Shirocco gelding from a yard renowned for smart debutants.
Why: Elliott’s runners often shine in maiden hurdles, and this well-bred gelding could go close on debut. Market support (hovering around 7.0) suggests he’s showing ability at home. Expect a bold showing with improvement likely as the race unfolds.

3️⃣ Sundance Sioux
Trainer: Cian Hughes | Jockey: B. W. Harvey
Key Form: Fourth on hurdles debut at Punchestown; showed promise in testing conditions.
Why: That Punchestown run hinted at potential, and he’s likely to improve with experience. A solid each-way chance, especially if the race turns tactical. His prior flat ability adds to his credentials over this trip.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Imarajan
Trainer: Eddie & Patrick Harty | Jockey: K. E. Buckley
Key Form: Flat form suggests ability, particularly when runner-up at the Curragh; debut over hurdles with a tongue strap applied.
Why: Market fluctuations (from 4.6 out to 14) might suggest mixed confidence, but his flat stamina could prove valuable. An under-the-radar contender capable of sneaking into the frame if adapting well to hurdles.

🏇 Race 6 - 15:25 Fairyhouse (2m Maiden Hurdle)

1️⃣ Karoline Banbou
Trainer: W. P. Mullins | Jockey: M. P. Walsh
Key Form: Dual French bumper winner; runner-up on Irish hurdles debut at Naas, showing clear promise.
Why: A classy mare with solid credentials, she shaped well when second in a large field on debut over hurdles. With expected improvement and strong market confidence (1.57), she looks primed to go one better for top connections.

2️⃣ Place De La Nation
Trainer: W. P. Mullins | Jockey: S. F. O'Keeffe
Key Form: French import who finished third in a competitive juvenile hurdle at Auteuil, now debuting for Mullins.
Why: This unexposed type is intriguing, especially under Mullins’ guidance. If the betting vibes strengthen near post time, she could pose a significant threat, with natural progression likely on Irish debut.

3️⃣ Swing Davis
Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: Sam Ewing
Key Form: Placed in all three starts, including a solid second on hurdles debut at this track recently.
Why: Consistency is her strong suit, and she’s already shown she handles Fairyhouse well. While she might lack the flair of the Mullins duo, her reliable form makes her a strong place contender.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Flashaway
Trainer: Charles Byrnes | Jockey: Miss A. L. Fitzgibbon
Key Form: Former bumper winner for Willie Mullins, now with Byrnes, making hurdles debut after a break.
Why: Byrnes is a shrewd trainer known for springing surprises, and this mare’s change of yard adds intrigue. While the market is cautious, she could outperform her odds if ready to fire first time over hurdles.

🏇 Race 7 - 15:55 Fairyhouse (2m4f Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ The Nagger Reidy
Trainer: Stephen Gerard Carey | Jockey: C. Stone-Walsh
Key Form: Winner at Listowel in September, followed by a strong second at Tipperary. Unseated last time when travelling well.
Why: He’s proven over this trip with solid form in competitive handicaps. Despite his last outing ending with an unseat, he looked to be in contention. Back in calmer waters here, his strong, consistent form makes him the one to beat.

2️⃣ Wendell's Lass NON RUNNER
Trainer: T. Gibney | Jockey: D. J. O'Keeffe
Key Form: Going well before falling two out at Punchestown in a similar event last month.
Why: She was travelling strongly when falling late last time, suggesting she would’ve been involved at the finish. Cheekpieces seemed to sharpen her up, and if none the worse for that spill, she’s a major threat.

3️⃣ Mickie Angel
Trainer: Gavin Patrick Cromwell | Jockey: Keith Donoghue
Key Form: Ran better than the bare result when sixth over a longer trip last time, having set a strong pace.
Why: The drop back in trip should suit, as he faded late over three miles. His front-running style could be more effective here, and Cromwell’s runners often find improvement in these types of races.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Elusive Guy
Trainer: Jarlath P. Fahey | Jockey: P. T. Smithers
Key Form: Eye-catching second at Clonmel on soft ground, showing a strong late finish.
Why: He’s on the up after that big run last time. Conditions suit, and his stamina will be an asset if they go a strong pace. A lively outsider who could surprise at nice odds.

🏇 Race 8 - 16:25 Fairyhouse (2m4f Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Next Stop Paris
Trainer: Gavin Patrick Cromwell | Jockey: Keith Donoghue
Key Form: Showed promise when seventh in a Leopardstown novice hurdle, finishing strongly without being fully extended.
Why: With Cromwell’s knack for improving handicappers, this lightly raced gelding looks primed to progress over this longer trip. His novice runs suggested untapped potential, and the handicap debut could unlock further improvement.

2️⃣ Doyen Flyer
Trainer: James M. Barcoe | Jockey: Kieran Callaghan
Key Form: Bounced back to form with a strong fifth in a large-field handicap at Punchestown on heavy ground.
Why: Proven stamina and a solid recent effort make her a key player. Running off the same mark, she’s capable of building on that promising effort, especially if the ground remains testing.

3️⃣ Southgate Avenue
Trainer: Philip Fenton | Jockey: Niall Moore
Key Form: Showed potential when staying on late for sixth in a Tramore maiden; struggled last time but that should sharpen him.
Why: Now making his handicap debut, he could surprise at decent odds. The switch to handicap company and the step up in trip look likely to suit his running style.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Chosen Diamond
Trainer: Edward Cawley | Jockey: P. Byrnes
Key Form: Runner-up in heavy-ground handicap hurdles last season, though below par on seasonal return.
Why: Likely needed the run after a long layoff, and with fitness improved, he could sneak into contention. Market moves will be telling, but he’s a value play if bouncing back.