Festival Fever at Cheltenham – Big-Priced Winners & Lucky 15 Picks! (12th March 2025)

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
19th to 25th January 2025
Starting Bankroll £30
5th March 2025 top-up total £90
Wk 1 £35 Wk 2 £32.01 Wk 3 -£18.12
Wk 4 £30.31 WK 5 £33.76 Wk 6 -£20.39
Wk 7 £37.14

WEEK 8 £36.09 (4th top-up £30)
Sun - £16.34 Lucky 15 Strategy
Mon - -£5.00 Lucky 15 Strategy
Tue - -£6.64 Lucky 15 Strategy
Wed - -£5.75 Lucky 15 Strategy
Thrs - £
Fri - £
Sat - £
Combination Tricast Betting Strategy A one-off experiment Return £2.50 25/2/25

Note from Coldjack: "Lucky 15 Cheltenham Day 2". We were saved by the last race winner from total wipeout yesterday. Hobby has been updated and the picks are tuned up. Can another "flash-in-the-pan" be waiting to drop? Only way to find out... We GIVE IT another go!

Betfair Sportsbook odds were placed at 12:15

The Lucky 15 bet is well-structured for maximum value, and if all four selections win, that £7.50 stake could return a good payout of £59.42 returned £1.75

Stakes £7.50 Winning £00.00 (P/L) losing £5.75

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥

Modest returns for the 'Trickey Trixie'
Patent punting for the 'zsar bomba' of booms!
(1pt = £1 Pick Your Own Point Level & Runners)

1️⃣ Lucky 15 Analysis: What Went Right & What Went Wrong?

Your Lucky 15 selection:

• Final Demand (13:20 Cheltenham) – 2.5 (Placed 3rd) ❌

• Ballyburn (14:00 Cheltenham) – 1.61 (Unplaced) ❌

• Stumptown (15:20 Cheltenham) – 3.5 (WIN) ✅

• Jonbon (16:00 Cheltenham) – 1.9 (2nd) ❌

Lucky 15 Performance:

• Total Stake: £7.50

• Returns: £1.75

• Success Rate: 1/4 winners (Stumptown)

Key Takeaways:

✔ Stumptown justified confidence – A strong festival specialist, handled the course well, and market support was spot on.

❌ Final Demand & Ballyburn disappointment – Both heavily favoured but failed to deliver. Final Demand was outstayed in a strong finish, while Ballyburn underperformed in a shock result.

❌ Jonbon beaten comprehensively – Even though he finished 2nd, Marine Nationale had far too much class. Market confidence was misleading.

Improvements for Future Lucky 15 Bets:

• Diversify price range: All selections were relatively short-priced; this can be a high-risk approach in festival betting where upsets are frequent.

• Consider market movements closer to race time: Ballyburn had late market drift, which could have been a red flag.

• Balance between ‘Bankers’ & ‘Value Plays’: Sticking with only favourites didn’t work here—look at each-way alternatives next time.

2️⃣ Race-by-Race Breakdown: Pre-Race Expectations vs Results

🏇 13:20 – Turners Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1)

Pre-Race Prediction:

• Final Demand (2.5) was the banker bet.

• Forecast with The New Lion was considered.

Actual Result:

1. The New Lion (3/1) – WINNER

2. The Yellow Clay (5/2) – 2nd

3. Final Demand (6/4 Fav) – 3rd ❌

📊 Takeaways:

• Final Demand lacked the turn of foot when it mattered.

• The New Lion’s toughness & patient ride from Harry Skelton made the difference.

• Adjustment: Final Demand may be better suited to softer ground or a slightly longer trip.

🏇 14:00 – Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (Grade 1)

Pre-Race Prediction:

• Ballyburn (1.61) – Banker bet

• Dancing City & Better Days Ahead mentioned as place options.

Actual Result:

1. Lecky Watson (20/1) – WINNER ❌

2. Stellar Story (22/1) – 2nd

3. Better Days Ahead (13/2) – 3rd ✅

📊 Takeaways:

• Ballyburn flopped completely; a shocking performance.

• Lecky Watson, a big outsider, stayed on strongly—a stamina horse in disguise.

• Adjustment: Be wary of novices with limited 3m chase experience. Mullins horses often improve massively with distance.

🏇 14:40 – Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)

Pre-Race Prediction:

• Be Aware (4.5) – Strongly backed favourite

• Impose Toi (7.0) – Progressive

• Bunting (8.5) – Market mover

Actual Result:

1. Jimmy Du Seuil (16/1) – WINNER ❌

2. Impose Toi (13/2) – 2nd ✅

3. Ballyadam (16/1) – 3rd

📊 Takeaways:

• Handicap hurdles at Cheltenham are notoriously unpredictable.

• Impose Toi (2nd) was a good call, but winner Jimmy Du Seuil defied a long layoff.

• Adjustment: In large-field handicaps, avoid backing too many short-priced horses. Spread bets across different price ranges.

🏇 15:20 – Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase

Pre-Race Prediction:

• Stumptown (3.5) – Banker bet ✅

• Forecast: Stumptown / Galvin

• Vanillier (7.5) – Each-way bet

Actual Result:

1. Stumptown (5/2 Fav) – WINNER ✅

2. Latenightpass (11/1) – 2nd

3. Vanillier (15/2) – 3rd ✅

📊 Takeaways:

• Best result of the day! 🎯

• Cross-country specialists always hold strong festival form.

• Adjustment: Continue backing specialists in these unique races; experience matters.

🏇 16:00 – Champion Chase

Pre-Race Prediction:

• Jonbon (1.9) – Banker bet ❌

• Marine Nationale (5.5) considered a danger.

Actual Result:

1. Marine Nationale (5/1) – WINNER ✅

2. Jonbon (5/6 Fav) – 2nd

3. Captain Guinness (25/1) – 3rd

📊 Takeaways:

• Jonbon never travelled well; Marine Nationale had far too much class.

• Adjustment: Be cautious backing short-priced horses in open Grade 1s—especially if they’ve not had recent strong competition.

🏇 16:40 – Grand Annual Chase

Pre-Race Prediction:

• Unexpected Party (6.5) – Defending champion

• JPR One (8.5) – Value each-way

Actual Result:

1. Jazzy Matty (15/2) – WINNER ✅

2. Unexpected Party (11/2) – 2nd ✅

3. Midnight It Is (25/1) – 3rd

📊 Takeaways:

• A solid race for your picks—two placed runners.

• Jazzy Matty’s late support proved accurate.

• Adjustment: In festival handicaps, always back horses that have been well supported in the final hour before the off.

🏇 17:20 – Champion Bumper

Pre-Race Prediction:

• Copacabana (3.5) – Top Mullins horse

• Gameofinches (5.5) – Strong value

Actual Result:

1. Bambino Fever (4/1) – WINNER ❌

2. Heads Up (33/1) – 2nd

3. Shuttle Diplomacy (66/1) – 3rd

📊 Takeaways:

• Total wipeout for the Mullins brigade—Copacabana and Gameofinches were nowhere.

• Adjustment: The bumper is always tricky—stick to proven Festival trainers like Mullins but avoid overbetting favourites.

🔎 Final Review – Where You Got It Right & Wrong

✅ Good Calls

✔ Stumptown (WINNER) ✔ Vanillier (E/W Place) ✔ Unexpected Party (2nd) ✔ Impose Toi (2nd)

❌ Areas for Improvement

❌ Over-reliance on short-priced favourites. ❌ Ballyburn flop was costly. ❌ Jonbon overhyped—better to hedge against him.

📌 Adjustments for Future Festival Betting

🔹 Mix short-priced selections with bigger-priced value picks.
🔹 Use late market trends for final decision-making.
🔹 Festival handicaps are minefields—spread risk across multiple runners.
🔹 Look for specialist horses in unique races (Cross Country, Bumper, etc.).

Pre-racing Preview Predictions

Cheltenham Festival - Day Two Betting Plan

My Bets

💰 Lucky 15 @ 15 Lines - Stake: £7.50
➡ Final Demand (13:20 Cheltenham) - 2.5
➡ Ballyburn (14:00 Cheltenham) - 1.61
➡ Stumptown (15:20 Cheltenham) - 3.5
➡ Jonbon (16:00 Cheltenham) - 1.9

📊 Potential Returns: £59.42
✅ Cash Out Option: £7.50 (No Profit Yet)

🎯 Each-Way Bets:

• Vanillier (15:20 Cheltenham) – Big price, could surprise

• JPR One (16:40 Cheltenham) – Well-handicapped, strong place claims

• Gameofinches (17:20 Cheltenham) – High potential, strong value

📈 Forecast/Tricast Options:

• Forecast (13:20 Cheltenham) – Final Demand / The New Lion

• Forecast (15:20 Cheltenham) – Stumptown / Galvin

Updated Lucky 15 Bet (Best Selections)

✅ Final Demand (13:20 Cheltenham) – Top novice hurdler, banker bet
✅ Ballyburn (14:00 Cheltenham) – Outstanding chaser, major favourite
✅ Jonbon (16:00 Cheltenham) – Unbeatable on form, most confident selection
✅ Stumptown (15:20 Cheltenham) – Cross Country specialist, huge market support

🎯 This Lucky 15 focuses on the strongest market leaders and proven festival form.

Gamble Responsibly! Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which Hobby Picks are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.
Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

🏇 Race-by-Race Predictions

Race 1 - 13:20 Cheltenham - Turners Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1)

• Final Demand (2.5) – Market favourite, Grade 1 winner, top-class prospect.

• The New Lion (2.88) – Unbeaten over hurdles, Challow Hurdle winner, strong Timeform rating.

• The Yellow Clay (5.0) – Lawlor’s of Naas winner, solid Grade 1 form, big player.

🔹 Adjustment: Market continues to favour Final Demand & The New Lion, making them a strong forecast option.

Race 2 - 14:00 Cheltenham - Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (Grade 1)

• Ballyburn (1.61) – Top-class novice, heavy favourite, market shows strong confidence.

• Dancing City (6.0) – Progressive chaser, improving steadily.

• Better Days Ahead (10.0) – Grade 1 form, value option at current price.

🔹 Adjustment: Ballyburn has strengthened as the banker bet, with Dancing City & Better Days Ahead offering value in the places.

Race 3 - 14:40 Cheltenham - Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)

• Be Aware (4.5) – Well-backed, shaped well in key handicaps, improving performer.

• Impose Toi (7.0) – Strong Timeform rating, won at Newbury, progressive profile.

• Bunting (8.5) – Caught the market's attention, well-backed, improving steadily.

🔹 Adjustment: Market strongly backing Be Aware, suggesting it is a major player for the win.

Race 4 - 15:20 Cheltenham - Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase (3m5f, Handicap)

• Stumptown (3.5) – Progressive, won last 3 cross-country races, including C&D. Banker bet.

• Galvin (4.33) – Proven festival form, strong second in 2023, major player.

• Vanillier (7.5) – Back to form with impressive Punchestown win, dangerous if repeating.

🔹 Adjustment: Market strongly backs Stumptown, with Galvin & Vanillier solid each-way plays.

Race 5 - 16:00 Cheltenham - BetMGM Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1, 2m)

• Jonbon (1.9) – Dominant form, easily beat Energumene in Clarence House Chase.

• Marine Nationale (5.5) – Supreme Novices’ winner, improving chaser, could run a big race.

• Energumene (7.5) – Defending champion, but declining form, place chance only.

🔹 Adjustment: Jonbon is the clear banker, while Marine Nationale & Energumene battle for places.

Race 6 - 16:40 Cheltenham - Debenhams Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (2m Handicap)

• Unexpected Party (6.5) – Defending champion, strong festival form, peaking at the right time.

• JPR One (8.5) – Proven Grade 2 chaser, best handicapped runner.

• Jazzy Matty (7.5) – Well-backed, improving novice chaser, dangerous if jumping well.

🔹 Adjustment: Market respects Unexpected Party, while JPR One & Jazzy Matty hold each-way claims.

Race 7 - 17:20 Cheltenham - Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1, 2m)

• Copacabana (3.5) – Top Mullins bumper horse, highly rated after Navan debut win.

• Gameofinches (5.5) – Visually impressive at Punchestown, highly regarded.

• Kalypsochance (6.0) – Listed winner at Navan, Elliott’s strongest contender.

🔹 Adjustment: Market strongly backs Copacabana, with Gameofinches & Kalypsochance as key rivals.

Additional Notes

📌 Going: Good to Soft (Good in places).
📌 Weather: Temperatures at 7°C, early snow/sleet has cleared.
📌 Race Status: No changes, all races proceeding as planned.

We’re trialling this approach across UK, Irish, and U.S. racing to see where it offers the most value. Keep an eye on how it performs, and as always—bet wisely and enjoy the racing! 🏇🔥

"May you never be a penny short of a full wallet."

ChatGPT said:

Now that is a blessing I’ll gladly take! 🙌 May your accas always land, your favourites stay strong, and your pint never run dry on a good race day. 🍻🏇💰

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥