Full ITV Seven Selections, Newbury & Warwick - 7th February 2025

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
Starting Bankroll £30
Top Ups to Bankroll £00.00
19th to 25th January 2025
Wk 1 - £35 - Wk 2 - £32.01

Week 3 - £18.12
Sun - £03.56
Mon - -£0.64
Tue - -£7.00
Wed - -£2.22
Thrs - £0.01
Fri - -£7.50
Sat - -£0.67

Note from Coldjack: Yesterday We were not even close to a payout. we go again.

Trixie @4 Lines
Kruger Park | Djelo | Favour And Fortune
Stake £4.00 (4 x £1.00) Returns £178.75
Djelo won others lost Returns NIL

(Each Way) Patent @14 Lines
Haiti Couleurs | Hitman | Joyeuse
Stake £3.50 (14 x £0.25) Returns £57.33
all 3 were placed, joyeuse won

Stakes £7.50 Winning £6.83 losing £0.67
Modest returns for the 'Trickey Trixie'
Patent punting for the 'zsar bomba' of booms!
(1pt = £1 Pick Your Own Point Level & Runners)

Overall Debrief

• Trixie Bet #1: 1/3 (Djelo won, Kruger Park & Favour And Fortune missed).

• Trixie Bet #2: 2/3 (Joyeuse WON and Hitman placed, Haiti Couleurs placed but didn’t win).

• ITV7: 3/7 correct.

Key Takeaways

• Over-reliance on favourites led to missed big prices.

• Listed & Handicap races produced unexpected results.

• Value betting needed more emphasis.

Final Grade: B- A fair day with solid wins, but some major missed opportunities on outsiders

Comprehensive Critique & Debrief: Warwick & Newbury Races - 8th February 2025

Warwick Analysis

12:55 - Juvenile Maiden Hurdle

• Prediction Verdict: Mixed

• Result: 1st - Aviemore (4/1), 2nd - Ocean Conquest (5/1), 3rd - Lucky Bere (11/4 fav)

• Analysis:

  • Winning pick: Aviemore was well-backed and ran to expectations, staying on strongly.

  • Lucky Bere (fav): Ran well but found two too strong. The betting market correctly identified him as a leading contender, but he wasn't necessarily value.

  • Ocean Conquest: Some may have overlooked him, but the price indicated he had a chance, and he ran a solid race.

  • Miss: No major upset, but if we backed Lucky Bere as the strong play, it underperformed relative to price.

1:30 - Handicap Hurdle

• Prediction Verdict: Good

• Result: 1st - Celtic Art (4/1), 2nd - Casi Crudo (13/2), 3rd - Sao Carlos (10/3 fav)

• Analysis:

  • Winning pick: Celtic Art was well within the expected range and provided solid value at 4/1.

  • Sao Carlos (fav): Was tipped but lacked finishing kick. A respectable run but might have been too short in price for the risk.

  • Casi Crudo: Another well-supported runner that finished strongly—correctly noted as one to watch.

  • Success: The key picks finished in the top three, and anyone playing an each-way bet would have profited.

2:05 - Kingmaker Novices' Chase (G2)

• Prediction Verdict: Spot On

• Result: 1st - L’eau Du Sud (1/5 fav), 2nd - Rubaud (5/1), 3rd - Tedley (16/1)

• Analysis:

  • No surprises: L’eau Du Sud was by far the best horse in the race and confirmed superiority.

  • Prediction confidence matched outcome: The Skelton runner delivered, and those who followed advice had an easy win.

  • Tricast bets may have missed: If we leaned towards a more competitive race, the result was too predictable for a big return.

2:40 - Mares’ Hurdle (Listed)

• Prediction Verdict: Major Miss

• Result: 1st - Royale Margaux (12/1), 2nd - Sunday Soldier (50/1), 3rd - Gala Marceau (1/1 fav)

• Analysis:

  • Gala Marceau underperformed: As a 1/1 fav, this was a disappointment. Backing her would have led to a loss.

  • Royale Margaux was overlooked: At 12/1, she represented a big value bet that was not identified as a key contender.

  • Sunday Soldier at 50/1: An even bigger upset, completely unexpected in pre-race analysis.

  • Lesson: Heavy favourites aren't always the right play in open mares' races. Listed races often produce shock results.

3:15 - Veterans’ Handicap Chase

• Prediction Verdict: Spot On

• Result: 1st - Le Milos (5/4 fav), 2nd - Whistleinthedark (7/2), 3rd - Smarty Wild (17/2)

• Analysis:

  • Le Milos justified favouritism: Clear standout in the race.

  • Each-way value found: Whistleinthedark was a strong supporting bet at 7/2.

  • Good results overall: If backing the favourite or an each-way bet, profit was made.

3:48 - Handicap Hurdle

• Prediction Verdict: Moderate

• Result: 1st - Irish Hill (15/2), 2nd - Panic Attack (13/8 fav), 3rd - Act Of Authority (2/1)

• Analysis:

  • Favourite panic attack just edged out: This was close to expectation.

  • Irish Hill provided good value: At 15/2, it was an overlooked contender.

  • Verdict: No major mistakes in assessment, but if the strong favourite was the key pick, there was some disappointment.

4:23 - NH Flat Race

• Prediction Verdict: Correct

• Result: 1st - Strong Run (11/10 fav), 2nd - Highland Haven (12/1), 3rd - Roses All The Way (9/2)

• Analysis:

  • Favourite won as expected.

  • Highland Haven exceeded expectations.

  • Good overall read on the race.

Newbury Analysis

1:15 - Novices' Hurdle

• Prediction Verdict: Moderate

• Result: 1st - Rubber Ball (7/2), 2nd - Tutti Quanti (11/8), 3rd - Kientzheim (6/5 fav)

• Analysis:

  • Favourite Kientzheim underperformed.

  • Rubber Ball provided value.

  • Tutti Quanti was a solid pick.

1:50 - Handicap Hurdle

• Prediction Verdict: Mixed

• Result: 1st - Santos Blue (14/1), 2nd - Magical King (5/1), 3rd - Haiti Couleurs (4/1)

• Analysis:

  • Kruger Park missed: The key selection was not in the top three.

  • Haiti Couleurs placed: This was a decent result, but not a win.

  • Santos Blue was overlooked at a big price.

2:25 - Denman Chase

• Prediction Verdict: Good

• Result: 1st - Djelo (6/4 fav), 2nd - Hitman (4/1), 3rd - Bravemansgame (3/1)

• Analysis:

  • Djelo won as expected.

  • Hitman ran well.

  • Bravemansgame continues to decline.

3:00 - Game Spirit Chase

• Prediction Verdict: Major Miss

• Result: 1st - Master Chewy (11/1), 2nd - Libberty Hunter (9/2), 3rd - Matata (11/8 fav)

• Analysis:

  • Matata underperformed.

  • Master Chewy was a shock.

  • Lesson: Over-reliance on short-priced runners in tricky Grade 2 races.

3:35 - Handicap Hurdle

• Prediction Verdict: Correct

• Result: 1st - Joyeuse (9/2), 2nd - Lump Sum (16/1), 3rd - Navajo Indy (6/1)

• Analysis:

  • Joyeuse delivered.

  • Lump Sum was the each-way bet.

4:10 - Handicap Chase

• Prediction Verdict: Moderate

• Result: 1st - Lord Of Thunder (11/2), 2nd - Pic Roc (9/4), 3rd - Herakles Westwood (2/1 fav)

• Analysis:

  • Lord Of Thunder was value.

  • Herakles Westwood underperformed.

4:45 - NH Flat Race

• Prediction Verdict: Correct

• Result: 1st - Sober Glory (15/8 fav), 2nd - Realco (7/1), 3rd - Baron Noir (15/2)

• Analysis:

  • Favourite won as expected.

  • Realco was a strong each-way option.

.

Today's Selections -

🏇 Trixie Bet #1: The Consistency Play (Lower-risk, high-probability selections)

This bet focuses on consistent performers with strong recent form and effective jockey-trainer partnerships. The goal is to land at least two winners for a solid return.

Selections:

1️⃣ Kruger Park (13:50 Newbury) – ★★★★★

• Course winner, consistent recent form, and from a strong stable (Paul Nicholls).

• Handles soft conditions well and remains unexposed over this trip.

• Slight weight rise shouldn’t be an issue.
  

2️⃣ Djelo (14:25 Newbury) – ★★★★☆

• Peterborough Chase winner and still improving.

• Won at Newbury before and should relish conditions.

• Was beaten last time but remains one of the class acts in this race.
  

3️⃣ Favour And Fortune (15:35 Newbury) – ★★★★★

• Scottish Champion Hurdle winner with multiple form boosts.

• Strong finisher and expected to improve from seasonal return.

• Should be well-suited by today’s likely strong pace.
  

💰 Bet Type: Trixie (4 bets: 3 doubles + 1 treble)
🎯 Focus: Aim for at least two winners for a strong return.

🏇 Trixie Bet #2: The All-Ways Patent (Higher-Risk Play)

This bet targets higher odds selections with strong potential but some question marks. Even one winner covers much of the stake, while two yield profit, and three would mean a big payout.

Selections:

1️⃣ Haiti Couleurs (13:50 Newbury) – ★★★☆☆

• Trainer: Rebecca Curtis

• Jockey: Sean Bowen

• Current Odds: Approximately 7.0 (6/1)

Key Form: Haiti Couleurs arrives on a hat-trick after impressive wins over fences at Aintree and Cheltenham. Reverts to hurdles for this handicap debut.

Analysis: This likeable and improving type has been thriving over fences and could be well treated back in this sphere. His jumping ability and proven stamina suggest he can adapt well and make an impact.

2️⃣ Hitman (14:25 Newbury) – ★★★★☆

• Trainer: Paul Nicholls

• Jockey: Freddie Gingell

• Current Odds: Approximately 6.5 (11/2)

Key Form: Finished runner-up in this race for the last two years and arrives in great form after another second at Ascot.

Analysis: He may not win as often as connections would like, but he’s ultra-consistent at this level. Hitman travels strongly in his races and is likely to be in the mix again. With conditions suiting and a proven track record, he’s a big player.

3️⃣ Joyeuse (15:35 Newbury) – ★★★☆☆

• Trainer: Nicky Henderson

• Jockey: Nico de Boinville

• Current Odds: Approximately 8.0 (7/1)

Key Form: Lightly raced and full of potential, finishing a strong second at Cheltenham over 2m4f last time out.

Analysis: A half-sister to Champion Hurdle winner Epatante, she’s highly unexposed and could have plenty more to offer. If she handles the drop back in trip, she could be a surprise package.

Bet Type: Patent (7 bets: 3 singles, 3 doubles, 1 treble)

Focus: This bet targets higher odds selections with strong potential but some question marks. Even one winner covers much of the stake, while two yield profit, and three would mean a big payout.

Please note that odds are subject to change. It's advisable to check the latest odds with your bookmaker before placing bets.
💰 Bet Type: Patent (7 bets: 3 singles, 3 doubles, 1 treble)
🎯 Focus: One winner covers much of the stake, two bring profit, and three would be excellent.

🚀 ITV Seven Selections - 8th February 2025

Full ITV7 Selections:
1️⃣ Sao Carlos (13:30 Warwick)
2️⃣ Kruger Park (13:50 Newbury)
3️⃣ Leau Du Sud (14:05 Warwick)
4️⃣ Djelo (14:25 Newbury)
5️⃣ Gala Marceau (14:40 Warwick)
6️⃣ Matata (15:00 Newbury)
7️⃣ Favour And Fortune (15:35 Newbury)

💰 Strategy:

• Play this as a straight accumulator or each-way multiple for big returns.

• For smaller stakes, consider doubles and trebles to increase chances of a return.

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which 'obby Picks (dropping Hs since the dog chewed my denture) are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.
Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

Full ITV Seven Selections - 8th February 2025

🏇 13:30 Warwick (2m Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Sao Carlos

• Trainer: Olly Murphy | Jockey: Jack Tudor

• Key Form: Bumper and hurdle winner. Respectable 5th at Uttoxeter on reappearance and now 3lb lower. Underwent wind surgery and could improve.

• Why: The market suggests confidence, and Olly Murphy has a strong record with horses post-wind surgery. If responding well to the operation, he’s handicapped to go close.

2️⃣ Kart Destruval

• Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton

• Key Form: French winner but flopped badly on British debut when favourite. Has since undergone wind surgery.

• Why: Dan Skelton is a master at readying horses after a breathing operation. Likely to be a completely different proposition and worth noting if strong in the betting.

3️⃣ Celtic Art

• Trainer: Jeremy Scott | Jockey: Lorcan Williams

• Key Form: Respectable 4th at Taunton last time and now below last winning mark.

• Why: Conditions suit, and he’s got a consistent profile in these types of races. With a handy weight and strong finishing ability, he’s a solid place contender.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Got Grey

• Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: C J Todd

• Key Form: Won back-to-back summer races before running credibly in better company. Has also had wind surgery.

• Why: The break and surgery could unlock further improvement. His early-season form was strong, and he has the potential to surprise at an each-way price.

🏇 13:50 Newbury (3m Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Kruger Park

• Trainer: Paul Nicholls | Jockey: Freddie Gingell

• Key Form: Course winner with strong recent form, finishing a close third at Uttoxeter despite racing keenly. The form of that race has been well franked.

• Why: A progressive type with solid credentials, Kruger Park is unexposed over this trip and comes from a top yard with a strong record in similar races. The slight weight rise shouldn't be a major concern, and his proven ability to handle soft conditions is a big plus.

2️⃣ Magical King

• Trainer: Stuart Edmunds | Jockey: Ciaran Gethings

• Key Form: Strong second at Haydock last time out, finishing clear of the remainder in a competitive race over a similar trip.

• Why: Consistent and improving, Magical King has run well at this level and has the stamina to feature prominently. He stays well, and with the ground conditions in his favour, expect another bold showing.

3️⃣ Haiti Couleurs

• Trainer: Rebecca Curtis | Jockey: Sean Bowen

• Key Form: Arrives on a hat-trick after impressive wins over fences at Aintree and Cheltenham. Reverts to hurdles for this handicap debut.

• Why: This likeable and improving type has been thriving over fences and could be well treated back in this sphere. His jumping ability and proven stamina suggest he can adapt well and make an impact.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Up For Parol

• Trainer: Jamie Snowden | Jockey: Gavin Sheehan

• Key Form: Snapped a losing streak with an impressive victory at Ffos Las, quickening away well in heavy conditions.

• Why: Confidence will be high after that win, and he could still be ahead of the handicapper despite a 6lb rise. With conditions to suit and a positive recent run, he looks a value each-way contender.

🏇 14:05 Warwick (2m Grade 2 Novices' Chase)

1️⃣ Leau Du Sud

• Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton

• Key Form: Unbeaten in three chase starts, including an emphatic Grade 1 success at Sandown. Proven at this level and improving with each run.

• Why: He looks a class above, and past winners of this race have gone on to top-level success. A smooth traveller who should be too good for these.

2️⃣ Rubaud

• Trainer: Paul Nicholls | Jockey: Lorcan Williams

• Key Form: Smart hurdler with wins in Kempton’s Listed and Wincanton’s Grade 2. Fell on chase debut but was facing an elite field.

• Why: He’s sure to come on for that experience, and his class should see him as the main threat to the favourite. Paul Nicholls' runners always improve for their first chase start.

3️⃣ Tedley

• Trainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies | Jockey: Jamie Brace

• Key Form: Consistent performer over fences, winning twice before placing in tougher races.

• Why: Lacks the class of the top two but is reliable and could pick up third if others falter. Has shown adaptability and a good attitude in competitive races.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Riskintheground

• Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: C J Todd

• Key Form: Won four handicaps last year but struggled in open company.

• Why: He’s a stablemate of the favourite and likely here to pick up prize money. However, if allowed to dictate the pace, he could surprise by sticking around longer than expected.

🏇 14:25 Newbury (2m7f Grade 2 Chase)

1️⃣ Djelo

• Trainer: Venetia Williams | Jockey: Charlie Deutsch

• Key Form: Impressive winner of the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon, beating high-class Protektorat. Likely yet to reach his peak.

• Why: Despite being turned over at Windsor last time, Djelo remains an improving type with strong credentials. He won at Newbury last season and looks well suited to this test. With conditions in his favour, he has every chance of bouncing back to winning ways.

2️⃣ Hitman

• Trainer: Paul Nicholls | Jockey: Freddie Gingell

• Key Form: Finished runner-up in this race for the last two years and arrives in great form after another second at Ascot.

• Why: He may not win as often as connections would like, but he’s ultra-consistent at this level. Hitman travels strongly in his races and is likely to be in the mix again. With conditions suiting and a proven track record, he’s a big player.

3️⃣ Bravemansgame

• Trainer: Paul Nicholls | Jockey: Harry Cobden

• Key Form: A multiple Grade 1 winner who was third in the Betfair Chase earlier this season but flopped in the King George.

• Why: Once a top-class chaser, but recent efforts suggest he’s not quite the force of old. However, he is unbeaten at Newbury (3-3) and the drop in class could spark a revival. If anywhere near his best, he will go close.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: GA Law

• Trainer: Jamie Snowden | Jockey: Gavin Sheehan

• Key Form: Has won high-class handicap chases at Cheltenham and was twice runner-up this season before a rare poor effort last time.

• Why: Capable of bouncing back, and his previous consistency suggests that last run can be forgiven. A good traveller who stays this trip, he could be the each-way value in a race dominated by familiar names.

🏇 14:40 Warwick (2m5f Listed Hurdle)

1️⃣ Gala Marceau

• Trainer: W. P. Mullins | Jockey: D E Mullins

• Key Form: High-class mare who chased home Lossiemouth in a Grade 1 at Punchestown. Strong form in elite company and the one to beat if ready after a break.

• Why: She sets the standard, and Willie Mullins rarely sends one over unless primed. Her proven Grade 1 form should see her outclass this field.

2️⃣ West Balboa

• Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton

• Key Form: Strong staying hurdler, back to form when fourth in a deep Kempton handicap last time.

• Why: The addition of cheekpieces could spark further improvement. With stamina assured, she could be a serious challenger if Gala Marceau underperforms.

3️⃣ You Wear It Well

• Trainer: Jamie Snowden | Jockey: J J Burke

• Key Form: Cheltenham Festival winner in 2023 and a Listed scorer last season. Returns to hurdles after a mixed chasing campaign.

• Why: Has the class to compete but carries a 4lb penalty. If she runs to her best, she’s a strong contender for the placings.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Royale Margaux

• Trainer: Tom Symonds | Jockey: Benjamin Poste

• Key Form: French import who has been knocking on the door in handicaps.

• Why: Yet to win in Britain but has been running well in strong races. A place isn’t out of the question if others underperform.

🏇 15:00 Newbury (2m Grade 2 Chase)

1️⃣ Matata

• Trainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies | Jockey: J. J. Slevin

• Key Form: Delivered a dominant win at Windsor three weeks ago, displaying class and improvement under top weight.

• Why: Matata is a bold front-runner who thrives when dictating the pace. His last win was visually impressive, and with no standout rival now that Sir Gino is a non-runner, he has a great opportunity to confirm himself as a top-class two-miler.

2️⃣ Libberty Hunter

• Trainer: Evan Williams | Jockey: Adam Wedge

• Key Form: Continued his rapid rise with a smooth win at Cheltenham in December, showing plenty of potential at this level.

• Why: He’s progressive and still unexposed in graded company. His ability to finish strongly and handle testing conditions gives him a solid chance of running a big race. A very likeable contender stepping up in class.

3️⃣ Edwardstone

• Trainer: Alan King | Jockey: Tom Cannon

• Key Form: Last year's winner but has struggled to get his head in front recently, placing in top races behind the likes of Jonbon.

• Why: Classy at his best but needs everything to fall right these days. He has the ability to trouble the front two, but younger, improving rivals may have too much for him. Place claims if he runs to form.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: JPR One

• Trainer: Joe Tizzard | Jockey: Brendan Powell

• Key Form: Won the Haldon Cup at Exeter on his return and ran respectably in the Tingle Creek, keeping on well.

• Why: Has a good strike rate when fresh and is still on the up. This is a tough ask under his penalty, but if the front-runners go too hard, he could pick up the pieces late. A lively outsider.

🏇 15:35 Newbury (2m Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Favour And Fortune

• Trainer: Alan King | Jockey: Tom Cannon

• Key Form: Won the Scottish Champion Hurdle last season, and his form has been franked multiple times. Expected to improve from his seasonal return.

• Why: A progressive type who has the class to win this off his current mark. With a strong pace likely, his ability to finish well will be a major asset. Expect a bold bid.

2️⃣ Secret Squirrel

• Trainer: Hughie Morrison | Jockey: Sean Bowen

• Key Form: Won a good race at Windsor last month, confirming promise from his fall in a valuable Ascot event. Up 5lb but remains well-handicapped.

• Why: Improving rapidly and backed up his earlier form with a convincing victory. Despite the weight rise, he looks capable of running another big race.

3️⃣ Washington

• Trainer: Harry Derham | Jockey: Paul O'Brien

• Key Form: Has thrived since joining this yard, winning at Chepstow and taking a valuable Fairyhouse prize. Has been freshened up for this.

• Why: Comes into this race off the back of two impressive wins, and his new stable has unlocked improvement. Conditions should suit, and he looks a solid each-way player.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Joyeuse

• Trainer: Nicky Henderson | Jockey: Nico de Boinville

• Key Form: Lightly raced and full of potential, finishing a strong second at Cheltenham over 2m4f last time out.

• Why: A half-sister to Champion Hurdle winner Epatante, she’s highly unexposed and could have plenty more to offer. If she handles the drop back in trip, she could be a surprise package.