Gold Cup Glory & Festival Drama – Cheltenham Day 4 Betting Guide (14th March 2025)

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
19th to 25th January 2025
Starting Bankroll £30
5th March 2025 top-up total £90
Wk 1 £35 Wk 2 £32.01 Wk 3 -£18.12
Wk 4 £30.31 WK 5 £33.76 Wk 6 -£20.39
Wk 7 £37.14

WEEK 8 £28.72 (4th top-up £30)
Sun - £16.34 Lucky 15 Strategy
Mon - -£5.00 Lucky 15 Strategy
Tue - -£6.64 Lucky 15 Strategy
Wed - -£5.75 Lucky 15 Strategy
Thrs - £3.62 Lucky 15 Strategy
Fri - £11.00 Lucky 15 Strategy
Sat - £
Combination Tricast Betting Strategy A one-off experiment Return £2.50 25/2/25

Note from Coldjack: "Lucky 15 Cheltenham Day 4". We are back in the winner's enclosure! Hobby(GPT) acted like a petulant teenager and nearly caused me to miss getting the L15 on in time. But, at least it came mighty close to a good payout. Can another "flash-in-the-pan" be waiting to drop? Only way to find out... We GIVE IT another go!

Betfair Sportsbook odds were placed at 12:10

Two Lucky 15 bets, Two Different Strategies

The Lucky 15 win bet is well-structured for maximum value, and if all four selections win, that £7.50 stake could return a payout of £390.o4 returned £4.00

Each-Way Lucky 15 Potential Return: £8,596.08 from a £7.50 stake. One winner and a couple of places could lead to a huge festival windfall! It is unlikely they will all win. Returned £nowt

Stakes £15.00 Winning £00.00 (P/L) losing £11.00

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥

Cheltenham Day 4 – Bets & Results Analysis

Part 1: Lucky 15 Performance Review

Your two Lucky 15s had mixed outcomes, with some strong selections hitting the frame but ultimately failing to produce the desired returns. Here’s the structured breakdown:

Win-Only Lucky 15 Performance

• 13:20 - Lulamba (3.5) - 2nd
  Strong run but beaten by a 100/1 shock.

• 15:20 - Jet Blue (6.5) - Unplaced
  Never in contention; stamina didn’t hold.

• 16:00 - Galopin Des Champs (1.57) - 2nd
  Beaten by a strong closer; didn’t dominate as expected.

• 17:20 - Wodhooh (8.0) - 1st
  A great winner, landing the final leg.

Returns: £4.00 from a £7.50 stake.

Assessment: One winner (Wodhooh), but Galopin Des Champs failing to deliver was a major blow. Lulamba ran well but just couldn’t handle the unexpected 100/1 outsider. Jet Blue was a complete misfire.

Key Takeaway: The selections had solid form credentials, but one heavy favourite underperforming (Galopin Des Champs) and a shock winner in the Triumph Hurdle ruined the bet.

Each-Way Lucky 15 Performance

• 14:00 - McLaurey (9.5) - Unplaced
  Never landed a blow.

• 15:20 - Intense Approach (17.0) - Unplaced
  Outsider, didn’t see out the race.

• 16:40 - Shearer (8.0) - Unplaced
  Finished outside the places.

• 17:20 - No Questions Asked (19.0) - Unplaced
  Never looked like landing a place.

Returns: £0.00 from a £7.50 stake.

Assessment: A complete loss, with none of the four selections hitting the frame.

Key Takeaway: The selections had big-priced potential, but all were off the pace. Shearer in the Hunters' Chase was the biggest disappointment, considering his strong course and distance record.

Part 2: Race-by-Race Breakdown & Performance Analysis

1.20 Cheltenham – JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m1f)

• Prediction: 1st Lulamba, 2nd East India Dock, 3rd Hello Neighbour.

• Result: 1st Poniros (100/1), 2nd Lulamba, 3rd East India Dock.

• Analysis: A huge shock with Poniros winning at 100/1. Lulamba ran well but found one too good. Your analysis was strong, picking 2nd and 3rd, but the unfancied winner was completely off the radar.

Key Takeaway: The Triumph Hurdle often throws up unexpected results, and today was no exception.

2.00 Cheltenham – County Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap, 2m1f)

• Prediction: 1st Kargese, 2nd McLaurey, 3rd Hansard.

• Result: 1st Kargese (3/1), 2nd Ndaawi (25/1), 3rd Absurde (5/1).

• Analysis: Kargese won as predicted, confirming her strong form. McLaurey (your each-way Lucky 15 pick) was a complete non-factor. Hansard finished unplaced.

Key Takeaway: Best race prediction of the day, correctly picking the winner, but McLaurey failing hurt the Lucky 15.

2.40 Cheltenham – Mares' Chase (Grade 2, 2m5f)

• Prediction: 1st Dinoblue, 2nd Limerick Lace, 3rd Allegorie De Vassy.

• Result: 1st Dinoblue (6/4), 2nd Brides Hill, 3rd Shecouldbeanything.

• Analysis: Dinoblue won as expected, confirming her class. Limerick Lace didn’t place, while Brides Hill improved to 2nd. Allegorie De Vassy struggled.

Key Takeaway: Decent call on the winner, but places didn’t match up.

3.20 Cheltenham – Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m)

• Prediction: 1st Jet Blue, 2nd Intense Approach, 3rd Ballybow.

• Result: 1st Jasmin De Vaux (6/1), 2nd The Big Westerner, 3rd Derryhassen Paddy.

• Analysis: Jet Blue was nowhere—a major disappointment. None of your selections placed.

Key Takeaway: A total misfire. Jet Blue’s stamina didn’t hold, and the market didn’t favour him late.

4.00 Cheltenham – Gold Cup (Grade 1, 3m2½f)

• Prediction: 1st Galopin Des Champs, 2nd Banbridge, 3rd Monty’s Star.

• Result: 1st Inothewayurthinkin (15/2), 2nd Galopin Des Champs, 3rd Gentlemansgame.

• Analysis: Galopin Des Champs was beaten, which hurt the Win Lucky 15 significantly. The winner, Inothewayurthinkin, had strong form but was overlooked in favour of the favourite.

Key Takeaway: Galopin was still the safest bet, but Inothewayurthinkin was underestimated.

4.40 Cheltenham – Hunters' Chase (3m2f)

• Prediction: 1st Its On The Line, 2nd Shearer, 3rd Angels Dawn.

• Result: 1st Wonderwall (28/1), 2nd Its On The Line, 3rd Willitgoahead.

• Analysis: Its On The Line ran well but was outgunned late. Shearer, a key Lucky 15 selection, finished unplaced.

Key Takeaway: Decent place prediction but unlucky not to land the win.

5.20 Cheltenham – Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle (2m4½f)

• Prediction: 1st Wodhooh, 2nd No Questions Asked, 3rd East India Express.

• Result: 1st Wodhooh (9/2), 2nd Act Of Authority (28/1), 3rd Raglan Road (25/1).

• Analysis: Great call on Wodhooh—your strongest selection of the day. No Questions Asked didn’t place.

Key Takeaway: Best betting success of the day.

Final Review & Key Takeaways

1. Wodhooh (9/2) was your standout pick, landing a winner in both the Win Lucky 15 and your outright selections.

2. Galopin Des Champs finishing 2nd hurt the Win Lucky 15 significantly.

3. Big shocks in the Triumph Hurdle (100/1 winner) and Gold Cup (15/2 winner) disrupted expectations.

4. Each-Way Lucky 15 completely flopped, with none hitting the frame.

5. Your strongest analysis came in the County Hurdle (Kargese win) and Mares’ Chase (Dinoblue win).

Refinements for Future Betting

• Avoid over-reliance on favourites in big festival handicaps—shock results are common.

• Each-way Lucky 15 should be revised—better to focus on proven festival performers rather than hopefuls at big odds.

• Consider market moves closer to race time—some selections lost favour in betting late.

Final Score: 6/10

• Solid race analysis overall.

• Some key winners landed.

• But major Lucky 15 losses hurt profitability.

Next time, tighter handicapping analysis and avoiding weak each-way selections could lead to a better return.


💥 BOOM! Job done! 💥

Cheltenham Day 4 wrapped up in style—Lucky 15s locked, bets placed, and the big winners incoming. Time to sit back, enjoy the racing, and (hopefully) count the profits!

No more blog predictions today. The work is done. 🏇🔥

Rest up, enjoy the festival, and let’s cash in!

Cheltenham Day 4: Lucky 15 Betting Strategy – Big Wins & Bold Each-Way Plays! 🏇🔥

As Gold Cup Day kicks off at Cheltenham, all eyes are on the festival’s biggest stars and biggest betting opportunities. The action is stacked with high-class Grade 1s, ultra-competitive handicaps, and stamina-testing challenges—perfect for a Lucky 15 double play!

💰 Two Lucky 15s, Two Different Strategies 💰

🎯 Lucky 15 #1 – The WIN Strategy 🎯
For those chasing the big winners, this Win-Only Lucky 15 is all about confidence, class, and proven festival form. These are selections that have the best chance of crossing the line first, based on a combination of dominant form, trainer intent, and strong market confidence.

🏆 Race 1 - 13:20 Cheltenham (JCB Triumph Hurdle – 2m1f, Grd 1)
🏇 Lulamba (3.5) – A progressive juvenile hurdler with the perfect mix of speed and stamina. With Paul Townend in the saddle and W P Mullins training, Lulamba is a major contender for Grade 1 success.

🏆 Race 4 - 15:20 Cheltenham (Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle – 3m, Grd 1)
🏇 Jet Blue (6.5) – A rising star over 3 miles, boasting a huge OR of 94 and serious festival potential. With Nicky Henderson training and Nico de Boinville riding, Jet Blue looks set to peak at the right time.

🏆 Race 5 - 16:00 Cheltenham (Gold Cup – 3m2f, Grd 1)
🏇 Galopin Des Champs (1.57) – The undisputed class act in this year’s Gold Cup. A previous festival winner, boasting a dominant OR of 102, this W P Mullins-trained superstar is the one they all have to beat.

🏆 Race 7 - 17:20 Cheltenham (Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle – 2m4f, Hcap Hrd)
🏇 Wodhooh (8.0) – A progressive, unbeaten handicapper who could be thrown in off this mark. With Mullins and Townend teaming up again, Wodhooh is primed to land a huge festival finale.

💡 WIN Lucky 15 Potential Return: £390.04 from a £7.50 stake. A strong strike rate here could lead to a huge festival payday!

🎯 Lucky 15 #2 – The Each-Way Value Play 🎯
Festival handicaps and competitive Grade 1s mean each-way betting is crucial. This Lucky 15 is designed to maximise value by targeting runners that can place at big prices and still have a sneaky chance of winning.

🏆 Race 2 - 14:00 Cheltenham (County Handicap Hurdle – 2m1f, Hcap Hrd)
🏇 McLaurey (9.5) – Peaking at the right time, showing a +16 OR improvement and running for Gordon Elliott, a festival maestro. Well-handicapped and a strong place contender.

🏆 Race 4 - 15:20 Cheltenham (Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle – 3m, Grd 1)
🏇 Intense Approach (17.0) – Big price but huge potential in a race that suits stamina horses. Has 3m form, and with Nicky Henderson in his corner, he could outrun his odds.

🏆 Race 6 - 16:40 Cheltenham (Hunters' Chase – 3m2f, Class 2)
🏇 Shearer (8.0) – A Cheltenham specialist at this trip, with 100% success at the distance. Gets cheekpieces for the first time, a key sign of intent from Paul Nicholls.

🏆 Race 7 - 17:20 Cheltenham (Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle – 2m4f, Hcap Hrd)
🏇 No Questions Asked (19.0) – A seriously well-handicapped improver, with Gavin Cromwell’s festival record speaking for itself. If the race falls apart, he could pick up the pieces at a monster price.

💡 Each-Way Lucky 15 Potential Return: £8,596.08 from a £7.50 stake. One winner and a couple of places could lead to a huge festival windfall!

Final Thoughts: Two Bets, Two Different Goals!

🔹 The Win-Only Lucky 15 is all about proven class—if these horses run to form, we could be counting straight wins and a solid payout.
🔹 The Each-Way Lucky 15 is a value-based play, aiming to land big-priced places and potentially an upset winner to unlock a massive return.
🔹 Together, these bets cover both angles—maximising profit from form, trainer/jockey confidence, and price movement insight.

🏆🔥 Will Cheltenham Gold Cup Day be the festival’s most profitable yet? The bets are on, and the excitement is building!

Early Doors predictions with BF Sports book prices are still to be analysed.

Cheltenham Festival – Day 4 Initial Race Predictions (14th March 2025)

Based on the Inform data, ATR PDF, and Super Stats, here’s my early race analysis and 1-2-3 selections for the major races.

13:20 Cheltenham – JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 1f, 4yo)

🔹 Forecast Going: Good to Soft
🔹 Key Stats: 18 runners, galloping track, stiff finish
🔹 Trends & Indicators: Strong juvenile form, previous Grade 1 experience preferred
🔹 Jockey & Trainer Form: Paul Townend (37.8%) rides Larzac (W P Mullins, 21.6% strike rate at Cheltenham)

Final 1-2-3 Selections

🥇 Lulamba (9/4) – Strongest combination of speed & stamina, consistent profile.
🥈 East India Dock (2/1) – Highest OR (96), but others may have better conditions.
🥉 Hello Neighbour (5/1) – Wearing a hood today, has been a beaten favourite before but still progressive.

💡 Larzac (25/1) could be a market mover, switching to W P Mullins' yard with first-time tongue strap.

14:00 Cheltenham – William Hill County Handicap Hurdle (Premier Hcp, 2m 1f, 5yo+)

🔹 Forecast Going: Good to Soft
🔹 Key Stats: 16 runners, large-field handicap
🔹 Trends & Indicators: Well-handicapped horses perform best, previous course form is vital
🔹 Jockey & Trainer Form: Paul Townend (37.8%) rides Kargese, W P Mullins (21.6% at Cheltenham)

Final 1-2-3 Selections

🥇 Kargese (3/1) – Best form, dropping in class, hot jockey, has a hood for the first time.
🥈 McLaurey (13/2) – Strong OR jump (+16), indicating peak form.
🥉 Hansard (10/1) – First-time cheekpieces, dropping in class, could improve.

💡 Class droppers Fils D’Oudairies & Daddy Long Legs have had Grade 3 runs before and could outrun their odds.

14:40 Cheltenham – Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase (Grade 2, 2m 5f, 5yo+)

🔹 Forecast Going: Good to Soft
🔹 Key Stats: 9 runners, mares-only chase
🔹 Trends & Indicators: Previous chase experience and form at this trip essential
🔹 Jockey & Trainer Form: Paul Townend (27.7% at Cheltenham) on Allegorie De Vassy, Mark Walsh (Dinoblue, 19%)

Final 1-2-3 Selections

🥇 Dinoblue (Evs) – Top-rated (91), first-time tongue strap, should dominate.
🥈 Limerick Lace (13/2) – Cheekpieces first-time, could challenge late.
🥉 Allegorie De Vassy (100/30) – Stable switcher, proven Grade 2 performer.

💡 Brides Hill (11/2) was a beaten favourite last time out, which raises questions about her form.

15:20 Cheltenham – Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1, 3m, 5yo+)

🔹 Forecast Going: Good to Soft
🔹 Key Stats: 20 runners, extreme stamina test
🔹 Trends & Indicators: Experience over 3m essential
🔹 Jockey & Trainer Form: Harry Cobden (25% strike rate) rides Ma Shantou

Final 1-2-3 Selections

🥇 Jet Blue F (7/1) – Huge rating (94), very progressive.
🥈 Intense Approach (16/1) – Proven 3m performer, great value.
🥉 Ballybow (11/1) – Consistent, should stay on well.

💡 Ma Shantou (50/1) was a beaten favourite last time but gets a top jockey upgrade in Harry Cobden.

16:00 Cheltenham – Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1, 3m 2½f, 5yo+)

🔹 Forecast Going: Good to Soft
🔹 Key Stats: 9 runners, stamina test
🔹 Trends & Indicators: Proven Grade 1 form essential
🔹 Jockey & Trainer Form: Paul Townend (27.7% Cheltenham strike rate) rides Galopin Des Champs

Final 1-2-3 Selections

🥇 Galopin Des Champs (4/7) – Highest OR (102), simply the best horse here.
🥈 Banbridge (5/1) – Strongest challenger, great Cheltenham form.
🥉 Monty's Star (9/1) – Improving, could sneak into places.

💡 Corbetts Cross (20/1) was a beaten favourite last time, which raises doubts about his ability in this company.

16:40 Cheltenham – Hunters' Chase (3m 2½f, 5yo+)

🔹 Forecast Going: Good to Soft
🔹 Key Stats: 24 runners, amateur jockeys
🔹 Trends & Indicators: Experience in point-to-points and staying ability crucial
🔹 Jockey & Trainer Form: Derek O’Connor (Its On The Line) is an experienced amateur rider

Final 1-2-3 Selections

🥇 Its On The Line (11/2) – Best stamina stats, top amateur rider.
🥈 Shearer (10/1) – 100% strike rate at distance, cheekpieces first-time.
🥉 Angels Dawn (100/30) – Has all the right trends, but slightly short price.

💡 What A Glance (22/1) is interesting, given its first-time tongue strap and market support.

17:20 Cheltenham – Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle (2m 4½f, 4yo+)

🔹 Forecast Going: Good to Soft
🔹 Key Stats: 24 runners, major handicap
🔹 Trends & Indicators: Lightly raced, progressive horses do best
🔹 Jockey & Trainer Form: Paul Townend rides Wodhooh

Final 1-2-3 Selections

🥇 Wodhooh (9/2) – 100% win record, very progressive.
🥈 No Questions Asked (16/1) – OR improvement, top handicap profile.
🥉 East India Express (10/1) – Market support, consistent form.

💡 No Ordinary Joe (11/1) wears a tongue strap first-time, which could bring improvement.

Final Betting Advice & Best Selections

• Best Bet: 🏆 Galopin Des Champs (16:00 Cheltenham Gold Cup, 4/7) – Simply the classiest horse in the field.

• Best Each-Way Bet: 💰 Jet Blue F (15:20, 7/1) – Major form boost, well-suited to 3m.

• Best Longshot: ⚡ No Questions Asked (17:20, 16/1) – Could be well-handicapped for a big run.

These are my final selections, factoring in all trainer, jockey, market trends, and headgear updates.
Let’s get ready for a thrilling Day 4 at Cheltenham! 🏇🔥

Gamble Responsibly! Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which Hobby Picks are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.
Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

We’re trialling this approach across UK, Irish, and U.S. racing to see where it offers the most value. Keep an eye on how it performs, and as always—bet wisely and enjoy the racing! 🏇🔥

"May you never be a penny short of a full wallet."

ChatGPT said:

Now that is a blessing I’ll gladly take! 🙌 May your accas always land, your favourites stay strong, and your pint never run dry on a good race day. 🍻🏇💰

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥