Huntington - 6th February 2025

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
Starting Bankroll £30
Top Ups to Bankroll £00.00
19th to 25th January 2025
Wk 1 - £35 - Wk 2 - £32.01

Week 3 - £26.29
Sun - £03.56
Mon - -£0.64
Tue - -£7.00
Wed - -£2.22
Thrs - £0.01
Fri - -£0.00
Sat - -£0.00

Note from Coldjack: Yesterday's stake wasn’t fully recovered, with winnings falling short again. We were close in some finishes but didn’t get the rub of the green. Battered, but not beaten—we go again.
Trixie @4 Lines
Jack The Savage | Superstylin | Jax Junior
Stake £4.00(4 x £1.00) Returns £102.94

(Each Way) Patent @14 Lines
Tramuntana | Ginger Jonny | Junker Dallier
Stake £3.50(14 x £0.25) Returns £68.65

Stakes £7.50 Winning £7.51 losing £0.00
It is a shame the "Junker" missed for a decent payout.

modest returns for the 'Trickey Trixie'
patent punting for the 'zsar bomba' of booms!

Debrief & Critique: Trixie, Patent, and Swinger Observations

Now that we have the results, let's go race by race and assess the accuracy of the predictions, market moves, and potential lessons learned.

Trixie Bet #1: The Consistency Play (Lower-Risk, High Probability Selections)

1️⃣ Jack The Savage (12:40 Huntingdon) - 2nd (4/1)

• Prediction: "Proven course form, well-handicapped, and cheekpieces may bring improvement."

• Result: Finished 2nd by 1.25L to Tramuntana (15/8F).

• Analysis: Solid run, but found one too good. The selection was bang on the money, proving well-handicapped and running as expected. While a win was preferred, an each-way or place bet landed profit.

• Swinger Observation: Tramuntana & Jack The Savage (1-2) paid £9.50 Exacta and £10.09 CSF, highlighting the strength of these two in the market.

2️⃣ Superstylin (13:10 Huntingdon) - 6th (5/1)

• Prediction: "Ultra-consistent over fences, still in contention when unseating last time."

• Result: Disappointing 6th, beaten early in the straight.

• Analysis: The selection didn’t fire today, unable to match previous consistency. The early market strength (opened 7/2, drifted to 5/1) suggested concerns pre-race. With no obvious excuses, this goes down as a misread or an off day for the horse.

• Swinger Observation: Market drifters often suggest a lack of confidence, and Superstylin was weak in the betting pre-race.

3️⃣ Jax Junior (13:45 Huntingdon) - 3rd (6/4)

• Prediction: "Highly progressive since a wind op, dominant in last two runs."

• Result: Finished 3rd, beaten 1.5L by Califet En Vol (5/4F).

• Analysis: Ran well but not quite good enough. The form stood up, and Califet En Vol turned out to be the classier horse, which was always a possibility. The drop to third place made this a losing bet in most cases, but each-way bettors might have salvaged something.

• Swinger Observation: 1st & 2nd paid £12.80 Exacta – no major payout, but confirmed Califet En Vol was the stronger runner.

Trixie Verdict: ❌ Loss

• Jack The Savage placed but did not win.

• Superstylin flopped.

• Jax Junior was beaten by a better horse.

• Takeaway: A small return from Jack The Savage’s place, but overall no profit from this Trixie. The correct decision was avoiding heavy bets on Superstylin, given the late drift.

Trixie Bet #2: The All-Ways Patent (Higher-Risk, High-Upside Selections)

1️⃣ Tramuntana (12:40 Huntingdon) - WON (15/8F) ✅

• Prediction: "Handicap debut, step up in trip should suit."

• Result: Won comfortably.

• Analysis: Perfect call – the market confidence was right (opened 5/2, smashed into 15/8F) and Tramuntana delivered. This was the best pick of the day.

• Swinger Observation: Exacta with Jack The Savage paid £9.50 – form horses dominated.

2️⃣ Ginger Jonny (13:10 Huntingdon) - WON (4/1F) ✅

• Prediction: "Chase debut after a breathing operation, could improve significantly."

• Result: Won by 7.5L.

• Analysis: Spot on! Breathing op worked wonders, and Ginger Jonny travelled best before kicking clear. A great market pick and insight into first-time chasers improving.

• Swinger Observation: Exacta (1st & 2nd) paid £27.80, massive Trifecta at £168.30 – bettors following this logic cleaned up.

3️⃣ Junker D'allier (13:45 Huntingdon) - 4th (9/1) ❌

• Prediction: "Wind op could bring him back to form."

• Result: Disappointing 4th, beaten 18L.

• Analysis: The wind op didn’t deliver – never looked competitive against better horses.

• Swinger Observation: No returns from 4th place.

Patent Verdict: ✅ PROFIT

• Tramuntana (15/8F) WON

• Ginger Jonny (4/1) WON

• Junker D'allier (9/1) lost

• Takeaway: The two winners ensured profit on this bet, and doubles & treble landed well.

Other Key Races: Swinger & Market Moves

🏇 Race 4 - 14:20 Huntingdon (Listed Mares' Chase)

• Telepathique (11/4) WON over Brides Hill (4/7F)

• Analysis: Brides Hill (4/7F) was a false favourite, overhyped based on previous runs. Market support for Telepathique was telling, opening at 7/2 before being backed into 11/4.

• Swinger Observation: Exacta only paid £4.40, showing heavy favourite bias. The better bet was backing Telepathique outright.

🏇 Race 5 - 14:55 Huntingdon (Novices’ Handicap Hurdle)

• Imaginarium (6/1) WON over Chicago Storm (7/2)

• Analysis: The prediction was strong for Imaginarium, stating he was well-handicapped on first-time handicap mark. Market didn’t fully reflect potential improvement.

• Swinger Observation: Exacta paid £29.90, Trifecta £150.30 – clear evidence of value in the selections.

🏇 Race 6 - 15:30 Huntingdon (Mares' Handicap Hurdle)

• Cluain Aodha (12/1) WON over Miss Goldfire (3/1F)

• Analysis: The prediction flagged Cluain Aodha as a dark horse returning to hurdles, which was accurate.

• Swinger Observation: Exacta paid £51.50, massive Trifecta of £482 – a big price swing that paid off.

🏇 Race 7 - 16:05 Huntingdon (NH Flat Race, Div 1)

• Spectacularsunrise (20/1) shocks Fortune De Mer (10/11F, only 4th)

• Analysis: Fortune De Mer was overbet and disappointing. No clear market confidence in the winner pre-race.

• Swinger Observation: Huge payouts – Exacta £242.50, Trifecta £4,608.50.

🏇 Race 8 - 16:40 Huntingdon (NH Flat Race, Div 2)

• Quaviste (2/1F) WON over Wandering Ego (12/1)

• Analysis: Market confidence in Quaviste was correct. Wandering Ego ran well but just failed.

• Swinger Observation: Exacta £27.70 – fair return for favourite-combination.

Final Debrief: Learnings & Adjustments

✔ Patent was the right call today – two winners (15/8 & 4/1) provided a return. ✔ Tramuntana (15/8F) & Ginger Jonny (4/1) justified confidence, backing market trends was key. ❌ Superstylin was a letdown, highlighting why betting on drifters can be risky. ❌ Junker D'allier (9/1) failed to bounce back, showing wind ops aren't a guaranteed fix. ✔ Swinger & market move observations paid off – big Tricast/Exacta values confirmed price biases.

💡 Adjustments for Next Time

• Trust in well-backed first-time chasers (Ginger Jonny)

• Avoid weak market drifters (Superstylin)

• Identify false favourites (Brides Hill, Fortune De Mer)

• Look for bounce-back angles but only with market support (Junker D'allier failed)

Predictions

Trixie Bet #1: The Consistency Play (Lower-Risk, High Probability Selections)

Selections:

1️⃣ Jack The Savage (12:40 Huntingdon)

• Proven course form, well-handicapped, and cheekpieces may bring improvement.

• Key form: Solid second at Hereford in November, fourth over further last time.

• Confidence: ★★★★☆

2️⃣ Superstylin (13:10 Huntingdon)

• Has been ultra-consistent over fences and was still in contention when unseating last time.

• Key form: Chase debut win at Lingfield, followed by a close second before an unlucky unseat.

• Confidence: ★★★★☆

3️⃣ Jax Junior (13:45 Huntingdon)

• Highly progressive since a wind op and won impressively on his last two starts.

• Key form: Back-to-back novice hurdle wins at Doncaster & Ascot, front-running style a big asset.

• Confidence: ★★★★★

💰 Bet Type: Trixie (4 bets: 3 doubles + 1 treble)
🎯 Aim: At least two winners for a strong return.

Trixie Bet #2: The All-Ways Patent (Higher-Risk, High-Upside Selections)

Selections:

1️⃣ Tramuntana (12:40 Huntingdon)

• Handicap debut for a promising Olly Murphy horse who has been well-placed so far.

• Key form: Bumper winner, unexposed over hurdles, step up in trip should suit.

• Confidence: ★★★☆☆

2️⃣ Ginger Jonny (13:10 Huntingdon)

• Makes chase debut after a breathing operation, which could spark improvement.

• Key form: Former point winner, yard does well with first-time chasers.

• Confidence: ★★★☆☆

3️⃣ Junker Dallier (13:45 Huntingdon)

• Wind op could bring him back to form after struggling in Grade 1 company.

• Key form: Won novice hurdles at Carlisle & Bangor, outclassed at Aintree but has potential.

• Confidence: ★★★★☆

💰 Bet Type: Patent (7 bets: 3 singles, 3 doubles, 1 treble)
🎯 Aim: Even one winner recoups much of the stake, two bring profit, and three winners land a big payout.

🔥 Summary:

• Trixie #1: Safe, form-based selections with a high likelihood of success.

• Trixie #2: More speculative but offers a strong profit potential.

Which one do you prefer, or would you like to tweak any selections? 🚀

Selections:

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which 'obby Picks (dropping Hs since the dog chewed my denture) are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.
Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

Full Card

🏇 Race 1 - 12:40 Huntingdon (2m3f Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Jack The Savage
Trainer: Laura Horsfall | Jockey: Freddie Gingell
Key Form: Course winner who ran a strong race when second at Hereford in November, then backed it up with a solid fourth here over a longer trip. Looks well-handicapped.
Why: He’s shown good consistency and is proven at the course. The application of cheekpieces and tongue strap suggests he could find extra improvement, and the market confidence in previous runs is encouraging. With a drop back in trip and a workable mark, he’s primed for a big run.

2️⃣ Rocket Rufus
Trainer: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero | Jockey: Toby Wynne
Key Form: Lightly raced and stepping up in trip after qualifying runs. Yard does well with improvers, and his last run hinted at potential.
Why: This type of race is often won by unexposed handicappers, and Rocket Rufus fits the profile. He showed enough in his maiden runs to suggest improvement is coming. Any market support would be a huge signal.

3️⃣ Sangiovese
Trainer: Gary & Josh Moore | Jockey: Caoilin Quinn
Key Form: Won a novice handicap hurdle last year and finished runner-up in two subsequent starts. However, he didn’t always look the most committed.
Why: He has clear ability, and while his attitude is sometimes questionable, he remains lightly raced. Returning from a break, he could have strengthened up, and if he’s sharper mentally, he’s in with a strong chance.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Tramuntana
Trainer: Olly Murphy | Jockey: Lewis Saunders
Key Form: A promising bumper winner last season, he has been brought along quietly in maiden hurdles and looks ready to show improvement now handicapping over a longer trip.
Why: Murphy has a great record with horses switching to handicaps, and this step up in trip should suit him perfectly. If there’s market confidence, expect a bold showing.

🏇 Race 2 - 13:10 Huntingdon (2m4f Handicap Chase)

1️⃣ Superstylin
Trainer: Suzy Smith | Jockey: Sean Bowen
Key Form: Irish point winner who made an immediate impact over fences with a Lingfield win. Almost repeated that feat in November before an unlucky unseat last time.
Why: He has shown real promise in his chase career so far, with a solid second-place finish on seasonal return. Last time, he was still in contention when unseating, so that can be forgiven. The drop back to 2m4f should suit, and he looks the one to beat.

2️⃣ Cloudy Wednesday
Trainer: Caroline Fryer | Jockey: Lewis Stones
Key Form: C&D winner who returned from a layoff with an excellent second at Fakenham 18 days ago. Still well-handicapped on past form.
Why: A proven performer at this course, he ran a big race after nine months off and should strip fitter here. If he reproduces that effort, he will be a major player. The only concern is whether this race comes too soon after his reappearance.

3️⃣ Supasunrise
Trainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies | Jockey: Jamie Brace
Key Form: C&D winner, but now 12 runs since his last success. Arrives off the back of two poor efforts but has been dropping in the weights.
Why: He is now well-handicapped and wears first-time tongue strap, which could make a difference. This is a weaker race than some of his recent assignments, so an improved effort wouldn’t be a surprise.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Ginger Jonny
Trainer: Charlie Longsdon | Jockey: Jonathan Burke
Key Form: A former point-to-point winner who has struggled under Rules but now makes his chase debut after a breathing operation.
Why: Longsdon’s runners often improve for a switch to fences, and Ginger Jonny is lightly raced with scope for progress. If the breathing op has worked, he could go well at an each-way price.

🏇 Race 3 - 13:45 Huntingdon (2m3f Listed Hurdle)

1️⃣ Jax Junior
Trainer: Lucy Wadham | Jockey: Tom Cannon
Key Form: Has transformed since a wind operation, winning back-to-back novice hurdles at Doncaster and Ascot in dominant fashion. Looks ready for this step up in class.
Why: He has been visually impressive in his last two wins, making all and showing real authority. His front-running style could be a key weapon here, and with confidence sky-high, he can complete the hat-trick.

2️⃣ Califet En Vol
Trainer: Nicky Henderson | Jockey: Nico de Boinville
Key Form: Bolted up on hurdles debut at Kempton before running second to subsequent Grade 1 winner The New Lion at Newbury. Remains highly progressive.
Why: That Newbury form is looking rock-solid, and he should only improve further. His stamina is assured, and he brings real class to this contest. If the race becomes tactical, he could pounce late.

3️⃣ Secret Des Dieux
Trainer: James Owen | Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies
Key Form: Won novice hurdles at Fakenham and Hereford before finishing third on handicap debut when appearing to not quite see out the trip.
Why: The tongue strap is now applied, and the drop back to 2m3f could suit him much better. If he travels well into the race, he has a solid chance of sneaking into the placings.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Junker Dallier
Trainer: Olly Murphy | Jockey: Sean Bowen
Key Form: Won novice hurdles at Carlisle and Bangor before finding Grade 1 company too much at Aintree. Has had a wind operation since.
Why: If the wind op has worked, he could bounce back. He looked highly promising in his first two hurdles wins and could easily outperform expectations.

🏇 Race 4 - 14:20 Huntingdon (2m4f Listed Chase)

1️⃣ Brides Hill
Trainer: Gavin Cromwell | Jockey: Keith Donoghue
Key Form: High-class chaser who won this race last year and followed up with a Grade 2 success at Punchestown. Blundered at Doncaster last time but retains serious ability.
Why: She’s simply the best horse in the race on form and class. If she avoids any costly mistakes, she should outclass her rivals and confirm her dominance at this level again.

2️⃣ Telepathique
Trainer: Lucy Wadham | Jockey: Tom Cannon
Key Form: Improving chaser who has won three of her four starts this season, most recently dominating a Fakenham handicap.
Why: She’s a strong front-runner with an excellent strike rate. This is a step up in class, but she jumps well and could get an uncontested lead, making her dangerous if left alone in front.

3️⃣ La Renommee
Trainer: Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole | Jockey: Charlie Hammond
Key Form: Solid mare with Listed success at Cheltenham and recent Doncaster victory. Finished second to Brides Hill last year.
Why: She’s tough, consistent, and versatile, with the ability to perform over different trips. If the favourite falters, she’s the most likely to capitalise.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Hauturiere
Trainer: Willie Mullins | Jockey: Sean O’Keeffe
Key Form: Grade 2 winner last season but ran below expectations on seasonal return after a year off. Should strip fitter here.
Why: Mullins doesn’t send horses over for no reason. She was rusty on reappearance, but if she finds her best form, she could be a real threat at a price.

🏇 Race 5 - 14:55 Huntingdon (2m Novices' Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Chicago Storm
Trainer: Daisy Hitchins | Jockey: Mr Robbie David
Key Form: Caused a surprise last time out when landing a competitive 17-runner handicap at Wincanton (15.2f) in commanding fashion. Prior to that, won a Dundalk claimer on the Flat. Clearly improving and arrives in top form.
Why: Strong momentum coming into this, with the Wincanton win proving his ability to handle a big field and a true test of stamina. A 6lb rise isn’t excessive given the dominance of his latest win, and the form has already been franked. Could take another step forward here.

2️⃣ Dancing In Brazil
Trainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies | Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies
Key Form: Encouraging fourth at Newbury on stable debut, shaping well in a competitive contest. Has bumper-winning ability and seems to be progressing.
Why: Should strip fitter after that Newbury run, and his past bumper form suggests there's more to come. Trainer in good form, and the horse looks primed to run a big race off this mark.

3️⃣ Imaginarium
Trainer: Olly Murphy | Jockey: Sean Bowen
Key Form: Winner on hurdles debut at Perth before facing much tougher opposition at Cheltenham and Ffos Las. Now drops into handicap company for the first time.
Why: Has a touch of class from his Flat days and could be well-handicapped on this mark. The Murphy yard is in strong form, and if he settles better, he could be a major player in this.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Sun Art
Trainer: Fergal O'Brien | Jockey: J J Burke
Key Form: Solid third in a Southwell maiden hurdle and looks to be improving steadily. First-time handicap run could bring further progress.
Why: O'Brien’s runners often improve when sent handicapping, and this one has been consistent. If the race is run at a strong pace, he could be staying on well late. Worth keeping an eye on at a decent price.

🏇 Race 6 - 15:30 Huntingdon (3m1f Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Rockola
Trainer: Alan King | Jockey: Tom Cannon
Key Form: Unbeaten in handicaps, winning back-to-back races, including an authoritative success over 2m4f at this track last time. Up in trip and open to further progress.
Why: Clearly thriving and looks well-placed to complete the hat-trick. The step up in trip should suit given the way she finished last time, and Alan King's horses are in good form. A leading contender.

2️⃣ Miss Goldfire
Trainer: Harry Fry | Jockey: Miss Megan Bevan
Key Form: Best run to date when second at Wincanton (2m3f), staying on well. The longer distance today is expected to suit.
Why: She’s an unexposed mare with potential off this mark. With the Fry yard in good shape, she could improve further now tackling this stamina test.

3️⃣ Tuscan Rose
Trainer: Neil Mulholland | Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies
Key Form: Consistent performer, finishing second on both starts this season. Won over 2m7f at Taunton last term, so the step up in trip is a plus.
Why: Proven over longer distances and has been running well in similar events. A reliable type who should be in the mix again.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Cluain Aodha
Trainer: Neil King | Jockey: Jack Quinlan
Key Form: Has been running respectably over fences but returns to hurdles from a potentially favourable mark. Third at Fakenham last time out.
Why: A switch back to hurdles could be the key, and she’s shown enough to suggest she has the ability to be competitive in this sort of company. If she benefits from the return to timber, she could spring a surprise.

🏇 Race 7 - 16:05 Huntingdon (2m National Hunt Flat Race)

1️⃣ Fortune De Mer
Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton
Key Form: Impressive winner of a listed bumper at Cheltenham in November, storming clear. Prior to that, finished second at the same track on debut. Strong credentials.
Why: A clear standout based on experience and proven ability at a higher level. While the form of his Cheltenham win has taken some knocks, he looks a class above these and should justify short odds.

2️⃣ Soldier Saint
Trainer: Nicky Henderson | Jockey: Nico de Boinville
Key Form: €90,000 purchase from a strong National Hunt family. Closely related to talented French jumpers.
Why: Henderson excels with bumper debutants, and this one looks well-bred for the job. Likely to give Fortune De Mer something to think about.

3️⃣ Corra Bheinn
Trainer: Ben Pauling | Jockey: Ben Jones
Key Form: Milan gelding related to useful jumper Crosshill. Dam was a bumper winner.
Why: Ben Pauling’s horses tend to improve for a run, but this one’s pedigree suggests he could make an immediate impact. Market support would be significant.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Island Bridge
Trainer: Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls | Jockey: Thomas Bellamy
Key Form: £75,000 purchase who won his second start in Irish points last October.
Why: Has the benefit of experience from point-to-points and comes from a yard with a solid bumper record. If the race gets tactical, his past experience could be an advantage.

🏇 Race 8 - 16:40 Huntingdon (2m National Hunt Flat Race)

1️⃣ Nathan's Run
Trainer: Fergal O'Brien | Jockey: J J Burke
Key Form: Strong second at Uttoxeter on debut, staying on well despite looking green. That experience should bring him on significantly.
Why: Fergal O'Brien has a great record with bumper horses, and this one shaped like a real improver first time out. With a sharper performance expected, he should be hard to beat.

2️⃣ Quaviste
Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton
Key Form: €90,000 purchase, bred for the job as a half-brother to smart hurdler Colonel Mustard.
Why: The Skelton team does well with bumper runners, and this one has the pedigree to make an impact on debut. The market support suggests he's fancied.

3️⃣ Draco Malfoy
Trainer: Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls | Jockey: Thomas Bellamy
Key Form: Strong third in a Huntingdon bumper last month, previously a €140,000 point-to-point winner.
Why: Should have improved for his last run, and his experience could prove valuable in a race full of newcomers. Stamina should be his strength.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Wandering Ego
Trainer: Olly Murphy | Jockey: S Bowen
Key Form: Promising third on Rules debut at Newbury, finishing behind a potentially smart type.
Why: Likely to progress from that run and could surprise at decent odds if he takes another step forward. Worth consideration for an each-way play.