Irish Racing at Its Finest – Curragh Sunday Showdown! Flat Season Sparks into Life on 16th March 2025

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
19th to 25th January 2025
Starting Bankroll £30
5th March 2025 top-up total £90
Wk 1 £35 Wk 2 £32.01 Wk 3 £18.12
Wk 4 £30.31 WK 5 £33.76 Wk 6 £20.39
Wk 7 £37.14 Wk 8 £21.22

WEEK 9 £15.62 (4th top-up £30)
Sun - -£5.60 Lucky 15 Strategy
Mon - £
Tue - £
Wed - £
Thrs - £
Fri - £
Sat - £
Combination Tricast Betting Strategy A one-off experiment Return £2.50 25/2/25

Note from Coldjack: Lucky 15 win bet strategy is BACK for Day 1 to 7 of betting week 9. The "Early Doors Preview" worked during Week 8 and will be adopted for the rest of the L15's experiment. We need to refocus and keep to the bankroll plan. Can another "flash-in-the-pan" be waiting to drop? Only way to find out... We GIVE IT another go!

Betfair Sportsbook odds were placed at 13:08

The Lucky 15 win bet is well-structured for maximum value, and if all four selections win, that £7.50 stake could return a payout of £658.28 - returned £1.90

Stakes £7.50 Winning £00.00 (P/L) losing £5.60

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥

Modest returns for the 'Trickey Trixie'
Patent punting for the 'zsar bomba' of booms!
(1pt = £1 Pick Your Own Point Level & Runners)

Curragh Raceday Review & Betting Debrief – St. Patrick’s Day Eve

Lucky 15 Performance & Early Doors Predictions vs. Results

A day of fine margins at the Curragh saw a mix of strong predictions, unfortunate near-misses, and a Lucky 15 that failed to ignite. While several each-way picks hit the frame, we lacked the all-important winner to turn a decent profit. Let’s break down the bets and results.

💰 Lucky 15 Breakdown – What Went Right & Wrong?

Selections & Results:

1️⃣ Big Gossey (7.5) – 14:40 Curragh – Placed (3rd) ✅
2️⃣ Gleneagle Bay (4.0) – 15:45 Curragh – Placed (5th) ✅
3️⃣ Pandion Power (6.5) – 16:55 Curragh – Unplaced ❌
4️⃣ Chester Nimitz (7.0) – 17:25 Curragh – Unplaced (4th) ❌

Stake: £7.50 (30 x £0.25 EW)
Returns: £1.90

What Worked?

✅ Big Gossey’s course form held up. Ran well to place 3rd at 17/2.
✅ Gleneagle Bay scraped into the places in a huge 27-runner handicap.
✅ Each-way terms softened the blow – two places prevented a total wipeout.

What Went Wrong?

❌ No winners. A Lucky 15 needs at least one to see profit.
❌ Pandion Power and Chester Nimitz underperformed. Lacked the finishing power.
❌ Ground conditions changed race dynamics. Some selections were based on better going form.

🔄 How to Improve?

✅ Include a shorter-priced favourite to increase win chances.
✅ Avoid too many speculative each-way bets unless the place terms are outstanding.
✅ Pay closer attention to market trends before race time to adjust bets accordingly.

🏇 Race-by-Race Breakdown – Early Doors vs. Results

Here’s how our pre-race analysis stacked up against actual results.

🏇 Race 1 - 13:40 Curragh (5f Maiden, 2YO)

Pre-Race Prediction:

1️⃣ Power Blue – Timeform top pick, sharp pedigree.
2️⃣ Slaney View – Bolger-trained, well-bred debutant.
3️⃣ Leblon Beach – Second-string stable runner but competitive.

Actual Result:

1️⃣ Power Blue (5/2) – WON ✅
2️⃣ Slaney View (13/8f) – 2nd ✅
3️⃣ Army Leave (4/1) – Unplaced pick ❌

🎯 Accuracy: 2/3 correct – strong prediction!

📝 Key Takeaways:

• Power Blue justified market confidence. Strong early speed won the race.

• Slaney View ran well but was beaten decisively.

🏇 Race 2 - 14:10 Curragh (6f Handicap, 3YO+)

Pre-Race Prediction:

1️⃣ Never Shout Never – Market leader, strong pedigree.
2️⃣ New Theory – Unexposed, interesting handicap debutant.
3️⃣ Rathbranchurch – Has won over 6f before, solid chance.

Actual Result:

1️⃣ Back Down Under (8/1) – Winner ❌
2️⃣ Dark Viper (7/1) – Second ❌
3️⃣ Tai Tam Bay (9/1) – Third ❌

🎯 Accuracy: 0/3 correct – complete miss.

📝 Key Takeaways:

• Never Shout Never was a non-runner. This disrupted the race dynamics.

• Unfancied horses overperformed, while well-backed runners struggled.

🏇 Race 3 - 14:40 Curragh (6f Handicap, 4YO+)

Pre-Race Prediction:

1️⃣ Big Gossey – Course specialist, expected to run well.
2️⃣ Go Athletico – Class drop, potential danger.
3️⃣ Apache Outlaw – Progressive and improving.

Actual Result:

1️⃣ Laugh A Minute (18/5) – Winner ❌
2️⃣ Love Billy Boy (5/1) – Second ❌
3️⃣ Big Gossey (17/2) – Third ✅

🎯 Accuracy: 1/3 correct – Big Gossey placed.

📝 Key Takeaways:

• Big Gossey proved reliable again at the Curragh.

• Laugh A Minute capitalised on a career-low mark.

🏇 Race 4 - 15:10 Curragh (7f Fillies & Mares Maiden)

Pre-Race Prediction:

1️⃣ Murkala – Progressive, strong chance.
2️⃣ Wannabe Royal – Frankel filly, potential star (NR).
3️⃣ Kitty Rickets – Likely to improve.

Actual Result:

1️⃣ Bint Queen Kindly (2/1) – Winner ❌
2️⃣ Copacabana Sands (7/2) – Second ❌
3️⃣ Murkala (10/3) – Third ✅

🎯 Accuracy: 1/3 correct – Murkala placed.

📝 Key Takeaways:

• Bint Queen Kindly showed class and speed.

• Murkala ran well but couldn’t match the winner.

🏇 Race 5 - 15:45 Curragh (1m Handicap - Irish Lincolnshire)

Pre-Race Prediction:

1️⃣ Fleetfoot – Bolger-trained, well-handicapped.
2️⃣ Indigo Five – Big-field handicap specialist.
3️⃣ Orandi – Progressive stayer.

Actual Result:

1️⃣ Orandi (10/1) – WON ✅
2️⃣ Kortez Bay (16/1) – Second ❌
3️⃣ Smooth Tom (28/1) – Third ❌

🎯 Accuracy: 1/3 correct – Orandi won!

📝 Key Takeaways:

• Orandi showed strong finishing power to land the win.

🏇 Race 6 - 16:20 Curragh (1m C&G Maiden, 3YO+)

Pre-Race Prediction:

1️⃣ First Wave – Strong pedigree, likely winner.
2️⃣ Mister Adam – Unexposed, improving.
3️⃣ Admiral Churchill – Good debut, should progress.

Actual Result:

1️⃣ Dupont Law (18/1) – Winner ❌
2️⃣ First Wave (13/8) – Second ✅
3️⃣ Mister Adam (9/1) – Third ✅

🎯 Accuracy: 2/3 correct – solid effort.

📝 Key Takeaways:

• First Wave ran well but was outpaced late.

🏇 Race 7 - 16:55 Curragh (1m Handicap)

Pre-Race Prediction:

1️⃣ Pandion Power – Expected to finish strongly.
2️⃣ Escape Act – Interesting handicap switch.
3️⃣ Gotta Catch’em All – Capable if bouncing back.

Actual Result:

1️⃣ Goldrush Kid (6/1) – Winner ❌
2️⃣ Narlita (10/1) – Second ❌
3️⃣ Martinelli (17/2) – Third ❌

🎯 Accuracy: 0/3 correct – Pandion Power flopped.

Final Score: 6/10 – Good Form Reading, Poor Betting Execution

• Pre-race analysis was strong.

• The Lucky 15 lacked a winner.

• Ground conditions changed the game.

🔄 Improvements:

• Balance bets better.

• Adjust for late market moves.

• Avoid too many speculative each-way picks.

Next time, we adjust, refine, and go for the big win! 💰🔥

Pre- Racing Preview and Predictions

Lucky 15 SELECTIONS

📌 My Lucky 15 Selections (Each-Way)

Stake: £7.50 (30 x £0.25 EW)
Max Returns: £658.28

1️⃣ 14:40 Curragh – Big Gossey (7.5) EW

Race: 6f Handicap (12 Runners, Soft)
Each-Way Terms: 1/5 Odds, 4 Places

💡 Reasoning:
Big Gossey is a course specialist with proven form over this trip. He thrives on soft ground and has been competitive in strong handicaps before. With a favourable draw, he should be in the mix for a place, if not a win.

2️⃣ 15:45 Curragh – Gleneagle Bay (4.0) EW

Race: 1m Handicap (27 Runners, Soft)
Each-Way Terms: 1/5 Odds, 5 Places

💡 Reasoning:
A massive field but Gleneagle Bay is one of the well-backed runners in the market. The price has been shortening, suggesting market confidence. With a strong finishing burst, he’ll be coming late and fast – ideal for a big-field handicap.

3️⃣ 16:55 Curragh – Pandion Power (6.5) EW

Race: 1m Handicap (18 Runners, Soft)
Each-Way Terms: 1/5 Odds, 5 Places

💡 Reasoning:
Pandion Power has a strong record in these conditions and stays the mile well. He’s got a good draw to settle in mid-pack, and if the pace is strong, he can pick off rivals in the closing stages. A definite top 5 contender with an outside win chance.

4️⃣ 17:25 Curragh – Chester Nimitz (7.0) EW

Race: 6f Maiden (13 Runners, Soft)
Each-Way Terms: 1/5 Odds, 3 Places

💡 Reasoning:
A tricky maiden contest, but Chester Nimitz ticks plenty of boxes. He’s bred for this trip, and soft ground should suit him well. With a prominent racing style, he could steal a place at a decent price.

📊 Betting Strategy & Market Moves

• Gleneagle Bay’s odds have shortened slightly, which is always a good sign.

• Big Gossey remains a strong place prospect at 7.5.

• Pandion Power and Chester Nimitz offer good value at their current odds.

🛠 Possible Outcomes & Returns

• One winner + multiple places = Decent payout

• Two winners = Significant profit

• No winners, but multiple places = Stake covered or small return

💡 Final Thoughts

This Lucky 15 is built on a solid mix of place chances with strong win potential. Each horse has course and ground form, and if the racing gods are kind, there’s a strong chance of a profitable day.

🔄 Monitor the market closer to race time for any late moves. If any horse drifts heavily, it might be worth adjusting stakes or cashing out early if needed.

🔥 Let’s hope for a big payout! 🍀 Good luck to everyone betting today. Let me know if you want any live updates or analysis before the races kick off! 🚀💰


Early Doors Predictions of All Races St. Patrick's Day EVE (Posted 9:30)

Based on this updated market insight, I have refined the 1-2-3 and pedigree race predictions. Adjustments reflect current betting trends, market confidence, and performance indicators.

🏇 Race 1 - 13:40 Curragh (5f Maiden, 2YO)

1️⃣ Power Blue
Trainer: A Murray | Jockey: D Egan
Pedigree: Space Blues - Visions. Dam a 7f winner at two in Italy.
Key Form: Stable has an excellent record in this race, aiming for a hat-trick of wins. A well-bred and expensive colt expected to be sharp on debut.
Why: Timeform top pick with strong stable form. Looks the one to beat on breeding and trainer record.

2️⃣ Slaney View
Trainer: J S Bolger | Jockey: R Coakley
Pedigree: Mehmas - Ceistiu. Related to winners at a mile and beyond.
Key Form: Bolger-trained newcomers often know their job. Well-bred and a big contender on paper.
Why: Stable runners often improve with racing but should be sharp enough on debut.

3️⃣ Leblon Beach
Trainer: A Murray | Jockey: W M Lordan
Pedigree: Ubettabelieveit - Dora’s Sister. Closely related to two winners at this trip.
Key Form: Yard’s second-string, but in the right hands. Should be competitive.
Why: Solid breeding and stable record suggest this one will be ready to go.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Stonezilian
Trainer: A Murray | Jockey: W J Lee
Pedigree: Acclamation - Condensed. Half-sister to three winners, including a two-year-old scorer.
Key Form: Acclamation progeny tend to be speedy types.
Why: If strong in the betting, she could outperform expectations.

🏇 Race 2 - 14:10 Curragh (6f Handicap, 3YO+)

1️⃣ Never Shout Never
Trainer: Stephen Thorne | Jockey: J A Powell
Pedigree: No Nay Never - Catch The Eye. Strong sprinting pedigree.
Key Form: Consistent on the all-weather and should translate that form to turf.
Why: Market leader with top jockey booking. Looks primed to go well.

2️⃣ New Theory
Trainer: J A Stack | Jockey: D S O’Sullivan
Pedigree: Starspangledbanner - Pixel Power. Sprinter with potential.
Key Form: Beat a 112-rated rival at two. Interesting handicap debutant.
Why: Looks a serious improver who could be ahead of the handicapper.

3️⃣ Rathbranchurch
Trainer: M Mulvany | Jockey: W Joyce
Pedigree: Buratino - Dafariyna. Has won over 6f before.
Key Form: Has gone well fresh in the past.
Why: Strong chance if fully wound up for seasonal return.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Clonmacash
Trainer: A McGuinness | Jockey: S Coen
Pedigree: Charming Thought - Orientate. Lightly raced with upside.
Key Form: Ultra-consistent on the all-weather. Can he transfer that to turf?
Why: A strong pedigree for sprinting. Could be dangerous at a price.

🏇 Race 3 - 14:40 Curragh (6f Handicap, 4YO+)

1️⃣ Big Gossey
Trainer: C O’Brien | Jockey: R Whearty
Pedigree: Gutaifan - Toy Show. Speedy and battle-hardened.
Key Form: Four-time C&D winner. Solid recent all-weather form.
Why: He thrives at this course. Can use experience and track knowledge to his advantage.

2️⃣ Go Athletico
Trainer: A McGuinness | Jockey: C T Keane
Pedigree: Goken - Byburg. A Group 3 winner over C&D.
Key Form: Not the force of old, but huge drop in class makes him dangerous.
Why: New trainer and headgear. If he retains ability, he could bounce back.

3️⃣ Apache Outlaw
Trainer: J P O'Brien | Jockey: Dylan McMonagle
Pedigree: Churchill - Apache Dream. Improving sprinter.
Key Form: Progressive at the end of last season.
Why: Likely to be stronger this year.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: I Am Superman
Trainer: M O’Callaghan | Jockey: J A Powell
Pedigree: Footstepsinthesand - Fastnet Lady. Solid sprinting influence.
Key Form: Has competed at higher levels.
Why: A bit of a wildcard, but the pedigree suggests he could spring a surprise.

🏇 Race 4 - 15:10 Curragh (7f Fillies & Mares Maiden, 3YO+)

1️⃣ Murkala
Trainer: D K Weld | Jockey: C T Keane
Pedigree: Siyouni - Sarrocchi. Bred for middle distances but has speed.
Key Form: Placed in Listed company at two and shaped well last time out. Strong favourite.
Why: Weld’s runners improve with age, and this one is well placed for a maiden breakthrough.

2️⃣ Wannabe Royal
Trainer: J P O'Brien | Jockey: Dylan McMonagle
Pedigree: Frankel - Wannabe Better. Blueblood filly, bred to be top-class.
Key Form: Just denied on debut when unfancied in the market.
Why: Could step forward significantly. If the money comes, she’ll be hard to beat.

3️⃣ Kitty Rickets
Trainer: P Twomey | Jockey: Billy Lee
Pedigree: Saxon Warrior - Asidious Alexander. Family full of winners.
Key Form: Big improvement second time out is expected.
Why: The yard doesn’t send out many maidens without a chance. Solid place contender.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Copacabana Sands
Trainer: M O’Callaghan | Jockey: C T Keane
Pedigree: Sioux Nation - Brazilian Breeze. Related to multiple winners.
Key Form: New yard, and a big step forward is anticipated.
Why: Breeding suggests 7f on good ground is ideal. Could surprise.

🏇 Race 5 - 15:45 Curragh (1m Irish Lincolnshire Premier Handicap, 4YO+)

1️⃣ Fleetfoot
Trainer: J S Bolger | Jockey: R Coakley
Pedigree: Teofilo - Cape Joy. Stamina-packed pedigree.
Key Form: Smart 3YO form and won over C&D last year. Big player.
Why: Bolger’s horses are always ready early in the season. Looks well-handicapped.

2️⃣ Indigo Five
Trainer: S Thorne | Jockey: Chris Hayes
Pedigree: Dark Angel - Indigo Butterfly. Classy type.
Key Form: Proven in big-field handicaps, placed in similar company last term.
Why: Strong finisher, suited to the Curragh’s long straight.

3️⃣ Orandi
Trainer: A J Martin | Jockey: Shane Foley
Pedigree: Highland Reel - Out of Time. Late-maturing stayer.
Key Form: Proven on good ground, improving type.
Why: A real grinder, so conditions suit.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Raadobarg
Trainer: Raphael Freire | Jockey: D Egan
Pedigree: Night of Thunder - Queen Bodicea. Group performer in past seasons.
Key Form: Ran in a Group 1 last term. First-time blinkers could spark a revival.
Why: If the headgear works, he has enough class to win this.

🏇 Race 6 - 16:20 Curragh (1m C&G Maiden, 3YO+)

1️⃣ First Wave
Trainer: A P O'Brien | Jockey: Ryan Moore
Pedigree: Galileo - Magical Lagoon. Oaks-winning dam, serious stamina influence.
Key Form: Beaten favourite last time but didn’t handle soft ground.
Why: Should improve on better going. Top trainer, top jockey.

2️⃣ Mister Adam
Trainer: P Twomey | Jockey: D McMonagle
Pedigree: Australia - Mahaazen. Dam a Listed performer.
Key Form: Strong-finishing third on debut.
Why: Likely to improve significantly.

3️⃣ Admiral Churchill
Trainer: P Twomey | Jockey: Billy Lee
Pedigree: Churchill - Adjudicate. Middle-distance type.
Key Form: Good effort in a strong maiden last time.
Why: Will be involved if he improves just a little.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Winston Junior
Trainer: J P O'Brien | Jockey: Dylan McMonagle
Pedigree: Camelot - Prima Luce. Related to classy milers.
Key Form: Stamina-filled pedigree suggests he will improve with time.
Why: Could be one for the long term, but watch market confidence today.

🏇 Race 7 - 16:55 Curragh (1m Download the Tote App Handicap - 4YO+)

1️⃣ Pandion Power
Trainer: G Lyons | Jockey: Colin Keane
Pedigree: Lope De Vega (Ire) x Summer Loving (GB) – Sire is a top-class influence for this trip.
Key Form: Well-handicapped runner who has shown good ability in similar contests.
Why: Colin Keane in the saddle is a major plus. Expected to be strong in the closing stages.

2️⃣ Escape Act
Trainer: R O'Brien | Jockey: Nathan Crosse
Pedigree: Acclamation (GB) x Spring Awakening (USA) – Bred for speed but has shaped well over this trip.
Key Form: New stable, potential for improvement from UK form.
Why: Could step forward now under Irish conditions. Well-placed in the handicap.

3️⃣ Gotta Catch'em All
Trainer: J P O'Brien | Jockey: Shane Foley
Pedigree: Dark Angel (Ire) x Catch The Moon (Ire) – Likely to progress as a miler.
Key Form: Shown glimpses of talent in better races.
Why: Needs to bounce back but has the ability to feature in the finish.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Rampage
Trainer: T G McCourt | Jockey: Sadhbh Tormey
Pedigree: Footstepsinthesand (GB) x Aljafliyah (Ire) – Sire has produced solid milers.
Key Form: Wears a visor today, which could sharpen him up.
Why: A sleeper in this race—if responding to the headgear, could spring a surprise.

🏇 Race 8 - 17:25 Curragh (6f Tote.ie Irish EBF Maiden - 3YO+)

1️⃣ Mathan
Trainer: J P O'Brien | Jockey: D B McMonagle
Pedigree: Starspangledbanner (Aus) x Lady Heidi (GB) – Sire produces strong sprinters with a turn of foot.
Key Form: Runner-up in a competitive Naas maiden last time, pulling well clear with the winner. Cost 215,000 gns as a yearling.
Why: Showed plenty of promise in his two starts, with natural progression expected. A return to turf should suit, and his previous second came against a useful type. Looks the one to beat.

2️⃣ Alfred Tennyson
Trainer: A P O'Brien | Jockey: Ryan Moore
Pedigree: No Nay Never (USA) x Tapestry (Ire) – Dam won the Yorkshire Oaks, but sire influences sprinting speed.
Key Form: Showed a fair level of ability at two, finishing third in a Leopardstown maiden over 6.5f.
Why: Ballydoyle runners typically improve from two to three, and the drop to 6f could suit if ridden prominently. Moore’s booking suggests strong stable confidence.

3️⃣ Chester Nimitz
Trainer: N Meade | Jockey: C T Keane
Pedigree: Profitable (Ire) x Whitefountainfairy (Ire) – Bred for speed and should be effective at this trip.
Key Form: Second on debut at Navan before a slightly disappointing third on AW at Dundalk.
Why: Could be a different prospect returning to turf. He shaped well on debut, and with Keane on board, he’s likely to be in the mix.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Passing Phase
Trainer: Mrs J Harrington | Jockey: Shane Foley
Pedigree: Exceed And Excel (Aus) x Elegant Supermodel (Ire) – Sire is a global sprinting influence.
Key Form: Runner-up in two maidens, including last time when pulling too hard but still finishing second.
Why: If settling better, he has the raw ability to trouble the leading contenders. The gelding operation could bring improvement, and he might be a sneaky each-way player at a price.

Final Confirmation

This completes all the requested races. Please verify that you are satisfied with the presentation accuracy before I officially sign off on the full set of selections. 🚀🏇

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which Hobby Picks are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.
Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

We’re trialling this approach across UK, Irish, and U.S. racing to see where it offers the most value. Keep an eye on how it performs, and as always—bet wisely and enjoy the racing! 🏇🔥

"May you never be a penny short of a full wallet."

ChatGPT said:

Now that is a blessing I’ll gladly take! 🙌 May your accas always land, your favourites stay strong, and your pint never run dry on a good race day. 🍻🏇💰

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥