Kempton - 7th February 2025

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
Starting Bankroll £30
Top Ups to Bankroll £00.00
19th to 25th January 2025
Wk 1 - £35 - Wk 2 - £32.01

Week 3 - £18.79
Sun - £03.56
Mon - -£0.64
Tue - -£7.00
Wed - -£2.22
Thrs - £0.01
Fri - -£7.50
Sat - -£0.00

Note from Coldjack: Yesterday's stake was fully recovered, with winnings of £0. 1 falling short of the 'zsar bomba' of booms!. We were close but not a bad result, at least we got a payout. we go again.
Trixie @4 Lines
High Fibre | Moulins Clermont | Flegmatik
Stake £4.00(4 x £1.00)
Returns £46.20 Returns NONE

(Each Way) Patent @14 Lines
Jus De Citron | Thunderclap | Edward Sexton
Stake £3.50(14 x £0.25)
Returns £47.79 Returns NONE

Stakes £7.50 Winning £0.00 losing £7.50
patent punting for the 'zsar bomba' of booms!

Debrief & Critique: Trixie, Patent, and Swinger Observations – Kempton Park (7th Feb 2025)

Trixie Bet #1: The Consistency Play (Lower-Risk, High Probability Selections)

1️⃣ High Fibre (13:20 Kempton Park) - 3rd (6/5 Fav)

• Prediction: "Fairly useful on the Flat, has shaped well in maiden hurdles, likely would have won last time but for a late mistake."

• Result: Finished 3rd, beaten 3 lengths by Andashan.

• Analysis: Slightly disappointing. Market confidence was strong, but he didn’t find as much as expected in the closing stages. He travelled well but lacked a finishing kick. The drift from 5/6 to 6/5 suggested slight caution.

• Swinger Observation: Andashan & High Fibre (1-3) paid £45.80 Exacta and £398.40 Trifecta—not ideal for a place finish, but a straight forecast bet would have been a disaster.

2️⃣ Moulins Clermont (14:20 Kempton Park) - 3rd (9/2)

• Prediction: "Massive improvement last time when runner-up at Newbury, looks well-treated off the same mark."

• Result: Finished 3rd, beaten 4.5 lengths by Ideal Des Bordes.

• Analysis: Ran well but not quite good enough. Ideal Des Bordes justified 2/1 favouritism, and Moulins Clermont was always thereabouts but never really looking like winning. This was a fair performance but not enough to justify heavy backing.

• Swinger Observation: Exacta & Trifecta didn’t land due to Moulins Clermont finishing 3rd—value was in each-way or place betting rather than straight win bets.

3️⃣ Flegmatik (15:25 Kempton Park) - 3rd (10/3 Fav)

• Prediction: "Course specialist, returned to form with a solid third at Ascot, blinkers likely to sharpen him up."

• Result: Finished 3rd, beaten by El Rio & Triple Trade.

• Analysis: Yet another placed effort but no win. This was a decent showing, but the winner was too strong. Flegmatik was well supported in the market but never really looked like taking the win.

• Swinger Observation: Flegmatik finishing third meant the Trixie failed, but Swingers with El Rio & Triple Trade paid £46.50.

Trixie Verdict: ❌ Loss

• All three selections placed but none won—frustrating but not a total wipeout.

• Each-way backers recouped some losses.

• Swinger bets on High Fibre & Moulins Clermont offered small payouts.

Trixie Bet #2: The All-Ways Patent (Higher-Risk, High-Upside Selections)

1️⃣ Jus De Citron (13:50 Kempton Park) - 3rd (11/2)

• Prediction: "Won on hurdles debut at Doncaster, staying on strongly to assert late."

• Result: Finished 3rd, beaten by Slipway & J J Moon.

• Analysis: Solid effort but found two too strong. Jus De Citron ran respectably but lacked a final kick. Given his profile, he remains a horse to follow in novice events.

• Swinger Observation: The J J Moon & Jus De Citron combination in a Swinger would have given a fair return.

2️⃣ Thunderclap (14:50 Kempton Park) - 8th (10/1)

• Prediction: "Won this race last season, can make the frame again."

• Result: Finished 8th, beaten by Star Of Affinity.

• Analysis: This was poor. The market weakness pre-race (opened 6/1, drifted to 10/1) was a red flag. The selection never really landed a blow and was beaten early in the straight.

• Swinger Observation: None—Thunderclap was never competitive.

3️⃣ Edward Sexton (16:33 Kempton Park) - 3rd (5/2)

• Prediction: "Highly promising debut, finished just behind a stablemate with pointing experience."

• Result: Finished 3rd, beaten by Bold Action & Old Park Star.

• Analysis: A place again, but no win. Edward Sexton ran respectably but didn’t look like winning. A consistent horse to follow, but today wasn’t his day.

• Swinger Observation: The Bold Action & Old Park Star forecast was the profitable play.

Patent Verdict: ❌ Loss

• All three selections placed but none won—same story as the Trixie.

• Each-way backers salvaged some returns.

• The key takeaway: Selections were competitive but lacked the final touch.

Other Key Races: Swinger & Market Moves

🏇 Race 1 - 12:50 Kempton (2m Handicap Hurdle)

• Epinephrine (7/1) WON over Sweet Caryline (11/2).

• Analysis: The Nicholls horse Jena D’oudairies was the big disappointment—beaten despite strong market confidence.

• Swinger Observation: Exacta paid £51.50, huge Trifecta of £482.00—backing Sweet Caryline & Epinephrine together would have been the smart play.

🏇 Race 2 - 13:20 Kempton (Maiden Hurdle)

• Andashan (5/1) WON over Absolutely Doyen (10/3).

• Analysis: The market got this wrong—High Fibre (6/5 Fav) only managed third.

• Swinger Observation: Exacta paid £45.80, Trifecta £398.40—big return for ignoring the short-priced favourite.

🏇 Race 5 - 14:50 Kempton (Handicap Hurdle)

• Star Of Affinity (4/1) WON over The Long Point (6/1).

• Analysis: Thunderclap was never a factor.

• Swinger Observation: Exacta paid £29.90, Trifecta £150.30—highlighting the value in the top two.

🏇 Race 7 - 15:58 Kempton (NH Flat Race, Div 1)

• Frontier Prince (9/4 Fav) WON over Kadastral (4/1).

• Analysis: Market confidence in the favourite was justified.

• Swinger Observation: Exacta £27.70, small but solid payout.

🏇 Race 8 - 16:33 Kempton (NH Flat Race, Div 2)

• Bold Action (5/1) WON over Old Park Star (7/2).

• Analysis: Edward Sexton (5/2 Fav) only managed 3rd.

• Swinger Observation: Exacta paid £8.30, Trifecta £75.20—smaller payouts in a more predictable race.

Final Debrief: Learnings & Adjustments

✔ Selections were competitive but didn’t land the wins—each-way bettors were better off.
✔ Patent and Trixie both suffered from “nearly but not quite” performances—frustrating, but not disastrous.
✔ Swinger & Exacta bets were where the real money was made.
❌ Market confidence in Thunderclap & High Fibre was misplaced—next time, watch late betting trends closely.
✔ Following strong-finishing horses (like Andashan & Epinephrine) proved profitable.

💡 Adjustments for Next Time

• Place more emphasis on Swinger & Exacta betting, as they delivered the biggest returns today.

• Avoid overly strong confidence in favourites when the market shows late drift.

• Recognise that placed horses (like High Fibre & Edward Sexton) remain future betting angles but require better odds.

• Trixie & Patent strategies need tweaking—selections were consistent but lacked outright winners.

🚀 Would you like a profit/loss breakdown based on these bets? Let me know, and I can calculate the actual returns! 🚀

Based on the latest available data for the races at Kempton Park on Friday, 7th February 2025, here are the selections for two bet types:

Trixie Bet #1: The Consistency Play

Focus on consistent performers with proven track records, strong recent form, and effective jockey-trainer partnerships.

Selections:

1. High Fibre (13:20 Kempton Park – Racing TV Maiden Hurdle)

   • Trainer: Harry Fry

   • Jockey: Bryan Carver

   • Key Factors: Fairly useful on the Flat (stays 1½m) and has shaped well in maiden hurdles at Wincanton and Taunton. Likely would have won last time but for losing momentum at the last.

   • Recent Form: Second at Taunton on 8th January 2025, beaten by 1.75 lengths over 16.5f on soft ground.

   • Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆

2. Moulins Clermont (14:20 Kempton Park – TrustATrader.com Novices' Handicap Chase)

   • Trainer: Gary Moore

   • Jockey: Caoilin Quinn

   • Key Factors: Massive improvement on second chase start when runner-up at Newbury to a subsequent winner. Looks well-treated off the same mark.

   • Recent Form: Second at Newbury on 16th January 2025, over 2m6.5f on soft ground.

   • Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆

3. Flegmatik (15:25 Kempton Park – TrustATrader.com Handicap Chase)

   • Trainer: Dan Skelton

   • Jockey: Harry Skelton

   • Key Factors: This talented chaser returned to form when a good third in a higher grade at Ascot last time and, with the fitting of blinkers likely to sharpen him up, he can make the most of this drop in grade.

   • Recent Form: Third at Ascot on 18th January 2025, over 2m5f on soft ground.

   • Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆

Bet Type: Trixie (4 bets: 3 doubles + 1 treble)

Aim for at least two winners for a strong return.

Trixie Bet #2: The All-Ways Patent (Higher-Risk Play)

Target higher odds selections with strong potential but slight question marks.

Selections:

1. Jus De Citron (13:50 Kempton Park – Racing TV Novices' Hurdle)

   • Trainer: Harry Derham

   • Jockey: Paul O'Brien

   • Key Factors: Won on hurdles debut at Doncaster, staying on strongly to assert late.

   • Recent Form: First at Doncaster on 10th January 2025, over 2m3.5f on soft ground.

   • Confidence Rating: ★★★☆☆

2. Thunderclap (14:50 Kempton Park – TrustATrader.com Handicap Hurdle)

   • Trainer: Hughie Morrison

   • Jockey: Tom O'Brien

   • Key Factors: He won this race last season and can make the frame again from a 4lb higher mark.

   • Recent Form: First in the same race last year; recent form to be confirmed.

   • Confidence Rating: ★★★☆☆

3. Edward Sexton (16:33 Kempton Park – Racing TV Open Maiden NH Flat Race)

   • Trainer: Nicky Henderson

   • Jockey: Mr D H Dunsdon

   • Key Factors: Made a highly promising debut when a close second at Sandown, finishing just behind a stablemate with pointing experience.

   • Recent Form: Second at Sandown on 7th January 2025, over 2m on soft ground.

   • Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆

Bet Type: Patent (7 bets: 3 singles, 3 doubles, 1 treble)

Even one winner covers much of the stake, two winners bring profit, and all three winners yield an excellent return.

Summary:

• Trixie #1: Lower-risk, high-probability selections focusing on consistent performers.

• Trixie #2: Higher-risk plays with good upside potential, targeting selections with strong potential but slight question marks.

Please note that horse racing outcomes are inherently unpredictable. While these selections are based on available data and analysis, there are no guarantees of success. Always gamble responsibly.

Selections:

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which 'obby Picks (dropping Hs since the dog chewed my denture) are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.
Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

Full Card

🏇 Race 1 - 12:50 Kempton (2m Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Win Selection: Jena D’oudairies

Trainer: Paul Nicholls | Jockey: Freddie Gingell
Key Form: Bumper winner last spring and has shown fair form when placed in mares' maiden/novice hurdles. A quick switch to handicaps signals intent from the yard.
Why: A well-bred type for a powerful stable, she has been knocking on the door and now makes a potentially significant move into handicap company. With the market showing confidence (currently 2.92 on the exchange), she looks primed to strike. Nicholls’ runners often improve when sent into handicaps, and this could be her moment.

2️⃣ 2nd Place Prediction: Plantaroma

Trainer: — | Jockey: James Turner
Key Form: Progressive profile, fair form in bumpers, and a decent fourth on handicap debut over 2m at Newbury. Has a tongue strap added for the first time.
Why: A lightly-raced sort with scope for improvement. The addition of a tongue strap could eke out further progress, and her solid previous efforts suggest she can handle the tempo of a competitive handicap. Exchange odds hovering around 4.2-4.5 indicate steady support.

3️⃣ 3rd Place Prediction: Epinephrine

Trainer: — | Jockey: Ned Fox
Key Form: Showed promise with a runner-up finish on hurdle debut at Auteuil but has been slightly below that level in Britain. Expected to take a step forward now switching to handicaps.
Why: French form often translates well over time, and this horse may just be finding her feet in the UK. The 9.2-9.4 odds suggest she is slightly underestimated but could well figure prominently.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Endless Escape

Trainer: — | Jockey: Joe Anderson
Key Form: Four-time hurdle winner but has struggled this season. Given a chance by the handicapper and first-time blinkers could reignite past form.
Why: A proven winner with back class, and significant headgear changes can sometimes produce a major turnaround. She has traded at 10% or less of BSP on two of her last five starts, which indicates she often runs better than her odds suggest. A value play at 8.6-9.8 in the market.

🏇 Race 2 - 13:20 Kempton (2m Maiden Hurdle)

1️⃣ Win Selection: High Fibre

Trainer: — | Jockey: Bryan Carver
Key Form: Fairly useful Flat performer (stays 1½m) who has shaped well in maidens at Wincanton and Taunton. Likely would have won last time but lost momentum at the last.
Why: A clear standout on hurdles form, High Fibre has been knocking on the door and looks primed to go one better today. The market is strongly behind him (1.88 on the exchange), and given his strong finishing ability, he should prove too good for this field.

2️⃣ 2nd Place Prediction: Indemnity

Trainer: Emma Lavelle | Jockey: Harry Cobden
Key Form: Fairly useful on the Flat (stays 1¼m) and purchased for 80,000 gns in October. Makes hurdles debut for a top yard.
Why: The class angle in the race, Indemnity has been picked up by a respected trainer and is partnered with Harry Cobden, who has a strong record with newcomers. If translating Flat ability to hurdles, he can give the favourite something to think about. Currently around 6.6-7.8 on the exchange, he represents solid value.

3️⃣ 3rd Place Prediction: Andashan

Trainer: — | Jockey: Rex Dingle
Key Form: Bumper winner last season, placed third in a valuable Newbury event, and has shown promise over hurdles. Expected to improve further.
Why: Andashan is progressing and should take a step forward in this sphere. His bumper form suggests he has ability, and with experience over hurdles already, he should be in the mix. Exchange odds of 4.7-5.6 indicate he's well respected.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Graham

Trainer: — | Jockey: N F Houlihan
Key Form: Fairly useful Flat winner for Richard Hannon but was well beaten on heavy ground at Leicester on hurdles debut. Could improve significantly on better ground.
Why: A case of ‘forgive the debut run’. If the drier ground helps, he could run a much better race than his odds suggest (15-28 on the exchange). A risky but intriguing each-way shout.

🏇 Race 3 - 13:50 Kempton (2m5f Novice Hurdle)

1️⃣ Win Selection: Kingston Pride

Trainer: — | Jockey: Nico de Boinville
Key Form: Point and bumper winner who bolted up on hurdles debut at Uttoxeter. Pulled up in Grade 2 company last time due to ground conditions but remains highly promising.
Why: Looked a class act on his hurdles debut, winning with plenty in hand. The step back into calmer waters should allow him to resume progress, and with Nicky Henderson’s horses often thriving at Kempton, he holds standout credentials. Odds of 2.0-2.12 on the exchange signal confidence.

2️⃣ 2nd Place Prediction: J J Moon

Trainer: — | Jockey: Harry Cobden
Key Form: Strong bumper form and only just denied at Wincanton last time over 2m5f, showing plenty of fight.
Why: A progressive type who ran a big race last time and is expected to go one better soon. The extra experience over hurdles should serve him well, and he’s a solid alternative to the favourite at 4.3-4.9 on the exchange.

3️⃣ 3rd Place Prediction: Juventus De Brion

Trainer: — | Jockey: Harry Skelton
Key Form: Showed ability when second in a Newcastle maiden last time but hung left and didn’t find much when asked.
Why: A horse with raw ability but perhaps a few quirks. If the Skelton team has worked on his finishing effort, he could be a major player. At 6.4-7.8 on the exchange, he’s a fair each-way contender.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Jus De Citron

Trainer: — | Jockey: Paul O'Brien
Key Form: Won on hurdles debut at Doncaster, staying on strongly to assert late.
Why: An unbeaten hurdler who is open to further improvement. This is a stronger race, but he could surprise at 9-11 on the exchange if he steps up again.

🏇 Race 4 - 14:20 Kempton (3m Novices' Handicap Chase)

1️⃣ Win Selection: Moulins Clermont

Trainer: — | Jockey: Caoilin Quinn
Key Form: Massive improvement on second chase start when runner-up at Newbury to a subsequent winner. Looks well-treated off the same mark.
Why: Took a big step forward last time, staying on well and looking a real threat. With that experience under his belt, he can go one better here. Exchange odds around 4.9-6.0 suggest he’s a strong contender with value.

2️⃣ 2nd Place Prediction: Eyed

Trainer: — | Jockey: J J Burke
Key Form: Won at Market Rasen before unseating at Lingfield, then quickly bounced back to winning ways last time.
Why: A progressive type who has taken well to chasing, and his recent form suggests he’s a major player again. Well supported at 3.85-4.5 on the exchange, he’s a key danger.

3️⃣ 3rd Place Prediction: Ideal Des Bordes

Trainer: — | Jockey: Nico de Boinville
Key Form: Winning pointer who made a solid chase debut at Wincanton last month after a layoff. Expected to improve further.
Why: Has the profile of a chaser in the making, and after getting the job done first time over fences, more is expected. He’s trading at 3.85-4.5, making him a serious contender.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Roger Pol

Trainer: — | Jockey: G Sheehan
Key Form: Won on chase debut at Southwell and ran well over shorter at Doncaster last time. Steps back up in trip, which should suit.
Why: Staying looks his forte, and if he gets into a rhythm, he could outrun his odds (8-9.8 on the exchange). A lively each-way option.

🏇 Race 5 - 14:50 Kempton (2m5f Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ The Long Point

Trainer: Paul Nicholls | Jockey: Harry Cobden
Key Form: Showed improvement when fourth at Hereford on his second hurdles start, shaping as a type with plenty more to offer now handicapping.
Why: The booking of Harry Cobden is a big plus, and Paul Nicholls has a strong record with improving novice hurdlers stepping into handicaps. Timeform rates him highly, and market support suggests confidence. The step up in trip should bring further progress.

2️⃣ Star Of Affinity

Trainer: Anthony Honeyball | Jockey: Freddie Gingell
Key Form: Two wins over hurdles, most recently a convincing success in a competitive Taunton handicap 20 days ago. Up 7 lb but remains progressive.
Why: Has a strong recent win on the board, showing an ability to travel well and stay on strongly. If he handles the extra distance, he’s a serious contender, and the market respect backs that up.

3️⃣ Bredon Hill

Trainer: Chris Down | Jockey: James Turner
Key Form: Progressive novice, winning at Warwick before finishing a solid third on handicap debut over 21f on soft ground.
Why: He’s still unexposed and has handled soft conditions well. If he continues improving, he could be a major player.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Hawk Stone

Trainer: Ben Lund | Jockey: James Best
Key Form: Won a handicap hurdle at Uttoxeter last April and shaped better than the result suggested on his return from a layoff at Newcastle.
Why: This longer trip could be a real benefit, and he’s handicapped to go well if building on that last effort. At big odds, he could spring a surprise if his jumping holds up.

🏇 Race 6 - 15:25 Kempton (2m4f Handicap Chase)

1️⃣ Flegmatik

Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton
Key Form: A course specialist who won off a 6 lb higher mark here last year and showed signs of a revival when third at Ascot last time. First-time blinkers could spark further improvement.
Why: He thrives at Kempton and has been given a chance by the handicapper. His latest run suggested he's coming back to form, and Dan Skelton is a master at targeting races like this. If the blinkers help, he could roll back the years with a big performance.

2️⃣ El Rio

Trainer: Emma Lavelle | Jockey: Thomas Bellamy
Key Form: A progressive chaser who has already won twice over this trip and ran a solid third over C&D last time despite a costly mistake.
Why: He’s a strong jumper and was still competitive last time despite making an error. If he produces a cleaner round of jumping, he’ll be a major threat. The form of his latest run holds up well.

3️⃣ Issar D'airy

Trainer: Gary Moore | Jockey: Freddie Mitchell
Key Form: Returned in fine form this season, including a strong second at Cheltenham. Proven at this trip and open to further progress.
Why: He’s consistently competitive, and this trip suits him. If he gets an aggressive ride, he could have a big say in the finish. Market support suggests he’s expected to go well.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Lounge Lizard

Trainer: Henry Daly | Jockey: J J Burke
Key Form: Won at Huntingdon last season and shaped better than the bare result when third at Carlisle on his return.
Why: He’s been running in stronger races and has cheekpieces back on, which could make a difference. His price makes him an appealing each-way bet in a competitive race.

🏇 Race 7 - 15:58 Kempton (2m National Hunt Flat)

1️⃣ Bebe And Bean

Trainer: Paul Nicholls | Jockey: Harry Cobden
Key Form: Made a highly encouraging debut when fifth of 13 at Southwell, shaping as if more to come. Tongue tie applied.
Why: Showed ability on debut and should improve significantly with experience. Harry Cobden is a positive booking, and Paul Nicholls excels in these types of races. If there’s a slow early pace, he’s likely to be well-positioned to strike.

2️⃣ Kadastral

Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton
Key Form: £82,000 purchase with a strong pedigree, related to multiple winners. From a yard with an excellent bumper strike rate.
Why: The Skelton team is flying in bumpers this season, and this well-bred newcomer should be ready to go. If there’s market support, he could be the one to beat.

3️⃣ Frontier Prince

Trainer: Fergal O’Brien | Jockey: J J Burke
Key Form: Placed in bumpers at Ludlow and Wincanton in testing ground. Experience will be a big asset here.
Why: He’s shown ability in previous starts and represents a trainer who does well in these races. His proven stamina and experience should see him in contention late on.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Kiwi Rush

Trainer: Harry Derham | Jockey: Paul O’Brien
Key Form: Runner-up in an Irish point and showed promise on bumper debut at Sandown before fading late.
Why: Likely to improve from his debut effort, and with a more patient ride, he could be an interesting each-way play at a decent price.

🏇 Race 8 - 16:33 Kempton (2m National Hunt Flat)

1️⃣ Edward Sexton

Trainer: Nicky Henderson | Jockey: Mr D H Dunsdon
Key Form: Made a highly promising debut when a close second at Sandown, finishing just behind a stablemate with pointing experience.
Why: Sets the clear standard based on that Sandown run and is expected to improve further. Nicky Henderson’s bumper runners are always worth following, and he should take some stopping.

2️⃣ Old Park Star

Trainer: Paul Nicholls | Jockey: Harry Cobden
Key Form: Encouraging third at Sandown on debut, finishing well clear of the rest.
Why: Represents a top stable and showed enough ability on debut to suggest he can improve again. A strong contender if progressing as expected.

3️⃣ Choice Runner

Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton
Key Form: Shaped with promise when fifth at Chepstow on debut and should come forward for that experience.
Why: The Skeltons have a solid record in bumpers, and with expected improvement, he looks capable of challenging for a place.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Bold Action

Trainer: Chris Gordon | Jockey: Freddie Gordon
Key Form: Placed in Irish points and comes from a yard that knows how to ready a bumper newcomer.
Why: Point form suggests ability, and Chris Gordon’s horses often go well in these types of races. He could be a lively outsider if sharp enough on debut.