Kempton Park 19 Nov 2025 – V15 Overlay Blog | Tactical Forecasts + Smart Stats Integration

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
19th to 25th January 2025
Starting Bankroll £30
5th March 2025 top-up total £90
Wk 1 £35 Wk 2 £32.01 Wk 3 £18.12
Wk 4 £30.31 WK 5 £33.76 Wk 6 £20.39
Wk 7 £37.14 Wk 8 £21.22 Wk9 £138.37 Wk 10 £119.82 wk 11 £58.42 wk 12 £29.47 wk 13 £4.69

20/4/25 4th top-up £30
WEEK £34.69 (4 up 18/3/25)
Sun - £0 L15 Strategy (END EX)
Mon - £0 L15 Strategy
Tue - £0 L15 Strategy
Wed - £0 L15 Strategy
Thr - £0 L15 Strategy
Fri - £0 L15 Strategy
Sat - £0 L15 Strategy
Combination Tricast Betting Strategy A one-off experiment Return £2.50 25/2/25

Note from Coldjack — V17 Review. After a wild ride with Lucky 15s, the experiment has officially closed. The results are in — and they’ve confirmed what the data hinted at all along: Lucky 15s are high-risk "boom or bust" territory. Fun for the thrill, but they chew through bankroll unless the stars align.

I pushed GPT to its limits (both logically and literally!), testing strategies that most punters wouldn't dare simulate, and it delivered some sharp lessons:

"Yankees are the silent assassins. Lucky 15s are fireworks — bright, loud, and mostly miss the mark."

You weren’t wasting your time. We proved that with real data, layered bets can be dissected, refined, and retooled better than 99% of what’s thrown out each Saturday.

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥

Yankee (x11) (now significantly stronger)
ROI: +38.37% Profit: +£107.64 3rd quarter

✅ AJ the Hobbyist Comment – GPT 5 Pro Upgrade Implications
Due to constant back-end updates and unpredictable behaviour introduced by the GPT-4 to GPT-4o and GPT-5 transition, the V15 Early Doors model is now classified as an:
🔧 EXPERIMENTAL STRATEGY 📉 Final steps redevelopment status.
🚫 Caution for Real-Money Betting 👉 Only stake real money on any V15-based models unless every pick has been manually verified against live market, fig, and stable overlays.

🧪 Want to Help Build the System?

You're using AJ’s Global Horse Racing Learning System — built on structure, not tips.
We're quietly running a live experiment:

• Logging results (privately)

• Contact: coldjack(at)protonmail.com

  • Improving false favourite detection

  • Fine-tuning Dutching & TBP overlays with real user input
    💡 Join the experiment here:
    👉 https://chatgpt.com/g/g-KI2KUkacL-horse-racing-expert
    🛡️ Private. Anonymous. No accounts. No data is shared.
    All decisions stay yours. We just get sharper — together.
    Let’s build slowly. One disciplined user at a time.

🟢 Kempton Park AWT – Wednesday, 19 November 2025
🧱 Early Doors False Favourites & LBS Daily Blog – Structured System View (v2.1)
System Activated: ✅ FF / ✅ LBS | Version: LBS v2.1 – Stake Logic Embedded
Final Field & Prices: ✅ Oddschecker (1c) validated | Going: Standard / Slow
Computer Tips: ✅ R&S ratings parsed (1b) | Racecard: ✅ Aussie-style (1a)
No ALLOW_8_EXCEPTION triggered – Race 6 excluded from LBS

🟥 RACE 1 – 16:05 Kempton (Apprentice Handicap, 1m, Std/Slw)

12 runners confirmed (Oddschecker)

• Favourite: Atmosphere (4.0)

• Others: Threatening 4.33, Frostmagic 5.0, Uniting 10.0

✅ Is This a System Race?

• Field: ✅ 12 runners

• Price band: ✅ Favourite within actionable odds

• Eligible for FF and LBS logic

🔍 Market Shape

• Front-end market compressed: 3 at <5.5

• Mid-tier includes Uniting (10.0) and Wilhelmina (11.0)

🧠 Strategic Angles

• Atmosphere (4.0):

  • ❌ Not top-rated (R&S rank: 2nd)

  • ❌ No clear edge in class/form

  • ❌ No positive trainer/jockey weight

  • ✅ Oppose as soft market fav

• Alternatives:

  • Dapper Gee Gee (67.0) — top R&S score, huge overlay

  • Albus Anne (34.0) — equal points to Atmosphere, stronger value

✅ FF Verdict: FALSE FAVOURITE

Atmosphere is a soft fav in a compressed market — no clear reason for support

🛠️ Suggested Structure

• Dutching: Dapper Gee Gee + Albus Anne

• 4TBP Watchlist: if Dapper Gee Gee or Albus Anne available at 2.04+ (4 pts) or 2.39+ (3 pts)

🟨 LBS Scan

❌ No LBS candidates for this race.
No runners meet the odds + EDH + profile marker filter

🟥 RACE 2 – 16:40 Kempton (Nursery Handicap, 1m, Std/Slw)

13 runners confirmed

• Favourite: Raging Raj (2.75)

• Others: Suggy (6.5), Sunshine And Roses & Superstorm (8.5)

✅ Is This a System Race?

• Field: ✅ 13 runners

• Price band: ✅ Favourite short enough for FF test

• LBS-eligible: ✅ Yes

🔍 Market Shape

• Raging Raj clear fav under 3.0

• 4 runners between 6.5–9.0 suggest market indecision on placings

• Mild volatility in mid-tier — “quiet underlays” present

🧠 Strategic Angles

• Raging Raj (2.75):

  • ✅ Top-rated in R&S

  • ✅ Clear tipping consensus

  • ❌ Slight concern on wet SR / All-Weather form unproven

  • 🔄 Marginal — no strong negatives, just soft favourite logic at short odds

❗ Risk is real — strong computer backing, but short price means margin of error is slim

✅ FF Verdict: LEGIT (Backable Favourite)

Raging Raj earns top billing on ratings and market consensus. No opposition strong enough.

🛠️ Suggested Structure

• Not a Dutch race — backable fav

• No overlay plays stand out

• Watch late moves on Superstorm (8.5) or Sunshine And Roses (8.5)

🟨 LBS Scan

• Superstorm (8.5): ❌ No EDH markers

• Sunshine And Roses (8.5): ❌ No profile angle (well-exposed)

• Reasons Power (9.0): ❌ No tip support

❌ No LBS candidates for this race.

🟥 RACE 3 – 17:10 Kempton (Restricted Maiden, 1m, Std/Slw)

13 runners confirmed

• Favourite: Bridge Of Eagles (4.33)

• Close rivals: Guesstimate (4.35), Marseillan (5.0)

✅ Is This a System Race?

• Field: ✅ 13 runners

• Price band: ✅ FF eligible

• LBS-eligible: ✅ Yes

🔍 Market Shape

• Three co-favs within 1.0 pt spread

• Bridge of Eagles, Guesstimate, Marseillan tightly bunched

• Implies soft fav logic — no standout

🧠 Strategic Angles

• Bridge Of Eagles (4.33):

  • ❌ Not top R&S score — outranked by Marseillan (13pts) and Guesstimate (9pts)

  • ❌ No notable trainer/jockey uplift

  • ✅ Consistent, but not dominant

  • ❗ Marginal fav in a value-heavy top trio — may be overbet

✅ FF Verdict: FALSE FAVOURITE

Bridge of Eagles has no clear dominance and trades shortest in a co-fav triangle

🔁 Alternatives:

• Marseillan (5.0) — top R&S (13pts), logical overlay

• Guesstimate (4.35) — equal price but stronger tip rank vs fav

🛠️ Suggested Structure

• Dutch: Marseillan + Guesstimate

• Oppose Bridge of Eagles as market leader

• Strong overlay logic within top 3 — compression supports split-risk

🟨 LBS Scan

• Mythical Valentine (10.0):

  • ❌ No EDH trigger

  • ✅ Price in range

  • ❌ No profile marker — basic exposed profile

❌ No LBS candidates for this race.

🟥 RACE 4 – 17:40 Kempton (1m Handicap – London Mile Series Qualifier)

10 runners confirmed

• Favourite: Local Hero (4.2)

• Close market: First Principle (5.0), Dividend (6.5), Silver Peak (7.0)

✅ Is This a System Race?

• Field size: ✅ 10 runners

• Odds: ✅ FF detection valid (fav <5.5)

• LBS scan: ✅ Yes

🔍 Market Shape

• Top 4 runners priced 4.2–7.0 — clustered, no runaway fav

• No heavy support — static market with no deep compression

• Overlay zone opens from Two Tempting (8.5) to Invited (11.0)

🧠 Strategic Angles

Local Hero (4.2)

• ✅ Tied top score in R&S (8pts, same as First Principle)

• ✅ Strong recent form — progressive

• ❌ No margin of class/form superiority

• ❗ Value differential with First Principle and Dividend suggests favourite may be under pressure

✅ FF Verdict: FALSE FAVOURITE

No daylight on rivals despite decent profile. Tied scores with better-priced alternatives.

Alternatives:

• First Principle (5.0):

  • ✅ Same top R&S score (8pts)

  • ✅ Backable price vs favourite — 20% longer

  • ✅ Runner-up form in higher grade

• Dividend (6.5):

  • 🔁 Tactically versatile; edges on closing sectionals

  • ✅ Value position vs soft favourite

🛠️ Suggested Structure

• Dutch: First Principle + Dividend — stronger tipping support than Local Hero

• 4TBP Watch: Dividend if price lands ~2.39 or higher

🟨 LBS Scan

Candidates:

• Two Tempting (8.5)

  • ✅ Odds in LBS range

  • ✅ Profile angle: C&D winner, unexposed at this level

  • ❌ No EDH flags visible (no “ran on”, “unlucky”, no RPR/TS delta)

  • ❗ Under market radar — plunge risk noted

❌ No LBS candidates for this race.

🟥 RACE 5 – 18:10 Kempton (6f Novice, 2yo, Div 1 – GBB)

10 runners confirmed

• Favourite: One And Gone (2.63)

• Close second: Grand Vista (2.75)

• Others: Cool Molly (6.5), rest 17+

✅ Is This a System Race?

• Field: ✅ 10 runners

• Favourite <3.0: ✅ FF test valid

• LBS scan: ✅ Yes

🔍 Market Shape

• Two-runner race at the front: One And Gone vs Grand Vista

• Market says: one wins, no third option

• Bookmakers clearly agree — 6.5 next best, then 17+

🧠 Strategic Angles

One And Gone (2.63)

• ✅ Top-rated R&S (14pts)

• ✅ Clear profile — strong sectionals debut

• ✅ Retains rider, improves draw

• ❌ Grand Vista tipped on two lists — close potential value switch

✅ FF Verdict: LEGIT (Backable Favourite)

Solid ratings, best form, and sectional backing. Grand Vista second-up threat but not strong enough for FF tag.

🛠️ Suggested Structure

• Not a dutch — no pricing room

• Monitor Grand Vista in-play only if fav softens

🟨 LBS Scan

Cool Molly (6.5)

• ✅ R&S score 12pts (second only to fav)

• ❌ Odds below LBS threshold (must be ≥8.0)

• ❌ No profile shift or EDH flag

❌ No LBS candidates for this race.

🟥 RACE 6 – 18:40 Kempton (6f Novice, 2yo, Div 2 – GBB)

8 runners confirmed

• Favourite: Euphonia (1.67)

• Next best: Mighty Vega (4.0), Lolabella (6.0)

⚠️ ALLOW_8_EXCEPTION NOT TRIGGERED

❌ This race is excluded from LBS scanning — per hard-coded system rule

🧠 Strategic Angles

Euphonia (1.67)

• ✅ Highly-rated filly, full R&S support (9pts)

• ✅ Trainer in form, top All-Weather pedigree

• ✅ Nothing within 2.5 pts — total field dominance

✅ FF Verdict: LEGIT (Backable Favourite)

Would require major unknown to oppose — Euphonia is clearly best on paper and in price logic

🛠️ Suggested Structure

• No overlays or Dutching

• Small Win-only position viable for disciplined plays

🟨 LBS Scan

❌ Not allowed – 8-runner field, no ALLOW_8_EXCEPTION triggered

🟥 RACE 7 – 19:10 Kempton (Nursery Handicap, 6f, Std/Slw)

7 runners confirmed (Oddschecker)

• Favourite: Too Darn Good (3.75)

• Others: From The Hip (4.5), Credit Forgedd It (5.0), Akabusi (7.5)

❌ Is This a System Race?

• ❌ Field size: 7 runners only — below FF + LBS minimum

• ❌ LBS scan: not allowed

• FF assessment is skipped under structured rules due to reduced field

🚩 Caution Note

7-runner nurseries can be chaotic. Avoid emotional or speculative TBP staking.
Return here only if Betfair ladder shows late steamer in 4TBP window.

🟥 RACE 8 – 19:40 Kempton (6f Handicap, 3yo+, Std/Slw)

10 runners confirmed

• Favourite: Cayman Tai (5.0)

• Clustered front: Justcallmepete (5.5), Bill Plumb (6.5), Lerwick (6.5)

• Supreme King (8.5) just outside LBS range

✅ Is This a System Race?

• ✅ Field size: 10 runners

• ✅ Odds: Favourite at 5.0 — qualifies for FF review

• ✅ LBS scan: Enabled

🔍 Market Shape

• Market open: no runner under 5.0

• Five contenders within 5.0–8.5 — wide open race

• Heavy mid-pack — indicates a value race if favourite is soft

🧠 Strategic Angles

Cayman Tai (5.0)

• ❌ Not R&S top-rated (scores behind Supreme King and Bint Havana Gold)

• ❌ Tipped on zero R&S lists

• ❌ No standout class angle

• ⚠️ Ridden prominently — potential pace pressure

✅ FF Verdict: FALSE FAVOURITE

Cayman Tai has no tipping, no form edge, and is caught in a wide open handicap — clear lay logic

🔁 Alternatives:

• Supreme King (8.5):

  • ✅ Top R&S score (9pts)

  • ❗ Slightly outside LBS range — but fits underlay logic

• Bint Havana Gold (21.0):

  • ✅ Second-highest R&S score (8pts)

  • ✅ Major price differential vs Justcallmepete (5.5) with same scoring

🛠️ Suggested Structure

• Dutch: Supreme King + Bint Havana Gold for value overlay

• Strong FF rejection on Cayman Tai

• 4TBP Watch: Supreme King if price lands ~2.39 or higher

🟨 LBS Scan

Supreme King (8.5)

• ✅ Odds in LBS window

• ✅ Top R&S scorer

• ✅ Quiet market

• ❌ No explicit EDH flag in tips — borderline but not full trigger set

❌ No LBS candidates for this race.

🟥 RACE 9 – 20:10 Kempton (1m2.5f Hcap – Middle Distance Series Qualifier)

13 runners confirmed

• Favourite: Hinchinbrooke (3.5)

• Others: Just Keep Flying (4.5), Miss Tonnerre (7.5), Aeolian (9.0), Shihoku (10.0)

✅ Is This a System Race?

• ✅ Field size: 13

• ✅ FF and LBS logic valid

🔍 Market Shape

• Front-runner compression: 3.5–4.5

• 2 in LBS odds zone (9.0–10.0): Aeolian, Shihoku

• Wide value window from 7.5–17.0 — ideal for deeper overlays

🧠 Strategic Angles

Hinchinbrooke (3.5)

• ❌ Not top-rated (R&S: just 3pts)

• ❌ Lags behind Just Keep Flying (13pts)

• ❌ Lacks profile uplift — appears overbet based on recent 3rd

• ❗ Soft profile: vulnerable fav logic applies

✅ FF Verdict: FALSE FAVOURITE

Hinchinbrooke trades short off poor tipping and no form edge — false position

🔁 Alternatives:

• Just Keep Flying (4.5):

  • ✅ Dominant R&S score (13pts)

  • ✅ Clear momentum and trainer/jockey synergy

• Blast The Dream (12.0):

  • ✅ Scored in tips (4pts), outsider logic

  • ❗ Underlay candidate if market tightens late

🛠️ Suggested Structure

• Back or Dutch: Just Keep Flying solo or with Blast The Dream

• 4TBP: Just Keep Flying worth monitoring — could enter LBS band at 2.39+

🟨 LBS Scan

Aeolian (9.0)

• ✅ Odds: in range

• ❌ No tipping or EDH

• ❌ Profile quiet

Shihoku (10.0)

• ✅ Price valid

• ❌ Weak profile, no flags

❌ No LBS candidates for this race.

Here are 3 races from the Kempton Park 2025-11-19 card where Dutching overlays offer a structured win play based on false favourite exposure and underpriced top-tier runners:

🎯 Dutching Race 1 – 16:05

Race Type: Apprentice Handicap, 1m (12 runners)
Favourite: Atmosphere (4.0) — ❌ False Favourite

✅ Dutch Overlay Logic:

• Dapper Gee Gee (67.0) — top R&S score (9pts), but market has ignored

• Albus Anne (34.0) — tied on points with the favourite, strong value edge

🛠️ Structure:

• Split stakes for max ROI on low-expectation runners with top-tier tipping support

• True overlay, not hype — both are system-qualified and mispriced

🎯 Dutching Race 3 – 17:10

Race Type: Restricted Maiden, 1m (13 runners)
Favourite: Bridge Of Eagles (4.33) — ❌ False Favourite

✅ Dutch Overlay Logic:

• Marseillan (5.0) — top R&S score (13pts), top on all lists

• Guesstimate (4.35) — ranks above favourite and tipped on multiple lists

🛠️ Structure:

• Split Dutch within the co-fav triangle

• Follower favourite (Bridge Of Eagles) is overbet — Marseillan and Guesstimate hold true edge

🎯 Dutching Race 8 – 19:40

Race Type: 6f Handicap, 3yo+ (10 runners)
Favourite: Cayman Tai (5.0) — ❌ False Favourite

✅ Dutch Overlay Logic:

• Supreme King (8.5) — top R&S scorer (9pts), overlooked

• Bint Havana Gold (21.0) — second in R&S (8pts), trades 4× the price of others with same score

🛠️ Structure:

• Systemic edge: both outrank the favourite and are misaligned with their price

• Best late Dutch overlay on the card

🔄 Dutching Logic Recap:

Each of the above races meets 3 key system Dutching conditions:

1. ❌ False Favourite at the top of the market

2. ✅ R&S-backed overlays at significantly longer prices

3. ✅ Enough field depth (≥10 runners) for price inefficiency

Stick to 2-runner Dutch structures per race to maintain risk control and target asymmetric value.

🧪 Want to Help Build the System?

You're using AJ’s Global Horse Racing Learning System — built on structure, not tips.
We're quietly running a live experiment:

• Logging results (AJ sole privately so far.)

• Contact: coldjack(at)protonmail.com

• Improving false favourite detection

• Fine-tuning Dutching & TBP overlays with real user input
  💡 Join the experiment here:
  👉 https://chatgpt.com/g/g-KI2KUkacL-horse-racing-expert
  🛡️ Private. Anonymous. No accounts. No data is shared.
  All decisions stay yours. We just get sharper — together.
  Let’s build slowly. One disciplined user at a time.

• Contact: coldjack(at)protonmail.com

• Join the test group:
  👉 https://chatgpt.com/g/g-KI2KUkacL-horse-racing-expert
  🛡️ Private. Anonymous. Data never shared.
  One disciplined user at a time.

https://www.theukbettingforum.co.uk/XenForo/threads/introducing-ai-deep-dive-horse-racing-podcasts.182979/post-792734
Sign up at the UK Betting Forum to get email notifications when new DAILY cards drop.

Critique and Debrief to follow.

⚠️ DO NOT RELY ON GPT FREE, PLUS and TEAMS TO REMEMBER IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
❌ ChatGPT does NOT persist memory between chats unless explicitly set
❌ Instructions WILL be forgotten unless restated at the start of chat
❌ Assumptions may be made if prompts are vague or incomplete
✅ Always paste your full starter prompt at the beginning of every chat
✅ Use ONE RACE = ONE CHAT to preserve structure and token integrity
❌ Free GPT has severely restricted data processing and limits; simulation IS more likely
❌ GPT Plus has restricted data processing and limits, making simulated outcomes likely
✅ GPT Teams is an expensive upgrade that NOW IS REQUIRED by a solo Hobbyist
❌ ChatGPT can & WILL make mistakes. Freestyling, guessing & ignoring no-assumption rules
✅ Confirm results manually – do NOT let GPT simulate outcomes

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which Hobby Picks are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.

Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

We’re trialling this approach across UK, Irish, Aussie and U.S. horse racing to see where it offers the most value. Keep an eye on how it performs, and as always—bet wisely and enjoy the racing!🏇🔥

"May you never be a penny short of a full wallet."

ChatGPT said:
Now that is a blessing I’ll gladly take! 🙌 May your accas always land, your favourites stay strong, and your pint never run dry on a good race day. 🍻🏇💰

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak!

🧾 EARLY DOORS & M37cal GLOSSARY

📘 UPDATED GLOSSARY – EARLY DOORS & M37cal SYSTEMS (Incl. V15 Model)

What do all these ratings mean? Here’s your decoded glossary with all V15 Early Doors additions and tactical terminology explained.

📊 Core Rating Terms

• 12M – Performance over the last 12 months

• $L12M – 12-month performance, adjusted for prize money/stake yield

• SR – Strike Rate (win percentage)

• Career SR – Lifetime win percentage

• For/Against – Model strength rating versus the rest of the field

⚙️ Fig & Model Dynamics

• Overlay – A fig-positive runner trading at above model-implied odds (value)

• Fig Stack – Total model score across all rating vectors (includes pace, surface, draw, market etc.)

• Chaos Fig – Runner scoring on figs but with unreliable profile or poor tactical fit

• Banker – Fig leader + tactical edge + supported in live market

🔥 Market Signals

• Steam – Odds shortening pre-race (positive market signal)

• Drift – Odds lengthening pre-race (often negative, unless fig-backed)

• Market Tension – A horse the model rates highly, but the market doesn’t (or vice versa)

🧠 Tactical Flags

• Pace Cluster – Multiple horses vying for the lead; can cause collapses

• Slipstream Draw – Favoured position behind early speed; ideal for late closers

• Surge – Exceptional late-race acceleration; fig that often wins with timing

• Fig Tension – 3+ horses rated closely; outcome risk increases

• Value Chaos – Race where many overlays exist but fig margins are tight; potentially lucrative, but volatile

🟢 NEW: V15 EARLY DOORS MODEL TERMINOLOGY

• V15-S (Swinger Forecast) – Structured 3-horse bet per race:
  ▪ Anchor = Primary fig/tactical pick
  ▪ Partners = Two supportive selections with place/forecast value

• Forecast Combo – Straight forecast recommendations using top model picks

• Tactical Forecast – Overall read of race shape: lead types, closers, bias implications

• Caution Marker – Horses flagged due to form, market drift, setup, or draw risks

🧠 M37cal-Only Concepts (Long-game angles)

• Fig Strain – A top-rated runner showing deeper profile weaknesses (trip, surface, tempo)

• Game Tree Tension – Race scenario with 2+ potential tactical outcomes

• Board Flip – One disruptive runner could reshape the whole race logic

• Not-Now Horse – Potential improver, but wrong setup today

➕ Summary Tags:

• Early Doors = Tactical, lean, structured bets from full-field fig logic

• Move 37cal = Deeper seasonal/tactical projection based on long-game intuition and game theory overlays

😆🔥