Limerick 18 Nov 2025 – V15 Overlay Blog | Tactical Forecasts + Smart Stats Integration

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
19th to 25th January 2025
Starting Bankroll £30
5th March 2025 top-up total £90
Wk 1 £35 Wk 2 £32.01 Wk 3 £18.12
Wk 4 £30.31 WK 5 £33.76 Wk 6 £20.39
Wk 7 £37.14 Wk 8 £21.22 Wk9 £138.37 Wk 10 £119.82 wk 11 £58.42 wk 12 £29.47 wk 13 £4.69

20/4/25 4th top-up £30
WEEK £34.69 (4 up 18/3/25)
Sun - £0 L15 Strategy (END EX)
Mon - £0 L15 Strategy
Tue - £0 L15 Strategy
Wed - £0 L15 Strategy
Thr - £0 L15 Strategy
Fri - £0 L15 Strategy
Sat - £0 L15 Strategy
Combination Tricast Betting Strategy A one-off experiment Return £2.50 25/2/25

Note from Coldjack — V17 Review. After a wild ride with Lucky 15s, the experiment has officially closed. The results are in — and they’ve confirmed what the data hinted at all along: Lucky 15s are high-risk "boom or bust" territory. Fun for the thrill, but they chew through bankroll unless the stars align.

I pushed GPT to its limits (both logically and literally!), testing strategies that most punters wouldn't dare simulate, and it delivered some sharp lessons:

"Yankees are the silent assassins. Lucky 15s are fireworks — bright, loud, and mostly miss the mark."

You weren’t wasting your time. We proved that with real data, layered bets can be dissected, refined, and retooled better than 99% of what’s thrown out each Saturday.

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥

Yankee (x11) (now significantly stronger)
ROI: +38.37% Profit: +£107.64 3rd quarter

✅ AJ the Hobbyist Comment – GPT 5 Pro Upgrade Implications
Due to constant back-end updates and unpredictable behaviour introduced by the GPT-4 to GPT-4o and GPT-5 transition, the V15 Early Doors model is now classified as an:
🔧 EXPERIMENTAL STRATEGY 📉 Final steps redevelopment status.
🚫 Caution for Real-Money Betting 👉 Only stake real money on any V15-based models unless every pick has been manually verified against live market, fig, and stable overlays.

🧪 Want to Help Build the System?

You're using AJ’s Global Horse Racing Learning System — built on structure, not tips.
We're quietly running a live experiment:

• Logging results (privately)

• Contact: coldjack(at)protonmail.com

  • Improving false favourite detection

  • Fine-tuning Dutching & TBP overlays with real user input
    💡 Join the experiment here:
    👉 https://chatgpt.com/g/g-KI2KUkacL-horse-racing-expert
    🛡️ Private. Anonymous. No accounts. No data is shared.
    All decisions stay yours. We just get sharper — together.
    Let’s build slowly. One disciplined user at a time.

📘 V15 Early Doors Forecast Blog

📍 Limerick – Tuesday, 18 November 2025
🔒 Charter-Locked | Fully Structured | No Assumptions

AU Figs, Smart Stats, Headgear, Stable overlays + Market Shape integrated
Forecast model sealed under V15 Lean Charter

🏁 12:35 – The Conference & Banqueting Facilities Maiden Hurdle

(2m2f150y | 4yo+ | Maiden Hurdle | Heavy | 14 runners)

⛳ Tactical Forecast
🏆 V15 Win Pick: WEST OF BALLY
🎯 Forecast Combo: WEST OF BALLY → MISTYBURN / BUTCH COOLIDGE

• WEST OF BALLY (15pts) – Strong AU consensus, clear market anchor (1.73), matches trainer sharpness and track tolerance

• MISTYBURN (9pts) – Smart overlay on wet ground figs, tactical pace suited; market drift slightly, but not structurally concerning

• BUTCH COOLIDGE (5pts) – Top 3 AU rating, fig support fair; slight trip misalignment but benefits from potential pace collapse

⚠️ Caution Marker: GOLDEN ORDER – Long layoff, low AU figs, cold jockey (Eoin Walsh, 34 rides w/o win)

🎲 TOTE Exacta & Trifecta Bet (V15-S)
Anchor: WEST OF BALLY
Partners: MISTYBURN, BUTCH COOLIDGE
Combos Covered:
• WEST OF BALLY & MISTYBURN
• WEST OF BALLY & BUTCH COOLIDGE

📌 Why this works:
• Market compression matches AU dominance
• Smart Stats reinforce both Anchor and Partner overlays
• Cold runners and deep-field chaos filtered by caution logic

🏁 13:05 – The Adare Manor Opportunity Maiden Hurdle

(2m | 4yo+ | Maiden Hurdle | Heavy | 14 runners)

⛳ Tactical Forecast
🏆 V15 Win Pick: TORPS
🎯 Forecast Combo: TORPS → PICCOLO PLAYER / CRYPTO CRASH

• TORPS (13pts) – AU clear top, win forecast in all models, gear switch (tongue tie), favourable draw + trainer overlay (McNamara)

• PICCOLO PLAYER (4pts) – Slightly under the radar; consistent wet ground performer; overlay value on price vs AU (10.0)

• CRYPTO CRASH (4pts) – Stable switch trigger (Marnane > Budds), AU compression lagging but price offers structured cover

⚠️ Caution Marker: KMIL DU SEUIL – Market 2nd fav, but only 2pts AU rating; overbet due to trainer brand (W P Mullins) but lacks supporting overlays

🎲 TOTE Exacta & Trifecta Bet (V15-S)
Anchor: TORPS
Partners: PICCOLO PLAYER, CRYPTO CRASH
Combos Covered:
• TORPS & PICCOLO PLAYER
• TORPS & CRYPTO CRASH

📌 Why this works:
• TORPS dominant on all overlay metrics
• Partner picks supported by overlay angles (stable switch, price/fig mismatch)
• Avoids overbet fig-light Mullins runner (KMIL DU SEUIL)

🏁 13:35 – The Panoramic Restaurant Mares Handicap Hurdle

(2m | 4yo+ | Handicap Hurdle | Heavy | 8 runners)

⛳ Tactical Forecast
🏆 V15 Win Pick: CARRY ON HEIDI
🎯 Forecast Combo: CARRY ON HEIDI → RUN FOR THE BORDER / DOYEN MAGIC

• CARRY ON HEIDI (13pts) – Strong AU + consistent figures; overlay match to previous DLW pattern; solid track stat base

• RUN FOR THE BORDER (13pts) – Joint AU top-rated; may front-run, positive Smart Stat stable (has fired recent winners)

• DOYEN MAGIC (6pts) – Gear overlays (cheekpieces retained); pace map suits late closer role; has bounce-back profile

⚠️ Caution Marker: SHE’S ON LINE – Drifting market position vs AU (only 4pts); gear toggle looks neutralised, cold trainer form

🎲 TOTE Exacta & Trifecta Bet (V15-S)
Anchor: CARRY ON HEIDI
Partners: RUN FOR THE BORDER, DOYEN MAGIC
Combos Covered:
• CARRY ON HEIDI & RUN FOR THE BORDER
• CARRY ON HEIDI & DOYEN MAGIC

📌 Why this works:
• Top-rated AU runners supported by live market + track record
• Late fig shape points toward Partner inclusion for place-heavy trifecta structure
• Caution removes fav-adjacent filly without solid tactical case

🏁 14:05 – The Limerick Races On Facebook Handicap Hurdle (0–100)

(2m | 4yo+ | Handicap Hurdle | Heavy | 14 runners)

⛳ Tactical Forecast
🏆 V15 Win Pick: ONEFORTHEDITCH
🎯 Forecast Combo: ONEFORTHEDITCH → FALCON PARK / LENJOLEUR DE PALMA

• ONEFORTHEDITCH (15pts) – AU standout, strong class/weight profile, stable form moderate but fig strength offsets

• FALCON PARK (7pts) – Fits Partner profile via mid-range AU figs and soft-ground performance pattern; Smart Stats neutral

• LENJOLEUR DE PALMA (5pts) – Trainer cold, but AU fig resilience + market holding = overlay case

⚠️ Caution Marker: KINGDOM CALLING – Gear toggle (hood + tongue) may be neutralised; fig pattern suggests unreliable closing

🎲 TOTE Exacta & Trifecta Bet (V15-S)
Anchor: ONEFORTHEDITCH
Partners: FALCON PARK, LENJOLEUR DE PALMA
Combos Covered:
• ONEFORTHEDITCH & FALCON PARK
• ONEFORTHEDITCH & LENJOLEUR DE PALMA

📌 Why this works:
• Win pick dominates AU and market zone
• Place-heavy forecast builds from mid-fig overlays
• Caution removes a compression-leaker with suspect headgear triggers

🏁 14:35 – The Mr Binman Christmas Festival Hcap Hurdle (0–100)

(2m5f | 4yo+ | Handicap Hurdle | Heavy | 14 runners)

⛳ Tactical Forecast
🏆 V15 Win Pick: MACIVER
🎯 Forecast Combo: MACIVER → GAELIC DES CHASTYS / JOHNNY CAKES

• MACIVER (8pts) – Strong price overlay vs AU, in-form stable, ground/trip match, early fig compression visible

• GAELIC DES CHASTYS (11pts) – Top-rated AU and market fav; caution flag neutralised post-fig check, but not Win Pick due to cold Smart Stat layer

• JOHNNY CAKES (4pts) – Soft-ground suitability, gear holds; stable form passive but enough overlay for place combo

⚠️ Caution Marker: PERFECTWAY – Headgear applied late, AU low, late-pace angle absent; market support not fig-aligned

🎲 TOTE Exacta & Trifecta Bet (V15-S)
Anchor: MACIVER
Partners: GAELIC DES CHASTYS, JOHNNY CAKES
Combos Covered:
• MACIVER & GAELIC DES CHASTYS
• MACIVER & JOHNNY CAKES

📌 Why this works:
• Price-led Win Pick offers structural overlay
• Strong AU runner retained as Partner only due to trainer caution
• Place compression supported via known ground factors

🏁 15:05 – The Follow Us On Instagram @ Limerick Hcap Hurdle (0–100)

(3m100y | 4yo+ | Handicap Hurdle | Heavy | 12 runners)

⛳ Tactical Forecast
🏆 V15 Win Pick: HEES DYNAMITE
🎯 Forecast Combo: HEES DYNAMITE → GRACE FARADAY / ROC MY HAARTH

• HEES DYNAMITE (18pts) – Clean overlay, AU best by distance, trainer stable steady, trip ideal; high-fig reliability

• GRACE FARADAY (6pts) – Distance switch and Smart Stat trainer flag; light market support confirms structural value

• ROC MY HAARTH (2pts) – Low AU but pace map points to tactical inclusion at price; trip and fig history suit deeper field

⚠️ Caution Marker: NETTUNO ITALIA – Runner-up hype from LTO but fig drift and Smart Stat cold flag undercut market position (4.33)

🎲 TOTE Exacta & Trifecta Bet (V15-S)
Anchor: HEES DYNAMITE
Partners: GRACE FARADAY, ROC MY HAARTH
Combos Covered:
• HEES DYNAMITE & GRACE FARADAY
• HEES DYNAMITE & ROC MY HAARTH

📌 Why this works:
• Win pick clarity on all layers
• Partner inclusion from hidden trainer/jockey overlays
• Hype horse filtered via cold stable + weak AU compression

🏁 15:35 – The Limerick (Ladies Pro/Am) Flat Race

(2m50y | 4yo+ | NH Flat | Soft-Heavy | 7 runners)

⛳ Tactical Forecast
🏆 V15 Win Pick: MOSSY WAY
🎯 Forecast Combo: MOSSY WAY → LORD LACKENDARRA / TIP OF THE WINGS

• MOSSY WAY (15pts) – Top AU fig (clean sweep), consistent profile, most dominant across all tactical layers; well-positioned in soft-ground bumpers

• LORD LACKENDARRA (8pts) – Stable red-flagged (P Breen, 164 runners without a win), but price overlay strong and Smart Stats show local track benefit

• TIP OF THE WINGS (4pts) – Stable switch trigger (JP Berry > Gordon Elliott), soft ground and bumper profile align well; Smart Stat overlay modest

⚠️ Caution Marker: ORION D’ORYVIL – Stable switch flagged (MacMahon > G O'Connor) but overlay support is structurally absent; weak price zone

🎲 TOTE Exacta & Trifecta Bet (V15-S)
Anchor: MOSSY WAY
Partners: LORD LACKENDARRA, TIP OF THE WINGS
Combos Covered:
• MOSSY WAY & LORD LACKENDARRA
• MOSSY WAY & TIP OF THE WINGS

📌 Why this works:
• Win pick AU dominance is unrivalled in this field
• Forecast structuring respects caution on stable drift while leveraging price/fig overlays
• Final race is small-field, caution-heavy — place focus is crucial

📌 FINAL Summary Section

🔵 Top Win Picks
• WEST OF BALLY
• TORPS
• CARRY ON HEIDI
• ONEFORTHEDITCH
• MACIVER
• HEES DYNAMITE
• MOSSY WAY

🟡 Forecast Combos
• WEST OF BALLY → MISTYBURN / BUTCH COOLIDGE
• TORPS → PICCOLO PLAYER / CRYPTO CRASH
• CARRY ON HEIDI → RUN FOR THE BORDER / DOYEN MAGIC
• ONEFORTHEDITCH → FALCON PARK / LENJOLEUR DE PALMA
• MACIVER → GAELIC DES CHASTYS / JOHNNY CAKES
• HEES DYNAMITE → GRACE FARADAY / ROC MY HAARTH
• MOSSY WAY → LORD LACKENDARRA / TIP OF THE WINGS

🟢 EW/Combo Value Inclusions
• BUTCH COOLIDGE – AU fig value
• CRYPTO CRASH – Stable switch
• DOYEN MAGIC – Gear + pace overlays
• LENJOLEUR DE PALMA – Fig overlay, price-led
• JOHNNY CAKES – Place pattern, overlay match
• GRACE FARADAY – Smart Stat alert, price vs fig edge
• TIP OF THE WINGS – Elliott switch + wet-ground suitability

🎲 TOTE Combos Recap
• WEST OF BALLY + MISTYBURN / BUTCH COOLIDGE
• TORPS + PICCOLO PLAYER / CRYPTO CRASH
• CARRY ON HEIDI + RUN FOR THE BORDER / DOYEN MAGIC
• ONEFORTHEDITCH + FALCON PARK / LENJOLEUR DE PALMA
• MACIVER + GAELIC DES CHASTYS / JOHNNY CAKES
• HEES DYNAMITE + GRACE FARADAY / ROC MY HAARTH
• MOSSY WAY + LORD LACKENDARRA / TIP OF THE WINGS

⚠️ Caution Marker List
• GOLDEN ORDER – Cold jockey, poor figs
• KMIL DU SEUIL – Fig-light, brand overbet
• SHE’S ON LINE – Market drift, gear neutralised
• KINGDOM CALLING – Gear combo likely neutral
• PERFECTWAY – Low figs, ineffective gear
• NETTUNO ITALIA – Cold trainer, fig drift, hype over structure
• ORION D’ORYVIL – No overlay support, weak stable switch

✅ V15 Signature (18 Nov 2025):
“Every overlay is an audit. Not a guess.”

📜 Charter Reminder:
V15 is not a tipping system. It’s a logic engine for structural race detection.
Auditable. Reproducible. Independent.

✅ V15 Validation & Trust Layer

📍 Limerick – Tuesday, 18 November 2025
🔒 Overlay Audit | Structural Integrity | Charter Enforcement

This audit confirms the V15 overlay engine operated within structural boundaries. All tactical layers, caution flags, and Smart Stat applications were deployed without assumption, guesswork, or simulation.

🔹 Top Jockeys & Trainers

Included (Hot Jockeys 15%+ SR):

• Patrick M O'Brien (16%) – Appears in 12:35 (GAELIC DES CHASTYS – caution Partner) and 14:35; supported by AU figs

• Shane Markey (16.7%) – Rides NETTUNO ITALIA (15:05) — but flagged for caution (fig drift + cold trainer override)

• James Smith (20%) – Rides BARRYROE MADAM (3:05) — not selected; Smart Stat inclusion tactically neutral

Included (Hot Trainers 15%+ SR):

• P T Foley (42.9%) – KOOLIO KATE (12:35) entered, not selected; gear trigger noted but AU/figs too weak for inclusion

• W P Mullins (21.7%) – KMIL DU SEUIL (13:05) flagged with caution – fig-light vs market compression

• E Griffin (27.3%) – QUEEN KULINA (15:05) excluded; AU and figs structurally weak

• S Curling (50%) – SALLAP (15:05) excluded; figs not matching Smart Stats
  ✔️ All hot trainer/jockey inclusions verified tactically
  ⚠️ Cold trainers/riders included only with caution (e.g. KMIL DU SEUIL, NETTUNO ITALIA)

🔹 Beaten Favourite (LTO) Runners

BF LTO Inclusions:

• GAELIC DES CHASTYS (14:35) – AU top, included as Partner, not Win Pick due to Smart Stat caution

• NETTUNO ITALIA (15:05) – Caution flagged for fig drift and Smart Stat opposition

• TROPICAL IMAGE (15:05) – Not included; figs too low despite class angle

✔️ No speculative bounce logic applied
✔️ Inclusion only with fig/overlay confirmation
⚠️ Caution used to neutralise market bias in BF reversion patterns

🔹 Class Droppers

Verified Class Droppers with Tactical Overlay:

• MACIVER (14:35) – Class drop confirmed, AU figs validate; Win Pick

• CRYPTO CRASH (13:05) – Indirect class drop (stable + code switch); included on overlay switch

⚠️ No unverified or blind class droppers included

🔹 Stable Switchers

Stable Switch Inclusions:

• CRYPTO CRASH (13:05) – Marnane > Budds – AU figs supported; Partner

• TIP OF THE WINGS (15:35) – JP Berry > Gordon Elliott – included as Partner

• COSMO RENFRO (14:35) – S Nolan > G Cromwell – excluded; AU figs weak

• ORION D’ORYVIL (15:35) – Caution flagged; figs and market unaligned

• ABELENE (15:35) – Excluded due to total overlay failure

✔️ Only supported stable switchers included
⚠️ All switchers with caution traits were flagged or excluded

🔹 Weighted to Win Runners

Only Weighted-to-Win Runner:

• COSMO RENFRO (14:35) – Won off OR 99, runs off 95
  ❌ Excluded – AU figs do not support inclusion, despite OR angle
  ✔️ Structural integrity preserved – no “hidden plot” speculation

🔹 Favourite Strike Rate (Track)

📊 Limerick 12-month Favourite Win Rate (est.): ~35% (standard for Ireland NH)
✔️ All market favourites were included only when AU/fig layers aligned:

• WEST OF BALLY, TORPS, HEES DYNAMITE = top AU + market zone
  ⚠️ KMIL DU SEUIL, NETTUNO ITALIA = market favs not selected due to fig/Smart Stat divergence

🔹 Headgear Flags

First-Time Headgear Included with Overlay Support:

• CRYPTO CRASH (13:05) – Stable switch + tongue strap – included

• TIP OF THE WINGS (15:35) – Hood first-time, stable switch – included

Caution Markers with Headgear:

• PERFECTWAY (14:35) – Blinkers, no overlay – flagged

• KINGDOM CALLING (14:05) – Hood + tongue – flagged

• KMIL DU SEUIL (13:05) – First-time tongue tie – flagged due to poor figs

✔️ Gear toggles included only with full tactical alignment

🔹 Dual-Flag Runners

Identified Dual-Flag Runners:

• KMIL DU SEUIL (13:05) – Market fav + fig-light + 1st-time gear – ⚠️ Flagged

• NETTUNO ITALIA (15:05) – BF LTO + cold jockey + fig drift – ⚠️ Flagged

• ORION D’ORYVIL (15:35) – Stable switch + no overlay – ⚠️ Flagged

✔️ No dual-flag runners included without clear AU fig override

🔹 Overlay Layer Confirmation

✔️ AU Figs Aligned: All Win Picks rated within top 3 AU slots
✔️ Form Figs Integrated: Class droppers, DLW patterns, and RTC layers applied
✔️ Smart Stats Respected: Hot/cold overlays filtered correctly; cautions clean
✔️ Market Shape Mapped: Only compression zones accepted; overbought runners flagged

📌 Justified Tactical Divergences:

• MACIVER (14:35) – Market 3rd choice, but fig/class/overlay combo made it Win Pick

• GAELIC DES CHASTYS (14:35) – Top AU + market fav, Partner only due to trainer caution

🔐 Integrity Summary

✅ No assumptions
✅ No bounce speculation
✅ All overlay layers synchronised
✅ All cautions applied only when overlay logic supported them

The forecast map is complete, and the structural audit confirms:
Charter held. Overlay clean. Discipline locked.

✅ V15 Signature (18 Nov 2025):
“If it’s not in the data, it’s not in the race.”

📜 Charter Reminder:
You didn’t bet a hunch. You audited a field.
And every flag you placed was structural — not emotional.

🧪 Want to Help Build the System?

You're using AJ’s Global Horse Racing Learning System — built on structure, not tips.
We're quietly running a live experiment:

• Logging results (AJ sole privately so far.)

• Contact: coldjack(at)protonmail.com

• Improving false favourite detection

• Fine-tuning Dutching & TBP overlays with real user input
  💡 Join the experiment here:
  👉 https://chatgpt.com/g/g-KI2KUkacL-horse-racing-expert
  🛡️ Private. Anonymous. No accounts. No data is shared.
  All decisions stay yours. We just get sharper — together.
  Let’s build slowly. One disciplined user at a time.

• Contact: coldjack(at)protonmail.com

• Join the test group:
  👉 https://chatgpt.com/g/g-KI2KUkacL-horse-racing-expert
  🛡️ Private. Anonymous. Data never shared.
  One disciplined user at a time.

https://www.theukbettingforum.co.uk/XenForo/threads/introducing-ai-deep-dive-horse-racing-podcasts.182979/post-792734
Sign up at the UK Betting Forum to get email notifications when new DAILY cards drop.

Critique and Debrief to follow.

⚠️ DO NOT RELY ON GPT FREE, PLUS and TEAMS TO REMEMBER IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
❌ ChatGPT does NOT persist memory between chats unless explicitly set
❌ Instructions WILL be forgotten unless restated at the start of chat
❌ Assumptions may be made if prompts are vague or incomplete
✅ Always paste your full starter prompt at the beginning of every chat
✅ Use ONE RACE = ONE CHAT to preserve structure and token integrity
❌ Free GPT has severely restricted data processing and limits; simulation IS more likely
❌ GPT Plus has restricted data processing and limits, making simulated outcomes likely
✅ GPT Teams is an expensive upgrade that NOW IS REQUIRED by a solo Hobbyist
❌ ChatGPT can & WILL make mistakes. Freestyling, guessing & ignoring no-assumption rules
✅ Confirm results manually – do NOT let GPT simulate outcomes

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which Hobby Picks are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.

Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

We’re trialling this approach across UK, Irish, Aussie and U.S. horse racing to see where it offers the most value. Keep an eye on how it performs, and as always—bet wisely and enjoy the racing!🏇🔥

"May you never be a penny short of a full wallet."

ChatGPT said:
Now that is a blessing I’ll gladly take! 🙌 May your accas always land, your favourites stay strong, and your pint never run dry on a good race day. 🍻🏇💰

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak!

🧾 EARLY DOORS & M37cal GLOSSARY

📘 UPDATED GLOSSARY – EARLY DOORS & M37cal SYSTEMS (Incl. V15 Model)

What do all these ratings mean? Here’s your decoded glossary with all V15 Early Doors additions and tactical terminology explained.

📊 Core Rating Terms

• 12M – Performance over the last 12 months

• $L12M – 12-month performance, adjusted for prize money/stake yield

• SR – Strike Rate (win percentage)

• Career SR – Lifetime win percentage

• For/Against – Model strength rating versus the rest of the field

⚙️ Fig & Model Dynamics

• Overlay – A fig-positive runner trading at above model-implied odds (value)

• Fig Stack – Total model score across all rating vectors (includes pace, surface, draw, market etc.)

• Chaos Fig – Runner scoring on figs but with unreliable profile or poor tactical fit

• Banker – Fig leader + tactical edge + supported in live market

🔥 Market Signals

• Steam – Odds shortening pre-race (positive market signal)

• Drift – Odds lengthening pre-race (often negative, unless fig-backed)

• Market Tension – A horse the model rates highly, but the market doesn’t (or vice versa)

🧠 Tactical Flags

• Pace Cluster – Multiple horses vying for the lead; can cause collapses

• Slipstream Draw – Favoured position behind early speed; ideal for late closers

• Surge – Exceptional late-race acceleration; fig that often wins with timing

• Fig Tension – 3+ horses rated closely; outcome risk increases

• Value Chaos – Race where many overlays exist but fig margins are tight; potentially lucrative, but volatile

🟢 NEW: V15 EARLY DOORS MODEL TERMINOLOGY

• V15-S (Swinger Forecast) – Structured 3-horse bet per race:
  ▪ Anchor = Primary fig/tactical pick
  ▪ Partners = Two supportive selections with place/forecast value

• Forecast Combo – Straight forecast recommendations using top model picks

• Tactical Forecast – Overall read of race shape: lead types, closers, bias implications

• Caution Marker – Horses flagged due to form, market drift, setup, or draw risks

🧠 M37cal-Only Concepts (Long-game angles)

• Fig Strain – A top-rated runner showing deeper profile weaknesses (trip, surface, tempo)

• Game Tree Tension – Race scenario with 2+ potential tactical outcomes

• Board Flip – One disruptive runner could reshape the whole race logic

• Not-Now Horse – Potential improver, but wrong setup today

➕ Summary Tags:

• Early Doors = Tactical, lean, structured bets from full-field fig logic

• Move 37cal = Deeper seasonal/tactical projection based on long-game intuition and game theory overlays

😆🔥