Lingfield - 7th February 2025

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
Starting Bankroll £30
Top Ups to Bankroll £00.00
19th to 25th January 2025
Wk 1 - £35 - Wk 2 - £32.01

Week 3 - £18.79
Sun - £03.56
Mon - -£0.64
Tue - -£7.00
Wed - -£2.22
Thrs - £0.01
Fri - -£7.50
Sat - -£0.00

Note from Coldjack: Yesterday's stake was fully recovered, with winnings of £0. 1 falling short of the 'zsar bomba' of booms!. We were close but not a bad result, at least we got a payout. we go again.

The Trixie & patent details are not recorded.
The Kempton Jump Meeting blog post is where you should go.

Stakes £0.00 Winning £0.00 losing £0.00
modest returns for the 'Trickey Trixie'
patent punting for the 'zsar bomba' of booms!

Let's debrief the blog post's predictions for today's Lingfield races, focusing on the Trixie and Patent bets, and assess the outcomes based on the actual race results.

Trixie Bet #1: The Consistency Play

1. Annexation (13:02 Lingfield)

   • Prediction: Expected to be in the mix again after an encouraging third over course and distance last time out.

   • Result: Finished 4th, 1.5 lengths behind the third-place horse.

   • Analysis: Annexation ran a respectable race but fell short of the predicted top-three finish.

2. This Farh (13:32 Lingfield)

   • Prediction: Primed for a breakthrough, dropping into maiden company with solid placed form.

   • Result: Won the race as the 4/6 favourite.

   • Analysis: The prediction was accurate; This Farh secured a comfortable victory.

3. Tyrrhenian Sea (14:32 Lingfield)

   • Prediction: Strong all-weather performer, expected to be a solid contender.

   • Result: Won the race at 5/2 odds.

   • Analysis: The prediction was accurate; Tyrrhenian Sea delivered a winning performance.

Outcome: Two out of three selections won, resulting in a profitable Trixie bet.

Trixie Bet #2: The All-Ways Patent (Higher-Risk Play)

1. Havechatma (14:02 Lingfield)

   • Prediction: Expected to go close again after a win at Southwell, carrying no penalty.

   • Result: Did not place in the top three.

   • Analysis: The horse did not perform as anticipated, failing to secure a place.

2. Tadreeb (15:02 Lingfield)

   • Prediction: Hard to oppose as a course and distance specialist in top form.

   • Result: Finished 4th, narrowly missing out on a place.

   • Analysis: Tadreeb was competitive but did not make it into the top three.

3. Little Bittern (15:35 Lingfield)

   • Prediction: Progressive filly, expected to have more in the tank after a win on handicap debut.

   • Result: Finished 6th, 8 lengths behind the winner.

   • Analysis: Little Bittern did not perform to expectations, finishing well behind.

Outcome: None of the selections won or placed, resulting in a loss for this higher-risk Patent bet.

Swinger Observations:

The blog did not provide specific Swinger bet selections. However, analyzing the predictions:

• In the 13:32 race, the predicted 1st and 2nd places were This Farh and Enchanted Way. The actual result was This Farh winning, with Enchanted Way finishing 3rd. A Swinger bet involving these two would have been successful.

• In the 14:32 race, the predicted 1st and 2nd places were Tyrrhenian Sea and Maljoom. The actual result matched this prediction, making a Swinger bet on these two successful.

Overall Analysis:

The blog's predictions had mixed success:

• Trixie Bet #1 yielded a profit with two winners.

• Trixie Bet #2 did not return any winnings.

• Swinger bets, though not explicitly suggested, would have been successful in two instances based on the predictions.

This analysis underscores the unpredictable nature of horse racing and the importance of considering various betting strategies.

Here are the Trixie and Patent Bets based on today's Lingfield selections.

🏇 Trixie Bet #1: The Consistency Play

(Lower-risk, high-probability selections)
Bet Type: Trixie (4 bets: 3 doubles + 1 treble)
Focus: At least two winners for a strong return.

Selections:

1️⃣ Annexation (13:02 Lingfield)
⭐ Confidence: ★★★★☆

• Encouraging third over C&D last time out. Stays on same mark. Should be in the mix again.

2️⃣ This Farh (13:32 Lingfield)
⭐ Confidence: ★★★★★

• Very solid placed form, drops into maiden company, and looks primed for a breakthrough.

3️⃣ Tyrrhenian Sea (14:32 Lingfield)
⭐ Confidence: ★★★★☆

• Strong AW performer, consistent at this level, and has an ideal trip.

📌 Reasoning:

• These three horses have consistent recent form and strong chances based on ratings, trainer/jockey form, and course conditions.

• At least two should hit, making this a reliable play.

🏇 Trixie Bet #2: The All-Ways Patent (Higher-Risk Play)

(More ambitious, targeting value selections)
Bet Type: Patent (7 bets: 3 singles, 3 doubles, 1 treble)
Focus: Even one winner covers much of the stake, two winners bring profit, and all three winners yield an excellent return.

Selections:

1️⃣ Havechatma (14:02 Lingfield)
⭐ Confidence: ★★★★☆

• Won at Southwell, carries no penalty, well-treated. Should go close again.

2️⃣ Tadreeb (15:02 Lingfield)
⭐ Confidence: ★★★★☆

• C&D specialist in top form, unbeaten since joining Rod Millman. Hard to oppose.

3️⃣ Little Bittern (15:35 Lingfield)
⭐ Confidence: ★★★★☆

• Progressive filly, won on handicap debut, looks to have more in the tank.

📌 Reasoning:

• These runners have strong recent form but slightly higher odds, making them great value picks.

• One winner will cover much of the stake, two should generate profit, and all three would be a big return.

🚀 Summary:

✅ Trixie #1: Lower-risk play with high-probability winners.
✅ Patent #2: Slightly riskier but greater potential for big returns.
✅ Key Focus: Lingfield all-weather specialists, in-form trainers, strong market support.

Good luck! 🍀

Selections:

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which 'obby Picks (dropping Hs since the dog chewed my denture) are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.
Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

Full Card

🏇 Race 1 - 13:02 Lingfield (1m2f Apprentice Handicap)

1️⃣ Win Selection: Annexation
Trainer: Tony Carroll | Jockey: Jack Doughty
Key Form: Encouraging third over this course and distance last time out on stable debut, showing he still retains plenty of ability. Now racing off the same mark, which keeps him well-handicapped.
Why: A veteran with versatility, he shaped well on his first start for a new yard, suggesting further improvement could come. With race fitness on his side and a competitive mark, he looks primed to go close in a winnable contest.

2️⃣ 2nd Place: Etretat
Trainer: Charlie Johnston | Jockey: Archie Young
Key Form: Won well over C&D last month and backed it up with a respectable third at Chelmsford. Continues to progress and remains a solid contender.
Why: Proven at the track and trip, he arrives in great form and represents a stable known for keeping horses competitive. The slight step up in class is a minor concern, but he’s consistent and should be in the thick of the finish.

3️⃣ 3rd Place: Tribal Wisdom
Trainer: Ian Williams | Jockey: Ryan Kavanagh
Key Form: Best effort for a while when finishing a close second over C&D 35 days ago, clear of the rest. Raised 3lb but still competitive.
Why: A strong stayer over this trip, he should be thereabouts again. His last effort signalled a return to form, and with a repeat performance, he has every chance of making the frame.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Early Morning Dew
Trainer: Jim & Suzi Best | Jockey: Aidan Keeley
Key Form: Finished third over 1m4f here last time, staying on well after a slow start. Retains the same handicap mark.
Why: A solid each-way option, especially if the pace is strong. He’s shown improvement lately and could surprise with another late charge if things fall right.

🏇 Race 2 - 13:32 Lingfield (7f Maiden Stakes)

1️⃣ Win Selection: This Farh
Trainer: David Loughnane | Jockey: Richard Kingscote
Key Form: Has been knocking on the door with strong placed efforts in recent starts, including a solid third in a Wolverhampton handicap last time, finishing best of the hold-up horses.
Why: This looks like his best opportunity yet to get off the mark. He’s proven over the trip, brings solid recent form, and is dropping back into maiden company. With Kingscote aboard, he should take all the beating.

2️⃣ 2nd Place: Enchanted Way
Trainer: Archie Watson | Jockey: Hollie Doyle
Key Form: Showed promise when second at Epsom in the summer and should come on for her recent fifth over C&D, which was her first run in six months. Now wears cheekpieces for the first time.
Why: She’s in a top yard, has a strong jockey booking in Doyle, and has the potential to improve from her latest run. If the headgear sharpens her up, she’ll be a serious danger to the favourite.

3️⃣ 3rd Place: Amber Honey
Trainer: Ed Dunlop | Jockey: Marco Ghiani
Key Form: Unraced but bred to be useful. Half-sister to multiple winners, including the 1m scorer Sterling Knight and speedy 6f winner Charmed.
Why: A newcomer with an interesting pedigree, and Dunlop’s runners often improve for the run. If she knows her job first time out, she could grab a place at a nice price.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Jungle Cruise
Trainer: Michael Bell | Jockey: Kieran Shoemark
Key Form: Finished fifth in both starts so far, with excuses last time when poorly placed at Chelmsford. Hood applied for the first time.
Why: Not the strongest form but has potential to improve with race experience. If the hood helps him settle, he could sneak into the frame at a price.

🏇 Race 3 - 14:02 Lingfield (5f Handicap)

1️⃣ Win Selection: Havechatma
Trainer: Dean Ivory | Jockey: Grace McEntee
Key Form: Won at Southwell last time, showing early speed and resilience to score under the same jockey. Crucially, she carries no penalty for that success.
Why: Comes here in great form and is effectively running off the same handicap mark, making her very well treated. Given her early speed, she’s likely to be prominent from the outset, and if she gets an easy lead, she could be tough to peg back.

2️⃣ 2nd Place: Recon Mission
Trainer: Tony Carroll | Jockey: Jack Doughty
Key Form: Only narrowly denied over C&D 16 days ago in a strong effort, and remains on a competitive mark.
Why: A reliable performer at this level, he’s been knocking on the door and remains a strong contender. The slight drop in weight makes him even more dangerous, and he should be right in the mix at the finish.

3️⃣ 3rd Place: Diamond Dreamer
Trainer: Patrick Chamings | Jockey: David Probert
Key Form: Four-time winner last year who bounced back from a below-par effort to finish third over C&D last time, staying on late.
Why: While not the most consistent, his recent effort suggests he’s coming back into form. A strong-finishing type, he’ll be dangerous if the race is run at a furious pace.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Harry Brown
Trainer: Peter Crate | Jockey: Shane Kelly
Key Form: Was a good fourth here last time despite racing keenly. Now fitted with blinkers for the first time, which could sharpen him up.
Why: Has the ability to make an impact and is potentially underrated in the market. If the headgear helps settle him and he finds more in the finish, he could surprise at a nice price.

🏇 Race 4 - 14:32 Lingfield (1m Listed Stakes)

1️⃣ Win Selection: Tyrrhenian Sea
Trainer: Roger Varian | Jockey: Jack Mitchell
Key Form: Strong AW performer who was a game second in a Listed race here last time over 1m2f. Has proven himself at this level and drops back to his optimum trip.
Why: A consistent performer on the all-weather, he looks to be the most solid option. With Maljoom’s inconsistency, Tyrrhenian Sea could capitalise, and his record at Lingfield makes him a standout choice.

2️⃣ 2nd Place: Maljoom
Trainer: William Haggas | Jockey: Tom Marquand
Key Form: Showed flashes of class when second in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes last year but ended the season on a low note. Returns without headgear.
Why: On his best form, he’s the best horse in the race, but his inconsistency and long losing streak raise concerns. If he’s back to his best, he can win, but there are risks attached.

3️⃣ 3rd Place: Popmaster
Trainer: Ed Walker | Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Key Form: Placed in a Listed race at Kempton in December and remains a useful performer despite a long losing run.
Why: A capable runner in this grade, but not the most reliable. He’s had a few tries over 1m without success, but his class should see him make the frame.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Imperial Express
Trainer: Andrew Balding | Jockey: Callum Hutchinson
Key Form: Has been running in handicaps but has some decent efforts to her name, including a win at Hamilton over 9f.
Why: This is a big step up in class, but she’s lightly raced and could surprise if given a patient ride. Needs to improve but could outrun her odds.

🏇 Race 5 - 15:02 Lingfield (7f Handicap)

1️⃣ Tadreeb
Trainer: Rod Millman | Jockey: Oliver Searle
Key Form: Thriving since joining Rod Millman, completing a C&D hat-trick last month. Remains in top form, and a 4lb rise may not be enough to stop him.
Why: This course specialist is in red-hot form, unbeaten over C&D for his new yard. Market confidence remains strong, and with tactical speed to hold a good position, he can land the four-timer.

2️⃣ Beattie Is Back
Trainer: Richard Fahey | Jockey: O J Orr
Key Form: Won at Newcastle in November and has been consistently placed in strong 7f handicaps since.
Why: This consistent performer thrives at the trip and should be in contention once again. Solid Newcastle form ties in well, and his strong finishing effort makes him a reliable place contender.

3️⃣ Rey De La Batalla
Trainer: Simon Dow | Jockey: Paddy Bradley
Key Form: C&D winner, finished second to Tadreeb here last time, only beaten by half a length.
Why: Has proven track form, stays the 7f well, and should be competitive again. May not reverse the form with Tadreeb, but is a big player for the places.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Thapa Vc
Trainer: Mark Rimell | Jockey: Jack Mitchell
Key Form: C&D winner, runner-up over C&D on New Year’s Eve, but disappointed at Wolverhampton last time when the race didn’t suit.
Why: If he bounces back to his best Lingfield form, he could surprise at a big price. A return to this track and trip may be the key to unlocking his potential.

🏇 Race 6 - 15:35 Lingfield (6f Handicap)

1️⃣ Little Bittern
Trainer: Eve Johnson Houghton | Jockey: Oliver Carmichael
Key Form: Progressive filly who won on handicap debut at Southwell over 6f last month. Looks to have plenty more to offer despite a 6lb rise.
Why: Clearly on an upward curve, and the way she won at Southwell suggests she has more in hand. This isn’t a deep race, and she’s likely to be hard to beat if improving again.

2️⃣ The Thames Lady
Trainer: Richard Hughes | Jockey: Finley Marsh
Key Form: Lightly raced and potentially well-handicapped on her debut in this company. Showed ability in a strong Chelmsford novice.
Why: The switch to handicaps should unlock further progress. Well-bred for sprinting and could be the main danger to the favourite if she improves on her previous runs.

3️⃣ She Went Whoosh
Trainer: Richard Hannon | Jockey: S M Levey
Key Form: Placed in her last three runs over 5f and 6f, including a solid second at Nottingham last time.
Why: A consistent type who may find 6f on polytrack ideal. Has tactical speed and strong place claims based on her form.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Apple’s Angel
Trainer: Simon Dow | Jockey: L Morris
Key Form: Won over 6f at Kempton last time at 22/1, showing improved form. Only up 2lb and could back it up.
Why: Well-drawn, race fit, and in form, she could go close again at a price. She’s shown solid speed and will be a threat if she gets a soft lead.

🏇 Race 7 - 16:05 Lingfield (6f Handicap)

1️⃣ Watermelon Sugar
Trainer: Chelsea Banham | Jockey: Joey Haynes
Key Form: C&D winner who ran his best race for some time when third in a stronger Wolverhampton 6f handicap last time. Now 2lb below last winning mark.
Why: Signs of a return to form, and back at his preferred track, he’s well-treated to strike again. A strong each-way bet with proven ability at Lingfield.

2️⃣ Brunel Charm
Trainer: Charlie Wallis | Jockey: Marco Ghiani
Key Form: Course winner, snapped a losing streak with a strong front-running win at Kempton last time. Remains well-treated on old form.
Why: Confidence booster last time, and if given a soft lead again, he’ll be tough to peg back. Must be respected in an open contest.

3️⃣ Nordic Glory
Trainer: Michael Attwater | Jockey: William Carson
Key Form: Five-time course winner, form has dipped recently, but mark has eased and a return to Lingfield could spark improvement.
Why: Has plenty of track experience and looks well-handicapped. If bouncing back, he’s a major player for the places.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Francisco
Trainer: Patrick Chamings | Jockey: Alfie Redman
Key Form: Lightly raced, ran a promising second at Wolverhampton after a long layoff. Potential to improve in handicaps.
Why: Has untapped potential, and if fully fit, he could outrun his odds. Unexposed and interesting in this field.

🏇 Race 8 - 16:40 Lingfield (1m2f Handicap)

1️⃣ Backer Bilk
Trainer: Jim & Suzi Best | Jockey: L Morris
Key Form: Much improved on handicap debut when runner-up at Wolverhampton over 8.6f. Staying on well late, suggesting this step up in trip could unlock further improvement.
Why: Looks well-handicapped, and the extra distance should suit. Given how he finished last time, he’s got leading claims in a winnable race.

2️⃣ Ignition
Trainer: Edward Smyth-Osbourne | Jockey: Rob Hornby
Key Form: Improved in blinkers when a close third at Wolverhampton last time. Unexposed at this trip and finishing strongly despite trouble in running.
Why: Well-handicapped and improving, if he gets a clearer run, he’ll be a big danger to the selection.

3️⃣ Emily Rebecca
Trainer: Richard Hannon | Jockey: S M Levey
Key Form: Three novice runs at shorter trips without showing much, but bred for further and now steps up in trip for handicap debut.
Why: From a top yard, she could easily improve now handicapping, and any market support would be notable.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Rue Detoile
Trainer: Daniel Steele | Jockey: Rhys Clutterbuck
Key Form: Yet to make an impact, but lightly raced and could find more in a weak race.
Why: Likely big odds, but unexposed and could step up in trip. Worth a small each-way interest if improving.