Market Rasen 17 February 2026 – V15 Overlay Blog | Tactical Forecasts + Smart Stats Integration

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
19th to 25th January 2025
Starting Bankroll £30
5th March 2025 top-up total £90
Wk 1 £35 Wk 2 £32.01 Wk 3 £18.12
Wk 4 £30.31 WK 5 £33.76 Wk 6 £20.39
Wk 7 £37.14 Wk 8 £21.22 Wk9 £138.37 Wk 10 £119.82 wk 11 £58.42 wk 12 £29.47 wk 13 £4.69

20/4/25 4th top-up £30
WEEK £34.69 (4 up 18/3/25)
Sun - £0 L15 Strategy (END EX)
Mon - £0 L15 Strategy
Tue - £0 L15 Strategy
Wed - £0 L15 Strategy
Thr - £0 L15 Strategy
Fri - £0 L15 Strategy
Sat - £0 L15 Strategy
Combination Tricast Betting Strategy A one-off experiment Return £2.50 25/2/25

Note from Coldjack — V17 Review. After a 12 month wild ride, the experiment will continue during 2026. The results are in — and they’ve confirmed what the data hinted at all along: GPT predictions are risky "boom or bust" territory. Fun for the thrill, but they chew through bankroll unless the stars align & bankroll DISCIPLINE is maintained.

I pushed GPT to its limits (both logically and literally!), testing strategies that most punters wouldn't dare simulate, and it delivered some sharp lessons:

"Stumpy Loftson's daily £1 placepot (started Aug 2025) — bright, loud, and mostly miss the mark." nailed £285.50 04 Dec 2025 with 3 other minor payouts to date (APPROX. £110).

Yankee (x11) (now significantly weaker)
ROI: +1.12% Profit: +£10.40 4th quarter 2025

19th January 2025 - Starting Bankroll £30 - Offline BR £90
19th January 2026 - Inplay BR £13.57 - Offline Bank BR £450 (winnings) drawdown available for £40 top-ups as required.

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥

✅ AJ the Hobbyist Comment – V15 status fully updated to reflect the sudden shift caused by the GPT‑4o retirement and backend rerouting. 04/02/2026 UK Betting Forum for full details.
Charter compliance and structural integrity are now under direct threat.

🔧 Experimental Strategy under redevelopment - SIX years hard work, loneliness and self-learning in danger of being a waste of time. I'm going to work on MY version of 5.oh (4.oh upgrade), which should have been a priority for OpenAI.
🚫 Caution for Real-Money Betting 👉 Only stake real money on any V15-based models unless every pick has been manually verified against live market, fig, and stable overlays.

✅ NEW TOTE EXPERIMENT LOGIC CONFIRMED (Effective from 28/01/26)
❌ REAL money is no longer used for this experiment. Data collection only at this stage.
🎲 TOTE Trifecta – NO CHANGE
• ✅ LANDED if all 3 forecast combo runners finish in any top 3 order
🎯 TOTE Exacta – UPDATED
• ✅ LANDED only if:
 – V15 Win Pick finishes 1st, and
 – Either of the two forecast partners finishes 2nd
• ❌ FAILED if Win Pick does not win
• ❌ FAILED if 2nd horse is not from forecast combo
This is now locked into the V15 charter logic going forward.
All future Critique & Debrief reports will apply this anchored Exacta rule.
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📘 V15 Acronyms & Overlays — Explained
• AU fig – Algorithmic Utility figure — core structural rating combining form, pace, market overlays, gear changes.
• H4C – Horses for Courses — runner with proven course form (e.g. multiple wins/places at today's track).
• R2W – Rated to Win — third-party score (often from Aussie sources) validating a win-capable profile.
• TJ&T – Trainer, Jockey & Track synergy — flags powerful combos (e.g. Mulrennan at Newcastle, Loughnane at Wolverhampton).
• Smart Stats – Tactical stat overlays from Timeform (trainer/jockey cold streaks, surface bias, win %.).
• V15-S – Structured forecast overlay — the 3-runner box used for Exacta/Trifecta with Anchor + 2 Partners.
• Forecast Combo – The tactical 1–2–3 runners for place/swing coverage (not win tips).
• Caution Marker – Runner flagged as an overlay risk due to gear failure, drift, pace mismatch, or cold stable.
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AJ UPDATE 20:30 - The Wolverhampton Evening Card published on Monday 16/02/26 uses the new version of 5.2 running on a series of hardened prompts to force compliance with no drift to fantasy picks.

Exercise extreme caution if betting real money on the Early Doors predictions at this stage.
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📝 Critique & Debrief | Market Rasen – 17 February 2026

💷 Structured Bets Critique & Learning Points

Structured Yankee: Senator | Getawhisky | Railway Bell | Little Ledgend
Stake: £3.30 (11 x £0.30)
Return: £0.00

• SENATOR won (13:30) — structural anchor held cleanly in opening race.
• GETAWHISKY unplaced (4th, 14:00) — included as forecast partner only; did not convert.
• RAILWAY BELL 2nd (15:02) — forecast partner ran to place but not win.
• LITTLE LEDGEND 3rd (15:37) — market leader inclusion ran to frame but not win.

Learning Points:
• Only one leg won; Yankee structure collapsed at Race 2.
• Three of four legs finished in top three — place integrity stronger than win conversion.
• Structural divergence (GETAWHISKY over KHRISMA as bet leg) exposed risk in opposing AU favourite.

🏁 Race-by-Race Breakdown

13:30 – V15 Win Pick: SENATOR
Result: 1st SENATOR | 2nd MACSHADOW DES CRAI | 3rd MY KINDA GHAIY

Forecast Combo: SENATOR → MACSHADOW DES CRAI / MY KINDA GHAIY
• Boxed Trifecta: ✅ LANDED (all three forecast horses finished 1-2-3)
• Exacta: ✅ LANDED (SENATOR won; MACSHADOW DES CRAI 2nd)

14:00 – V15 Win Pick: CHARISMA CAT
Result: 1st KHRISMA | 2nd CHARISMA CAT | 3rd WATAMU

Forecast Combo: CHARISMA CAT → KHRISMA / GETAWHISKY
• Boxed Trifecta: ❌ FAILED (GETAWHISKY finished 4th)
• Exacta: ❌ FAILED (V15 Win Pick did not win)

14:30 – V15 Win Pick: FLORITA
Result: 1st SCOTTISH KING | 2nd WORTH THE WALK

Forecast Combo: FLORITA → BOBALOT / WORTH THE WALK
• Boxed Trifecta: ❌ FAILED (FLORITA and BOBALOT did not place in top two; only WORTH THE WALK placed 2nd)
• Exacta: ❌ FAILED (V15 Win Pick did not win)

15:02 – V15 Win Pick: MADAME LUNA
Result: 1st PRETENDING | 2nd RAILWAY BELL | 3rd JUST HER TYPE

Forecast Combo: MADAME LUNA → MERMAIDS CAVE / RAILWAY BELL
• Boxed Trifecta: ❌ FAILED (MADAME LUNA and MERMAIDS CAVE not in top three)
• Exacta: ❌ FAILED (V15 Win Pick did not win)

15:37 – V15 Win Pick: CAMPAIGN TRAIL
Result: 1st AIRE SPRAY | 2nd TZARMIX | 3rd LITTLE LEDGEND

Forecast Combo: CAMPAIGN TRAIL → RIBEYE / LITTLE LEDGEND
• Boxed Trifecta: ❌ FAILED (CAMPAIGN TRAIL and RIBEYE did not place in top three)
• Exacta: ❌ FAILED (V15 Win Pick did not win)

16:12 – V15 Win Pick: WINDSURFER
Result: 1st ERIC CARMEN | 2nd WINDSURFER | 3rd SINGAPORE TRIP

Forecast Combo: WINDSURFER → TRAMUNTANA / ERIC CARMEN
• Boxed Trifecta: ❌ FAILED (TRAMUNTANA not in top three)
• Exacta: ❌ FAILED (V15 Win Pick did not win)

16:47 – V15 Win Pick: JESSMARVEL
Result: 1st ON JACK | 2nd SUPERIOR QUEEN | 3rd JESSMARVEL

Forecast Combo: JESSMARVEL → SUPERIOR QUEEN / FREERIDING
• Boxed Trifecta: ❌ FAILED (FREERIDING not in top three)
• Exacta: ❌ FAILED (V15 Win Pick did not win)

📉 Cumulative Outcome Analysis

• V15 Win Picks WON: 1 of 7 (SENATOR)
• V15 Win Picks placed (Top 3): 4 of 7 (SENATOR, CHARISMA CAT, WINDSURFER, JESSMARVEL)
• Boxed Trifecta LANDED: 1 race (13:30 only)
• Exacta LANDED (Win-Pick-Anchored): 1 race (13:30 only)
• Structured Yankee: 1 winning leg, 3 losing legs — £0.00 return

🔧 Model Reflection & Refinement Notes

• 13:30 fully validated structure: AU anchor + both partners finished 1-2-3.
• 14:00 structure partially held (Win Pick 2nd, forecast partner 1st) but anchor requirement for Exacta exposed rigidity.
• 14:30 and 15:02 showed overlay divergence in handicaps; top AU anchors did not convert.
• 15:37 caution runner (AIRE SPRAY) won; caution flag correct but underweighted in impact.
• 16:12 forecast partner (ERIC CARMEN) won; anchor inversion cost Exacta under win-anchored rule.
• 16:47 caution marker (ON JACK) won; dual-layer compression risk materialised.

Charter discipline applied.
All outcomes derived strictly from uploaded results.

Pre-racing Preview & Predictions

ED V15 DAILY BUILD — MARKET RASEN — 17 FEBRUARY 2026
V15 EARLY DOORS | TACTICAL FORECASTS + SMART STATS INTEGRATION

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🏁 13:30 – Join Racing TV Now Juvenile Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)
(2m125y | 4yo | Maiden Hurdle | Good to Soft | 8 runners)

⛳ Tactical Forecast:
🏆 V15 Win Pick: SENATOR
🎯 Forecast Combo: SENATOR → MACSHADOW DES CRAI / MY KINDA GHAIY

• SENATOR (13pts) – Top Rated-to-Win layer with clear AU dominance and tight market positioning inside the 2.1–2.4 compression band, indicating structured strength in a low-depth maiden.
• MACSHADOW DES CRAI (4pts) – Market leader at 2.1 with stable positioning in early pricing, providing structural cover within the primary exchange compression zone.
• MY KINDA GHAIY (3pts) – Secondary AU inclusion with 7.0 pricing offering fig-backed inclusion beyond the top-two market tier.

🧲 H4C + TJ&T Marker:
• SENATOR – Positive recent strike rate profile in hot jockey window (15%+ last 30 days).

⚠️ Caution Marker: KNIGHTON – Priced at 26.0 despite AU inclusion earlier in grid, indicating mismatch between rating layer and live market.

🎲 TOTE Exacta & Trifecta Bet (V15-S):
Anchor: SENATOR
Partners: MACSHADOW DES CRAI, MY KINDA GHAIY
Combos Covered: SENATOR & MACSHADOW DES CRAI; SENATOR & MY KINDA GHAIY

📌 Why this works:
• AU top score aligns with sub-3.0 market compression.
• Exacta structure anchored around dual market leaders limits chaos exposure.
• Third inclusion balances fig layer without duplicating price tier.

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🏁 14:00 – Watch On Racing TV EBF Mares' 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)
(2m125y | 4yo+ Mares | Novice Hurdle | Good to Soft | 9 runners)

⛳ Tactical Forecast:
🏆 V15 Win Pick: CHARISMA CAT
🎯 Forecast Combo: CHARISMA CAT → KHRISMA / GETAWHISKY

• CHARISMA CAT (14pts) – Clear AU leader with consistent grid dominance and positioned at 4.5 in the market, offering structural overlay against shorter-priced rival.
• KHRISMA (9pts) – Beaten favourite LTO with hood applied and strong stable profile (N J Henderson), creating recovery-layer inclusion at 2.25.
• GETAWHISKY (3pts) – Class dropper (Class 2 > Class 4) and included in AU lower tier, providing structured secondary depth.

🧲 H4C + TJ&T Marker:
• KHRISMA – Nico De Boinville in hot jockey window; Henderson stable in 24%+ month profile.

⚠️ Caution Marker: WATAMU – Market presence at 8.5 without AU dominance, representing potential unsupported compression.

🎲 TOTE Exacta & Trifecta Bet (V15-S):
Anchor: CHARISMA CAT
Partners: KHRISMA, GETAWHISKY
Combos Covered: CHARISMA CAT & KHRISMA; CHARISMA CAT & GETAWHISKY

📌 Why this works:
• AU primary score diverges from favourite creating overlay anchor.
• Beaten favourite layer adds structured rebound angle.
• Class-drop inclusion strengthens mid-tier structural integrity.

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🏁 14:30 – Every Race Live On Racing TV Novices' Handicap Chase
(2m7f191y | 5yo+ | Handicap Chase | Soft/Heavy | 6 runners)

⛳ Tactical Forecast:
🏆 V15 Win Pick: FLORITA
🎯 Forecast Combo: FLORITA → BOBALOT / WORTH THE WALK

• FLORITA (16pts) – Dominant AU score with consistent multi-column appearance and priced at 2.38 inside top compression tier.
• BOBALOT (9pts) – Second-tier AU inclusion at 9.5, offering structural variance outside the main market pair.
• WORTH THE WALK (5pts) – Stable AU mid-layer with repeated placement in grid segments, reinforcing rating consistency.

🧲 H4C + TJ&T Marker:
• FLORITA – Trainer/jockey combination operating within positive 30-day strike-rate window.

⚠️ Caution Marker: ALLTALKNOACTION – 3.75 market presence without top AU dominance, representing potential market-led bias.

🎲 TOTE Exacta & Trifecta Bet (V15-S):
Anchor: FLORITA
Partners: BOBALOT, WORTH THE WALK
Combos Covered: FLORITA & BOBALOT; FLORITA & WORTH THE WALK

📌 Why this works:
• Clear AU dominance in small-field handicap chase.
• Anchor priced inside main compression zone reducing volatility.
• Secondary partners provide structural depth across price bands.

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🏁 15:02 – Visit Racingtv.Com Mares' Handicap Hurdle (Challenger Mares' Hurdle Series Qualifier)
(2m4f139y | 4yo+ Mares | Class 4 Handicap Hurdle | Good to Soft | 12 runners)

⛳ Tactical Forecast:
🏆 V15 Win Pick: MADAME LUNA
🎯 Forecast Combo: MADAME LUNA → MERMAIDS CAVE / RAILWAY BELL

• MADAME LUNA (9pts) – Joint AU grid leader with repeated Rated-to-Win visibility and positioned at 3.75 within the primary market compression band, indicating alignment between rating layer and price structure.
• MERMAIDS CAVE (8pts) – Secondary AU presence with strong prize-money profile and structural depth at 34.0, providing rating-backed inclusion outside the main price cluster.
• RAILWAY BELL (4pts) – Mid-tier AU contributor at 5.0, sitting just behind the favourite tier and offering structural balance within the top half of the market.

🧲 H4C + TJ&T Marker:
• MADAME LUNA – Harry Derham stable operating at 24%+ last 30 days with Paul O’Brien in hot-jockey window.

⚠️ Caution Marker: SNOWROCCO – Market presence at 9.0 without consistent AU grid reinforcement, suggesting price-led positioning.

🎲 TOTE Exacta & Trifecta Bet (V15-S):
Anchor: MADAME LUNA
Partners: MERMAIDS CAVE, RAILWAY BELL
Combos Covered: MADAME LUNA & MERMAIDS CAVE; MADAME LUNA & RAILWAY BELL

📌 Why this works:
• AU top layer aligns with upper market compression.
• Inclusion spans both short and mid/long price tiers to manage field depth.
• Stable strike-rate support reinforces structural anchor.

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🏁 15:37 – Bet At Racingtv.Com Handicap Hurdle
(2m7f16y | 4yo+ | Class 4 Handicap Hurdle | Soft | 9 runners)

⛳ Tactical Forecast:
🏆 V15 Win Pick: CAMPAIGN TRAIL
🎯 Forecast Combo: CAMPAIGN TRAIL → RIBEYE / LITTLE LEDGEND

• CAMPAIGN TRAIL (13pts) – Clear AU primary rating with multi-column reinforcement and positioned at 15.0, creating rating-versus-market divergence within a competitive staying handicap.
• RIBEYE (9pts) – Strong secondary AU layer at 29.0, supported by top-earner profile and providing structural depth in the upper price band.
• LITTLE LEDGEND (3pts) – Market leader at 3.13 with AU inclusion, offering compression cover inside the primary favourite zone.

🧲 H4C + TJ&T Marker:
• LITTLE LEDGEND – O Murphy stable in 21%+ 30-day window with Sean Bowen holding strong course record.

⚠️ Caution Marker: AIRE SPRAY – 3.75 market positioning without leading AU score, indicating potential unsupported compression.

🎲 TOTE Exacta & Trifecta Bet (V15-S):
Anchor: CAMPAIGN TRAIL
Partners: RIBEYE, LITTLE LEDGEND
Combos Covered: CAMPAIGN TRAIL & RIBEYE; CAMPAIGN TRAIL & LITTLE LEDGEND

📌 Why this works:
• AU primary diverges from market favourite creating structural overlay.
• Partner selection covers both compression leader and deep-price reinforcement.
• Staying handicap profile benefits from rating-layer diversification.

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🏁 16:12 – Get Daily Tips At Racingtv.Com Handicap Chase
(2m3f34y | 5yo+ | Class 4 Handicap Chase | Soft/Heavy | 6 runners)

⛳ Tactical Forecast:
🏆 V15 Win Pick: WINDSURFER
🎯 Forecast Combo: WINDSURFER → TRAMUNTANA / ERIC CARMEN

• WINDSURFER (9pts) – AU Rated-to-Win leader at 9pts and priced at 6.0, sitting inside second-tier market compression while offering rating-supported positioning.
• TRAMUNTANA (8pts) – Near-top AU scorer and market favourite at 2.75, providing structured favourite inclusion within anchor-led combination.
• ERIC CARMEN (8pts) – Matched AU mid-tier layer at 4.5 and reinforced by headgear application, supporting structural inclusion within small-field chase dynamics.

🧲 H4C + TJ&T Marker:
• TRAMUNTANA – O Murphy yard in 21%+ recent strike window with Sean Bowen holding strong course metrics.

⚠️ Caution Marker: SINGAPORE TRIP – High earner with 6.0 price but not dominant in AU grid, creating potential reputation-led compression.

🎲 TOTE Exacta & Trifecta Bet (V15-S):
Anchor: WINDSURFER
Partners: TRAMUNTANA, ERIC CARMEN
Combos Covered: WINDSURFER & TRAMUNTANA; WINDSURFER & ERIC CARMEN

📌 Why this works:
• AU anchor positioned against shorter-priced rival creates layered structure.
• Small-field chase reduces volatility around top three rated.
• Market and rating alignment across all three selections maintains structural cohesion.

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🏁 16:47 – Racing TV Profits Returned To Racing "Junior" National Hunt Flat Race (GBB Race)
(2m125y | 4yo | NH Flat | Good to Soft | 5 runners)

⛳ Tactical Forecast:
🏆 V15 Win Pick: JESSMARVEL
🎯 Forecast Combo: JESSMARVEL → SUPERIOR QUEEN / FREERIDING

• JESSMARVEL (8pts) – AU Rated-to-Win leader with repeated grid presence and positioned at 2.75 within the top compression tier of a five-runner field, indicating rating and market alignment.
• SUPERIOR QUEEN (7pts) – Strong secondary AU score at 11.0, offering structured rating depth outside the favourite tier while maintaining grid reinforcement.
• FREERIDING (3pts) – Mid-tier AU inclusion at 5.5, positioned between the primary favourite and higher-priced runner, providing balanced structural coverage.

🧲 H4C + TJ&T Marker:
• JESSMARVEL – Only runner with dominant AU grid presence across Rated-to-Win and For/Against layers.

⚠️ Caution Marker: ON JACK – 3.13 market presence without equivalent AU dominance, indicating compression risk in small-field dynamics.

🎲 TOTE Exacta & Trifecta Bet (V15-S):
Anchor: JESSMARVEL
Partners: SUPERIOR QUEEN, FREERIDING
Combos Covered: JESSMARVEL & SUPERIOR QUEEN; JESSMARVEL & FREERIDING

📌 Why this works:
• AU leader aligned with favourite tier in compact field.
• Partner selection spans mid and upper price layers to reduce single-tier exposure.
• Five-runner structure increases predictability within top three rating cluster.

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📌 FINAL SUMMARY SECTION

🔵 Top Win Picks
• 13:30 – SENATOR
• 14:00 – CHARISMA CAT
• 14:30 – FLORITA
• 15:02 – MADAME LUNA
• 15:37 – CAMPAIGN TRAIL
• 16:12 – WINDSURFER
• 16:47 – JESSMARVEL

🟡 Forecast Combos
• 13:30: SENATOR → MACSHADOW DES CRAI / MY KINDA GHAIY
• 14:00: CHARISMA CAT → KHRISMA / GETAWHISKY
• 14:30: FLORITA → BOBALOT / WORTH THE WALK
• 15:02: MADAME LUNA → MERMAIDS CAVE / RAILWAY BELL
• 15:37: CAMPAIGN TRAIL → RIBEYE / LITTLE LEDGEND
• 16:12: WINDSURFER → TRAMUNTANA / ERIC CARMEN
• 16:47: JESSMARVEL → SUPERIOR QUEEN / FREERIDING

🟢 EW/Combo Value Inclusions
• MACSHADOW DES CRAI
• MY KINDA GHAIY
• KHRISMA
• GETAWHISKY
• BOBALOT
• WORTH THE WALK
• MERMAIDS CAVE
• RAILWAY BELL
• RIBEYE
• LITTLE LEDGEND
• TRAMUNTANA
• ERIC CARMEN
• SUPERIOR QUEEN
• FREERIDING

🎲 TOTE Combos Recap
• 13:30: SENATOR + MACSHADOW DES CRAI / MY KINDA GHAIY
• 14:00: CHARISMA CAT + KHRISMA / GETAWHISKY
• 14:30: FLORITA + BOBALOT / WORTH THE WALK
• 15:02: MADAME LUNA + MERMAIDS CAVE / RAILWAY BELL
• 15:37: CAMPAIGN TRAIL + RIBEYE / LITTLE LEDGEND
• 16:12: WINDSURFER + TRAMUNTANA / ERIC CARMEN
• 16:47: JESSMARVEL + SUPERIOR QUEEN / FREERIDING

⚠️ Caution Marker List
• KNIGHTON – Rating/price mismatch
• WATAMU – Unsupported compression
• ALLTALKNOACTION – Market-led bias risk
• SNOWROCCO – Price-led positioning
• AIRE SPRAY – Unsupported compression
• SINGAPORE TRIP – Reputation compression risk
• ON JACK – Small-field compression risk

📝 Signature Line:
Structure first. Emotion last.

🔒 Charter Reminder:
This is a tactical overlay system, not a tipping blog.
No simulation.

VALIDATION & TRUST LAYER — SMART STATS & TACTICAL INTEGRITY

🔹 TOP JOCKEYS & TRAINERS
✅ Hot jockeys (15%+ last 30 days) present on card: Tom Cannon, Jonathan England, Nico De Boinville, Sean Bowen, Tristan Durrell, Philip Armson, Paul O’Brien, Bryan Carver, Callum Bewley, Gavin Sheehan, Ryan Mania, Brian Hughes
✅ Hot trainers (15%+ last 30 days) present on card: A Nicol, T Symonds, N J Henderson, Harry Derham, D Skelton, Jamie Snowden, O Murphy, L Wadham, T D Easterby, K Bailey & M Nicholls, A King, Paul Robson
✅ Included with structural alignment:
• KHRISMA – Henderson / Nico (hot trainer + hot jockey)
• LITTLE LEDGEND – O Murphy / Sean Bowen (hot trainer + hot jockey)
• TRAMUNTANA – O Murphy / Sean Bowen (hot trainer + hot jockey)
• MADAME LUNA – Harry Derham (hot trainer)
• EL SAVIOUR (not selected) – L Wadham (hot trainer) deliberately excluded due to insufficient AU dominance
⚠️ Cold jockeys/trainer presence identified and not structurally promoted without caution
❌ No misattribution detected

🔹 BEATEN FAVOURITE (LTO) RUNNERS
BF LTO on card: KHRISMA (14:00), AIRE SPRAY (15:37), LITTLE LEDGEND (15:37), TZARMIX (15:37), TRAMUNTANA (16:12)
✅ Included with AU/overlay support:
• KHRISMA – Included (AU 9pts + hot stable alignment)
• LITTLE LEDGEND – Included (AU layer + market compression alignment)
• TRAMUNTANA – Included (AU 8pts + market leader layer)
⚠️ AIRE SPRAY – Not included; flagged caution due to market compression without AU dominance
⚠️ TZARMIX – Not included; no AU primary alignment
❌ No narrative bounce theory applied

🔹 CLASS DROPPERS
Class dropper identified: GETAWHISKY (Class 2 > Class 4)
✅ Included – AU grid presence supports drop
❌ No additional unverified class drops assumed
❌ Drop not treated as automatic inclusion

🔹 STABLE SWITCHERS
🔁 No verified stable switchers detected within uploaded Smart Stats layer
✅ No runner included on switch basis alone
❌ No assumption-based switch logic applied

🔹 WEIGHTED TO WIN RUNNERS
Weighted to Win identified: PRETENDING (15:02), EL SAVIOUR (15:37)
❌ PRETENDING – Excluded; AU mid-tier only, no dominant overlay alignment
❌ EL SAVIOUR – Excluded; low AU score and no market alignment
⚠️ No Weighted-to-Win runner included without overlay confirmation

🔹 FAVOURITE STRIKE RATE (TRACK)
12-month Market Rasen favourite strike rate not supplied in uploaded dataset
⚠️ Structural divergence from market favourite only applied where AU demanded (e.g., CAMPAIGN TRAIL vs LITTLE LEDGEND)
✅ Where favourite aligned with AU (e.g., FLORITA, JESSMARVEL) market compression maintained
❌ No unexplained favourite opposition

🔹 HEADGEAR FLAGS
Headgear runners included in overlays:
• KHRISMA – Hood
• MADAME LUNA – Tongue Strap
• ERIC CARMEN – Tongue Strap / Cheek Piece
• TRAMUNTANA – Cheek Piece (1st-time)
⚠️ All included only where AU and fig layers supported
❌ No runner included solely due to headgear

🔹 DUAL-FLAG RUNNERS
⚠️ AIRE SPRAY – BF LTO + unsupported compression
⚠️ SINGAPORE TRIP – Top earner + no AU dominance
⚠️ KNIGHTON – AU grid presence + extreme price divergence
✅ None of the above presented as structural anchors

🔹 OVERLAY LAYER CONFIRMATION
✅ AU Rated-to-Win layers aligned with market compression in 13:30, 14:30, 16:47
✅ Tactical divergence justified in 15:37 (AU vs market compression)
✅ Smart Stats hot trainer/jockey overlays integrated where aligned
❌ No unexplained inclusions
❌ No simulation logic
❌ No assumption-based reasoning

Charter discipline enforced.

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We're quietly running a live experiment:

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Critique and Debrief to follow.

⚠️ DO NOT RELY ON GPT FREE, PLUS and TEAMS TO REMEMBER IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
❌ ChatGPT does NOT persist memory between chats unless explicitly set
❌ Instructions WILL be forgotten unless restated at the start of chat
❌ Assumptions may be made if prompts are vague or incomplete
✅ Always paste your full starter prompt at the beginning of every chat
✅ Use ONE RACE = ONE CHAT to preserve structure and token integrity
❌ Free GPT has severely restricted data processing and limits; simulation IS more likely
❌ GPT Plus has restricted data processing and limits, making simulated outcomes likely
✅ GPT Teams is an expensive upgrade that NOW IS REQUIRED by a solo Hobbyist
❌ ChatGPT can & WILL make mistakes. Freestyling, guessing & ignoring no-assumption rules
✅ Confirm results manually – do NOT let GPT simulate outcomes

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which Hobby Picks are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.

Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

We’re trialling this approach across UK, Irish, Aussie and U.S. horse racing to see where it offers the most value. Keep an eye on how it performs, and as always—bet wisely and enjoy the racing!🏇🔥

"May you never be a penny short of a full wallet."

ChatGPT said:
Now that is a blessing I’ll gladly take! 🙌 May your accas always land, your favourites stay strong, and your pint never run dry on a good race day. 🍻🏇💰

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak!

🧾 EARLY DOORS & M37cal GLOSSARY

📘 UPDATED GLOSSARY – EARLY DOORS & M37cal SYSTEMS (Incl. V15 Model)

What do all these ratings mean? Here’s your decoded glossary with all V15 Early Doors additions and tactical terminology explained.

📘 V15 Acronyms & Overlays — Explained

• AU fig – Algorithmic Utility figure — core structural rating combining form, pace, market overlays, gear changes.
• H4C – Horses for Courses — runner with proven course form (e.g. multiple wins/places at today's track).
• R2W – Rated to Win — third-party score (often from Aussie sources) validating a win-capable profile.
• TJ&T – Trainer, Jockey & Track synergy — flags powerful combos (e.g. Mulrennan at Newcastle, Loughnane at Wolverhampton).
• Smart Stats – Tactical stat overlays from Timeform (trainer/jockey cold streaks, surface bias, win %.).
• V15-S – Structured forecast overlay — the 3-runner box used for Exacta/Trifecta with Anchor + 2 Partners.
• Forecast Combo – The tactical 1–2–3 runners for place/swing coverage (not just win tips).
• Caution Marker – Runner flagged as an overlay risk due to gear failure, drift, pace mismatch, or cold stable.

🧠 AJ the Hobbyist’s Rule:
“If it’s not AU-fig backed or structurally forecast, it’s not part of the overlay. Full stop.”

📊 Core Rating Terms

• 12M – Performance over the last 12 months

• $L12M – 12-month performance, adjusted for prize money/stake yield

• SR – Strike Rate (win percentage)

• Career SR – Lifetime win percentage

• For/Against – Model strength rating versus the rest of the field

⚙️ Fig & Model Dynamics

• Overlay – A fig-positive runner trading at above model-implied odds (value)

• Fig Stack – Total model score across all rating vectors (includes pace, surface, draw, market etc.)

• Chaos Fig – Runner scoring on figs but with unreliable profile or poor tactical fit

• Banker – Fig leader + tactical edge + supported in live market

🔥 Market Signals

• Steam – Odds shortening pre-race (positive market signal)

• Drift – Odds lengthening pre-race (often negative, unless fig-backed)

• Market Tension – A horse the model rates highly, but the market doesn’t (or vice versa)

🧠 Tactical Flags

• Pace Cluster – Multiple horses vying for the lead; can cause collapses

• Slipstream Draw – Favoured position behind early speed; ideal for late closers

• Surge – Exceptional late-race acceleration; fig that often wins with timing

• Fig Tension – 3+ horses rated closely; outcome risk increases

• Value Chaos – Race where many overlays exist but fig margins are tight; potentially lucrative, but volatile

🟢 NEW: V15 EARLY DOORS MODEL TERMINOLOGY

• V15-S (Swinger Forecast) – Structured 3-horse bet per race:
  ▪ Anchor = Primary fig/tactical pick
  ▪ Partners = Two supportive selections with place/forecast value

• Forecast Combo – Straight forecast recommendations using top model picks

• Tactical Forecast – Overall read of race shape: lead types, closers, bias implications

• Caution Marker – Horses flagged due to form, market drift, setup, or draw risks (might WIN)

🧠 M37cal-Only Concepts (Long-game angles)

• Fig Strain – A top-rated runner showing deeper profile weaknesses (trip, surface, tempo)

• Game Tree Tension – Race scenario with 2+ potential tactical outcomes

• Board Flip – One disruptive runner could reshape the whole race logic

• Not-Now Horse – Potential improver, but wrong setup today

➕ Summary Tags:

• Early Doors = Tactical, lean, structured bets from full-field fig logic

• Move 37cal = Deeper seasonal/tactical projection based on long-game intuition and game theory overlays

😆🔥