Monday Racing Bonanza: Value Bets, Stamina Tests & Big-Field Handicaps!

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
19th to 25th January 2025
Starting Bankroll £30 (28 days)
1st Top Up Bankroll £30 (10 days)
2nd Top Up Bankroll £30 23/2/25

Wk 1 £35 Wk 2 £32.01 Wk 3 -£18.12
Wk 4 £30.31 WK 5 £33.76

WEEK 6 £20.84 (2nd top-up)
Sun - -£7.50
Mon - £5.42
Tue - £
Wed - £
Thrs - £
Fri - £
Sat - £

Note from Coldjack: Yesterday's Trixie & Patent followed a familiar pattern 'nearly but failed to deliver'. With the addition of Pedigree form to each runner analysed should sharpen up the picks. I hope for far more and there will be, when we go yet again!

Betfair Sportsbook odds were placed at 21:20 Sunday
Trixie @4 Lines
Coffeys Forge | Park Annonciade | Mighty Soldier
Stake £4.00 (4 x £1.00)
Returns £132.25 returned £nowt

(Each Way) Patent @14 Lines
Im For Home | Wearelongterm | One And Only
Stake £3.50 (14 x £0.25)
Returns £94.37 returned £2.08

Stakes £7.50 Winning £00.00 (P/L) losing £5.42
Modest returns for the 'Trickey Trixie'
Patent punting for the 'zsar bomba' of booms!
(1pt = £1 Pick Your Own Point Level & Runners)

Critique and Debrief: Ayr & Punchestown – 24th February 2025

1️⃣ Assessment of Structured Bets (Trixie & Patent)

Trixie #1 (The Consistency Play)

• Selections: Wearelongterm (16:35 Ayr), One And Only (16:43 Punchestown), I’m For Home (16:10 Punchestown)

• Returns: £2.08 (Loss)

• Breakdown:

  • Wearelongterm (16:35 Ayr) – 5th (Failed to place, underperformed)

  • One And Only (16:43 Punchestown) – 2nd (Good run, but couldn't win)

  • I’m For Home (16:10 Punchestown) – 4th (Ran well but missed the places)

✅ One And Only justified the selection – solid second place.
❌ Wearelongterm & I’m For Home fell short of expectations – both were in contention but didn’t land a place, causing the Trixie to fail.

🔍 Key Learning:
While the selections were solid on paper, their race-day performance exposed limitations. Wearelongterm and I’m For Home had form but couldn't quite deliver in testing conditions.

Trixie #2 (The All-Ways Patent - Higher Risk)

• Selections: Mighty Soldier (16:43 Punchestown), Park Annonciade (16:35 Ayr), Coffeys Forge (16:10 Punchestown)

• Returns: £0.00 (Total loss)

• Breakdown:

  • Mighty Soldier (16:43 Punchestown) – Unplaced

  • Park Annonciade (16:35 Ayr) – 4th (Just missed the places)

  • Coffeys Forge (16:10 Punchestown) – Unplaced

❌ All selections failed to deliver, highlighting the unpredictability of exposed handicappers.
🔍 Key Learning:

• Coffeys Forge was a major disappointment—didn’t run to the standard expected.

• Park Annonciade ran well but lacked finishing speed—perhaps best suited to a slightly shorter trip.

• Mighty Soldier showed little improvement despite the expectation of progression.

🔄 Suggested Refinements for Future Trixie & Patent Selections

1. Avoid "exposed" handicappers in riskier bets – Trixie #2 included multiple runners with visible limitations. Future focus should be on progressive types or horses dropping in class.

2. Place-heavy strategy for Consistency Trixie – While One And Only placed, the others didn’t. If odds allow, consider placing an each-way Trixie to return something even when only placing.

3. Market Movements & Late Check – Some selections drifted heavily before the off, a potential warning sign. Late market checks could help switch out weak drifters.

2️⃣ Race-by-Race Breakdown

🏇 Ayr Review

14:25 Ayr – 3m Handicap Chase

• Pre-race pick: Don Brocco (Lost), Senor Lombardy (Lost), Breeze Of Wind (Won ✅)

• Actual Result: Breeze Of Wind 1st, Busty Boy 2nd, Ballydisco 3rd

• Key Takeaways:
  ✅ Breeze Of Wind wins as predicted, confirming form turnaround.
  ❌ Don Brocco struggled with weight rise – regression after strong last race.
  🔍 Key Learning:

• Weight rises after wins need closer attention.

• Stamina in testing conditions remains critical at Ayr – Don Brocco folded after early pressure.

16:35 Ayr – 2m4f Handicap Hurdle

• Pre-race pick: Wearelongterm (Lost), Park Annonciade (4th, just missed a place), The Jeweller’s Pet (Won ✅)

• Actual Result: The Jeweller’s Pet 1st, Gege Ville 2nd, Eloi Du Puy 3rd, Park Annonciade 4th

• Key Takeaways:
  ✅ The Jeweller’s Pet confirmed its progressive profile, defying a step up in class.
  ❌ Wearelongterm ran no race – possibly flattered by previous form.
  🔍 Key Learning:

• Class rises need to be factored in – Park Annonciade ran well but found this level slightly tougher.

• The Jeweller’s Pet had an upward trajectory—future races should identify progressing handicappers rather than stagnant ones like Wearelongterm.

🏇 Punchestown Review

16:10 Punchestown – 2m4f Handicap Hurdle

• Pre-race pick: I’m For Home (4th), Blue Reed (2nd ✅), Coffeys Forge (Lost ❌)

• Actual Result: Without Exception 1st, Blue Reed 2nd, Joe’s Turn 3rd, I’m For Home 4th

• Key Takeaways:
  ✅ Blue Reed ran to form and justified support.
  ❌ Coffeys Forge ran poorly, proving difficult to trust despite trainer form.
  🔍 Key Learning:

• Fitness still matters despite recent runs – Coffeys Forge may need a break or softer competition.

• Market support matters – Blue Reed was well-backed and ran accordingly.

16:43 Punchestown – 2m4f Handicap Hurdle

• Pre-race pick: Mighty Soldier (Lost), True Destiny (Lost), One And Only (2nd ✅)

• Actual Result: Johnny Cakes 1st, One And Only 2nd, King In Love 3rd

• Key Takeaways:
  ✅ One And Only placed, proving consistency.
  ❌ Mighty Soldier didn’t progress as expected.
  🔍 Key Learning:

• Avoid exposed handicap types without visible improvement signs—Mighty Soldier looked good last time but stagnated.

• Tactics matter – One And Only was ridden more prominently and stayed on well.

📊 Key Learnings & Strategy Adjustments

1️⃣ Handicappers Need Progression to Justify Risk

• The likes of Coffeys Forge & Mighty Soldier failed to take expected steps forward.

• Future bets should focus on lightly raced horses in handicaps.
  2️⃣ Market Movements Matter

• Blue Reed was well-supported late & placed.

• Drifters like Coffeys Forge & Mighty Soldier performed poorly.

• Tracking odds closer to the off may allow last-minute swaps.
  3️⃣ Class & Weight Are Huge Factors

• Don Brocco (up 8lb) struggled → weight rises should be treated with caution.

• The Jeweller’s Pet improved despite class rise → track specialists & course form matter.
  4️⃣ Each-Way Betting Should Be Considered for Trixies

• With several second places (One And Only, Blue Reed), an each-way approach may minimise losses.

📈 Actionable Betting Adjustments

1️⃣ Track late market movements before finalising bets
2️⃣ Avoid backing "exposed" handicappers unless they have a new angle (class drop, headgear, etc.)
3️⃣ Prioritise lightly raced improvers over older, more exposed runners
4️⃣ Consider each-way Trixies & Patent bets to improve chances of returns
5️⃣ Factor in weight rises more carefully in handicap selections

🚀 FINAL VERDICT:

🔸 The Jeweller’s Pet (WON) & One And Only (PLACED) were strong picks.
🔸 Too many exposed handicappers in structured bets led to failures.
🔸 Refining the selection process by focusing on "progression" over "past reliability" will improve results.
🔸 A more dynamic approach, including last-minute market monitoring, will give better insights.

💡 NEXT STEPS:

• Apply selection refinements to the next Trixie & Patent strategy.

• Adjust for market movements & place betting where necessary.

• Let’s build on today’s learnings & push for a bigger winning day! 🏇🔥

Pre-racing Predictions

My electricity is scheduled to be turned off between 9:00 AM and 5:30 PM on Monday, which is why I published this on Sunday night. Watch out for non-runners, and best of luck on Monday!

🏇 Trixie Bet #1: The Consistency Play 🏇

Objective: Low-risk, high-probability selections based on strong recent form, reliability, and minimal downside risk.

🔥 Selections:

1️⃣ Wearelongterm (16:35 Ayr)

• Trainer: Dianne Sayer | Jockey: Henry Brooke

• Recent Form: 2nd at Wetherby (3m, heavy) 19 days ago

• Key Factors:
  ✅ Progressive form, lightly raced for an 8-y-o.
  ✅ Proven stamina – ran well over 3m in soft ground.
  ✅ Trainer has a solid record with staying hurdlers at Ayr.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆ (Strong form, small risk).

2️⃣ One And Only (16:43 Punchestown)

• Trainer: Oliver McKiernan | Jockey: Phillip Enright

• Recent Form: 1st and 2nd in last two runs at 2m4f

• Key Factors:
  ✅ Consistent recent form – winner at Cork, close 2nd next time.
  ✅ Handles soft ground and today’s trip perfectly.
  ✅ Trainer in decent form, jockey has a good record on him.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆ (Reliable selection, minimal downside).

3️⃣ I'm For Home (16:10 Punchestown)

• Trainer: R. K. Watson | Jockey: M. P. O'Connor

• Recent Form: Strong 6th at Fairyhouse (2m3½f) after layoff

• Key Factors:
  ✅ Improving fitness after recent run, now better handicapped.
  ✅ Has past form at this level & conditions.
  ✅ Well-placed in a winnable race against weaker opposition.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆ (Good chance with fitness edge).

🎯 Bet Type: Trixie (4 total bets: 3 doubles + 1 treble)

✅ Expected Outcome:

• 2 winners: Covers the stake or small profit.

• 3 winners: Big profit, multipliers in play.

🏇 Trixie Bet #2: The All-Ways Patent (Higher-Risk Play) 🏇

Objective: Value selections between 5/1 and 12/1, with question marks but strong upside potential.

🔥 Selections:

1️⃣ Mighty Soldier (16:43 Punchestown)

• Trainer: James Andrew Fahey | Jockey: K. C. Sexton

• Recent Form: 3rd of 17 in competitive handicap at Punchestown

• Risk Factors:
  🔸 Lightly raced but progressing fast.
  🔸 Needs to improve again, but stamina proven.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★☆☆ (Has ability, but a slight unknown).

2️⃣ Park Annonciade (16:35 Ayr)

• Trainer: Stuart Crawford | Jockey: J. J. Slevin

• Recent Form: 3rd over C&D last time, strong race

• Risk Factors:
  🔸 Well-treated in the handicap, but hasn’t won recently.
  🔸 Slight stamina concern, but has run well over this trip before.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★☆☆ (Capable, but needs to prove himself).

3️⃣ Coffeys Forge (16:10 Punchestown)

• Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: D. J. Gilligan

• Recent Form: Strong 2nd at Navan (2m5½f, heavy)

• Risk Factors:
  🔸 Could be peaking at the right time.
  🔸 Market move will tell a lot.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆ (Stronger chance than the others).

🎯 Bet Type: Patent (7 bets: 3 singles, 3 doubles, 1 treble)
✅ Expected Outcome:

• 1 winner: Covers most of the stake.

• 2 winners: Good profit.

• 3 winners: Massive return, proper payout.

🔥 Final Betting Plan Summary:

✔ Trixie Bet #1 (Low-Risk):
📌 Wearelongterm, One And Only, I’m For Home (Solid form horses, consistent).

✔ Trixie Bet #2 (Higher-Risk):
📌 Mighty Soldier, Park Annonciade, Coffeys Forge (Value plays, more upside).

💰 If both Trixies land, we’re in for a good payday. Let’s cash in! 🚀🏇

Gamble Responsibly! Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which Hobby Picks (my denture has finally arrived 😆) are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.
Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

Race-by-Race Predictions

🏇 14:25 Ayr (3m Handicap Chase)

1️⃣ Win Selection: Don Brocco

Trainer: Gary Rutherford | Jockey: Sean Quinlan
Pedigree: Shirocco (GER) x Brantingham Breeze – A stoutly bred gelding who appreciates staying trips and soft ground.
Key Form: Broke his chasing maiden impressively at Carlisle three weeks ago, dictating from the front and staying on powerfully. The 8 lb rise in the weights is a challenge but justified by the authority of that success.
Why: Confidence is high after that Carlisle win, and with the same jockey aboard, he should be able to assert his authority again. The market respects his chances, and he’s one of the more progressive types in the lineup.

2️⃣ 2nd Place Prediction: Senor Lombardy

Trainer: Nicky Richards | Jockey: Elizabeth Gale
Pedigree: Milan x Killoughey Babe (IRE) – A staying-bred veteran who relishes testing ground.
Key Form: Runner-up at Wetherby on his first run under Rules since March 2022, proving that ability remains. Fell early at Kelso last time, but that’s easily forgiven.
Why: If he can reproduce his Wetherby form, he’s a huge player. He carries top weight, but his class should carry him into contention late on.

3️⃣ 3rd Place Prediction: Breeze Of Wind

Trainer: Stuart Coltherd | Jockey: Sam Coltherd
Pedigree: Arctic Cosmos (USA) x Mite Be Cloudy (IRE) – Stamina-packed breeding, but not the most consistent performer.
Key Form: A four-time chase winner last season but has struggled for form this campaign. That said, his mark is easing, and he has been running respectably in tougher races.
Why: His best form puts him right in the mix, and the market suggests some interest. With a good ride, he could easily challenge for the places.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Skyhill

Trainer: Alison Hamilton | Jockey: Jamie Hamilton
Pedigree: Gold Well x Classic Mari (IRE) – Strong National Hunt lines, well suited to staying trips.
Key Form: A C&D winner who showed a revival at Kelso in December, bouncing back after an eight-month layoff. Finished fourth at Catterick since, but the race didn’t suit.
Why: At 12 years old, he’s no spring chicken, but his best days have come at Ayr over this trip. If he can dictate early, he’s got the pedigree and stamina to stay on for a place at decent odds.

🏇 15:05 Punchestown (2m7f Maiden Hurdle)

1️⃣ Win Selection: Mayo Shirocco

Trainer: Colin Bowe | Jockey: D. J. O’Keeffe
Pedigree: Shirocco (GER) x Lady Legacy (IRE) – Well-bred staying type, related to solid staying performers.
Key Form: Won a point-to-point impressively on debut in October, suggesting strong stamina reserves.
Why: Point-to-point winners tend to transition well to maiden hurdles over staying trips. With top connections and a strong pedigree, she looks the most promising unexposed runner. Market confidence would further solidify her chances.

2️⃣ 2nd Place Prediction: Creadan Grace

Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: Sam Ewing
Pedigree: Kingston Hill x Tenerife Pearl (IRE) – Half-sister to the useful 3m chaser Creadan Grae.
Key Form: A debutante from a top yard. Related to staying chasers, so this distance should be within range.
Why: Gordon Elliott’s horses are often well-prepared first time out, and if there’s a positive market move, she’ll be a major contender. The step up in trip on debut is a strong sign of confidence.

3️⃣ 3rd Place Prediction: Milanaway

Trainer: Denis Hogan | Jockey: D. King
Pedigree: Milan x Stashedaway (IRE) – Bred for stamina but yet to fully deliver over hurdles.
Key Form: Second at Tipperary over 3m in November but disappointing since. If she rediscovers that form, she’s a leading contender for a place.
Why: Has experience over hurdles and has shown ability at this distance. If the ground is testing, her past performances suggest she’ll stay on late.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Affinity Rock

Trainer: Cian Michael Collins | Jockey: D. J. Gilligan
Pedigree: Affinisea (IRE) x Hill Rock (IRE) – Stamina-focused breeding from a winning point-to-pointer.
Key Form: Finished a modest sixth on debut in a Naas maiden hurdle over 2m3½f but should improve for the experience.
Why: Point-to-point winners often step up over hurdles, and this extra distance should bring out further improvement. A likely stayer at a decent price.

🏇 15:15 Plumpton (3m1f Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Win Selection: Sole Solution

Trainer: Charlie Deutsch | Jockey: Venetia Williams
Pedigree: Shantou x Loughaneala (IRE) – Stamina-heavy pedigree, well-suited for this trip.
Key Form: Won well last time out at Sandown (19.8f, heavy) when making all in a gutsy front-running display. Lightly raced and has been improving with each start over hurdles.
Why: The likely pace angle in this contest, Plumpton suits front-runners, and with the step up in trip likely to bring further progress, he’s a strong candidate for a repeat victory.

2️⃣ 2nd Place Prediction: Patriotik

Trainer: Isabel Williams | Jockey: Evan Williams
Pedigree: Martaline x Got Sun (FR) – Classy staying pedigree, suited to longer trips.
Key Form: Fifth in the Silver Trophy at Chepstow and finished second in a strong Aintree race on Boxing Day. Unsuited by the sharper test at Ascot last time but shaped well.
Why: This extra distance should play to his strengths, and he has some strong form in the book this season. A big player with the right stamina test.

3️⃣ 3rd Place Prediction: Hititi

Trainer: Joe Tizzard | Jockey: Harry Kimber
Pedigree: Great Pretender x Valence (FR) – Proven stamina, handles soft ground well.
Key Form: Runner-up in this race last year from a similar mark. Consistent and returned to hurdling effectively when second at Exeter last time.
Why: He’s well handicapped and reliable. While he might find one or two unexposed types too good, he should run his usual solid race and be in the mix for a place.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Kamsinas

Trainer: J. J. Burke | Jockey: Jamie Snowden
Pedigree: Martaline x Kalypsa D'estruval (FR) – French-bred stayer with class potential.
Key Form: Won a Grade 2 as a novice and landed a handicap at Aintree on return. Shaped well when fourth at Haydock and worth trying at this trip.
Why: Has shown enough ability at shorter to suggest staying trips will suit. If he stays, he could outrun his odds and be a serious each-way contender.

🏇 15:35 Punchestown (3m1f Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Win Selection: Rokathir

Trainer: Henry de Bromhead | Jockey: D. J. O'Keeffe
Pedigree: Muhtathir x Robinka (FR) – Stamina-oriented breeding with French influence.
Key Form: Was running well on chasing debut before falling two out at Punchestown last month. Lightly raced and now reverts to hurdles on his handicap debut.
Why: He remains unexposed and could improve significantly now switched back to hurdles. If he reproduces the form he was showing in his chase run, he will be tough to beat.

2️⃣ 2nd Place Prediction: Plain Or Battered

Trainer: P. J. Rothwell | Jockey: S. D. Torrens
Pedigree: Mahler x Road To Pearls – A stayer with a solid pedigree for longer trips.
Key Form: Won over 3m on heavy ground at Wexford last year. Pulled up last time at Limerick but had been shaping well before that.
Why: The addition of first-time blinkers could be key to rekindling his best form. He’s capable of staying all day and could be a big danger if bouncing back.

3️⃣ 3rd Place Prediction: Heroes Rise

Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: Sam Ewing
Pedigree: Sandmason x Turbine Hill (IRE) – Pedigree suggests he will enjoy this stamina test.
Key Form: Third at Fairyhouse over 2m4f last time but was outpaced. Has run well at this trip before.
Why: Returning to a staying trip is a major plus, and his trainer has a strong record with progressive types in handicaps.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Lucky Viv

Trainer: Michael Barry | Jockey: J. P. Shinnick
Pedigree: Yeats (IRE) x Tiffiny Gale (IRE) – A thorough stayer, bred for soft-ground races over long distances.
Key Form: Won over 2m7f at this track last time, taking advantage of a reduced mark. Up 7 lbs but still well treated.
Why: Yeats progeny tend to get better with age, and she could be on an upward curve. If improving again, she has a live chance at decent odds.

🏇 16:10 Punchestown (2m4f Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Win Selection: I'm For Home

Trainer: R. K. Watson | Jockey: M. P. O'Connor
Pedigree: Altruistic (IRE) x Rosshill Opera (IRE) – Stamina-bred hurdler with scope for improvement.
Key Form: Likely needed the run when sixth at Fairyhouse over a similar trip after a three-month break. Has shown strong past form at this level.
Why: Now fitter and on a good handicap mark, he looks primed to go well. His best performances have come in similar conditions, and if he builds on his last run, he should be a big player.

2️⃣ 2nd Place Prediction: Blue Reed

Trainer: Cian Michael Collins | Jockey: C. P. Millar
Pedigree: Brave Mansonnien (FR) x Carambole (FR) – Decent staying pedigree, has shaped well this season.
Key Form: Finished second at Fairyhouse last month, running well in soft conditions. Tongue strap reapplied for this run.
Why: He has been steadily improving and looks competitive based on his last effort. He should be in the mix again if he reproduces that form.

3️⃣ 3rd Place Prediction: Coffeys Forge

Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: D. J. Gilligan
Pedigree: Yeats (IRE) x Blue Berlais (IRE) – Proven stayer who enjoys testing ground.
Key Form: Solid second at Navan last time over a slightly longer trip. Cheekpieces remain on.
Why: Another consistent performer who is well suited to this trip and conditions. He should be fighting for a place again.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Duce Bigalow

Trainer: Seamus Neville | Jockey: Philip Donovan
Pedigree: Pour Moi (IRE) x Bobbina (IRE) – A lightly raced type with potential for improvement.
Key Form: Hasn’t shown much in maiden hurdles but is making his handicap debut, which could bring significant improvement.
Why: With a lenient opening mark and a step up in trip, he could be an interesting outsider. Worth considering at a price.

🏇 16:35 Ayr (2m4f Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Win Selection: Wearelongterm

Trainer: Dianne Sayer | Jockey: Henry Brooke
Pedigree: Milan x Fair Ina (IRE) – Stamina-bred gelding with improvement potential.
Key Form: Produced his best effort last time when runner-up at Wetherby over 3m on heavy ground, chasing home a well-treated rival.
Why: Despite remaining a maiden, he's lightly raced for his age and has room for improvement. His recent form suggests he's capable of getting his head in front soon, and this contest offers a good opportunity.

2️⃣ 2nd Place Prediction: Park Annonciade

Trainer: Stuart Crawford | Jockey: J. J. Slevin
Pedigree: Masked Marvel x Yellow Ball (FR) – A fair hurdler with a strong stamina influence.
Key Form: Switched back to hurdles last time and ran well to finish third over C&D in a stronger race than this.
Why: A proven performer at this trip and track, he looks well treated based on that effort and should be a serious player once again.

3️⃣ 3rd Place Prediction: The Jeweller’s Pet

Trainer: Ian Duncan | Jockey: Alan Doyle
Pedigree: Libertarian x Westies Pet (IRE) – Lightly raced and on the upgrade.
Key Form: Won here last time out in soft conditions, travelling strongly throughout.
Why: He steps up in class but has been improving steadily. If he continues on this trajectory, he should be competitive despite a rise in weights.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Gege Ville

Trainer: Nicky Richards | Jockey: Conor Rabbitt
Pedigree: Protektor (GER) x Auvloo Ville (FR) – A hurdler with scope for improvement after a long layoff.
Key Form: Won a handicap hurdle at Haydock in December after a 20-month absence, overcoming trouble in running.
Why: He's clearly had some issues, but he remains unexposed and could progress further with only his seventh career start. Worth keeping an eye on.

🏇 16:43 Punchestown (2m4f Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Win Selection: Mighty Soldier

Trainer: James Andrew Fahey | Jockey: K. C. Sexton
Pedigree: Soldier Of Fortune x Watercolours (IRE)
Key Form:

• Improved significantly last time when 3rd of 17 at Punchestown (2m3f, heavy), faring best of those held up.

• Lightly raced and still has room for improvement.

Why? Mighty Soldier has been progressing steadily and looks primed for another big run. His previous effort suggests he’s capable of landing a blow in this field.

2️⃣ 2nd Place Prediction: True Destiny

Trainer: Noel C. Kelly | Jockey: J. S. McGarvey
Pedigree: Mastercraftsman (IRE) x Holy Dazzle
Key Form:

• Back-to-back runner-up finishes over this trip, including a strong second at Sligo in October.

• Has been knocking on the door and deserves a win soon.

Why? If he can reproduce his recent form, he should be right in the mix again.

3️⃣ 3rd Place Prediction: One And Only

Trainer: Oliver McKiernan | Jockey: Phillip Enright
Pedigree: Califet (FR) x Shuil A Hocht (IRE)
Key Form:

• Winner at Cork in December and followed it up with a good 2nd of 19 next time out over 2m4f on soft ground.

• Consistent and stays the trip well.

Why? He’s been very solid and remains competitive at this level.

🎯 Dark Horse: Butchers Bill

Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: Sam Ewing

• Makes his handicap debut after showing promise in novice hurdles.

• Trainer and jockey combo suggest potential for improvement.

• Market check advised – if there's late money, he could go very close.

Verdict: Mighty Soldier to land the win, but expect True Destiny and One And Only to be battling him all the way. Watch out for Butchers Bill on handicap debut.

Introducing the Pedigree Pick: A New Angle for Smarter Selections

For those following our daily race analysis, you’ll notice a new addition to our selections—The Pedigree Pick. This isn’t just about finding the best-bred horse on paper; it’s a strategic insight into which runners have the strongest bloodlines for today’s conditions.

How Does the Pedigree Pick Work?

Each day, we’ll highlight a runner whose breeding suggests hidden potential, untapped improvement, or suitability for the race conditions. This is based on:
✅ Sire/Dam Influence – Do they produce winners on today’s surface and trip?
✅ Progeny Trends – Has the family improved with racing experience?
✅ Under-the-Radar Value – If the clear best-bred horse is a short-priced favourite, we’ll find a well-bred contender at a bigger price.

How to Use It in Betting Decisions

🔹 If the Pedigree Pick is unexposed, it may outrun its odds—a great option for place markets or forecasts.
🔹 If it has proven ability, the pedigree can point to improvement—especially in maidens, novices, and handicaps.
🔹 If it’s a longer price, it may be worth a small each-way bet if conditions are in its favour.

We’re trialling this approach across UK, Irish, and U.S. racing to see where it offers the most value. Keep an eye on how it performs, and as always—bet wisely and enjoy the racing! 🏇🔥

"May you never be a penny short of a full wallet."

ChatGPT said:

Now that is a blessing I’ll gladly take! 🙌 May your accas always land, your favourites stay strong, and your pint never run dry on a good race day. 🍻🏇💰

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥