Newcastle 17 Nov 2025 – V15 Overlay Blog | Tactical Forecasts + Smart Stats Integration

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
19th to 25th January 2025
Starting Bankroll £30
5th March 2025 top-up total £90
Wk 1 £35 Wk 2 £32.01 Wk 3 £18.12
Wk 4 £30.31 WK 5 £33.76 Wk 6 £20.39
Wk 7 £37.14 Wk 8 £21.22 Wk9 £138.37 Wk 10 £119.82 wk 11 £58.42 wk 12 £29.47 wk 13 £4.69

20/4/25 4th top-up £30
WEEK £34.69 (4 up 18/3/25)
Sun - £0 L15 Strategy (END EX)
Mon - £0 L15 Strategy
Tue - £0 L15 Strategy
Wed - £0 L15 Strategy
Thr - £0 L15 Strategy
Fri - £0 L15 Strategy
Sat - £0 L15 Strategy
Combination Tricast Betting Strategy A one-off experiment Return £2.50 25/2/25

Note from Coldjack — V17 Review. After a wild ride with Lucky 15s, the experiment has officially closed. The results are in — and they’ve confirmed what the data hinted at all along: Lucky 15s are high-risk "boom or bust" territory. Fun for the thrill, but they chew through bankroll unless the stars align.

I pushed GPT to its limits (both logically and literally!), testing strategies that most punters wouldn't dare simulate, and it delivered some sharp lessons:

"Yankees are the silent assassins. Lucky 15s are fireworks — bright, loud, and mostly miss the mark."

You weren’t wasting your time. We proved that with real data, layered bets can be dissected, refined, and retooled better than 99% of what’s thrown out each Saturday.

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥

Yankee (x11) (now significantly stronger)
ROI: +38.37% Profit: +£107.64 3rd quarter

✅ AJ the Hobbyist Comment – GPT 5 Pro Upgrade Implications
Due to constant back-end updates and unpredictable behaviour introduced by the GPT-4 to GPT-4o and GPT-5 transition, the V15 Early Doors model is now classified as an:
🔧 EXPERIMENTAL STRATEGY 📉 Final steps redevelopment status.
🚫 Caution for Real-Money Betting 👉 Only stake real money on any V15-based models unless every pick has been manually verified against live market, fig, and stable overlays.

🧪 Want to Help Build the System?

You're using AJ’s Global Horse Racing Learning System — built on structure, not tips.
We're quietly running a live experiment:

• Logging results (privately)

• Contact: coldjack(at)protonmail.com

  • Improving false favourite detection

  • Fine-tuning Dutching & TBP overlays with real user input
    💡 Join the experiment here:
    👉 https://chatgpt.com/g/g-KI2KUkacL-horse-racing-expert
    🛡️ Private. Anonymous. No accounts. No data is shared.
    All decisions stay yours. We just get sharper — together.
    Let’s build slowly. One disciplined user at a time.

🐎 EARLY DOORS | False Favourites & Layered Betting System (LBS)

📍 Newcastle (AW) | Monday 17 November 2025

All races reviewed. LBS opportunities locked to 3 races. Max exposure applied.

Race 1 – 15:35 Newcastle (AW) | 1m2f Handicap (Class 2) [7 Run]

🔍 Market Shape

• Co-favourites: Bragbor (3.0), Savvy Victory (3.25)

• Nebras and Teumessias Fox joint 3rd favs (5.5)

• No huge outliers or outsiders; compact top 5

• No N/Rs — 7 runners total (LBS not eligible)

✅ Is This a System Race?

Yes — solid market formation with clear favourite(s), strong form lines, and valid computer splits
LBS not in play due to field size

🟥 False Favourite Check

Candidate: Bragbor (3.0)

• Smart Stats: Stable switcher (G Scott ➝ R A Fahey), no class drop

• Computer Tips: Top-rated (12 pts) with widespread model backing

• Jockey: Jonny Peate (Cold Jockey – 49 rides without win)

• Trainer: R A Fahey — Top Newcastle Trainer (last 5 years: 77 wins), but not in Hot Trainers currently

• Concerns:

  • Stable switch without a class drop

  • Jockey cold and not among top AW riders

  • Strong rivals with proven class/figures

Verdict: ✅ False Favourite

Value Alternatives:

• Nebras (5.5) — lightly raced, cheekpieces return, Gosden yard, solid comp tip support (7 pts)

• Savvy Victory (3.25) — consistent in pattern company, carries weight but backed by hot trainer (S Woods) and well treated (104 ➝ 98 OR)

🟨 LBS Opportunity

❌ No LBS candidates – Field size 7 (below threshold)

Race 2 – 16:10 Newcastle (AW) | 7f Novice (2yo) [5 Run]

🔍 Market Shape

• Fav: My Love Is King (1.73)

• 2nd Fav: Ilraawi (2.38)

• Rest 19.0–51.0

✅ Is This a System Race?

No — Too small a field for any overlay strategy, and novice event offers low-quality form angles

🟥 False Favourite Check

Candidate: My Love Is King (1.73)

• Computer Tips: Well supported across models

• Trainer: Not listed among hot or cold; little context

• Concerns:

  • Nothing to oppose with: second fav not close enough on merit

  • Only a 5-runner field, market likely accurate

Verdict: ✅ Legit Favourite

🟨 LBS Opportunity

❌ No LBS candidates – Field size 5

Race 3 – 16:40 Newcastle (AW) | 7f Nursery Handicap (Class 5) [7 Run]

🔍 Market Shape

• Fav: Boy Named Sioux (3.0)

• Close behind: Mr Wonka (3.5), Light The Night Up (4.2)

• Illy’s Roo notable drifter (7.5); others 23+

✅ Is This a System Race?

Yes — Good shape for FF check
LBS not eligible (7-runner)

🟥 False Favourite Check

Candidate: Boy Named Sioux (3.0)

• Computer Tips: 3rd on model score (6 pts) — behind Illy's Roo (9 pts) and Archangel Josepi (7 pts)

• Trainer: R A Fahey — historically strong at Newcastle but not in Hot Trainers now

• Concerns:

  • Stronger model support for others

  • Jockey (Jack Garritty) not among hot performers

  • Lack of compelling stats angle or headgear tweak

Verdict: ✅ False Favourite

Value Alternatives:

• Illy’s Roo (7.5) — model top score (9 pts), fit, and under radar in the market

• Archangel Josepi (34) — long odds but model-backed (7 pts) and drawn well

🟨 LBS Opportunity

❌ No LBS candidates – Field size 7

Race 4 – 17:10 Newcastle (AW) | 1m Nursery Handicap (Class 6) [7 Run]

🔍 Market Shape

• Fav: Maxwellcan (3.0)

• Close market behind: Popty Ping (4.2), Panthere Noir (6.0), Alfa Patisserie (9.5)

• No N/Rs – 7 runners total

✅ Is This a System Race?

Yes – interesting shape with multiple class droppers and a trainer switch angle

🟥 False Favourite Check

Candidate: Maxwellcan (3.0)

• Computer Tips: 4 pts (4th-rated), behind Popty Ping (13 pts), Parole Officer (11 pts)

• Smart Stats:

  • Popty Ping: 1st-time cheekpieces

  • Maxwellcan: Class drop (C4 ➝ C6), but not highest on model

• Trainer: Charlie Johnston — decent Newcastle record (36 wins/247 runs), but not Hot today

• Concerns:

  • Poor computer rating for a favourite

  • Lack of headgear/form edge

  • Several rivals with stronger profiles and stats

Verdict: ✅ False Favourite

Value Alternatives:

• Popty Ping (4.2) — Model top-rated (13 pts), wearing first-time headgear, well-supported

• Parole Officer (10.0) — Stable switch (S Woods ➝ Ewan Whillans), model 2nd (11 pts), underestimated

🟨 LBS Opportunity

❌ No LBS candidates – Field size 7

Race 5 – 17:40 Newcastle (AW) | 6f Fillies’ Restricted Novice (Class 5) [6 Run]

🔍 Market Shape

• Applesandpears (1.4) — strong short-price fav

• Clementines Star (4.5) next best

• Others 11+; very top-heavy market

• All 6 run — too small for LBS

✅ Is This a System Race?

No — small field, uncompetitive race type, and heavy market skew make it poor for structured opposition

🟥 False Favourite Check

Candidate: Applesandpears (1.4)

• Computer Tips: 18 pts — clear top-rated

• Trainer: Unknown from Smart Stats; not cold

• Concerns: None from model or market

• Field: No threat identified, very weak oppo

Verdict: ✅ Legit Favourite

🟨 LBS Opportunity

❌ No LBS candidates – Field size 6

Race 6 – 18:10 Newcastle (AW) | 6f Handicap (Class 4) [13 Run]

🔍 Market Shape

• Tight at top: Germanic (4.35), Maelstrom (4.5), Uncle Don (5.0)

• Then Stratusnine (10.0), Mr Cool, Secret Guest (12.0), many at double figures

• Competitive mid-range market with live outside chances

✅ Is This a System Race?

Yes — solid market, strong form lines, and full LBS eligibility (13 runners)

🟥 False Favourite Check

Candidate: Germanic (4.35)

• Computer Tips: Not in top 4 – weak model support

• Smart Stats:

  • Maelstrom: Beaten fav last time; hot trainer (Haggas); eye-catching placement

  • Irish Nectar: Stable switch; 1st-time cheekpieces

  • Secret Guest: Top 10 earner; long layoff?

• Trainer: Germanic trainer not flagged hot; lacks standout profile

• Concerns:

  • Weak model endorsement

  • Competition is deep — value spread widely

Verdict: ✅ False Favourite

Value Alternatives:

• Maelstrom (4.5) — beaten fav, hot trainer, model top-rated (11 pts)

• Irish Nectar (21) — massive price, but new yard + 1st-time headgear

🟨 LBS Opportunity

💡 LBS Opportunity: Maelstrom

• Odds Range: 4.5

• Reason: Beaten favourite, smart yard (Haggas), strong model support

• Action: Watch for 4TBP cover or late entry

• ⚠️ Risk: Exposed to market pressure at short odds; may fall below optimal band

• 📌 Stake: 2 pts @ 3.05 band if 4TBP lands near that range

Race 7 – 18:40 Newcastle (AW) | 1m Fillies’ Handicap (Class 5) [9 Run]

🔍 Market Shape

• Fav: La Scanderbeide (4.5)

• Stateira (5.5), Bernalda (6.5), Queen Of Atlantis (7.5), Wonderbolt (9.0) — competitive

• Full field of 9 – LBS eligible

✅ Is This a System Race?

Yes – lively fillies’ handicap with wide open market and clear overlays. Ideal for FF and LBS screening.

🟥 False Favourite Check

Candidate: La Scanderbeide (4.5)

• Computer Tips: Top-rated (10 pts) – strong model backing

• Smart Stats:

  • La Scanderbeide: 1st-time tongue strap, trainer George Boughey in hot form

  • Bernalda: Blinkers + tongue strap; rider (Jonny Peate) cold (49 rides without win)

  • Bellarchi: Big drop in form from top prize earnings; trainer Grant Tuer is hot

• Trainer: Boughey is a hot trainer and top AW operator

• Concerns: Limited — sharp profile, top model pick, positive headgear change

Verdict: ✅ Legit Favourite — but only just; supported by hot trainer + gear tweak

🟨 LBS Opportunity

💡 LBS Opportunity: Bernalda

• Odds Range: 6.5

• Reason: Blinkers + tongue tie; model score 7 pts; fit profile, trainer sharp

• Action: Watch for 4TBP support; fair odds-to-risk ratio

• ⚠️ Risk: Cold jockey (Jonny Peate); volatility risk late

• 📌 Stake: 3 pts @ 2.39 band if 4TBP lands in that zone

Race 8 – 19:10 Newcastle (AW) | 5f Handicap (Class 6) [9 Run]

🔍 Market Shape

• Fav: Dandy Dinmont (3.5)

• Next: Spirit Of Applause (5.0), Macarone (7.0)

• Tiriac, Ay Gee Ell, Our Absent Friends — all priced 8.0–8.5

• Fully compressed — serious LBS setup if profile fits

✅ Is This a System Race?

Yes – ideal shape, wide middle, clean market tiers, and 9 declared

🟥 False Favourite Check

Candidate: Dandy Dinmont (3.5)

• Computer Tips: 2nd on model (8 pts); behind Macarone (11 pts)

• Smart Stats:

  • Spirit Of Applause: Beaten fav; class drop (74 ➝ 69 OR); blinkers back on

  • Macarone: 1st-time cheekpieces, trainer I Furtado (Hot Trainer)

  • Tiriac: Cheekpieces, stable in long losing run

• Concerns:

  • Only mid-tier model support

  • Others sharper on profile and gear

  • Not from hot yard

Verdict: ✅ False Favourite

Value Alternatives:

• Macarone (7.0) — Top-rated model (11 pts), gear change, smart trainer

• Spirit Of Applause (5.0) — Beaten fav, class dropper, legit 2nd fav

🟨 LBS Opportunity

💡 LBS Opportunity: Macarone

• Odds Range: 7.0

• Reason: 1st-time cheekpieces, high model rating, trainer in form

• Action: Ideal 4TBP shape – monitor market entry

• ⚠️ Risk: Crowded middle — may shorten rapidly or flatten

• 📌 Stake: 2 pts @ 3.05 band if 4TBP holds near that band

🟩 Daily Summary – Newcastle 17 Nov 2025

🟥 False Favourites:

• Bragbor

• Boy Named Sioux

• Maxwellcan

• Germanic

• Dandy Dinmont

🟨 LBS Confirmed Tickets:

RaceHorseOddsRationaleStake18:10Maelstrom4.5Beaten fav, hot trainer, strong model2 pts18:40Bernalda6.5Dual headgear, model support, trainer form3 pts19:10Macarone7.01st-time CP, hot trainer, top-rated model2 pts

🎯 Total Exposure: 7 pts – ✅ Within daily LBS cap

Here are 3 races from today’s Newcastle card (17 Nov 2025) where Dutching overlays present genuine win-side structural opportunity, based on shape, opposing FFs, and model divergence.

These are not tips — they're system-aligned races where structured Dutching logic may create replicable ROI when managed with discipline.

⚔️ DUTCHING RACE 1: 15:35 – 1m2f Handicap (Class 2)

🟥 FF Verdict: Bragbor – Oppose

• Weak rider (Jonny Peate – cold)

• Trainer not currently hot

• Stable switch without any form lift

• Model pressure from Nebras (7 pts) and Savvy Victory (4 pts)

🧠 Dutching Logic:

• Nebras (5.5) – lightly raced, Gosden, 7 pts, proven stamina

• Savvy Victory (3.25) – pattern form, class edge, OR drop (104 ➝ 98)

• Balanced split returns approx 4.0–4.3 across stake

• Strong value cover without needing 3rd leg

• Target Dutch Return: ≥ 1.35x stake

⚔️ DUTCHING RACE 2: 16:40 – 7f Nursery Handicap (Class 5)

🟥 FF Verdict: Boy Named Sioux – Oppose

• Not top on model (6 pts); rated behind Illy’s Roo (9) & Archangel Josepi (7)

• Trainer cold; little in hand at price

🧠 Dutching Logic:

• Illy’s Roo (7.5) – model top, form intact, each-way type in market

• Archangel Josepi (34) – price distortion but 7-pt model support

• Accept a wider Dutch band due to price gap: e.g. 60/40 split

• Optional Add: Mr Wonka (3.5) for saver cover

• Target Dutch Return: ≥ 1.5x stake if only using Roo + Josepi

⚔️ DUTCHING RACE 3: 19:10 – 5f Handicap (Class 6)

🟥 FF Verdict: Dandy Dinmont – Oppose

• Not top-rated (8 pts vs Macarone’s 11)

• Others have sharper profiles + gear changes

• Class 6 sprint often yields volatile outcomes

🧠 Dutching Logic:

• Macarone (7.0) – LBS qualifier, 11 pts, 1st-time cheekpieces

• Spirit Of Applause (5.0) – class dropper, beaten fav, blinkers return

• Optional Add: Ay Gee Ell (8.5) – fits profile markers, market outsider edge

• Tri-split yields ~3.0–3.5 average return from 1 unit exposure

• Target Dutch Return: ≥ 1.45x stake (2-leg); >1.25x with 3rd horse added

🧪 Want to Help Build the System?

You're using AJ’s Global Horse Racing Learning System — built on structure, not tips.
We're quietly running a live experiment:

• Logging results (AJ sole privately so far.)

• Contact: coldjack(at)protonmail.com

• Improving false favourite detection

• Fine-tuning Dutching & TBP overlays with real user input
  💡 Join the experiment here:
  👉 https://chatgpt.com/g/g-KI2KUkacL-horse-racing-expert
  🛡️ Private. Anonymous. No accounts. No data is shared.
  All decisions stay yours. We just get sharper — together.
  Let’s build slowly. One disciplined user at a time.

• Contact: coldjack(at)protonmail.com

• Join the test group:
  👉 https://chatgpt.com/g/g-KI2KUkacL-horse-racing-expert
  🛡️ Private. Anonymous. Data never shared.
  One disciplined user at a time.

https://www.theukbettingforum.co.uk/XenForo/threads/introducing-ai-deep-dive-horse-racing-podcasts.182979/post-792493
Sign up at the UK Betting Forum to get email notifications when new DAILY cards drop.

Critique and Debrief to follow.

⚠️ DO NOT RELY ON GPT FREE, PLUS and TEAMS TO REMEMBER IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
❌ ChatGPT does NOT persist memory between chats unless explicitly set
❌ Instructions WILL be forgotten unless restated at the start of chat
❌ Assumptions may be made if prompts are vague or incomplete
✅ Always paste your full starter prompt at the beginning of every chat
✅ Use ONE RACE = ONE CHAT to preserve structure and token integrity
❌ Free GPT has severely restricted data processing and limits; simulation IS more likely
❌ GPT Plus has restricted data processing and limits, making simulated outcomes likely
✅ GPT Teams is an expensive upgrade that NOW IS REQUIRED by a solo Hobbyist
❌ ChatGPT can & WILL make mistakes. Freestyling, guessing & ignoring no-assumption rules
✅ Confirm results manually – do NOT let GPT simulate outcomes

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which Hobby Picks are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.

Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

We’re trialling this approach across UK, Irish, Aussie and U.S. horse racing to see where it offers the most value. Keep an eye on how it performs, and as always—bet wisely and enjoy the racing!🏇🔥

"May you never be a penny short of a full wallet."

ChatGPT said:
Now that is a blessing I’ll gladly take! 🙌 May your accas always land, your favourites stay strong, and your pint never run dry on a good race day. 🍻🏇💰

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak!

🧾 EARLY DOORS & M37cal GLOSSARY

📘 UPDATED GLOSSARY – EARLY DOORS & M37cal SYSTEMS (Incl. V15 Model)

What do all these ratings mean? Here’s your decoded glossary with all V15 Early Doors additions and tactical terminology explained.

📊 Core Rating Terms

• 12M – Performance over the last 12 months

• $L12M – 12-month performance, adjusted for prize money/stake yield

• SR – Strike Rate (win percentage)

• Career SR – Lifetime win percentage

• For/Against – Model strength rating versus the rest of the field

⚙️ Fig & Model Dynamics

• Overlay – A fig-positive runner trading at above model-implied odds (value)

• Fig Stack – Total model score across all rating vectors (includes pace, surface, draw, market etc.)

• Chaos Fig – Runner scoring on figs but with unreliable profile or poor tactical fit

• Banker – Fig leader + tactical edge + supported in live market

🔥 Market Signals

• Steam – Odds shortening pre-race (positive market signal)

• Drift – Odds lengthening pre-race (often negative, unless fig-backed)

• Market Tension – A horse the model rates highly, but the market doesn’t (or vice versa)

🧠 Tactical Flags

• Pace Cluster – Multiple horses vying for the lead; can cause collapses

• Slipstream Draw – Favoured position behind early speed; ideal for late closers

• Surge – Exceptional late-race acceleration; fig that often wins with timing

• Fig Tension – 3+ horses rated closely; outcome risk increases

• Value Chaos – Race where many overlays exist but fig margins are tight; potentially lucrative, but volatile

🟢 NEW: V15 EARLY DOORS MODEL TERMINOLOGY

• V15-S (Swinger Forecast) – Structured 3-horse bet per race:
  ▪ Anchor = Primary fig/tactical pick
  ▪ Partners = Two supportive selections with place/forecast value

• Forecast Combo – Straight forecast recommendations using top model picks

• Tactical Forecast – Overall read of race shape: lead types, closers, bias implications

• Caution Marker – Horses flagged due to form, market drift, setup, or draw risks

🧠 M37cal-Only Concepts (Long-game angles)

• Fig Strain – A top-rated runner showing deeper profile weaknesses (trip, surface, tempo)

• Game Tree Tension – Race scenario with 2+ potential tactical outcomes

• Board Flip – One disruptive runner could reshape the whole race logic

• Not-Now Horse – Potential improver, but wrong setup today

➕ Summary Tags:

• Early Doors = Tactical, lean, structured bets from full-field fig logic

• Move 37cal = Deeper seasonal/tactical projection based on long-game intuition and game theory overlays

😆🔥