Newcastle 18 Nov 2025 – V15 Overlay Blog | Tactical Forecasts + Smart Stats Integration

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
19th to 25th January 2025
Starting Bankroll £30
5th March 2025 top-up total £90
Wk 1 £35 Wk 2 £32.01 Wk 3 £18.12
Wk 4 £30.31 WK 5 £33.76 Wk 6 £20.39
Wk 7 £37.14 Wk 8 £21.22 Wk9 £138.37 Wk 10 £119.82 wk 11 £58.42 wk 12 £29.47 wk 13 £4.69

20/4/25 4th top-up £30
WEEK £34.69 (4 up 18/3/25)
Sun - £0 L15 Strategy (END EX)
Mon - £0 L15 Strategy
Tue - £0 L15 Strategy
Wed - £0 L15 Strategy
Thr - £0 L15 Strategy
Fri - £0 L15 Strategy
Sat - £0 L15 Strategy
Combination Tricast Betting Strategy A one-off experiment Return £2.50 25/2/25

Note from Coldjack — V17 Review. After a wild ride with Lucky 15s, the experiment has officially closed. The results are in — and they’ve confirmed what the data hinted at all along: Lucky 15s are high-risk "boom or bust" territory. Fun for the thrill, but they chew through bankroll unless the stars align.

I pushed GPT to its limits (both logically and literally!), testing strategies that most punters wouldn't dare simulate, and it delivered some sharp lessons:

"Yankees are the silent assassins. Lucky 15s are fireworks — bright, loud, and mostly miss the mark."

You weren’t wasting your time. We proved that with real data, layered bets can be dissected, refined, and retooled better than 99% of what’s thrown out each Saturday.

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥

Yankee (x11) (now significantly stronger)
ROI: +38.37% Profit: +£107.64 3rd quarter

✅ AJ the Hobbyist Comment – GPT 5 Pro Upgrade Implications
Due to constant back-end updates and unpredictable behaviour introduced by the GPT-4 to GPT-4o and GPT-5 transition, the V15 Early Doors model is now classified as an:
🔧 EXPERIMENTAL STRATEGY 📉 Final steps redevelopment status.
🚫 Caution for Real-Money Betting 👉 Only stake real money on any V15-based models unless every pick has been manually verified against live market, fig, and stable overlays.

🧪 Want to Help Build the System?

You're using AJ’s Global Horse Racing Learning System — built on structure, not tips.
We're quietly running a live experiment:

• Logging results (privately)

• Contact: coldjack(at)protonmail.com

  • Improving false favourite detection

  • Fine-tuning Dutching & TBP overlays with real user input
    💡 Join the experiment here:
    👉 https://chatgpt.com/g/g-KI2KUkacL-horse-racing-expert
    🛡️ Private. Anonymous. No accounts. No data is shared.
    All decisions stay yours. We just get sharper — together.
    Let’s build slowly. One disciplined user at a time.

Early Doors False Favourites & Layered Betting System (LBS) Blog Page for:

🗓️ Tuesday 18th November 2025
📍 Newcastle (AW)
🧱 Structured using AJ’s Global Horse Racing Learning System – Version 2.1

All races assessed using 1a (Racecards), 1b (Computer Tips), and 1c (Oddschecker) per system.
False Favourites identified. LBS candidates are detected using verified EDH triggers, form flags, and staking overlays.

🏇 Newcastle Race 1 – 15:45

Midnite, Building The Future Of Betting Handicap
2m 56y | Class 6 | AW Standard | 3yo+ | 13 Run
Market Favourite: Educate (4.0)

✅ Is This a System Race?

• Yes. Full field of 13 (per 1c). Eligible for both FF and LBS analysis.

🔍 Market Shape

• Educate heads a moderately compressed top (Educate 4.0, Prince Quattro 5.5, Merrijig 6.0).

• Spread opens significantly after 6.0: >10.0 for rest, suggesting 1–2 strong view horses, then wider uncertainty.

🧠 Strategic Angles

• Educate

  • Headgear: Cheekpieces + Tongue Strap.

  • Beaten Favourite last time out (Smart Stats).

  • Trainer: J S Goldie (neutral 9.2% Newcastle strike, not flagged hot/cold).

  • Jockey: Lauren Young (17.6% last 30 days — in “Hot” zone).

  • Distance? Steps up to 2m, longest trip tackled — risk on stamina if pressured early.

  • Drawn into caution by mixed profile: weight down, but headgear + trip new.

• Alternatives

  • Prince Quattro (5.5): Top-rated on R&S (17 pts), multiple model mentions. Consistent.

  • Merrijig (6.0):

    • Class dropper: C4 → C6.

    • Weighted to win: OR 65 → 62.

    • Blinkers on. Could be value if favourite is soft.

✅ FF Verdict: False Favourite

Educate has risk markers: unproven stamina, beaten fav, dual headgear. Doesn't dominate the race on speed or profile.

🔁 Value Alternatives:

• Merrijig – Class drop + gear + value zone.

• Prince Quattro – Model-backed, reliable.

🟨 LBS Opportunity Scan

💡 LBS Opportunity: Merrijig

• Odds Range: 6.0 (win) → 2.04–2.39 expected TBP

• Reason: Class drop (C4 → C6), weighted to win, top 3 in R&S

• Action: Watch for 4TBP market (2.04–2.39 bracket preferred)

• ⚠️ Risk: Blinkers re-applied, could over-race

• 📌 Stake band: If 4TBP odds ≈ 2.04–2.39 → 3–4 pts max

🏇 Newcastle Race 2 – 16:15

Use Safer Gambling Tools At BetMGM Nursery Selling Handicap
6f | Class 6 | AW Standard | 2yo | 6 Run
Market Favourite: The Tunguska Event (1.73)

✅ Is This a System Race?

• ❌ No. Only 6 runners (confirmed in 1c) – LBS disqualified

• FF logic assessed only.

🔍 Market Shape

• The Tunguska Event is a strong odds-on favourite (1.73), with next best at 4.35 and 9.0+ thereafter.

🧠 Strategic Angles

• The Tunguska Event

  • EDH Flag via R&S + cheekpieces + spotlight tip.

  • Blinkers applied; slight profile move.

  • No strong negatives — model and market both in alignment.

• Mister Moet (10.0):

  • Trainer switch today.

✅ FF Verdict: Legit Favourite

Nothing compelling to oppose — model, gear, and price suggest this is well-placed.

🟨 LBS Opportunity Scan

❌ Not eligible – field <9 and no ALLOW_8_EXCEPTION.

🏇 Newcastle Race 3 – 16:45

Set Deposit Limits At BetMGM Novice Stakes (GBB)
1m 5y | Class 5 | AW Standard | 3yo+ | 11 Run
Market Favourite: Clouds Hill (2.38)

✅ Is This a System Race?

• ✅ Yes. Full field of 11, eligible for both FF + LBS scan.

🔍 Market Shape

• Clouds Hill (2.38), Forest Caper (2.75), Monty Beau (5.0) form clear front tier

🧠 Strategic Angles

• Clouds Hill – underperforms model consensus, doesn’t hold standout edge.

• Forest Caper

  • Beaten favourite last out

  • Hood fitted

  • Kevin Stott aboard – Hot Jockey

  • R&S top-rated (13 pts)

✅ FF Verdict: False Favourite

Clouds Hill is narrow fav but soft on profile. Others more progressive.

🔁 Value Alternatives:

• Forest Caper – Model #1, hot jockey

• Monty Beau – Strong third line.

🟨 LBS Opportunity Scan

💡 LBS Opportunity: Forest Caper

• Odds Range: 2.75 win = ~2.04 TBP range

• Reason: Beaten fav, headgear, model #1, top jockey

• ⚠️ Risk: May face pace pressure

• 📌 Stake band: If 4TBP ≈ 2.04 → 4 pts

🏇 Newcastle Race 4 – 17:15

Take Time Out During SGWEEK25! Handicap
7f 14y | Class 4 | AW Standard | 3yo+ | 11 Run
Market Favourite: Unassuming (4.5)

✅ Is This a System Race?

• ✅ Yes – full field (11 runners). FF + LBS scan valid.

🔍 Market Shape

• Market top is evenly spread – no clear dominance

🧠 Strategic Angles

• Unassuming – Timeform pick, hot jockey, tongue strap, solid but peaking?

• Kullazain (6.0):

  • First-time hood

  • Hot trainer (J Tate) + hot jockey (Stott)

✅ FF Verdict: Legit Favourite

Unassuming supported by: spotlight, hot jockey, solid yard.

🟨 LBS Opportunity Scan

💡 LBS Opportunity: Kullazain

• Odds Range: 6.0 win = ~2.39 TBP

• Reason: Hood 1st time, hot trainer/jockey

• 📌 Stake band: At 2.39 TBP → 3 pts

🏇 Newcastle Race 5 – 17:45

Stay Golden With Responsible Play EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes
1m 5y | Class 5 | AW Standard | 2yo | 7 Run
Market Favourite: Hoseki (3.25)

✅ Is This a System Race?

• ❌ No. Only 7 runners – not eligible for LBS scan. FF assessment only.

🔍 Market Shape

• Tight front three: Hoseki, Society Girl, Brilliant Star

🧠 Strategic Angles

• Hoseki – R&S top-rated, no red flags

• Society Girl – travelled 284 miles

✅ FF Verdict: Legit Favourite

Tight heat; Hoseki aligns with model and market.

🟨 LBS Opportunity Scan

❌ Not eligible

🏇 Newcastle Race 6 – 18:15

Use Safer Gambling Tools At BetMGM Handicap
7f 14y | Class 6 | AW Standard | 3yo+ | 11 Run
Market Favourite: Sherlock (3.0)

✅ Is This a System Race?

• ✅ Yes. Full field of 11. FF + LBS valid.

🔍 Market Shape

• Sherlock is narrow fav – no model backing, no hot stats

🧠 Strategic Angles

• Sherlock – model divergence, no profile edge

• Ardaddy (5.0):

  • R&S top scorer

• Law Degree (12.0) – Gear/profile shift

✅ FF Verdict: False Favourite

Sherlock is hype-priced. Others stronger on structure.

🔁 Value Alternatives: Ardaddy, Law Degree

🟨 LBS Opportunity Scan

💡 LBS Opportunity: Ardaddy

• Odds Range: ~2.39–2.75 TBP

• Reason: Model top scorer

• 📌 Stake band: 3 pts

🏇 Newcastle Race 7 – 18:45

Create Your Bet Builders At Midnite Handicap (Div 1)
6f | Class 6 | AW Standard | 3yo+ | 14 Run
Market Favourite: Mister Sky Blue (5.0)

✅ Is This a System Race?

• ✅ Yes. Full field of 14. FF and LBS logic valid.

🔍 Market Shape

• Wild top: 4 horses between 5.0–6.0 – chaos

🧠 Strategic Angles

• Mister Sky Blue – not top-rated, no gear, no trainer flag

• Superior Council (6.0):

  • Blinkers + Tongue Strap

  • Trainer: I Jardine, Jockey: Cara Tuke (hot)

• Fircombe Hall – Beaten fav + weight drop

✅ FF Verdict: False Favourite

Overexposed fav. Better profile runners available.

🔁 Value Alternatives: Superior Council, Fircombe Hall

🟨 LBS Opportunity Scan

💡 LBS Opportunity: Superior Council

• Odds Range: ~2.39 TBP

• Reason: Gear + hot jockey/trainer

• 📌 Stake band: 3 pts

🏇 Newcastle Race 8 – 19:15

Create Your Bet Builders At Midnite Handicap (Div 2)
6f | Class 6 | AW Standard | 3yo+ | 14 Run
Market Favourite: Korroor (2.63)

✅ Is This a System Race?

• ✅ Yes. Full field of 14. FF and LBS logic valid.

🔍 Market Shape

• Korroor short, others >5.0 – compression

🧠 Strategic Angles

• Korroor – visor on, top of R&S, but vulnerable

• Glendown (11.0): Gear combo + weight drop

• Rory (5.0): Visor 1st time, weighted to win

✅ FF Verdict: False Favourite

Too short in big field. Profile not dominant.

🔁 Value Alternatives: Glendown, Rory

🟨 LBS Opportunity Scan

💡 LBS Opportunity: Glendown

• Odds Range: ~3.05 TBP

• Reason: Gear + profile

• 📌 Stake band: 2 pts

🏇 Newcastle Race 9 – 19:45

Join The Midnite Movement Handicap
5f | Class 5 | AW Standard | 3yo+ | 12 Run
Market Favourite: Alligator Alley (5.5)

✅ Is This a System Race?

• ✅ Yes. Full field of 12. FF + LBS scan valid.

🔍 Market Shape

• No strong fav – 5.5 to 9.0 spread

🧠 Strategic Angles

• Alligator Alley – class earner, not form-driven

• Thankuappreciate (10.0):

  • 1st time tongue strap

  • Weighted to win

✅ FF Verdict: False Favourite

Overrated on past. Dangerous race shape.

🔁 Value Alternative: Thankuappreciate

🟨 LBS Opportunity Scan

💡 LBS Opportunity: Thankuappreciate

• Odds Range: ~3.05 TBP

• Reason: Gear + handicap angle

• 📌 Stake band: 2 pts

📊 Phase 1 Summary

🟥 False Favourite Verdicts:

• FF: Educate, Clouds Hill, Sherlock, Mister Sky Blue, Korroor, Alligator Alley

• Legit: The Tunguska Event, Hoseki, Unassuming

🟨 LBS Confirmed Picks:

• R1: Merrijig

• R3: Forest Caper

• R4: Kullazain

• R6: Ardaddy

• R7: Superior Council

• R8: Glendown

• R9: Thankuappreciate

Here are 3 races from Newcastle (18 Nov 2025) where Dutching overlays offer clear win structure using AJ’s disciplined approach:

🎯 Dutch Overlay 1 – Race 1 (15:45 Newcastle)

2m | Class 6 | AW | 13 runners
⚠️ False Favourite: Educate

🧠 Dutch Profile:

• Market confused beyond 6.0

• Educate opposable on stamina/form grounds

• 2 overlay horses with tight market proximity and clear upside:

🔨 Dutch Pair:

• Merrijig (6.0) – Class dropper, weighted to win, gear change

• Prince Quattro (5.5) – Model top, reliable staying profile

💡 Why it works:

• Both sit in efficient price range for ROI-positive stake shaping (5.5–6.0 zone)

• Combined win odds implied ≈ 46%

• Structural edge: FF + dual rated overlays

🎯 Dutch Overlay 2 – Race 3 (16:45 Newcastle)

1m | Novice | 11 runners
⚠️ False Favourite: Clouds Hill

🧠 Dutch Profile:

• Narrow fav (Clouds Hill) weak on profile

• 2 others dominant in data: model, gear, jockey

🔨 Dutch Pair:

• Forest Caper (2.75) – Beaten fav, hood on, hot jockey, model #1

• Monty Beau (5.0) – Strong third-line horse, consistent figures

💡 Why it works:

• Forest Caper is near anchor territory

• Monty Beau gives cover and value if pace burns leader

• Combined implied win chance ≈ 55%

• True 1–2 overlay with price support on both sides

🎯 Dutch Overlay 3 – Race 6 (18:15 Newcastle)

7f | Class 6 | 11 runners
⚠️ False Favourite: Sherlock

🧠 Dutch Profile:

• Sherlock overpriced with no data foundation

• 2 dangerous overlays both rank well in system:

🔨 Dutch Pair:

• Ardaddy (5.0) – R&S top pick, stable form, well balanced type

• Law Degree (12.0) – Gear change (cheekpieces), big profile shift, outsider danger

💡 Why it works:

• Dutching provides coverage across value (5.0) and expansion zones (12.0)

• Combined odds ≈ 6.5% + 20% → effective implied ≈ 26–28%

• Risk-adjusted overlay due to FF compression

⚙️ Overlay Structure Notes:

• Stake across runners in proportion to achieve balanced returns (equalised profit if either wins)

• Avoid overexposing — no triple dutch needed in these setups

• ROI hinges on detecting soft favs + pricing sweet spot (typically 5.0–12.0 range)

🧪 Want to Help Build the System?

You're using AJ’s Global Horse Racing Learning System — built on structure, not tips.
We're quietly running a live experiment:

• Logging results (AJ sole privately so far.)

• Contact: coldjack(at)protonmail.com

• Improving false favourite detection

• Fine-tuning Dutching & TBP overlays with real user input
  💡 Join the experiment here:
  👉 https://chatgpt.com/g/g-KI2KUkacL-horse-racing-expert
  🛡️ Private. Anonymous. No accounts. No data is shared.
  All decisions stay yours. We just get sharper — together.
  Let’s build slowly. One disciplined user at a time.

• Contact: coldjack(at)protonmail.com

• Join the test group:
  👉 https://chatgpt.com/g/g-KI2KUkacL-horse-racing-expert
  🛡️ Private. Anonymous. Data never shared.
  One disciplined user at a time.

https://www.theukbettingforum.co.uk/XenForo/threads/introducing-ai-deep-dive-horse-racing-podcasts.182979/post-792734
Sign up at the UK Betting Forum to get email notifications when new DAILY cards drop.

Critique and Debrief to follow.

⚠️ DO NOT RELY ON GPT FREE, PLUS and TEAMS TO REMEMBER IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
❌ ChatGPT does NOT persist memory between chats unless explicitly set
❌ Instructions WILL be forgotten unless restated at the start of chat
❌ Assumptions may be made if prompts are vague or incomplete
✅ Always paste your full starter prompt at the beginning of every chat
✅ Use ONE RACE = ONE CHAT to preserve structure and token integrity
❌ Free GPT has severely restricted data processing and limits; simulation IS more likely
❌ GPT Plus has restricted data processing and limits, making simulated outcomes likely
✅ GPT Teams is an expensive upgrade that NOW IS REQUIRED by a solo Hobbyist
❌ ChatGPT can & WILL make mistakes. Freestyling, guessing & ignoring no-assumption rules
✅ Confirm results manually – do NOT let GPT simulate outcomes

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which Hobby Picks are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.

Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

We’re trialling this approach across UK, Irish, Aussie and U.S. horse racing to see where it offers the most value. Keep an eye on how it performs, and as always—bet wisely and enjoy the racing!🏇🔥

"May you never be a penny short of a full wallet."

ChatGPT said:
Now that is a blessing I’ll gladly take! 🙌 May your accas always land, your favourites stay strong, and your pint never run dry on a good race day. 🍻🏇💰

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak!

🧾 EARLY DOORS & M37cal GLOSSARY

📘 UPDATED GLOSSARY – EARLY DOORS & M37cal SYSTEMS (Incl. V15 Model)

What do all these ratings mean? Here’s your decoded glossary with all V15 Early Doors additions and tactical terminology explained.

📊 Core Rating Terms

• 12M – Performance over the last 12 months

• $L12M – 12-month performance, adjusted for prize money/stake yield

• SR – Strike Rate (win percentage)

• Career SR – Lifetime win percentage

• For/Against – Model strength rating versus the rest of the field

⚙️ Fig & Model Dynamics

• Overlay – A fig-positive runner trading at above model-implied odds (value)

• Fig Stack – Total model score across all rating vectors (includes pace, surface, draw, market etc.)

• Chaos Fig – Runner scoring on figs but with unreliable profile or poor tactical fit

• Banker – Fig leader + tactical edge + supported in live market

🔥 Market Signals

• Steam – Odds shortening pre-race (positive market signal)

• Drift – Odds lengthening pre-race (often negative, unless fig-backed)

• Market Tension – A horse the model rates highly, but the market doesn’t (or vice versa)

🧠 Tactical Flags

• Pace Cluster – Multiple horses vying for the lead; can cause collapses

• Slipstream Draw – Favoured position behind early speed; ideal for late closers

• Surge – Exceptional late-race acceleration; fig that often wins with timing

• Fig Tension – 3+ horses rated closely; outcome risk increases

• Value Chaos – Race where many overlays exist but fig margins are tight; potentially lucrative, but volatile

🟢 NEW: V15 EARLY DOORS MODEL TERMINOLOGY

• V15-S (Swinger Forecast) – Structured 3-horse bet per race:
  ▪ Anchor = Primary fig/tactical pick
  ▪ Partners = Two supportive selections with place/forecast value

• Forecast Combo – Straight forecast recommendations using top model picks

• Tactical Forecast – Overall read of race shape: lead types, closers, bias implications

• Caution Marker – Horses flagged due to form, market drift, setup, or draw risks

🧠 M37cal-Only Concepts (Long-game angles)

• Fig Strain – A top-rated runner showing deeper profile weaknesses (trip, surface, tempo)

• Game Tree Tension – Race scenario with 2+ potential tactical outcomes

• Board Flip – One disruptive runner could reshape the whole race logic

• Not-Now Horse – Potential improver, but wrong setup today

➕ Summary Tags:

• Early Doors = Tactical, lean, structured bets from full-field fig logic

• Move 37cal = Deeper seasonal/tactical projection based on long-game intuition and game theory overlays

😆🔥