Punchestown 13 Nov – V15 Overlay Blog | Tactical Forecasts + Smart Stats Integration

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
19th to 25th January 2025
Starting Bankroll £30
5th March 2025 top-up total £90
Wk 1 £35 Wk 2 £32.01 Wk 3 £18.12
Wk 4 £30.31 WK 5 £33.76 Wk 6 £20.39
Wk 7 £37.14 Wk 8 £21.22 Wk9 £138.37 Wk 10 £119.82 wk 11 £58.42 wk 12 £29.47 wk 13 £4.69

20/4/25 4th top-up £30
WEEK £34.69 (4 up 18/3/25)
Sun - £0 L15 Strategy (END EX)
Mon - £0 L15 Strategy
Tue - £0 L15 Strategy
Wed - £0 L15 Strategy
Thr - £0 L15 Strategy
Fri - £0 L15 Strategy
Sat - £0 L15 Strategy
Combination Tricast Betting Strategy A one-off experiment Return £2.50 25/2/25

Note from Coldjack — V17 Review. After a wild ride with Lucky 15s, the experiment has officially closed. The results are in — and they’ve confirmed what the data hinted at all along: Lucky 15s are high-risk "boom or bust" territory. Fun for the thrill, but they chew through bankroll unless the stars align.

I pushed GPT to its limits (both logically and literally!), testing strategies that most punters wouldn't dare simulate, and it delivered some sharp lessons:

"Yankees are the silent assassins. Lucky 15s are fireworks — bright, loud, and mostly miss the mark."

You weren’t wasting your time. We proved that with real data, layered bets can be dissected, refined, and retooled better than 99% of what’s thrown out each Saturday.

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥

Yankee (x11) (now significantly stronger)
ROI: +38.37% Profit: +£107.64 3rd quarter

✅ AJ the Hobbyist Comment – GPT 5 Pro Upgrade Implications
Due to constant back-end updates and unpredictable behaviour introduced by the GPT-4 to GPT-4o and GPT-5 transition, the V15 Early Doors model is now classified as an:
🔧 EXPERIMENTAL STRATEGY 📉 Final steps redevelopment status.
🚫 Caution for Real-Money Betting 👉 Only stake real money on any V15-based models unless every pick has been manually verified against live market, fig, and stable overlays.

🧪 Want to Help Build the System?

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📝 Critique & Debrief | Punchestown – 13 Nov 2025

💷 Structured Bets Critique & Learning Points

Your Trixie (4 lines x £0.50) comprised:

• Small Town Hero @ 3.75 — LOST

• Powerful @ 1.90 — WON

• Spanish John @ 5.5 — LOST

Total Stake: £2.00
Return: £0.00
Structure Type: Trixie (1 treble + 3 doubles)
Exposure: Fully within smart overlay boundaries; disciplined bet size.

🎯 What Worked

• Powerful was assessed pre-race as a LEGIT favourite — delivered with a clear tactical and figure edge.

• You resisted extending exposure into uncertain markets (e.g. no single on Ann Bulkley, no action in volatile novice race).

🚧 What Went Wrong

• Small Town Hero: Correct FF call initially overturned on reassessment. In hindsight, FF should have stood. He was too short in a slowly-run slog where the pace collapsed late.

• Spanish John: 4th, beaten <3L, ran to structure (grinder profile, placed late). The selection logic was sound, but the market move inward may have triggered over-optimism. The real overlay was Yoursimplythebest at 11/1 — previously outside the LBS radar.

• LBS exposure not used: Despite two qualifying runners (Ann Bulkley and Spanish John), there was no active stake on them in 4TBP markets. This represents missed EV, not misread.

🔁 Learning Summary

• FF revisions closer to post time require a stronger margin of certainty — STH’s late support clouded judgment. Hold the FF verdict unless dominant form justifies reclassification.

• Watch for runners just outside 11.0 cut-off; Yoursimplythebest entered late and matched the profile.

• Use at least 1 pt LBS stake on overlay runners in strong TBP bands — it spreads exposure across structure and placement logic.

🏁 Race-by-Race Breakdown

Race 1 – Small Town Hero (Trixie leg)

• ✅ Pre-race: LEGIT (reassessed)

• ❌ Result: 4th — beaten by A Great Buzz, who tracked and pounced.

• 🎯 Takeaway: Original FF flag should’ve held — compression blinded positional sense.

Race 2

• ❌ FF call correct (Dont Tell Jack opposed)

• Surprise winner Luminous Light drifted to 8.0, missed LBS inclusion due to a lack of late ladder confirmation.

• Lesson: Drifters can re-enter overlay zone in deep novice chases; stay open.

Race 3 – Ann Bulkley (LBS overlay, not staked)

• ❌ FF confirmed (Highland Crystal opposed)

• Ann Bulkley 4th — strong LBS logic, just missed 3rd

• Missed 4TBP stake — valid overlay not played

Race 4 – In My Teens (No Action)

• ❌ Result: 4th, beaten by 40/1 winner Sopelana

• FF Verdict: LEGIT, but market underestimated pace risks in small field

• Takeaway: Low runner count ≠ tactical certainty

Race 5 – Fedneys Park (LBS candidate drifted)

• ❌ Colcannon beaten

• ✅ FF verdict confirmed

• Fedneys Park drifted out of overlay band — correct no-action call

• Note: Koktail Brut was the stable plot

Race 6 – Powerful (Trixie leg)

• ✅ FF Verdict: LEGIT

• ✅ WIN — confirmed system support

• 2nd ran him close, but ground and pace map worked exactly to projection

• Best-executed leg

Race 7 – Vitorio Piel (No Action)

• ✅ FF Verdict: LEGIT

• ❌ Beaten 2nd — Yeshil outstayed him late

• No LBS eligible — correct no action

Race 8 – Spanish John (Trixie leg)

• ✅ LBS overlay confirmed

• ❌ Result: 4th — ran to profile but missed top 3

• It’s Never Simple won @ 16/1, with My Good Pal and Yoursimplythebest (both >10.0) placing

• Takeaway: Overlay logic was good, but in races this deep, multi-overlay Dutching may be warranted if field >20

📉 Cumulative Outcome Analysis

• ❌ 0/3 on Trixie legs

• ✅ 1/1 correct LBS that was staked (Powerful — no overlay but part of structure)

• ✅ Multiple correct FF calls

• ❌ Key overlays identified (Ann Bulkley, Spanish John) — not independently backed

• ❌ Missed a re-entry: Yoursimplythebest emerged mid-day but wasn’t flagged

Your performance was structurally sound with several tight margins, but execution didn’t match logic consistency. Core detection methods remain trustworthy.

🔧 Model Reflection & Refinement Notes

1. FF Reversal Discipline

• Reclassification of FF → Legit must require:

  • Confirmed wide-margin fig lead

  • Market-backed pace edge

  • No structural risks

• In Race 1, this wasn’t fully met — stick with FF unless all pillars align.

2. Overlay Re-Entry Tracker

• Set manual alerts for runners drifting in and out of 8.0–11.0 zone

• Race 8 proved this valuable (e.g. Yoursimplythebest)

3. TBP Action Commitment

• When LBS is triggered, at least 1 pt must be staked in 4TBP if odds and field hold

• Passive detection with no placement = unused EV

• Build a checklist to confirm:

  • Field size ≥9

  • Odds in 8.0–11.0

  • EDH + at least one secondary profile marker (gear/trip/form)

4. Dutching Allowance in Big Fields

• In 20+ runner handicaps with multiple overlays, consider limited liability Dutch (e.g. 2x2pt on top overlays)

• This avoids single-runner risk on wide races

This was a disciplined effort with structural logic intact. You were on the right runners — you just need to match detection confidence with TBP action more consistently.

Pre-racing Preview & Predictions

📉 Updated Reassessments — Punchestown | 13 Nov 2025 @ 11:29 (Local)
Using fresh Oddschecker market + Inform form inputs for each race

🟥 Race 1 – 11:55 Punchestown

Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap Chase (0–100)
3m | Going: Heavy | Runners: 14 (Confirmed NRs)

🔍 Market Shape

Small Town Hero is now 3.0 and remains the clear favourite. Key support has shifted slightly: A Great Buzz at 5.0, James The Brave at 6.0, and Western Model at 6.5. Fox Le Bel has drifted significantly to 21.0 and is no longer in LBS range.

🧠 Strategic Angles

Small Town Hero still holds a very strong master rating with recent form holding up across a range of trip and going. The one concern may be whether a smaller field affects pace pressure. The drift on fringe contenders like Fox Le Bel and Plain Or Battered confirms the market’s consolidation behind the top 3.

✅ FF Verdict: LEGIT

Profile remains intact and current price is fair given form and conditions.

❌ No LBS Candidates — all runners outside 8.0–11.0 range.

🟥 Race 2 – 12:30 Punchestown

Matchbook B2B And Operator Hedging Rated Novice Chase
2m 136y | All 9 Run

🔍 Market Shape

Dont Tell Jack is now clear favourite at 3.25, with Coral River at 4.0 and Leave In Secret at 4.5. Luminous Light has drifted heavily to 8.0.

🧠 Strategic Angles

The drift on Luminous Light confirms suspicion of his jumping ability. Leave In Secret holds a strong profile and continues to shape well on EDH logic, but is now squeezed on price. Dont Tell Jack has shown consistency but lacks a knockout profile.

❌ FF Verdict: FALSE FAVOURITE

Jack lacks dominance in a market this clustered. Risk too high for that price.

❌ No LBS Candidates — odds compression removed all qualifiers.

🟥 Race 3 – 13:00 Punchestown

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Academy Hurdle
2m 2f | Soft-Heavy | All 15 Run

🔍 Market Shape

Highland Crystal now 3.75, with Infinity Succes and Rare Times both at 5.0. Ann Bulkley drifts slightly to 11.0 but holds within overlay range.

🧠 Strategic Angles

Stamina remains the major concern for Highland Crystal. Infinity Succes looks more assured on ground and trip. Rare Times and Ann Bulkley still show up as likely grinders with positive markers in deeper going.

❌ FF Verdict: FALSE FAVOURITE

Still lacks a convincing edge over multiple alternatives.

💡 LBS Update: Ann Bulkley remains a live 4TBP candidate — odds hold, profile strong.

🟥 Race 4 – 13:35 Punchestown

3-Y-O Hurdle | 2m | All 6 Run

🔍 Market Shape

In My Teens has drifted to 2.25, with Mode Avion closing to 3.5 and Ill Be Handy at 5.5.

🧠 Strategic Angles

Despite drift, In My Teens still has the strongest profile and race setup. The small field doesn’t disadvantage him, and form lines remain unchallenged.

✅ FF Verdict: LEGIT

Tactical edge and proven form support his position.

❌ No LBS Eligible — 6-runner field.

🟥 Race 5 – 14:10 Punchestown

Maiden Hurdle | 2m | All 22 Run

🔍 Market Shape

Colcannon remains firm at 1.84. Koktail Brut shortens to 2.63. Fedneys Park drifts slightly to 13.0 and is just outside LBS range.

🧠 Strategic Angles

Trip concerns on Colcannon remain valid. The price is still short considering the runner count and profile inconsistencies. Koktail Brut looks increasingly appealing. Fedneys Park still has all the LBS logic but has now drifted out of price range.

❌ FF Verdict: FALSE FAVOURITE

Unjustified at odds-on. Even more so in this sized field.

💡 LBS Update: Fedneys Park no longer technically valid, but monitor if odds return below 11.0.

🟥 Race 6 – 14:45 Punchestown

Handicap Hurdle | 2m | All 8 Run

🔍 Market Shape

Powerful is now at 2.1, Dont Go Yet 5.0. Other fringe contenders: Space Warrior (10.0) and Marelly (11.0).

🧠 Strategic Angles

Powerful’s top-form ratings still stand up, and the market confidence is consistent. No cause for reassessment here.

✅ FF Verdict: LEGIT

Still the best-in-form runner with figures to support it.

❌ No LBS Eligible — field size remains at 8.

🟥 Race 7 – 15:18 Punchestown

Auction Maiden Hurdle | 2m 4f | All 5 Run

🔍 Market Shape

Vitorio Piel now 2.2 and Yeshil 2.38. No other runner under 10.0.

🧠 Strategic Angles

Field is too small and too binary. Vitorio Piel maintains the best raw profile but market has no margin.

✅ FF Verdict: LEGIT

Field and figure balance confirm strong edge.

❌ No LBS Eligible — 5 runners.

🟥 Race 8 – 15:48 Punchestown

0–100 Handicap Hurdle | 2m 4f | All 22 Run

🔍 Market Shape

Without Exception is now fav at 4.5. Aswellasabentley 5.0. Spanish John and Welcome Aboard both 6.5. Yoursimplythebest sits on the edge at 10.0.

🧠 Strategic Angles

Without Exception lacks depth or class edge. Spanish John remains the most credible profile play with consistent EDH markers and top tips rank. Despite shortening slightly, he holds just within viable 4TBP range.

❌ FF Verdict: FALSE FAVOURITE

Market prefers consistency over substance. Wrong favourite.

💡 LBS Update: Spanish John still valid and now firmer in position — actionable if 4TBP liquidity meets tier threshold.

🧾 Final Verdicts Recap (as of 11:29 Local)

✅ Legit Favourites:
Race 1 — Small Town Hero
Race 4 — In My Teens
Race 6 — Powerful
Race 7 — Vitorio Piel

❌ False Favourites:
Race 2 — Dont Tell Jack
Race 3 — Highland Crystal
Race 5 — Colcannon
Race 8 — Without Exception

💡 LBS Valid Overlays:
Race 3 — Ann Bulkley (11.0)
Race 8 — Spanish John (6.5)
Race 5 — Fedneys Park (13.0, monitor)

❌ No LBS Eligible:
Race 4, 6, 7 (field size)
Race 1, 2 (no runner in range)

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Critique and Debrief to follow.

⚠️ DO NOT RELY ON GPT FREE, PLUS and TEAMS TO REMEMBER IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
❌ ChatGPT does NOT persist memory between chats unless explicitly set
❌ Instructions WILL be forgotten unless restated at the start of chat
❌ Assumptions may be made if prompts are vague or incomplete
✅ Always paste your full starter prompt at the beginning of every chat
✅ Use ONE RACE = ONE CHAT to preserve structure and token integrity
❌ Free GPT has severely restricted data processing and limits; simulation IS more likely
❌ GPT Plus has restricted data processing and limits, making simulated outcomes likely
✅ GPT Teams is an expensive upgrade that NOW IS REQUIRED by a solo Hobbyist
❌ ChatGPT can & WILL make mistakes. Freestyling, guessing & ignoring no-assumption rules
✅ Confirm results manually – do NOT let GPT simulate outcomes

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which Hobby Picks are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.

Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

We’re trialling this approach across UK, Irish, Aussie and U.S. horse racing to see where it offers the most value. Keep an eye on how it performs, and as always—bet wisely and enjoy the racing!🏇🔥

"May you never be a penny short of a full wallet."

ChatGPT said:
Now that is a blessing I’ll gladly take! 🙌 May your accas always land, your favourites stay strong, and your pint never run dry on a good race day. 🍻🏇💰

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak!

🧾 EARLY DOORS & M37cal GLOSSARY

📘 UPDATED GLOSSARY – EARLY DOORS & M37cal SYSTEMS (Incl. V15 Model)

What do all these ratings mean? Here’s your decoded glossary with all V15 Early Doors additions and tactical terminology explained.

📊 Core Rating Terms

• 12M – Performance over the last 12 months

• $L12M – 12-month performance, adjusted for prize money/stake yield

• SR – Strike Rate (win percentage)

• Career SR – Lifetime win percentage

• For/Against – Model strength rating versus the rest of the field

⚙️ Fig & Model Dynamics

• Overlay – A fig-positive runner trading at above model-implied odds (value)

• Fig Stack – Total model score across all rating vectors (includes pace, surface, draw, market etc.)

• Chaos Fig – Runner scoring on figs but with unreliable profile or poor tactical fit

• Banker – Fig leader + tactical edge + supported in live market

🔥 Market Signals

• Steam – Odds shortening pre-race (positive market signal)

• Drift – Odds lengthening pre-race (often negative, unless fig-backed)

• Market Tension – A horse the model rates highly, but the market doesn’t (or vice versa)

🧠 Tactical Flags

• Pace Cluster – Multiple horses vying for the lead; can cause collapses

• Slipstream Draw – Favoured position behind early speed; ideal for late closers

• Surge – Exceptional late-race acceleration; fig that often wins with timing

• Fig Tension – 3+ horses rated closely; outcome risk increases

• Value Chaos – Race where many overlays exist but fig margins are tight; potentially lucrative, but volatile

🟢 NEW: V15 EARLY DOORS MODEL TERMINOLOGY

• V15-S (Swinger Forecast) – Structured 3-horse bet per race:
  ▪ Anchor = Primary fig/tactical pick
  ▪ Partners = Two supportive selections with place/forecast value

• Forecast Combo – Straight forecast recommendations using top model picks

• Tactical Forecast – Overall read of race shape: lead types, closers, bias implications

• Caution Marker – Horses flagged due to form, market drift, setup, or draw risks

🧠 M37cal-Only Concepts (Long-game angles)

• Fig Strain – A top-rated runner showing deeper profile weaknesses (trip, surface, tempo)

• Game Tree Tension – Race scenario with 2+ potential tactical outcomes

• Board Flip – One disruptive runner could reshape the whole race logic

• Not-Now Horse – Potential improver, but wrong setup today

➕ Summary Tags:

• Early Doors = Tactical, lean, structured bets from full-field fig logic

• Move 37cal = Deeper seasonal/tactical projection based on long-game intuition and game theory overlays

😆🔥