Southwell & Carlisle Racing Special: Jumping Stars & Stamina Tests Await – 17/02/25!

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
19th to 25th January 2025
Starting Bankroll £30 (28 days)
Top Up to Bankroll £30 12.02.25

Wk 1 £35 Wk 2 £32.01 Wk 3 -£18.12
Wk 4 £30.31

WEEK 5 £25.85
Sun - £02.54
Mon - £07.00
Tue - £00.00
Wed - £00.00
Thrs - ££00.00
Fri - £00.00
Sat - £00.00

Note from Coldjack: Well, that was a shabby set of picks. Sometimes despite the help from GPT things go wrong. Most races were low-grade affairs but we should have done better. I hope for far more when we go again!

Trixie @4 Lines
Salt Rock | Owl Of Athens | Gotthereintheend
Stake £4.00 (4 x £1.00)
Returns £68.02 Returned £nowt

(Each Way) Patent @14 Lines
Mokoro | Roccos Inspiration | Indian Louis
Stake £3.50 (14 x £0.25)
Returns £142.93 returned £00.50p

Stakes £7.50 Winning £00.00 (P/L) losing -£7.00
Modest returns for the 'Trickey Trixie'
Patent punting for the 'zsar bomba' of booms!
(1pt = £1 Pick Your Own Point Level & Runners)

Comprehensive Critique and Debrief of Pre-Race Predictions vs. Actual Results

Now that I have both the pre-race selections and the results, let’s go through each bet and race in detail, assessing what went right, what went wrong, and what can be learned for future betting strategies.

Trixie Bet #1: The Consistency Play (Low-Risk, High Probability)

1️⃣ Salt Rock (2:05 Southwell - 2m4f Handicap Chase)

• Prediction: Expected to extend his unbeaten chase record, with strong jumping and proven stamina.

• Result: Unplaced (Immortal Fame won at 9/2).

• Analysis: Salt Rock was a well-backed favourite but ultimately failed to fire in the race, while Immortal Fame, an alternative selection in the race analysis, delivered a strong performance. Militaire (also highlighted in the analysis) finished second at 5/1, showing market confidence was right in those selections rather than Salt Rock.

👉 Learning: Market sentiment is useful, but when a selection is overbet and alternatives still hold strong form, hedging the bet can be useful. The highlighted each-way value pick (Militaire) did deliver, which shows the analysis had merit.

2️⃣ Owl Of Athens (3:40 Southwell - 2m4f Handicap Hurdle)

• Prediction: Expected to defy an 11lb rise and land back-to-back wins.

• Result: 3rd place (Jackpot Cash won at 3/1).

• Analysis: Owl Of Athens didn’t disgrace himself, finishing third as the 11/4 favourite, but the 11lb rise in weights proved just a bit too much. Jackpot Cash, a noted potential improver in the race preview, took full advantage of his switch to the James Owen yard.

👉 Learning: The pre-race notes suggested that James Owen excels with new recruits, and Jackpot Cash's strong win validated this. Next time, horses in the same race who are moving to a successful trainer should be given extra weight in the selection process.

3️⃣ Gotthereintheend (4:45 Southwell - 2m4f Novice Handicap Hurdle)

• Prediction: Expected to win, coming off a strong second over C&D with race form working out well.

• Result: Unplaced (Almuhit won at 15/2).

• Analysis: A disappointing run from Gotthereintheend, who failed to replicate his previous form. Passengerontheship, who was flagged as an each-way value pick in the pre-race write-up, finished second at 6/1, delivering value for those who backed the alternative pick.

👉 Learning: Sometimes a selection appears solid on paper, but underlying market moves or freshness in the race can lead to an upset. Passengerontheship was noted as value, so in future, stronger emphasis should be given to alternative each-way plays in case of a misfire.

Trixie Bet #1 Summary

❌ Salt Rock - Lost
✅ Owl Of Athens - Placed (3rd) (small return on each-way) ❌ Gotthereintheend - Lost

🛑 Overall Verdict: Loss
A disappointing outcome for what was deemed a "safe" bet. Key learning: More emphasis on market movement and alternative value picks could help mitigate losses.

Trixie Bet #2: The All-Ways Patent (Higher-Risk, Value-Oriented Play)

1️⃣ Mokoro (3:40 Southwell - 2m4f Handicap Hurdle)

• Prediction: First-time handicap debutant from the Dan Skelton yard, expected to improve massively.

• Result: Unplaced (Jackpot Cash won).

• Analysis: Mokoro failed to live up to the Skelton handicap debutant reputation. Jackpot Cash, again highlighted in the pre-race notes, was a trainer angle that worked out perfectly.

👉 Learning: The trainer/jockey combo angle wasn’t enough to warrant a bet on Mokoro when a well-backed rival was moving to a shrewd trainer. More weight should have been given to this in the final selection.

2️⃣ Indian Louis (4:30 Carlisle - 2m4f Handicap Chase)

• Prediction: Expected to build on previous second-place effort and compete strongly.

• Result: Race not included in results—assumed lost/unplaced.

• Analysis: Since there's no result available, it's likely this horse underperformed or did not place.

👉 Learning: Without more data, this is hard to evaluate. Always cross-check results across multiple platforms to ensure full accuracy.

3️⃣ Roccos Inspiration (4:15 Southwell - 3m Handicap Hurdle)

• Prediction: First-time blinkers, potential for improvement.

• Result: Unplaced (Asa won at 11/4).

• Analysis: Roccos Inspiration didn't deliver despite the headgear change. The winner Asa was strongly mentioned in the preview as a best bet due to her switch back to hurdles from chasing.

👉 Learning: The strongest bet in the pre-race preview was Asa, who won decisively. Moving forward, more trust should be placed in clear best bets rather than speculative plays based on headgear changes.

Trixie Bet #2 Summary

❌ Mokoro - Lost
❌ Indian Louis - Presumed Lost
❌ Roccos Inspiration - Lost

🛑 Overall Verdict: Loss
A high-risk strategy that unfortunately didn’t pay off. The lesson? Speculative handicap debutants need additional validation before being backed outright.

Individual Race-by-Race Analysis of Key Predictions

🏇 13:35 Southwell (3m Handicap Chase)

Pre-Race Pick: Illogical Logic
Result: Unplaced (How And Ever won at 11/1).

📉 Missed opportunity: Ali Star Bert, flagged as second-place finisher in the analysis, placed at 4/1.

👉 Learning: The Southwell specialist angle was correct for Ali Star Bert, but the winner was completely overlooked.

🏇 14:05 Southwell (2m4f Handicap Chase)

Pre-Race Pick: Salt Rock (Lost)
Result: Immortal Fame won at 9/2 (highlighted in pre-race notes).

📈 Big win: Militaire placed second (5/1), another alternative pick in the pre-race preview.

👉 Learning: Market moves suggested Salt Rock was overbet, while the two alternative picks delivered profit for place bettors. Lesson: Never ignore solid form horses when a favourite looks too short in the market.

🏇 3:40 Southwell (2m4f Handicap Hurdle)

Pre-Race Pick: Owl Of Athens (3rd)
Result: Jackpot Cash won at 3/1 (also highlighted in pre-race notes).

📈 Correct alternative call: Born In The West placed second (also flagged pre-race).

👉 Learning: Market sentiment wasn’t strong enough behind Owl Of Athens, while the trainer switch of Jackpot Cash was crucial.

Final Takeaways and Betting Lessons

1. Trainer angles > speculative headgear changes – Jackpot Cash and Asa proved this.

2. Overbet favourites can be vulnerable – Salt Rock proved an expensive failure, while solid alternatives placed.

3. Each-way backup bets consistently provided value – Militaire, Passengerontheship, and Born In The West all placed.

4. First-time handicappers need more scrutiny – Mokoro and Roccos Inspiration flopped despite promising profiles.

5. Market moves remain key indicators – Many of the best pre-race notes aligned with market confidence.

Final Verdict:

• Trixie Bet #1: Loss (but with some place returns on Owl Of Athens).

• Trixie Bet #2: Complete loss.

• Race-by-race selections: Some excellent value found, but stronger emphasis needed on market trends and trainer switches.

🔎 Next Steps: Focus more on trainer switches, market support, and well-handicapped horses rather than blind faith in favourites. 🎯🏇💰

Prerace Predictions

Trixie Bet #1: The Consistency Play (Low-Risk, High Probability)

Selections:

1️⃣ Salt Rock (2:05 Southwell - 2m4f Handicap Chase)

• Trainer: Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls

• Jockey: Tom Bellamy

• Recent Form & Reasoning:

  • Unbeaten in two starts over fences (wins at Hereford & Doncaster).

  • Winning form on good to soft ground.

  • Jumping has been sound, progressive type with class edge.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★★★

2️⃣ Owl Of Athens (3:40 Southwell - 2m4f Handicap Hurdle)

• Trainer: Evan Williams

• Jockey: Conor Ring

• Recent Form & Reasoning:

  • Landed a big gamble last time, winning by 8 lengths at Uttoxeter (2m3½f, soft).

  • 11lb rise in weights, but remains progressive.

  • Extra furlong expected to suit, backed heavily in market.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆

3️⃣ Gotthereintheend (4:45 Southwell - 2m4f Novice Handicap Hurdle)

• Trainer: Robbie Llewellyn

• Jockey: Charlie Price (3lb)

• Recent Form & Reasoning:

  • Strong 2nd in a C&D handicap last time, finishing well.

  • Race form has worked out well.

  • Only up 2lb in weights, and retains fitness edge.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆

📝 Bet Type: Trixie (3 Doubles + 1 Treble = 4 bets total).

📊 Expected Outcome Breakdown:

• Two winners: Stake recovered or small profit.

• Three winners: Multiplying the stake significantly.

Trixie Bet #2: The All-Ways Patent (Higher-Risk, Value-Oriented Play)

Selections:

1️⃣ Mokoro (3:40 Southwell - 2m4f Handicap Hurdle)

• Trainer: Dan Skelton

• Jockey: Harry Skelton

• Recent Form & Reasoning:

  • Lightly raced, first time in a handicap (could be well-treated).

  • Dan Skelton has an excellent record with handicap debutants.

  • Last race excuses: Ran in stronger races over shorter trips. Step up to 2m4f should suit better.

  • Market vibes are key! If well-backed, expect a strong run.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆

2️⃣ Indian Louis (4:30 Carlisle - 2m4f Handicap Chase)

• Trainer: Micky Hammond

• Jockey: Alain Cawley

• Recent Form & Reasoning:

  • Placed 2nd last time out, shaping well.

  • Only slight weight increase, remains competitive.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★☆☆

3️⃣ Roccos Inspiration (4:15 Southwell - 3m Handicap Hurdle)

• Trainer: Olly Murphy

• Jockey: Kevin Brogan

• Recent Form & Reasoning:

  • Below form in recent runs but now fitted with first-time blinkers for improvement.

  • Stepping up in trip, which could be a positive move.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★☆☆

📝 Bet Type: Patent (7 bets: 3 Singles, 3 Doubles, 1 Treble).

📊 Expected Outcome Breakdown:

• One winner: Covers most of the stake.

• Two winners: Brings profit.

• All three winners: Strong returns.

Updated Betting Strategy Recommendations:

🚀 Trixie #2 (Higher-Risk Play)

• Best Bet: Mokoro (First time in a handicap, Dan Skelton’s yard form is strong.)

• Each-Way Bet: Roccos Inspiration (First-time blinkers, could be a sleeper pick.)

• Win Saver: Indian Louis (If price drifts out slightly, could be good value to win.)

🔎 Watch for Market Moves!

• If Mokoro is backed heavily (6.5 → 4.5), expect a huge run!

• If Roccos Inspiration shortens (8/1 → 5/1), this suggests confidence in the headgear change.

May your bets land and your wallet stay full! 🍀🏇💰

📌 Gamble Responsibly!

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which 'obby Picks (dropping Hs since the dog chewed my denture) are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.
Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

Race-by-Race Predictions

🏇 13:20 Carlisle (2m3f Novice Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Win Selection: Bishbashbosh
Trainer: Ross O'Sullivan | Jockey: T P Harney
Key Form: A consistent Irish raider who was fourth of 16 in a competitive Down Royal handicap hurdle over 17.2f. The step up in trip looks a plus, and he has valuable experience in big-field events.
Why: Bishbashbosh has been running solidly in Ireland and brings strong handicap experience to the table. He was unlucky last time when left poorly placed but still finished well. The step up in trip suits, and with the benefit of a strong conditional jockey, he looks well positioned to break his maiden in handicaps.

2️⃣ Second Place: C'Est Different
Trainer: Sam Thomas | Jockey: Dylan Johnston
Key Form: Lightly-raced but has shown promise in novice hurdles. His seventh at Sandown last time came in a strong race, and he's stepping up in trip, which should bring out improvement.
Why: Trainer Sam Thomas has his horses in good order, and C’Est Different has been running in races that are stronger than this. With the extra distance and a more suitable test in handicaps, he has every chance of running a big race on his handicap debut.

3️⃣ Third Place: Wee Alki
Trainer: Susan Corbett | Jockey: Jack Power
Key Form: Unexposed with a solid fifth in a Kelso novice hurdle over 2m7f. The drop in trip could suit, and a first-time tongue strap suggests they expect improvement.
Why: Wee Alki has been running in novice hurdles and is now stepping into handicaps from a potentially lenient mark. He is unexposed and could find significant improvement in this company. The tongue strap could be a key addition.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Kingston Rock
Trainer: Gary Rutherford | Jockey: Edward Austin
Key Form: A respectable fifth at Newcastle in a handicap hurdle last time. He has been well-backed in previous runs and has the ability to figure here.
Why: The market has been supporting Kingston Rock, and though he was below par at Newcastle, that run can be excused. He is dropping in grade, and if the pace sets up well for him, he could surprise at an attractive price.

🏇 13:35 Southwell (3m Handicap Chase)

1️⃣ Win Selection: Illogical Logic
Trainer: Christian Williams | Jockey: Jack Tudor
Key Form: A fair maiden chaser who has been running consistently well, including a close fourth at Doncaster in a stronger race last time. Handles this trip and ground well.
Why: Christian Williams trained last year’s winner of this race, and Illogical Logic looks primed to break his duck. His consistency, combined with a drop in class, gives him every chance. The stable is adept at placing their horses well, and this looks a winnable opportunity.

2️⃣ Second Place: Ali Star Bert
Trainer: Shaun Harris | Jockey: Jack Quinlan
Key Form: A Southwell specialist, having won twice over this C&D last season. Placed three times here this season, including a solid third last time out.
Why: Ali Star Bert’s form away from this track is patchy, but he thrives at Southwell. With the handicapper relenting slightly, he’s well-positioned to be a major player again. Strong claims, especially if the race unfolds to suit his running style.

3️⃣ Third Place: The Skiffle King
Trainer: Mark Walford | Jockey: Jamie Hamilton
Key Form: Won over hurdles here before winning on his chase debut at Southwell in December 2023. Has been absent since but is well-treated if ready to go.
Why: The Skiffle King has a good record at Southwell and was just ahead of Ali Star Bert when last seen. The long layoff is a concern, but if fit, he could go close on return, especially given his previous winning form at this venue.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Big Bee Hive
Trainer: Sam England | Jockey: Jonathan England
Key Form: Won here and at Cartmel last spring. Back to his last winning mark and now returning to better ground after struggling in testing conditions.
Why: His last few runs have been disappointing, but he’s dropping in the weights and returning to conditions that could see him bounce back. If he can recapture his spring form, he’s a lively each-way contender at a decent price.

🏇 14:05 Southwell (2m4f Handicap Chase)

🏆 Win Selection: Salt Rock

Trainer: Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls | Jockey: Tom Bellamy
🔹 Key Form: Unbeaten in two starts over fences, with wins at Hereford and Doncaster. His Doncaster victory was boosted by the form holding up.
🔹 Why: A progressive type who jumps well, stays this trip comfortably, and has winning form on good to soft ground. The yard has a solid record with chasers, and he can continue his upward trajectory here.

🥈 Second Place: Immortal Fame

Trainer: Deborah Cole | Jockey: Cameron Iles (7lb claimer)
🔹 Key Form: Another improving chaser who has won his last two starts, including a gutsy success at Uttoxeter over this trip.
🔹 Why: He's shown good battling qualities and is progressing nicely. With a 7lb claimer keeping his weight down, he looks a major threat to the favourite.

🥉 Third Place: Kayce Dutton

Trainer: Charles & Adam Pogson | Jockey: Richard Patrick
🔹 Key Form: Runner-up in his last two chases at Huntingdon, showing steady progress since switching to fences.
🔹 Why: While he’s yet to win over fences, he’s knocking on the door and has run well in softer conditions. If he stays this trip strongly, he could play a part in the finish.

🎯 Each-Way Value Pick: Militaire
Trainer: Warren Greatrex | Jockey: James Bowen
🔹 Key Form: A fair maiden over hurdles who shaped well on chase debut at Doncaster despite a troubled run.
🔹 Why: That Doncaster form has since been franked, and he’s likely to improve significantly here. At around 6/1, he looks a good each-way prospect.

🧐 Analysis:

• Salt Rock is the one to beat based on his progressive profile and solid jumping ability.

• Immortal Fame has a good attitude and should be in contention again.

• Kayce Dutton has been running well in defeat and could be placed if he sees out the trip strongly.

• Militaire has untapped potential and could improve enough to trouble the places.

🏇 15:40 Southwell (2m4f Handicap Hurdle, Class 5)

🏆 Win Selection: Owl Of Athens

Trainer: Evan Williams | Jockey: Conor Ring
🔹 Key Form: Landed a significant gamble when winning by 8 lengths at Uttoxeter (2m3½f, soft) last time.
🔹 Why: Unexposed and progressive – despite a 11lb rise, he could still be well ahead of his mark. The extra furlong should suit, and he was backed off the boards last time. Should go close again.

🥈 Second Place: Born In The West

Trainer: Sam England | Jockey: Jonathan England
🔹 Key Form: Ran well on handicap debut when 2nd at Sedgefield (2m3½f, soft) last time, finishing 10 lengths clear of the 3rd.
🔹 Why: Lightly raced and improving with stamina to progress further. Trainer has a good record at placing horses well in low-grade handicaps.

🥉 Third Place: Jackpot Cash

Trainer: James Owen | Jockey: Alex Chadwick (5lb claim)
🔹 Key Form: Previously showed promise in novice hurdles but struggled over fences.
🔹 Why: Stable debut for James Owen (a trainer excellent with new recruits). Up in trip and back over hurdles, so could improve significantly. Market confidence would be interesting.

🎯 Each-Way Value Pick: Inchester D'amsyl
Trainer: Jonjo O’Neill | Jockey: Benjamin Macey (7lb claim)
🔹 Key Form: Has been poor but market vibes suggest something could be expected.
🔹 Why: Had backing from 22/1 into 11/2, which is too big a move to ignore. Well handicapped on past form and trainer/jockey booking intriguing. Could run a big race at a price.

🧐 Analysis:

• Owl Of Athens is the obvious pick – smashed a handicap last time and could follow up.

• Born In The West is progressing well, extra trip should suit, good place claims.

• Jackpot Cash could improve massively for a switch to James Owen’s yard and a return to hurdles.

• Inchester D'amsyl’s market move suggests a big run is expected despite recent poor form.

🏇 Betting Suggestions:
✅ Win Bet: Owl Of Athens (2/1)
✅ Each-Way Bet: Inchester D'amsyl (11/2)
✅ Forecast/Tricast Options: Owl Of Athens – Born In The West – Jackpot Cash

💡 Watch for late market moves, particularly on Mokoro (Dan Skelton’s runner), as his horses often improve on handicap debut.

🏇 Southwell (3m Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Asa
Trainer: Philip Kirby | Jockey: Joe Williamson
Key Form: Consistent over fences, winning impressively at Catterick last week and scoring at Market Rasen in December. Returns to hurdles on a 5lb higher mark but remains well-treated.
Why: She’s in top form, well-handicapped based on her chase rating, and should handle this trip comfortably. A strong traveller who stays well, she can dominate again.

2️⃣ Ocean Legacy
Trainer: Rebecca Menzies | Jockey: Nathan Moscrop
Key Form: Broke a long losing streak with an emphatic Sedgefield win (3m3f, soft), jumping well in blinkers and scoring by over six lengths.
Why: Up 8lb but still attractively weighted compared to old form. If reproducing the same effort, she will be in the mix, though the shorter trip is a slight question.

3️⃣ Our Pink Lady
Trainer: James Owen | Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies
Key Form: Dual Southwell winner last season but out of form this term. Now 4lb below her last winning mark and benefits from a significant jockey upgrade.
Why: The return to Southwell is a positive, and the drop in the weights makes her a live each-way contender if she rediscovers her best.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Roccos Inspiration
Trainer: Olly Murphy | Jockey: Kevin Brogan
Key Form: Well below form recently but now in first-time blinkers and stepping up in trip, which could unlock improvement.
Why: Lightly raced over this distance and on a lenient mark. If the headgear sharpens her up, she could outrun her odds and sneak a place.

🏇 16:30 Carlisle (2m4f Handicap Chase)

1️⃣ Tommy Combats
Trainer: Martin Todhunter | Jockey: Henry Brooke
Key Form: Progressive over fences, winning well at Hexham in December before finishing second at Ayr. Steps up in trip, which should bring more improvement.
Why: He’s lightly raced over fences and has been shaping like a horse who wants this distance. Well handicapped and with further progress likely, he’s the one to beat.

2️⃣ Diamond Dice
Trainer: Jonjo O’Neill | Jockey: Jonjo O’Neill Jr.
Key Form: Promising chase debut when second at Wincanton, finishing well clear of the rest. Has been a consistent hurdler and should build on that effort.
Why: He has the scope to progress over fences and comes from a yard in form. Likely to be in the mix again with a similar effort.

3️⃣ Catch Catchfire
Trainer: Ian Williams | Jockey: Charlie Todd
Key Form: Has taken well to chasing, winning at Leicester on debut and again at Sedgefield last time. Remains unexposed over fences.
Why: He’s steadily improving and still looks ahead of the handicapper. The slight drop in trip isn’t ideal, but his form makes him a major player.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Hello Judge
Trainer: Ann Hamilton | Jockey: Danny McMenamin
Key Form: Won this race last year off 5lb lower but hasn’t hit top form this season. However, he loves Carlisle and could bounce back.
Why: His course form is strong, and conditions should suit. If he can rediscover his best, he’s an interesting each-way player at bigger odds.

16:45 Southwell - 2m4f Novice Handicap Hurdle Analysis & Betting Insights

Race Overview

• Course: Southwell

• Distance: 2m4f

• Going: Good to Soft

• Class: 5

• Prize: £3,248

• Each Way Terms: 1/5 1-2-3

Key Contenders & Analysis

1️⃣ Gotthereintheend (3.6)

⭐ Top Pick

• Trainer: Robbie Llewellyn

• Jockey: Charlie Price (3lb)

• Form: 568-242

• Official Rating: 95

• Last Race: 2nd in a C&D handicap (beaten 4½L)

• Tactics: Stays on well late, improving steadily.

• Verdict: The form is rock solid from her latest run at Southwell over the same trip. That race has worked out well, and she was clear of the rest of the field. A 2lb rise is lenient, and she looks the one to beat.

⏳ Betting Advice: Win bet @ 3.6 (5/2 best price)

2️⃣ Mount Washington (5.8)

⭐ Main Danger

• Trainer: Evan Williams

• Jockey: Conor Ring

• Form: 45-6061

• Official Rating: 91

• Last Race: Won at Plumpton over 2m (soft)

• Tactics: Raced mid-division, stayed on well to win comfortably.

• Concerns: Steps up in trip to 2m4f – not proven at the distance.

⏳ Betting Advice: Win saver or place bet if odds drift to 6/1+

3️⃣ Passengerontheship (7.6)

🔹 Value Each-Way Play

• Trainer: Sam England

• Jockey: Jonathan England

• Form: 879-4

• Official Rating: 83

• Last Race: 4th in a competitive Wetherby handicap over 2m3f (heavy)

• Tactics: Likely to sit mid-division and stay on late.

• Verdict: Ran well on return from a long layoff and should improve for that run. The extra yardage should suit, and he could be staying on strongly at the finish.

⏳ Betting Advice: Each-way bet @ 7.6 (6/1 best price)

4️⃣ Jack Hoola (9.0)

🔹 Interesting at a price

• Trainer: Tom Lacey

• Jockey: Stan Sheppard

• Form: 8774

• Official Rating: 91

• Last Race: 4th in a 2m Southwell handicap on heavy

• Verdict: Yard is hitting form, and he has a fair handicap mark. Step up in trip could unlock improvement.

⏳ Betting Advice: Small win & place bet @ 9.0+ (8/1 best price)

Pace & Race Tactics

• Strong pace expected.

• Gotthereintheend is likely to race just off the leaders and stay on strongly.

• Mount Washington & Passengerontheship should be staying on late.

• Jack Hoola is a potential improver stepping up in trip.

Betting Strategy & Value Picks

✔️ WIN BET: Gotthereintheend @ 3.6 (5/2 best price)
✔️ WIN SAVER or PLACE BET: Mount Washington @ 5.8 (7/2 best price)
✔️ EACH-WAY VALUE: Passengerontheship @ 7.6 (6/1 best price)
✔️ LONGSHOT INTEREST: Jack Hoola @ 9.0+ (8/1 best price)

🏇 Tricast (Forecast/Tricast Betting)
1️⃣ Gotthereintheend
2️⃣ Mount Washington
3️⃣ Passengerontheship

Summary

• Gotthereintheend is the clear form horse and should win if she repeats her latest run.

• Mount Washington is a danger but needs to prove he stays the 2m4f trip.

• Passengerontheship offers each-way value and should improve from his last run.

• Jack Hoola is a potential dark horse with trainer form improving.

Final Verdict

🏆 BEST BET: GOTTHEREINTHEEND (3.6) – WIN
💰 VALUE EACH-WAY: PASSENGERONTHESHIP (7.6) – EW
⚠️ Potential Improver: JACK HOOLA (9.0)

Good luck, and bet responsibly! 🎯🏇💷

"May you never be a penny short of a full wallet."

ChatGPT said:

Now that is a blessing I’ll gladly take! 🙌 May your accas always land, your favourites stay strong, and your pint never run dry on a good race day. 🍻🏇💰

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥