Southwell Racing Preview – Expert Predictions & Best Bets for 14/02/25!

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
19th to 25th January 2025
Starting Bankroll £30 (24 days)
Top Up to Bankroll £30 12.02.25

Wk 1 £35 Wk 2 £32.01 Wk 3 -£18.12

WEEK 4 £37.21
Sun - -£07.50
Mon - £02.17
Tue - -£07.50
Wed - £07.50
Thrs - £07.00
Fri - £07.96
Sat - £0.00

Note from Coldjack: A profitable double clawing back some of this week's losses. I am hoping for more when we go again!

Trixie @4 Lines
Overnight Oats | Monsieur Fantaisie | Left Over Love
Stake £4.00 (4 x £1.00)
Returns £81.06 returned £15.44

Patent @7 Lines
Our Havana | Mamdoh | Master Of My Fate
Stake £3.50 WIN ONLY (7 x £0.50)
Returns £99.17 returned NO Returns

Stakes £7.50 Winning £7.96 (P/L) losing £00.00
Modest returns for the 'Trickey Trixie'
Patent punting for the 'zsar bomba' of booms!
(1pt = £1 Pick Your Own Point Level & Runners)

Critique & Debrief of Predictions from Blog Post Race Card

Including Trixie & Patent Bets, Swinger Observations

🔍 Trixie Bet #1: The Consistency Play

1️⃣ Overnight Oats (1:00 Southwell) - 🏆 WON (11/4 Fav) ✅

• Justified strong confidence, proving his class at Southwell.

• Good tactical ride from Joe Bradnam.

• Confidence Rating: 4★ – Fully justified.

2️⃣ Monsieur Fantaisie (2:00 Southwell) - ❌ Unplaced

• A poor run despite strong Southwell record.

• Market drift was a bad sign. Likely failed due to racing too freely again.

• Confidence Rating: 4★ – Overestimated suitability.

3️⃣ Left Over Love (2:30 Southwell) - 🏆 WON (5/2 Fav) ✅

• Delivered as expected, though inexperienced again.

• Race fitness and step up to 7f were spot on.

• Confidence Rating: 4★ – Fully justified.

📊 Trixie Performance: 2 Winners / 3

• Two winners covered the stake and brought a small profit.

• Monsieur Fantaisie let down the treble.

• Verdict: Decent return but no full payout.

🔍 Trixie Bet #2: The All-Ways Patent (Higher Risk)

1️⃣ Our Havana (3:00 Southwell) - ❌ Unplaced

• Looked promising but failed to finish well.

• Drifted in the market pre-race, which was a warning sign.

• Confidence Rating: 3★ – Too much faith in last-time-out form.

2️⃣ Mamdoh (4:00 Southwell) - 🥈 2nd (4/1 JF) ✅ (Place Only Bet Would Have Landed)

• Ran very well but just found one too good.

• Confidence Rating: 3★ – Good effort, unlucky.

3️⃣ Master Of My Fate (4:30 Southwell) - ❌ Unplaced

• No four-timer, outpaced early and never in contention.

• The weight rise may have caught up with him.

• Confidence Rating: 3★ – Overestimated progressive curve.

📊 Patent Performance: 0 Winners / 3

• One place (Mamdoh), but not enough for profit in a Win-Only bet.

• Verdict: A disappointing return due to a riskier structure.

🔍 Swinger Observations (Key Each-Way & Exotic Bet Notes)

• 1:00 Southwell (Overnight Oats, Star Pupil) – A Near Perfect Call

  • 1st Overnight Oats (11/4) ✅

  • 4th Star Pupil (9/2) – Just outside the places.

  • **Swinger Bet (Oats + Star Pupil) would have just missed but a placepot starter.

• 2:30 Southwell (Novice Stakes – Left Over Love & The New Bay Pearl)

  • 1st Left Over Love (5/2 Fav) ✅

  • 2nd The New Bay Pearl (10/3) ✅

  • 3rd Bintjan (11/2) ✅

  • Swinger & Trifecta landed. 🔥

• 4:00 Southwell (Mamdoh, Leon Trotsky, Rubellite)

  • 1st Leon Trotsky (4/1 JF) ✅

  • 2nd Mamdoh (4/1 JF) ✅

  • 3rd Rubellite (5/1) ✅

  • Brilliant result for exotic bets – Swinger, Trifecta & Forecast all hit. 🎯

• 4:30 Southwell (Sanat, Counsel, Rhythm N Hooves)

  • 1st Sanat (8/1)

  • 2nd Counsel (9/2)

  • 3rd Rhythm N Hooves (9/2)

  • Another solid swinger result.

📊 Swinger Performance:
✅ Excellent in 2:30, 4:00, 4:30 races – Forecast & Tricast success.
❌ Missed narrowly in 1:00 race (Star Pupil 4th).

🔍 Race-by-Race Breakdown

1:00 Southwell (1m Apprentice Handicap)

✅ Prediction Accuracy: Very High
🏆 Winner: Overnight Oats (11/4 Fav) – Tipped as a strong play.
4️⃣ Star Pupil (9/2) finished just outside the places.
🔍 Market Signals: Support was steady for the right horse.

1:30 Southwell (7f Handicap)

❌ Prediction Accuracy: Poor
None of the top 3 selections placed.
📉 Biggest Miss: Lumenbourg won (5/1) – Wasn't on the shortlist.

2:00 Southwell (7f Handicap)

❌ Prediction Accuracy: Missed the Key Winner
🏆 Ignac Lamar (3/1) won – Not tipped.
📉 Monsieur Fantaisie (Selection) disappointed.
🔍 Warning Sign: Market drift on the selection.

2:30 Southwell (7f Novice Stakes)

✅ Prediction Accuracy: Excellent
🏆 Left Over Love won (5/2 Fav) – Strongly tipped.
🥈 The New Bay Pearl (10/3) placed – Tipped second.
🥉 Bintjan (11/2) placed – Tipped third.
📊 Forecast & Swinger landed!

3:00 Southwell (7f Handicap)

❌ Prediction Accuracy: Mixed
🏆 Apiarist (11/2) won – Wildcard pick landed but not a main selection.
🥈 Royal Zabeel (13/8 Fav) placed – Tipped but not the winner.
🔍 Our Havana (Selection) unplaced – Poor.

3:30 Southwell (6f Classified Stakes)

✅ Prediction Accuracy: Decent
🏆 Combustion (10/3) won – Tipped second.
🥉 Neptune Legend (15/8 Fav) placed – Tipped but drifted slightly.
📉 Missed Fast Flo (66/1) placing.

4:00 Southwell (2m Handicap)

✅ Prediction Accuracy: Fantastic
🏆 Leon Trotsky (4/1 JF) – Wildcard pick landed!
🥈 Mamdoh (4/1 JF) – Main selection placed!
🥉 Rubellite (5/1) – Another tipped place!
📊 Swinger & Tricast both landed!

4:30 Southwell (5f Handicap)

✅ Prediction Accuracy: Solid
🏆 Sanat (8/1) – Outsider won but was overlooked.
🥈 Counsel (9/2) – Placed, tipped second.
🥉 Rhythm N Hooves (9/2) – Tipped wildcard & placed.
📊 Swinger success here.

Final Verdict:

1️⃣ Trixie Bet #1 – ✅ Profitable, but no full treble payout.
2️⃣ Trixie Bet #2 – ❌ A bust, Patent structure didn’t work.
3️⃣ Swinger Bets – ✅ Brilliant in 2:30, 4:00, 4:30 races.
4️⃣ General Accuracy – Mixed. Some great reads (1:00, 2:30, 4:00) but some poor races (1:30, 2:00).

🔍 Lesson for Next Time:

• More focus on Betfair drifts before finalising selections.

• Consider each-way angles more in riskier bets (Patent could’ve been safer).

🚀 Overall: Good value spotted, but refinement needed for riskier plays.

Pre Race Predictions

Based on the provided race analyses and considering the criteria for both Trixie bets, here are the selections:

Trixie Bet #1: The Consistency Play

1. Overnight Oats (1:00 Southwell)

   • Recent Form & Reasoning: C&D winner who landed a four-timer last year. Ran a strong race when second at Wolverhampton (7.2f) last time despite pulling hard early. Returning to his favoured track and trip, a repeat of his latest performance should see him bang in the mix.

   • Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆

2. Monsieur Fantaisie (2:00 Southwell)

   • Recent Form & Reasoning: Threw in a rare poor run at Newcastle last time but is much better suited to this track. He has a fantastic Southwell record with two wins and two seconds from his four visits. Saves his best for this specialist trip and Jo Mason can get a good tune ... .

   • Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆

3. Left Over Love (2:30 Southwell)

   • Recent Form & Reasoning: Runner-up on both starts, including when heavily backed at Lingfield last time but still showing signs of inexperience. The step back up to 7f should be ideal. With natural progression, she looks the one to beat in what is not the deepest novice contest.

   • Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆

Bet Type: Trixie (3 Doubles + 1 Treble) – 4 total bets.

Expected Outcome Breakdown:

• Two winners recover the stake or bring small profit.

• Three winners multiply the stake significantly.

Trixie Bet #2: The All-Ways Patent (Higher-Risk Play) **WIN ONLY TODAY**

1. Our Havana (3:00 Southwell)

   • Recent Form & Reasoning: Impressive C&D winner last time out, making significant improvement after settling better. That was only his second start since a break, and further progress is likely. Looks to be peaking at the right time, and his ability to handle this track is a big plus.

   • Confidence Rating: ★★★☆☆

2. 
   Mamdoh (4:00 Southwell)

   • Recent Form & Reasoning: Broke his maiden tag last time out at Wolverhampton over 14f, showing a good attitude to battle to the line. The first-time cheekpieces seemed to spark improvement last time, and if he responds again, he should be involved. The extra two furlongs here could suit, and he remains unexposed over staying distances.

   • Confidence Rating: ★★★☆☆

3. 
   Master Of My Fate (4:30 Southwell)

   • Recent Form & Reasoning: Bidding for a four-timer after winning a 6-runner handicap over C&D last time. Uncomplicated and has been thriving on the AW. He’s in red-hot form and clearly loves this surface. Up another 5lb, but he keeps improving and should be right in the mix again.

   • Confidence Rating: ★★★☆☆

Bet Type: Patent (7 bets: 3 singles, 3 doubles, 1 treble).

Expected Outcome Breakdown:

• One winner covers most of the stake.

• Two winners bring profit.

• All three winners generate a strong return.

Please remember that while these selections are based on thorough analysis, horse racing outcomes can be unpredictable.

📌 Gamble Responsibly!

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which 'obby Picks (dropping Hs since the dog chewed my denture) are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.
Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

Race-by-Race Predictions

🏇 Race 1 - 13:00 Southwell (1m Apprentice Handicap)

1️⃣ Onslow Gardens
Trainer: Richard Hannon | Jockey: Tyrese Cameron
Key Form: Responded positively to first-time blinkers when an eye-catching third at Wolverhampton (8.6f) last month, showing much better fluency in running.
Why: If the headgear works again, this five-year-old looks primed to strike. He’s well-treated on past form and the step back to a mile should suit. The market suggests he’s well-fancied, and he’s capable of progressing further in this grade.

2️⃣ Overnight Oats
Trainer: James Owen | Jockey: Joe Bradnam
Key Form: C&D winner who landed a four-timer last year. Ran a strong race when second at Wolverhampton (7.2f) last time despite pulling hard early.
Why: He’s got the class for this, especially returning to his favoured track and trip. A repeat of his latest performance should see him bang in the mix. If settling better, he’ll be dangerous late on.

3️⃣ Star Pupil
Trainer: Richard Hughes | Jockey: Ethan Jones
Key Form: Won at Chelmsford in January and finished a creditable second under a penalty at Southwell (7.1f) last time.
Why: He’s a consistent type who’s holding his form well. Blinkers have helped sharpen him up, and he remains competitively handicapped. Should be in contention turning for home.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Masterofgreygoose
Trainer: Joseph Parr | Jockey: Warren Fentiman
Key Form: Lightly raced and shaped well when not given a hard time at Lingfield last month. Has previously traded low in running.
Why: He’s still unexposed and should come forward for that recent run. If things fall right, he could surprise a few at bigger odds. Worth keeping onside as a potential improver.

🏇 Race 2 - 13:30 Southwell (7f Handicap)

1️⃣ Hawajes
Trainer: Tony Carroll | Jockey: Jack Doughty
Key Form: Blinkers worked a treat when running out a convincing winner over this C&D 15 days ago. Has been improving steadily in recent starts.
Why: He looks to have turned a corner with the application of headgear and is in a weak enough race to double up. If he runs to the same level as last time, he’ll be tough to beat.

2️⃣ Northbound
Trainer: Peter Niven | Jockey: Joanna Mason
Key Form: Snapped a losing streak with a well-timed win over a mile at Southwell last week. Looks well-treated under a penalty.
Why: The return to 7f should be no issue, and he comes here in winning form. He’s got course experience and could be peaking at just the right time.

3️⃣ Spartan Fighter
Trainer: Antony Brittain | Jockey: Cam Hardie
Key Form: C&D winner who ran a solid third at Newcastle over 6f 10 days ago, shaping as if he’s ready to strike again.
Why: He’s been running consistently in higher grades and should appreciate this return to Southwell. If he gets a strong pace to aim at, he’ll be finishing well.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Clyde Bay
Trainer: David Evans | Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Key Form: Has shown glimpses of ability in the past and now makes his first start for a new stable. Drops in trip, which could suit.
Why: He’s an unreliable type but has ability, and any market support should be noted. New surroundings might bring improvement, making him an interesting outsider.

🏇 Race 3 - 14:00 Southwell (7f Handicap)

1️⃣ Monsieur Fantaisie
Trainer: Peter Niven | Jockey: Joanna Mason
Key Form: C&D winner in January, following up with a strong second at Newcastle before racing too freely when down the field last time.
Why: He thrives at Southwell, with a solid record here (2121). Back at his favoured venue, he should bounce back from his latest effort. If he settles better, he’ll be tough to beat in this field.

2️⃣ Crocus Time
Trainer: Richard Hannon | Jockey: Joe Leavy
Key Form: Career-low mark after showing promise at Chelmsford last month. Previously placed off much higher ratings.
Why: Still a maiden but now dangerously well-handicapped. Blinkers seemed to have a positive effect last time, and if she builds on that, she could be a big player.

3️⃣ Kodebreaker
Trainer: Michael Herrington | Jockey: Jason Hart
Key Form: C&D winner who ran a solid third over this trip last month before finishing sixth over a longer distance last time.
Why: He’s capable at this level and back at his ideal trip. If given a good pace to aim at, he can challenge in the closing stages.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Cammy
Trainer: Tony Carroll | Jockey: William Carson
Key Form: Unexposed after a long layoff and now makes stable debut for a trainer who does well with fresh runners.
Why: He’s shown very little so far but could be an interesting one to watch if the market speaks in his favour. A new yard and fresh legs might bring improvement.

🏇 Race 4 - 14:30 Southwell (7f Novice Stakes)

1️⃣ Left Over Love
Trainer: Richard Hannon | Jockey: S M Levey
Key Form: Runner-up on both starts, including when heavily backed at Lingfield last time but still showing signs of inexperience.
Why: She has been knocking on the door and the step back up to 7f should be ideal. With natural progression, she looks the one to beat in what is not the deepest novice contest.

2️⃣ Bintjan
Trainer: Kevin Philippart de Foy | Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Key Form: Well-bred filly who has shaped well in three runs, finishing third at Wolverhampton over 7f last time.
Why: Connections have opted to keep her in novice company rather than progressing to handicaps, which suggests they are confident she can win at this level. She has the experience to be a strong player.

3️⃣ The New Bay Pearl
Trainer: Roger Varian | Jockey: J Mitchell
Key Form: Took a step forward when second in a 7f maiden at Newcastle last time and should have more to offer.
Why: She improved significantly from her debut and should continue progressing with another run under her belt. Likely to be in the mix.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Blazing Spirit
Trainer: Charlie Appleby | Jockey: D C Costello
Key Form: Expensive purchase who showed ability on debut when finishing fifth at Yarmouth over a mile but pulled too hard.
Why: She drops back to 7f and wears a hood for the first time, which could help her settle better. Represents a top stable, and a big improvement would not be a surprise.

🏇 Race 5 - 15:00 Southwell (7f Handicap)

1️⃣ Royal Zabeel
Trainer: Michael Appleby | Jockey: Alistair Rawlinson
Key Form: Rapidly improving and comes here chasing a hat-trick, having won impressively at Wolverhampton last time. Prior to that, he was a commanding winner over C&D, proving his liking for this track and trip.
Why: This progressive 4-year-old has been thriving since joining Michael Appleby, and his recent performances suggest he still has more to offer. The booking of Alistair Rawlinson is a positive, as he knows the horse well. With a good draw and a strong travelling style, he looks primed to complete the three-timer.

2️⃣ Yorkshire
Trainer: Edward Bethell | Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Key Form: Ended last season in flying form with back-to-back wins at Wolverhampton. Has an excellent record fresh, so the 83-day absence is not a concern.
Why: A versatile sort with a turn of foot, he’s got the class to be highly competitive in this field. The tongue strap remains on, and with a strong record when returning from a break, he should be in the mix late on.

3️⃣ Our Havana
Trainer: Richard Fahey | Jockey: Cam Hardie
Key Form: Impressive C&D winner last time out, making significant improvement after settling better. That was only his second start since a break, and further progress is likely.
Why: Looks to be peaking at the right time, and his ability to handle this track is a big plus. The race is likely to be run at a solid pace, which will suit his strong-finishing style. Represents each-way value.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Apiarist
Trainer: Kevin Ryan | Jockey: R Havlin
Key Form: Excused last run when keen under an inexperienced rider. Prior to that, he showed good form, winning a strong Chelmsford handicap over a mile.
Why: A return to 7f on a sharper track should help him settle better, and he has enough raw ability to surprise at decent odds. If he gets the race run to suit, he could swoop late.

🏇 Race 6 - 15:30 Southwell (6f Class Stks)

1️⃣ Neptune Legend
Trainer: Tony Carroll | Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Key Form: Back to winning ways over C&D last time, taking advantage of a strong pace and finishing powerfully. Has now won three times in the past year and looks to be peaking again.
Why: This race should set up nicely for him again, with likely front-runners ensuring a solid gallop. He’s in top form, proven at this level, and gets the services of the in-form Rossa Ryan. A repeat of last week’s effort should see him tough to beat.

2️⃣ Combustion
Trainer: John Butler | Jockey: Joey Haynes
Key Form: Showed a big step forward when dead-heating for victory at Wolverhampton over 6f last time, proving his ability to dig deep in a battle.
Why: He’s clearly improving, and if he can reproduce that last effort, he’ll be a major player again. Has a handy draw and should be in the thick of things late on.

3️⃣ Miss Billie
Trainer: Ivan Furtado | Jockey: Jason Hart
Key Form: Finished second to Kapparis Kid over C&D last time when well-supported in the market, travelling strongly before just getting outpaced late.
Why: The blinkers seemed to have a positive effect last time, and she should be well-suited by a strongly run 6f again. She’s one of the more progressive types in the field and rates an each-way player.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Lezardrieux
Trainer: Grant Tuer | Jockey: S H James
Key Form: Ran a solid race when second in a Newcastle sprint over 5f last time, keeping on well. Now steps back up to 6f, which should suit better.
Why: He’s been running consistently without winning, and if he gets a good trip into the race, he could be dangerous at bigger odds. A lively outsider in an open affair.

🏇 Race 7 - 16:00 Southwell (2m Handicap)

1️⃣ Rubellite
Trainer: Philip Kirby | Jockey: Jason Hart
Key Form: Enjoying a strong run of form, winning two of her last three starts, including a battling success over 12.1f here last time despite encountering trouble in running.
Why: She’s thriving at the moment, and the way she finished off her last race suggests this step up in trip could bring further improvement. Jason Hart retains the ride, and with a clear run this time, she’s a major player.

2️⃣ Mamdoh
Trainer: Alice Haynes | Jockey: Luke Morris
Key Form: Broke his maiden tag last time out at Wolverhampton over 14f, showing a good attitude to battle to the line.
Why: The first-time cheekpieces seemed to spark improvement last time, and if he responds again, he should be involved. The extra two furlongs here could suit, and he remains unexposed over staying distances.

3️⃣ Leon Trotsky
Trainer: Richard Hughes | Jockey: Sean Levey
Key Form: Still a maiden but showed promise when third to Rubellite over 12.1f here last time, staying on late.
Why: The step up to 2m could unlock further improvement. He ran his best race yet over shorter and looks one of the more progressive types in this contest.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Lumberjack
Trainer: Amy Murphy | Jockey: Darragh Keenan
Key Form: Has hit the frame in his last three starts, including a solid third over 16.6f at Wolverhampton, running on well.
Why: He’s yet to win, but his consistency suggests he could sneak into the places again. If he gets a good pace to aim at, he might outrun his odds.

🏇 Race 8 - 16:30 Southwell (5f Handicap)

1️⃣ Master Of My Fate
Trainer: John & Sean Quinn | Jockey: Jason Hart
Key Form: Bidding for a four-timer after winning a 6-runner handicap over C&D last time. Uncomplicated and has been thriving on the AW.
Why: He’s in red-hot form and clearly loves this surface. Up another 5lb, but he keeps improving and should be right in the mix again. With his straightforward running style, he’ll be hard to peg back.

2️⃣ Jumbeau
Trainer: Tom Clover | Jockey: Jack Doughty
Key Form: Showed plenty of ability last summer, including strong performances at York and Ascot. Fourth on her return behind Master Of My Fate last time and should improve for that run.
Why: She has the class to turn the tables if fitter this time. She wasn’t far behind the favourite last time and is capable of reversing the form with a strong finish.

3️⃣ Counsel
Trainer: Michael Appleby | Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Key Form: Won back-to-back races at Wolverhampton and Lingfield in the past week. Faces a quick turnaround under a double penalty.
Why: Clearly in form, but this will be his third race in quick succession. If he has recovered well, he’ll be a big player, though the 5lb rise is a challenge.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Rhythm N Hooves
Trainer: Robert Cowell | Jockey: Luke Morris
Key Form: Won over C&D last time, but his profile is inconsistent. Cheekpieces seemed to help him travel better in that win.
Why: If he’s in the same mood as last time, he could be dangerous. Worth considering as an each-way contender at decent odds.

"May you never be a penny short of a full wallet."

ChatGPT said:

Now that is a blessing I’ll gladly take! 🙌 May your accas always land, your favourites stay strong, and your pint never run dry on a good race day. 🍻🏇💰

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥