Taunton Preview - 4th February 2025

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
Starting Bankroll £30
Top Ups to Bankroll £00.00
19th to 25th January 2025
Wk 1 - £35 - Wk 2 - £32.01

Week 3 - £28.50
Sun - £03.56
Mon - -£0.64
Tue - - £7.00
Wed - -£0.00
Thrs - -£0.00
Fri - -£0.00
Sat - -£0.00

Note from Coldjack: The first 2 weeks have returned a disappointing £7.01 P/L but it IS better than a poke in the eye!

Trixie @4 Lines
Go West | Admiralty House | Anno Power
Stake £4.00 (4 x £1.00)
Returns £79.99 wipeout -£4

(Each Way) Patent @14 Lines
Mostly Sunny | Pimlico Point | Tom Taggle
Stake £3.50 (14 x £0.25)
Returns £686.66 Almost got wiped out £0.50
Stakes £7.50 Winning 50p losing £7

modest returns for the 'Trickey Trixie'
patent punting for the 'zsar bomba' of booms!

🏇 Taunton Raceday Review: Post-Race Analysis & Betting Debrief (4th February 2025)

Welcome back, Hobbyists! After an eventful day at Taunton, it’s time to break down the action, review the bets, and uncover the key lessons from the card. We’ll dissect both Trixie and Patent bets, analyse race dynamics, highlight missed opportunities, and close with insights on Swinger and Forecast (F/C) betting strategies.

🎯 Trixie Bet #1: The Consistency Play – Performance Review

Selections:

1️⃣ Go West (13:25 - 2m3f Novices’ Hurdle) – ✅ 1st (13/8)

• Race Dynamics: Perfectly executed ride from Harry Cobden. Travelled strongly, stalked the pace, and quickened smartly when asked.

• Outcome: Delivered as expected, justifying the Nicholls/Cobden combo's reliability.

• Strategic Insight: Textbook case where solid form and trainer-jockey stats aligned for a confident win.

2️⃣ Admiralty House (13:55 - 2m Handicap Hurdle) – ❌ Unplaced

• Race Dynamics: Never looked comfortable. The pace wasn’t overly taxing, but Admiralty House couldn’t find the necessary gears late on.

• What Went Wrong? Despite looking well-handicapped, he lacked tactical speed in the closing stages. The drop in the weights may have signalled connections’ concerns rather than an advantage.

• Lesson Learned: Be cautious when a horse’s ‘well-handicapped’ narrative isn’t supported by strong recent finishing efforts.

3️⃣ Anno Power (14:55 - 2m Novices’ Hurdle) – ❌ 3rd (2/5 Fav)

• Race Dynamics: Travelled well but lacked the finishing kick. Beaten fair and square by Tour Ovalie, who was sharper and tactically superior on the day.

• Key Takeaway: Overconfidence in unbeaten profiles can be costly. The soft ground may have blunted her turn of foot, a factor overlooked pre-race.

💡 Summary:

• Outcome: Only Go West delivered. The doubles and treble were unsuccessful.

• Reflection: While Go West was a strong anchor, over-reliance on reputations (Admiralty House & Anno Power) highlighted the need to factor in current race-day dynamics over historical form.

🚀 Trixie Bet #2: The All-Ways Patent (Higher-Risk Play) – Performance Review

Selections:

1️⃣ Pimlico Point (14:25 - 2m7f Handicap Chase) – ❌ Unplaced

• Race Dynamics: Jumped sketchily and struggled to maintain rhythm. Ground conditions and race fitness seemed to catch him out.

• Missed Signal: Market drift pre-race indicated a lack of confidence. Ignored at our peril.

• Lesson: Horses with ‘scope for improvement’ need strong in-running performances to justify the risk. Pimlico Point didn’t show enough prior evidence of that.

2️⃣ Mostly Sunny (13:55 - 2m Handicap Hurdle) – ❌ Unplaced

• Race Dynamics: Never travelled fluently, suggesting he needed the run after a break.

• Critical Insight: Despite the Skelton yard’s reputation for ready runners off layoffs, the market drift pre-race was telling.

• Reflection: Betting against market sentiment, especially for fresh horses, often leads to disappointment.

3️⃣ Tom Taggle (16:05 - 2m3f Handicap Hurdle) – ❌ 4th (5/2 Fav)

• Race Dynamics: Ran prominently but faded late. Lacked the stamina kick in soft conditions.

• Missed Opportunity: The withdrawal of Diesel Line altered race dynamics significantly, favouring hold-up horses.

• Lesson: Late non-runners can change race complexion dramatically. Adaptation is key.

💡 Summary:

• Outcome: No winners from the Patent. The singles, doubles, and treble all missed.

• Reflection: The Patent bet strategy cushioned risk theoretically but lacked substance without a single winner. Market signals were clear, but confidence in selection logic overrode them.

📊 Key Race-by-Race Analysis & Missed Opportunities

🏇 Race 1 – 13:25 Novices’ Hurdle

• Result: Go West (✅ 1st)

• Value Missed: Exacta with Not So Woolly paid £3.50—a low return but predictable.

• Swinger/F/C Angle: The Trifecta (£18) was value if including Super Saint (28/1) as a wildcard. Ignored the outsider potential here.

🏇 Race 2 – 13:55 Handicap Hurdle

• Result: Saint Anapolino (✅ 1st, not selected)

• Missed Opportunity: Saint Anapolino was flagged as a danger but not backed. Market support late suggested confidence.

• F/C Angle: The Forecast (£62.34) with Walk On High (18/1) was exceptional value—a clear miss.

🏇 Race 3 – 14:25 Handicap Chase

• Result: Pimlico Point (❌ Unplaced)

• Key Reflection: Jupiter Allen (9/1) surprised, but The Doyen Chief (2nd) showed consistency.

• Swinger Opportunity: The Doyen Chief with Jupiter Allen would’ve provided a solid Swinger return. Missed by focusing too narrowly on Pimlico Point.

🏇 Race 4 – 14:55 Novices’ Hurdle

• Result: Anno Power (❌ 3rd)

• Lesson: Tour Ovalie (9/4) outclassed the favourite. Should have been considered for at least a place in combination bets.

• F/C Value: £19.93 wasn’t huge, but it was easy to hit with a Tour Ovalie/Anno Power combo.

🏇 Race 5 – 15:30 Novices’ Handicap Chase

• Result: Siam Park (✅ 2nd as Wildcard)

• Key Insight: Siam Park’s strong finish proved the value of wildcard picks.

• Swinger Win: A Siam Park/Palawan Du Mazet combo would’ve delivered solid returns.

🏇 Race 6 – 16:05 Handicap Hurdle

• Result: Tom Taggle (❌ 4th)

• Missed Angle: Rodney (14/1) won at a big price—highlighting how handicaps can turn into value-finders for overlooked horses.

• Swinger Miss: No combination covering Rodney—big oversight.

🏇 Race 7 – 16:40 Handicap Hurdle

• Result: Grenadier Jed (✅ 1st as Wildcard)

• Key Takeaway: Sometimes the wildcard strikes gold! A great reminder to trust instincts on progressive types stepping up in handicaps.

🧠 Strategic Lessons Learned

1. Market Movements Matter: Late drifts for Mostly Sunny and Pimlico Point were red flags. Don’t ignore them.

2. Handicap Dynamics Shift Quickly: Late non-runners like Diesel Line change pace dynamics—react accordingly.

3. Wildcard Wisdom: Grenadier Jed and Siam Park delivered, proving the value of speculative picks at good odds.

4. Forecast Focus: Simple combos like Tour Ovalie/Anno Power and The Doyen Chief/Jupiter Allen offered excellent value with minimal risk.

🏆 Final Thoughts for Hobbyists

While the Trixie and Patent bets fell flat, there were bright spots in the wildcard selections and lessons learned from race dynamics. Moving forward:

• Be flexible with in-play market shifts.

• Embrace wildcard selections in open handicaps.

• Always consider a Swinger or Forecast when strong contenders are clear.

Let’s regroup, refine, and come back stronger next time. 🐎💼

Hobby Predictions

🏇 Trixie Bet #1: The Consistency Play

Focus: Reliable form, strong partnerships, and high-probability selections.

1️⃣ Go West (13:25 Taunton - 2m3f Novices’ Hurdle)

• Trainer: Paul Nicholls | Jockey: Harry Cobden

• Key Factors:

  • Bumper winner turned successful hurdler.

  • Strong connections (Nicholls/Cobden strike rate is excellent).

  • Proven stamina with room for improvement after last win.

• Recent Form: ✅ 1st at Fakenham (2m4f)

• Confidence Rating: ★★★★★

2️⃣ Admiralty House (13:55 Taunton - 2m Handicap Hurdle)

• Trainer: Alan King | Jockey: Phillip Armson

• Key Factors:

  • Solid 3rd at Haydock in testing conditions.

  • Lightly raced with scope for improvement.

  • Dropped 1 lb, suggesting well-handicapped potential.

• Recent Form: 3rd at Haydock (Competitive Field)

• Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆

3️⃣ Anno Power (14:55 Taunton - 2m Novices’ Hurdle)

• Trainer: Harry Fry | Jockey: J J Burke

• Key Factors:

  • Unbeaten record in bumpers and hurdles debut.

  • Powerful finisher with a proven turn of foot.

  • Expected improvement with race fitness.

• Recent Form: ✅ 1st at Sandown (Novices’ Hurdle)

• Confidence Rating: ★★★★★

💰 Trixie #1 Summary:

• Bets: 4 (3 Doubles + 1 Treble)

• Focus: Secure at least two winners for a strong return.

• Expected Outcome: High probability of landing doubles, with a treble being very realistic given the form and partnerships involved.

🚀 Trixie Bet #2: The All-Ways Patent (Higher-Risk Play)

Focus: Higher odds with strong upside potential.

1️⃣ Pimlico Point (14:25 Taunton - 2m7f Handicap Chase)

• Trainer: Kerry Lee | Jockey: R Patrick

• Key Factors:

  • Lightly raced with scope for improvement.

  • Strong stayer with solid jumping credentials.

  • Each-way value with strong finish potential.

• Recent Form: 2nd at Uttoxeter (Close Finish)

• Confidence Rating: ★★★☆☆

2️⃣ Mostly Sunny (13:55 Taunton - 2m Handicap Hurdle)

• Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Tristan Durrell

• Key Factors:

  • Returns fresh after a break, often a positive for this yard.

  • Proven over similar trips with a strong finish style.

  • Potential to improve significantly off a fresh mark.

• Recent Form: 2nd at Ludlow (Consistent Type)

• Confidence Rating: ★★★☆☆

3️⃣ Tom Taggle (16:05 Taunton - 2m3f Handicap Hurdle)

• Trainer: Evan Williams | Jockey: Adam Wedge

• Key Factors:

  • Lightly raced with potential improvement in handicaps.

  • Showed a spark of promise last time out (4th at Hereford).

  • Strong jockey booking suggests confidence from connections.

• Recent Form: 4th at Hereford (Stepping Forward)

• Confidence Rating: ★★☆☆☆

💰 Trixie #2 Summary (Patent Bet):

• Bets: 7 (3 Singles + 3 Doubles + 1 Treble)

• Focus: One winner should cover much of the stake; two will bring profit; all three winners equal a significant return.

• Expected Outcome: A mix of higher odds selections with genuine upside. The singles cushion the risk, while the doubles and treble aim for larger profits.

🏆 Final Thoughts:

• Trixie #1 (Consistency Play): Strong, reliable selections likely to secure multiple wins.

• Trixie #2 (Higher-Risk Patent): Bold plays with bigger potential payouts, ideal for those looking for value bets.

Let’s aim for a winning day! 🎯

The Full Tauton Card

Note from AJ the Hobbyist:
I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which Hobby picks are drifters or steamers.
to see which Hobby picks are drifters or steamers.

🏇 Race 1 - 13:25 Taunton (2m3f Novices’ Hurdle)

1️⃣ Not So Woolly
Trainer: Joe Tizzard | Jockey: Brendan Powell
Key Form: Solid third in a competitive 2m5f Ascot maiden hurdle in December, showing strong staying potential and progressive form.
Why: Not So Woolly has been knocking on the door with consistent efforts and that Ascot third reads well in the context of this race. The drop back in trip should suit, and with Brendan Powell back in the saddle, he looks primed to get off the mark.

2️⃣ Go West
Trainer: Paul Nicholls | Jockey: Harry Cobden
Key Form: Bumper winner who made a successful hurdling breakthrough at Fakenham over 2m4f in December.
Why: Trained by the in-form Paul Nicholls and partnered with top jockey Harry Cobden, Go West showed improvement after a long break to win last time. He should come on for that run and be a major player here, especially with proven stamina.

3️⃣ Jurancon
Trainer: David Pipe | Jockey: Jack Tudor
Key Form: Versatile performer with two novice hurdle wins, including a decisive victory at Newbury last time out despite carrying a penalty.
Why: Jurancon’s form is rock-solid, having won 2 of his last 4 hurdle starts. Although he’s shouldering a penalty, his consistency and sharpness over similar trips make him a strong contender for a placing.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Jaipaletemps
Trainer: David Pipe | Jockey: David Noonan
Key Form: French import with a recent third in a 12-runner claiming hurdle at Cagnes-Sur-Mer, showing adaptability on soft ground.
Why: Making his debut for David Pipe, Jaipaletemps has valuable chasing experience from France, which could give him a tactical edge here. A slight unknown quantity, but he’s an interesting each-way play at bigger odds with potential for improvement.

🏇 Race 2 - 13:55 Taunton (2m Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Admiralty House
Trainer: Alan King | Jockey: Phillip Armson
Key Form: Strong third in a competitive 2m handicap at Haydock on heavy ground in December, suggesting better to come under less testing conditions.
Why: Admiralty House is lightly raced with a solid profile, and the slight ease in ground should play to his strengths. Dropped 1 lb in the ratings, he looks poised to capitalise on a favourable mark, with the potential to return to winning ways.

2️⃣ Saint Anapolino
Trainer: Philip Hobbs & Johnson White | Jockey: M G Nolan
Key Form: Career-best effort to win a 14-runner novice hurdle at Exeter (16.7f, heavy) just 22 days ago.
Why: An improving type who’s handled testing ground well, Saint Anapolino makes his handicap debut off what could be a lenient mark. He’s shown consistency, and with potential for further progression, he’s a serious contender.

3️⃣ Campaign Trail
Trainer: Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls | Jockey: Thomas Bellamy
Key Form: Impressive winner on hurdles debut at Doncaster in November and a solid third in a novice event at Wetherby last time out.
Why: Campaign Trail steps into handicap company with untapped potential. His flat stamina suggests he’ll stay strongly, and with more experience under his belt, he could surprise at good value.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Mostly Sunny
Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Tristan Durrell
Key Form: Dual hurdle winner and runner-up at Ludlow over 2m5f in October, showing solid consistency for the Skelton yard.
Why: After a break, Mostly Sunny returns fresh, which could see him bounce back to form. A versatile type with a decent engine, he’s one to watch at an appealing price, especially if the race turns tactical.

🏇 Race 3 - 14:25 Taunton (2m7f Handicap Chase)

1️⃣ The Doyen Chief
Trainer: Alan King | Jockey: Thomas Bellamy
Key Form: Solid third in competitive Exeter handicap chase over 2m3f in December, with form suggesting the step up in trip will suit.
Why: The Doyen Chief has been consistent over fences and this longer distance could unlock further improvement. Alan King’s yard is in good form, and with proven staying power, he looks primed to get his head in front.

2️⃣ Stormy Flight
Trainer: Jeremy Scott | Jockey: Lorcan Williams
Key Form: Narrow second at Exeter behind an improving rival in December, showing strong late staying ability.
Why: A dual Exeter winner last season, Stormy Flight has the stamina and class to be a big player here. If he can avoid the jumping errors that caused his recent unseat, he’ll be right there at the finish.

3️⃣ Mount Gay Run
Trainer: Keiran Burke | Jockey: Joe Anderson
Key Form: Fourth in a competitive maiden hurdle at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day after showing promise in listed company.
Why: Quickly switched to fences, Mount Gay Run’s background in bumpers and hurdles suggests untapped potential. If he takes to chasing well, he could surprise with an improved performance at decent odds.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Pimlico Point
Trainer: Kerry Lee | Jockey: R Patrick
Key Form: Runner-up over 3m at Uttoxeter in May, nearly adding to his Exeter chase win earlier in the season.
Why: Lightly raced over fences with scope for improvement. Pimlico Point’s solid jumping and staying credentials could make him a sneaky each-way play if he builds on his last run.

🏇 Race 4 - 14:55 Taunton (2m Novices’ Hurdle)

1️⃣ Anno Power
Trainer: Harry Fry | Jockey: J J Burke
Key Form: Unbeaten in bumpers and an impressive winner on her hurdling debut at Sandown, showing a powerful late surge despite inexperience.
Why: Anno Power is a mare packed with potential, having shown a sharp turn of foot to win on debut over hurdles. She’s expected to improve significantly, and her proven ability to finish strongly makes her a confident pick to maintain her perfect record.

2️⃣ Tour Ovalie
Trainer: Evan Williams | Jockey: Isabel Williams
Key Form: Progressive mare who completed a hat-trick in a Newbury handicap in December before struggling in tougher company at Windsor.
Why: Back in calmer waters after a tough assignment, Tour Ovalie’s late-running style and proven form in handicaps make her a strong contender. Her consistency and battling qualities suggest she’ll be competitive once again.

3️⃣ Organic
Trainer: Neil Mulholland | Jockey: C O'Farrell
Key Form: Three-time Flat winner up to 1¼m for George Boughey in 2024, now making her hurdles debut.
Why: An interesting recruit to hurdling with solid Flat credentials. If she adapts to jumping well, Organic’s speed and stamina from the Flat could see her outrun her odds, making her a lively each-way option.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Barrabool
Trainer: Harry Derham | Jockey: Paul O'Brien
Key Form: Maiden hurdle winner at Plumpton, though found out in stronger company at Windsor.
Why: While Barrabool struggled in better company, dropping back to this level could suit. With winning experience over hurdles, she might sneak into the frame, especially if allowed to dictate from the front.

🏇 Race 5 - 15:30 Taunton (2m2f Novices’ Handicap Chase)

1️⃣ Lady Pretender
Trainer: Venetia Williams | Jockey: Ned Fox
Key Form: Consistent form with back-to-back placed efforts in handicap chases at Wincanton and Leicester, showing improvement since a second wind operation.
Why: Lady Pretender looks to be hitting her stride for Venetia Williams, demonstrating strong finishing efforts and solid jumping in recent starts. With her form trending upward, she has the tactical speed and staying power to be a major player here.

2️⃣ Camino Rocio
Trainer: Jack Tudor | Jockey: Jack Tudor
Key Form: Hat-trick hero earlier this season, including an impressive win at Market Rasen over 21.4f, showing versatility in trip and conditions.
Why: Camino Rocio has proven to be a progressive type, thriving since joining his current yard. His front-running style can be a key asset at Taunton, and if allowed to dictate the pace, he could be tough to reel in.

3️⃣ Mutley Crew
Trainer: Harry Kimber | Jockey: Harry Kimber
Key Form: Solid effort when third in a competitive Plumpton handicap, with good jumping technique suggesting promise for chasing.
Why: Making his chase debut, Mutley Crew has shown signs of potential over hurdles. With a handy racing weight and a progressive profile, he could sneak into the placings, especially if adapting quickly to fences.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Siam Park
Trainer: Joe Tizzard | Jockey: Brendan Powell
Key Form: Yet to fire over hurdles but has hinted at ability, with a free-going style that might be better suited to chasing.
Why: While inconsistent over hurdles, Siam Park’s pedigree and bold racing style suggest potential over fences. If he settles and jumps well, he could surprise at decent odds, especially with the first-time headgear combination.

🏇 Race 5 - 15:30 Taunton (2m2f Novices' Handicap Chase)

1️⃣ Lady Pretender
Trainer: Venetia Williams | Jockey: Ned Fox
Key Form: Placed in her last two starts over fences at Wincanton and Leicester, showing improved form after a second wind operation.
Why: Lady Pretender is steadily finding her feet for Venetia Williams. She’s run with credit in competitive fields and should benefit from soft ground conditions. With solid form and a capable jockey in Ned Fox, she’s primed to go one better today.

2️⃣ Camino Rocio
Trainer: [Trainer Name Missing] | Jockey: Jack Tudor
Key Form: Completed a hat-trick last time out, winning impressively at Market Rasen over 21.4f on soft ground.
Why: Camino Rocio is in red-hot form, having won three on the bounce with strong front-running tactics. Although dropping back in trip, his ability to control the pace makes him a formidable opponent, especially if he gets an uncontested lead.

3️⃣ Mutley Crew
Trainer: [Trainer Name Missing] | Jockey: Harry Kimber
Key Form: Progressive type with a win at Fontwell and a solid third at Plumpton. Found the step up in trip too much at Exeter but remains promising.
Why: Mutley Crew has shown clear improvement over hurdles and looks ready to make an impact on his chase debut. Back over a more suitable trip, he could surprise a few with a bold showing.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Siam Park
Trainer: Joe Tizzard | Jockey: Brendan Powell
Key Form: A free-going type yet to fulfil potential over hurdles, but makes his chasing debut today with headgear applied.
Why: Despite inconsistent form, Siam Park could be a value play. The switch to fences might unlock improvement, especially with a more aggressive ride. A lively outsider capable of sneaking into the frame if things fall his way.

🏇 Race 6 - 16:05 Taunton (2m3f Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Diesel Line
Trainer: Jeremy Scott | Jockey: Lorcan Williams
Key Form: Showed significant improvement when finishing second of 16 over course and distance just 17 days ago.
Why: Diesel Line looks primed to strike after a strong runner-up effort here recently. That performance hinted at more to come, and with conditions similar today, he's well-positioned to go one better under the capable Lorcan Williams.

2️⃣ Moonlight Artist
Trainer: Joe Tizzard | Jockey: Brendan Powell
Key Form: Won over 23f at Exeter last season and now returns to hurdles with first-time cheekpieces.
Why: Back over hurdles after an unconvincing spell chasing, Moonlight Artist is attractively handicapped. The addition of cheekpieces could sharpen him up, and if he rediscovers his previous form, he’ll be right in the mix.

3️⃣ Gallopade
Trainer: Warren Greatrex | Jockey: Paul O'Brien
Key Form: Dual bumper winner and placed in novice hurdles at Ludlow last year before a layoff.
Why: Although absent since pulling up last April, Gallopade has a decent record when fresh. Warren Greatrex’s string is in good form, and if the market speaks positively, he’s one to keep onside.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Tom Taggle
Trainer: Evan Williams | Jockey: Adam Wedge
Key Form: Poor form to date but showed minor promise when fourth at Hereford last time.
Why: While lightly raced and largely unexposed in handicaps, Tom Taggle could take a step forward here. With potential improvement on the cards and an experienced jockey in Adam Wedge, he’s an interesting outsider.

🏇 Race 7 - 16:40 Taunton (2m3f Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Drash On Ruby
Trainer: Jeremy Scott | Jockey: Rex Dingle
Key Form: Impressive third at Exeter last time, travelling strongly before a costly mistake three out.
Why: Despite being winless in handicaps, Drash On Ruby shaped like a winner-in-waiting on New Year's Day. With that run under her belt and a clear round, she looks primed to capitalise on this mark.

2️⃣ State Of Fame
Trainer: Tom Lacey | Jockey: Cameron Iles
Key Form: Best effort for current yard when third over C&D recently, showing strong late progress in a big field.
Why: State Of Fame responded well to first-time headgear last time, hinting at untapped potential. With a solid pace likely to suit, he can build on that promising effort under his claiming rider.

3️⃣ Two To Tango
Trainer: Emma Lavelle | Jockey: Harry Cobden
Key Form: Consistently placed in recent starts, including a strong second over C&D last time out.
Why: A model of consistency, Two To Tango rarely runs a bad race. The booking of Harry Cobden adds confidence, and if he maintains his recent form, he’s sure to be competitive again.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Grenadier Jed
Trainer: Robert Walford | Jockey: Harry Kimber
Key Form: Showed ability in bumpers and signs of improvement now entering handicap company.
Why: While unproven over hurdles, Grenadier Jed's bumper form suggests potential. Dropping into handicaps could unlock further progress, making him a lively outsider worth noting.