Warwick Race Meeting Preview: Monday, 20th January 2025
The stage is set at Warwick for an enthralling day of National Hunt racing, with eight competitive races on the card. The going is forecast as Good to Soft, and a mix of novices, seasoned handicappers, and hunter chasers will battle it out over varied distances. Here’s a detailed breakdown of each race and insights to guide your selections.
Coldjack
1/20/20257 min read
The stage is set at Warwick for an enthralling day of National Hunt racing, with eight competitive races on the card. The going is forecast as Good to Soft, and a mix of novices, seasoned handicappers, and hunter chasers will battle it out over varied distances. Here’s a detailed breakdown of each race and insights to guide your selections.
12:05 – Hazelton Mountford Insurance Brokers Juvenile Hurdle (Class 4, 2m, £7,000)
This opening race for 4-year-olds showcases promising young hurdlers, with several intriguing contenders.
Key Runners:
Lavender Hill Mob: Trained by James Owen, this gelding has shown promise in stronger company, including a close second in a Juvenile Hurdle at Newcastle. With Sam Twiston-Davies in the saddle and facing a drop in class, he sets the standard.
Aviemore: Harry Derham’s recruit is making his hurdling debut. His solid flat form, including wins over 1m4f, suggests stamina won’t be an issue.
Midnight Rumble: Alan King’s charge disappointed last time but has the form to be a factor.
Verdict:
Lavender Hill Mob
Aviemore
Midnight Rumble
Betting Tip: Lavender Hill Mob to win.
12:35 – Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Div I) (Class 4, 2m3f, £7,000)
Key Runners:
Miss Cynthia: Boasts consistent form over hurdles. Trainer L Wadham and jockey Tom Cannon form a strong partnership.
That’s Nice: A beaten favourite last time, she has the class to bounce back for Nicky Henderson.
Kantagua Du Large: Making her first start for C Boultbee-Brooks, she could surprise with first-time tongue strap applied.
Verdict:
That’s Nice
Miss Cynthia
Jasmine d’Airy
Betting Tip: Tote Swinger: That’s Nice/Miss Cynthia.
13:05 – Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Div II) (Class 4, 2m3f, £7,000)
Key Runners:
I Am The Moon: Noel Williams’ mare impressed with a close finish last time. Her ability to stay the trip makes her a leading contender.
Mistress Emma: Another consistent performer, poised to capitalise on any mistakes by the favourite.
Briery Bee: Should improve with a tongue strap applied.
Verdict:
I Am The Moon
Mistress Emma
Briery Bee
Betting Tip: I Am The Moon for the win.
13:35 – Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (Class 3, 2m4f, £15,000)
Key Runners:
Leader in the Park: Arrives in peak form, with impressive runs in novice company. Looks well-handicapped.
Southoftheborder: Represents Nicky Henderson and will relish the conditions.
Classic Anthem: Has shown gradual improvement, though faces a class rise.
Verdict:
Leader in the Park
Southoftheborder
Classic Anthem
Betting Tip: Leader in the Park for the win.
14:08 – Handicap Hurdle (Class 4, 3m1f, £9,000)
Key Runners:
East Street: Drops in class and boasts strong staying form, making him the one to beat.
Jalisco Star: Capable on his day, he looks a good each-way option.
Ikarak: Consistent and stays well.
Verdict:
East Street
Jalisco Star
Ikarak
Betting Tip: Tote Swinger: East Street/Jalisco Star.
14:40 – Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle (Class 5, 2m3f, £6,250)
Key Runners:
Ideallko: Showed notable improvement last time and has a significant weight advantage.
Emma Hamilton: With Sam Twiston-Davies aboard, she looks primed to challenge.
Greenways: Will be popular with punters based on his consistency.
Verdict:
Ideallko
Emma Hamilton
Greenways
Betting Tip: Ideallko for the win.
15:15 – Handicap Chase (Class 4, 3m1f, £10,250)
Key Runners:
Lunar Contact: Consistent performer who thrives at this trip.
Zero Tolerance: Offers value as a strong finisher.
I See You Well: Represents a yard in form.
Verdict:
Lunar Contact
Zero Tolerance
I See You Well
Betting Tip: Trixie: Lunar Contact, Ideallko, Leader in the Park.
15:50 – Willoughby De Broke Open Hunters' Chase (Class 6, 3m, £4,000)
Key Runners:
Lift Me Up: Progressive and thrives in these conditions.
Bennys King: Drops significantly in class and should go well.
Lord Du Mesnil: Proven stayer who can make his presence felt.
Verdict:
Lift Me Up
Bennys King
Lord Du Mesnil
Betting Tip: Lift Me Up for the win.
Summary
Best Bets:
Lavender Hill Mob (12:05)
Ideallko (14:40)
Leader in the Park (13:35)
Tote Swingers:
That’s Nice/Miss Cynthia (12:35)
East Street/Jalisco Star (14:08)
Trixie:
Lunar Contact (15:15)
Ideallko (14:40)
Leader in the Park (13:35)
With competitive fields and value opportunities, this Warwick meeting promises a thrilling day of racing action. Gamble responsibly and enjoy the spectacle!
False Favourite Analysis for 12:05 Warwick Juvenile Hurdle
The current market favourite is Lavender Hill Mob, with odds of 8/11. Below is an assessment of whether it could be a false favourite, based on its profile and that of the competition.
Lavender Hill Mob
Trainer/Jockey Form: Trainer James Owen has a 20% strike rate recently, and Sam Twiston-Davies is a capable jockey, though with a modest 9.9% success rate at Warwick over the past five years.
Form: Fair hurdle debut when second at Newcastle, but the horse disappointed when finishing fourth at Cheltenham, suggesting possible limitations in stamina or class. It has dropped in grade, which may help, but Cheltenham indicated its finishing kick might be suspect.
Ground: Handles good to soft ground but is yet to prove dominant on this surface.
Race Tactics: Keen runner; might struggle to settle, which was evident at Cheltenham.
Market Movement: Odds suggest confidence, but a 29% overpricing on value (suggested 5/2) raises concerns about the true value.
Conclusion: While the horse has potential, its weak finish at Cheltenham and tendency to pull hard suggest vulnerabilities, especially against fresh debutants.
Key Rivals
Aviemore (7/2)
Profile: Strong flat form, winner of two races over 10 furlongs. Makes hurdling debut for Harry Derham, whose yard won this race last year. Represents the biggest danger.
Stamina: Yet to prove ability over hurdles or at the distance, but pedigree (Kodiac x Pivotal mare) suggests stamina is sufficient.
Market Confidence: Odds have remained steady, indicating solid confidence.
Conclusion: If jumping proves efficient, Aviemore has the potential to outclass Lavender Hill Mob.
Midnight Rumble (11/1)
Form: Finished sixth of seven on hurdling debut at Kempton, but that was a Class 2 race. A drop in grade may improve performance.
Potential: From Alan King's yard, known for nurturing young hurdlers, and flat form indicates scope for progress.
Conclusion: Lacks immediate form but is an interesting contender at the price.
See The Green (14/1)
Form: Won at Ludlow but struggled at Sandown in Class 2. Returns to calmer waters today.
Concerns: Carries a penalty, which may make things tougher against progressive rivals.
Conclusion: Capable but seems to have limitations compared to higher-rated rivals.
Indicators of a False Favourite
Key Vulnerabilities:
Lavender Hill Mob has shown signs of greenness and keenness, which could hinder its ability to dominate today.
Market suggests it is significantly overvalued.
Strong competition from hurdling debutant Aviemore and potential improvers like Midnight Rumble.
Verdict
Lavender Hill Mob could well be a false favourite, as it lacks standout hurdling form, may struggle to settle, and faces strong opposition. Aviemore is the likeliest to upset the favourite, while Midnight Rumble offers potential as a value alternative. If betting, consider an each-way on Aviemore or a lay bet on Lavender Hill Mob for those comfortable with this approach.
Critique and Debrief of Predictions
12:05 Warwick - Juvenile Hurdle
Predictions Recap:
Predicted Lavender Hill Mob could be a false favourite due to past greenness and strong opposition from Aviemore and Midnight Rumble.
Highlighted Aviemore as the main threat and Midnight Rumble as a value contender.
Result: 1st Lavender Hill Mob (1/1fav)
2nd Midnight Rumble (17/2)
3rd Aviemore (10/3)
Analysis: Lavender Hill Mob proved more professional than expected, benefiting from a steady pace and a controlled ride by Sam Twiston-Davies. While Aviemore ran creditably for third on hurdling debut, its inexperience told late on. Midnight Rumble showed expected improvement, validating its each-way potential.
Learning Points:
Dismissing the favourite based on prior greenness was too strong; its form held in a lower grade.
Aviemore lacked hurdling experience, which was underestimated.
12:35 and 1:05 - Mares' Novices' Hurdle Div 1 and 2
Prediction: Focus on class droppers and Nicky Henderson's runners. Division 2 favoured Nigel Twiston-Davies' yard due to strong stable form.
Results:
Div 1: That's Nice (8/11fav) justified favouritism. Miss Cynthia ran second as expected, with outsider Sea Presenting grabbing third.
Div 2: I Am The Moon (11/8fav) also justified favouritism.
Analysis: Both races were won by well-supported favourites. The divisions were relatively straightforward for punters, with top trainers delivering as expected.
Learning Points:
Heavy focus on form and trainers proved effective in novice events.
Both markets were well-informed, and the favourites were appropriately priced.
1:35 - Novices' Handicap Chase
Prediction: Strong confidence in Leader In The Park with Classic Anthem and Jupiter Des Bordes as credible challengers.
Result:
1st Leader In The Park (5/4fav)
2nd Classic Anthem (7/1)
3rd Jupiter Des Bordes (9/1)
Analysis: The race unfolded as predicted, with Leader In The Park asserting dominance late on. Classic Anthem ran well to take second, and Jupiter Des Bordes was consistent in third.
Learning Points:
Clear, consistent form analysis can deliver in competitive novice handicaps.
2:08 - Handicap Hurdle
Prediction: Focused on Ikarak as an outsider with potential.
Result:
1st Ikarak (7/1)
2nd Jalisco Star (9/1)
3rd Minniemum (14/1)
Analysis: Ikarak capitalised on favourable conditions, and the race proved ideal for a tricast bet. The favourite Land Genie disappointed at short odds, as predicted from its exposed profile.
Learning Points:
Identifying progressive types in handicaps continues to offer value.
Tri-casts in open handicaps are lucrative but challenging to land consistently.
2:40 - Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle
Prediction: Backed Moor End for value with Ideallko as a likely winner.
Result:
1st Ideallko (3/1fav)
2nd Moor End (10/1)
3rd Greenways (7/2)
Analysis: The predicted 1-2 materialised, with Ideallko benefiting from its class edge. Moor End ran well to justify each-way support.
Learning Points:
Combining value bets with strong favourites works effectively in novice handicaps.
3:15 - Handicap Chase
Prediction: Always Busy to win, with Chatshow TV and Isle of Gold as challengers.
Result:
1st Always Busy (2/1fav)
2nd Isle of Gold (14/1)
3rd Chatshow TV (11/4)
Analysis: Predictions were accurate, with the fancied runners filling the top three spots. The race shaped as expected.
3:50 - Hunters' Chase
Prediction: Focused on Lift Me Up as an outsider with Benny's King as a potential improver.
Result:
1st Lift Me Up (15/2)
2nd Benny's King (12/1)
3rd Jeux D'eau (5/4fav)
Analysis: Lift Me Up delivered at rewarding odds, with Benny's King running a strong race in second.
Trixie, Swinger, and Tricast Observations
Trixie
A trixie on the three strongest favourites (Lavender Hill Mob, That's Nice, I Am The Moon) would have returned a modest profit, as all three obliged.
Swinger
Swinger bets in races like the 1:35 (Leader In The Park and Classic Anthem) or 2:40 (Ideallko and Moor End) would have paid well.
Tricast
The 2:08 Handicap Hurdle offered the standout tricast (£868.93) with Ikarak, Jalisco Star, and Minniemum. Accurate predictions here could have yielded a significant return.
Summary of Insights
Favourite Bias: Overconfidence in Lavender Hill Mob as a false favourite was an error. Class droppers and market-backed runners often perform well.
Handicap Rewards: Identifying improving types in competitive handicaps offers excellent value, especially in large fields.
Betting Strategy:
Favourites in novices’ and maiden events can be combined in Trixie or Doubles.
Competitive handicaps suit Swinger or Each-Way bets on value runners.
Open races like the 2:08 are ideal for speculative Tricast bets.
By refining favourite analysis and focusing on combinations of value and consistency, future results could improve.
