Warwick Racing Preview – A Day of Thrills, Spills & Winning Potential! (21/02/25)

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
19th to 25th January 2025
Starting Bankroll £30 (28 days)
Top Up to Bankroll £30 12.02.25

Wk 1 £35 Wk 2 £32.01 Wk 3 -£18.12
Wk 4 £30.31

WEEK 5 £10.63
Sun - £02.54
Mon - -£07.00
Tue - £01.67
Wed - £07.50
Thrs - £04.19
Fri - £05.20
Sat - £00.00

Note from Coldjack: ANOTHER BRUTAL DAY! There better BE better things ahead or another £30 top-up will be required! I hope for far more when we go again!

Trixie @4 Lines
Casa Loupi | The Midwife | Claim Du Brizais
Stake £4.00 (4 x £1.00)
Returns £37.24 returned £nowt

(Each Way) Patent @14 Lines
Jupiter Des Bordes | Ghasham | Rightofway
Stake £3.50 (14 x £0.25)
Returns £210.22 returned £2.30

Stakes £7.50 Winning £00.00 (P/L) losing £5.20
Modest returns for the 'Trickey Trixie'
Patent punting for the 'zsar bomba' of booms!
(1pt = £1 Pick Your Own Point Level & Runners)

🔄 Warwick Betting Review – A Tough Day, But Lessons Learned (21/02/25)

📉 Trixie & Patent Outcomes – A Brutal Reality Check

• Total Stake: £7.50

• Total Returns: £2.30

• Profit/Loss: -£5.20

Despite the structure of our bets, nothing quite landed how we expected. While we found some place value, the lack of winners killed any chance of serious returns.

🏇 Trixie Bet #1: The Consistency Play – A Total Bust ❌

1️⃣ Casa Loupi (15:40 Warwick – 2m3f Handicap Hurdle) – ❌ LOST

• Race Result: Unplaced (Lanesborough won at 11/8 fav)

• Mistake: Bad assumption on his handicapping; not as well-in as we thought.

2️⃣ The Midwife (16:10 Warwick – 3m Handicap Chase) – ❌ 2nd Place

• Race Result: 2nd, beaten 5 lengths by Fashion’s Model (7/2)

• Mistake: Looked like the winner for most of the race, but Fashion’s Model was better handicapped.

3️⃣ Claim Du Brizais (16:40 Warwick – 2m NH Flat Race) – ❌ 3rd Place

• Race Result: 3rd, beaten 16L by Betty’s Daisy (3/1)

• Mistake: Expected big improvement but didn’t progress from Aintree run.

💰 Trixie Verdict: 0/3 – £0.00 Returns 💀

🧨 Patent Bet #2: Small Return, But No Boom 🚀

1️⃣ Jupiter Des Bordes (14:40 Warwick – 2m4f Handicap Chase) – ✅ 3rd Place

• Returns: £1.50 Place Money

• Mistake: Ran well but never looked like winning.

2️⃣ Ghasham (15:40 Warwick – 2m3f Handicap Hurdle) – ✅ 3rd Place (Placed 16/1)

• Returns: £3.10 Place Money

• Success: Great each-way shout—best bet of the day.

3️⃣ Rightofway (16:40 Warwick – 2m NH Flat Race) – ❌ LOST

• Returns: £0.00

• Mistake: Too much of a gamble after a 15-month layoff.

💰 Patent Verdict: 2/3 Placed – Returns £2.30

📌 Key Takeaways for Future Betting Strategy

✔ More Each-Way Bets on Handicappers Who Can Place.
✔ Less Blind Trust in "Hot" Handicap Favourites Like Casa Loupi.
✔ Keep Taking a Shot at Value Bets Like Ghasham (16/1) That Can Land.
✔ Better Judgment on Returning Horses – No More 15-Month Layoffs!

📋 Summary of Pre-Race Predictions – Full 7 Races

Here’s how our original analysis compared to the actual results across all seven races.

🏇 Race 1 - 13:40 Warwick (3m2f Handicap Hurdle)

Predicted Top 3 & Wildcard:

✅ Keppel Queen (2nd, 6/1) – Ran Well
✅ Siberian Star (3rd, 10/1) – Solid Place
❌ Myfanwy’s Magic (4th, 8/1) – Just Missed Places
❌ Wildcard: Newtonian – Unplaced

Actual Winner: Barricane (10/1)
Verdict: Decent place picks but no outright winner.

🏇 Race 2 - 14:10 Warwick (2m3f Novices' Hurdle)

Predicted Top 3 & Wildcard:

✅ Prophesea (1st, 9/4) – Nailed It! 🎯
✅ Disco Davis (2nd, 3/1) – Ran Well
✅ Carismatic Soldier (3rd, 7/2) – Placed
❌ Wildcard: Bear Market – 4th (2/1 fav)

Verdict: Best race prediction of the day—completely spot on!

🏇 Race 3 - 14:40 Warwick (2m4f Handicap Chase)

Predicted Top 3 & Wildcard:

✅ Jupiter Des Bordes (3rd, 11/4 JF) – Each-Way Return
✅ Demnat (2nd, 11/4 JF) – Solid Run
❌ King’s Threshold (1st, 13/2) – Overlooked Winner
❌ Wildcard: Pepe Le Moko – Unplaced

Verdict: Decent calls but needed to push King’s Threshold as a better pick.

🏇 Race 4 - 15:10 Warwick (2m Handicap Hurdle)

Predicted Top 3 & Wildcard:

✅ Casi Crudo (3rd, 11/4 fav) – Placed
❌ Chicago Storm – Unplaced
✅ Risk D’Argent – Unplaced (Ran Poorly)
✅ Wildcard: Another Fine Mess (1st, 9/1) – Big Winner! 🎯

Verdict: Wildcard landed the win! Big positive!

🏇 Race 5 - 15:40 Warwick (2m3f Handicap Hurdle)

Predicted Top 3 & Wildcard:

❌ Casa Loupi (Unplaced, 4/1)
✅ Lanesborough (1st, 11/8 fav) – Overlooked in predictions!
✅ Ghasham (3rd, 16/1) – Best Value Each-Way Pick!
❌ Wildcard: Saint Cyr De Pail – Unplaced

Verdict: Ghasham saved the day, but we should have backed Lanesborough.

🏇 Race 6 - 16:10 Warwick (3m Handicap Chase)

Predicted Top 3 & Wildcard:

❌ The Midwife (2nd, 85/40 fav) – Beaten By Better Handicapped Winner
✅ Fashion’s Model (1st, 7/2) – Should Have Been Our Main Pick!
❌ Overabottleofred – Non-Runner
❌ Wildcard: After Many Days – Unplaced

Verdict: Identified the right horses but got priorities wrong.

🏇 Race 7 - 16:40 Warwick (2m NH Flat Race)

Predicted Top 3 & Wildcard:

❌ Claim Du Brizais (3rd, 15/8 fav) – Big Disappointment
✅ Betty’s Daisy (1st, 3/1) – We Should Have Backed This One!
✅ Aj’s Diamond (2nd, 4/1) – Placed Well
❌ Wildcard: Rightofway – Unplaced

Verdict: Right horses but wrong top pick. Needed to back Betty’s Daisy!

🔎 Final Summary – What Worked & What Didn’t

✅ Best Calls of the Day (Winners & Strong Placings)

✔ Prophesea (9/4) – Perfect Pick in Novice Hurdle
✔ Another Fine Mess (9/1) – Wildcard That Won!
✔ Ghasham (16/1) – Solid Each-Way Play

❌ Worst Calls of the Day (Complete Misses)

❌ Casa Loupi – Overhyped Handicap Pick
❌ Rightofway – 15-Month Layoff Killed It
❌ Claim Du Brizais – Did Not Improve as Expected

📊 Overall Accuracy Rating: 5.5/10 – We Got Close, But No Big Payouts!

• Some great place bets & wildcard winners.

• Handicap picks need improvement.

• **We were one or two picks away from serious returns!

👉 We go again! Next time, we refine the strategy and trust the right angles! 💰🏇🔥

Pre-racing Predictions

Trixie Bet #1: The Consistency Play

Objective: Lower-risk, high-probability selections with proven form.

Selections:

1️⃣ The Midwife (16:10 Warwick – 3m Handicap Chase)

• Trainer: Grace Harris | Jockey: Joe Anderson

• Key Form: Progressive mare, won impressively at Chepstow over a similar trip last time.

• Why: Well-handicapped and improving over fences. Proven at the trip and on soft/heavy ground. A strong favourite with a great chance of following up under a penalty.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★★★

2️⃣ Casa Loupi (15:40 Warwick – 2m3f Handicap Hurdle)

• Trainer: Gary & Josh Moore | Jockey: Rob Hargreaves

• Key Form: Two wins at Sandown in quick succession, including off today’s mark. Due to go up 8lb in the future.

• Why: In peak form, well-handicapped, and handles conditions. Going up in trip could bring even further improvement. Big chance for the hat-trick.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★★★

3️⃣ Claim Du Brizais (16:40 Warwick – 2m NH Flat Race)

• Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton

• Key Form: Third in a strong Aintree bumper on debut despite greenness.

• Why: Highly regarded £130,000 purchase who should improve significantly for the run. This is an easier assignment than last time, and Skelton is excellent with bumper horses.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆

💰 Bet Type: Trixie (3 Doubles + 1 Treble = 4 total bets)

• Expected Outcome:

  • Two winners: Stake recovered with some profit.

  • Three winners: Strong return, potential for significant profit.

Trixie Bet #2: The All-Ways Patent (Higher-Risk Play)

Objective: Selections with upside at longer odds but potential risk factors.

Selections:

1️⃣ Jupiter Des Bordes (14:40 Warwick – 2m4f Handicap Chase)

• Trainer: Richard Hobson | Jockey: Dylan Johnston

• Key Form: Solid third on UK chase debut over this C&D.

• Why: Expected to improve second time out, conditions suit, and his UK debut suggested he could progress. A live danger to the favourite.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★☆☆

2️⃣ Ghasham (15:40 Warwick – 2m3f Handicap Hurdle)

• Trainer: Ian Williams | Jockey: C J Todd

• Key Form: Second in his last two starts, shaping like a winner-in-waiting.

• Why: Staying on well in races, could be well-handicapped. Step up in trip could bring improvement. A strong place contender with each-way potential.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★☆☆

3️⃣ Rightofway (16:40 Warwick – 2m NH Flat Race)

• Trainer: Alex Hales | Jockey: Kielan Woods

• Key Form: Fourth on debut over C&D, now returns after a long absence.

• Why: A long layoff is a concern, but she showed promise on debut. If she retains her ability, she’s capable of outrunning her odds in a weaker bumper.

• Confidence Rating: ★★☆☆☆

💰 Bet Type: Patent (3 Singles + 3 Doubles + 1 Treble = 7 total bets)

• Expected Outcome:

  • One winner: Stake mostly covered.

  • Two winners: Profit secured.

  • Three winners: Big returns.

🚀 These bets balance consistency with upside potential – perfect for a structured betting strategy today!

📌 Gamble Responsibly! Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which 'obby Picks (dropping Hs since the dog chewed my denture) are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.
Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

Race-by-Race Predictions

🏇 Race 1 - 13:40 Warwick (3m2f Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Keppel Queen
Trainer: Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill | Jockey: Benjamin Macey
Key Form: Solid form in handicap hurdles, finishing runner-up at Chepstow and Carlisle in November. Unseated rider on chase debut but returns to hurdles with cheekpieces back on.
Why: A progressive mare who looked on the up before an unsuccessful venture over fences. Back in more familiar territory, and with previous solid performances over a similar trip, she holds strong claims. The market is also supportive.

2️⃣ Siberian Star
Trainer: Peter & Michael Bowen | Jockey: Miss Abigail Voyce
Key Form: Point winner who landed a chase at Catterick in January and wasn’t disgraced last time out. Back over hurdles today.
Why: While more experienced over fences, he’s shown he stays well and will relish this test of stamina. If transferring his chase form back to hurdles, he should be in the mix at a fair price.

3️⃣ Myfanwys Magic
Trainer: Martin Keighley | Jockey: Mr Freddie Keighley
Key Form: Runner-up over hurdles at Ludlow last November. Faces a stamina test but first-time cheekpieces could bring improvement.
Why: He has a fair level of form at this trip and could benefit from the application of cheekpieces. His best efforts have come over hurdles, making his return to this sphere a positive.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Newtonian
Trainer: Matt Sheppard | Jockey: Mrs Izzie Hill
Key Form: Won over a similar trip at Warwick last spring and placed twice in the autumn. Poor run last time but can bounce back.
Why: His previous success at Warwick is encouraging, and if he rediscovers his earlier consistency, he has the potential to outrun his odds.

🏇 Race 2 - 14:10 Warwick (2m3f Novices' Hurdle)

1️⃣ Disco Davis
Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton
Key Form: Strong performances in early hurdle starts, including an unlucky fall when leading at Uttoxeter. Won well at Lingfield over 2m and should improve further.
Why: His ability to dictate from the front and his previous misfortune when falling at Uttoxeter suggest he has plenty of untapped potential. A progressive type with an excellent chance under a penalty.

2️⃣ Carismatic Soldier
Trainer: Olly Murphy | Jockey: Lewis Saunders
Key Form: Runner-up in a bumper and built on hurdling debut promise by winning a novice hurdle at Chepstow over 2m.
Why: The step up in trip looks a natural progression for this son of Soldier Of Fortune. Given his improving profile and the yard’s good record with novice hurdlers, he’s a big player.

3️⃣ Prophesea
Trainer: Chris Down | Jockey: Bryan Carver
Key Form: Bumper winner who progressed well over hurdles, winning a Wincanton novice before placing in a Newbury handicap.
Why: The return to novice company should suit, and he’s proven to stay well. Newbury form suggests he has the class to be competitive.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Bear Market
Trainer: Nicky Henderson | Jockey: Nico de Boinville
Key Form: Won a bumper at Aintree but pulled up on hurdles debut at Warwick after losing his action. Had wind surgery since.
Why: Clearly has ability, and if the wind op brings improvement, he could bounce back at a decent price. Henderson runners in novice hurdles always demand respect.

🏇 Race 3 - 14:40 Warwick (2m4f Handicap Chase)

1️⃣ Demnat
Trainer: Venetia Williams | Jockey: Ned Fox
Key Form: Easily won a Ludlow chase on stable debut after a long layoff. Returned with a solid third at Newbury in December in a stronger race.
Why: Dropping in class and coming from a yard known for improving chasers, he has a strong chance. His reappearance run was encouraging, and he should be sharper now.

2️⃣ Jupiter Des Bordes
Trainer: Richard Hobson | Jockey: Dylan Johnston
Key Form: French hurdles winner who shaped well when third on UK chase debut over this C&D.
Why: Expected to improve from that run, and this trip looks ideal. With a solid UK debut in the book, he could step forward and mount a serious challenge.

3️⃣ King’s Threshold
Trainer: Emma Lavelle | Jockey: Thomas Bellamy
Key Form: Back to winning ways at Huntingdon last time after a poor start to the season. Has had a wind operation.
Why: If the wind op brings further improvement, he could build on his recent success. His staying power makes him a strong contender in this company.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Pepe Le Moko
Trainer: Mrs Jane Williams | Jockey: David Noonan
Key Form: C&D winner who ran his best race of the season when fourth at Ludlow recently.
Why: He has struggled this season but is now back at a track he likes. If he can rediscover his best form, he could outrun his odds.

🏇 Race 4 - 15:10 Warwick (2m Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Casi Crudo
Trainer: Alex Hales | Jockey: Kielan Woods
Key Form: Finished runner-up over C&D 13 days ago despite racing too keenly. Only 1 lb higher today.
Why: That recent effort suggests he’s well-handicapped, and if he settles better, he could go one better. A strong contender with the ability to dictate the race.

2️⃣ Chicago Storm
Trainer: Daisy Hitchins | Jockey: Mr Robbie David
Key Form: Surprise winner at Wincanton last month and backed it up with a solid second at Huntingdon.
Why: Proving to be a smart acquisition for the yard, he remains well-treated at the weights and is clearly in good form. Should be competitive again.

3️⃣ Risk D’Argent
Trainer: Alastair Ralph | Jockey: J J Burke
Key Form: 15 runs without a win but showed promise when fifth at Bangor earlier this month.
Why: If he’s on a going day, his mark looks exploitable. Can be tricky but has the ability to figure in this contest at a decent price.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Another Fine Mess
Trainer: Jeremy Scott | Jockey: Bryan Carver
Key Form: Fell on handicap debut last time but was running well beforehand.
Why: Lightly raced and open to improvement, he could be underestimated in the market. If none the worse for his last fall, he’s got potential to surprise.

🏇 Race 5 - 15:40 Warwick (2m3f Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Casa Loupi
Trainer: Gary & Josh Moore | Jockey: Rob Hargreaves
Key Form: Back-to-back wins at Sandown in the past month, latest off today’s mark. Due to go up 8lb in future.
Why: In red-hot form and still well-handicapped despite the rise in class. He travels strongly and stays well, and with a slight step up in trip, he looks well-placed to land the hat-trick.

2️⃣ Lanesborough
Trainer: Ben Pauling | Jockey: Ben Jones
Key Form: Improved since handicapping, twice runner-up, including at Chepstow (2m3f, heavy) last time.
Why: Still lightly raced and has shaped like a winner-in-waiting. Travelled well in defeat last time and, with natural progression, is a key threat to the favourite.

3️⃣ Saint Cyr De Pail
Trainer: Mrs Jane Williams | Jockey: David Noonan
Key Form: Won a maiden at Exeter last April and ran a solid fourth over 2m5f at the same venue last time.
Why: Has hinted at ability and should benefit from a slight drop in trip. Needs to improve to win but has place claims in a competitive field.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Ghasham
Trainer: Ian Williams | Jockey: C J Todd
Key Form: Finished second in both starts since returning to form, last time chasing home a well-backed winner at Uttoxeter.
Why: Progressive, reliable, and should be competitive again. Likely to be staying on late, making him a value each-way contender.

🏇 Race 6 - 16:10 Warwick (3m Handicap Chase)

1️⃣ The Midwife
Trainer: Grace Harris | Jockey: Joe Anderson
Key Form: Progressive mare who improved for fences, winning impressively at Chepstow last time over a similar trip.
Why: Looks well ahead of the handicapper and under a penalty, she should take plenty of beating. Soft/heavy ground suits her well, and she remains open to further improvement.

2️⃣ Overabottleofred
Trainer: David Noonan | Jockey: N/A
Key Form: Finished a strong second on chase debut at Leicester (2m7f, soft) in December, pulling clear of the third.
Why: Looks to have taken well to fences and remains on a winnable mark. If she builds on that promising effort, she’s the main threat to the favourite.

3️⃣ Fashion’s Model
Trainer: Sheila Lewis | Jockey: Ben Jones
Key Form: Won a chase at Wincanton last season and showed a step back in the right direction when fourth at Ludlow last time.
Why: Has slipped to a tempting mark and shaped better last time out. If she can build on that, she could sneak into the places.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: After Many Days
Trainer: Henry Daly | Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies
Key Form: 0-11 overall, but showed a bit more promise when third over hurdles at Leicester last time.
Why: A bit of an unknown quantity over fences, but if she takes to the larger obstacles, she could outrun her odds in a weak-looking race.

🏇 Race 7 - 16:40 Warwick (2m NH Flat Race)

1️⃣ Claim Du Brizais
Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton
Key Form: £130,000 purchase who ran a solid race when third in a strong Class 2 Aintree bumper on debut. Looked green but stayed on well.
Why: Aintree form stands out at this level, and natural progression should see her take all the beating. The Skelton yard excels with bumper horses, and she sets the standard.

2️⃣ Betty’s Daisy
Trainer: Ben Pauling | Jockey: Ben Jones
Key Form: Half-sister to multiple bumper winners, from a respected yard in good form.
Why: The pedigree suggests plenty of ability, and Ben Pauling’s runners are often forward enough for their bumper debuts. Market support would be telling.

3️⃣ Ajs Diamond
Trainer: Chris Gordon | Jockey: Rex Dingle
Key Form: Out of a bumper-winning mare and closely related to some solid jumpers. Yard has a decent strike rate in NH Flat races.
Why: Well-bred and from a yard that knows how to get one ready for these races. Looks a strong each-way contender.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Rightofway
Trainer: Alex Hales | Jockey: Kielan Woods
Key Form: Ran a promising fourth in a big-field Warwick bumper on debut but has been absent for 15 months.
Why: If she retains her ability and builds on that first effort, she could go well at a price. Layoff is a concern, but she has the experience edge over most of the field.

"May you never be a penny short of a full wallet."

ChatGPT said:

Now that is a blessing I’ll gladly take! 🙌 May your accas always land, your favourites stay strong, and your pint never run dry on a good race day. 🍻🏇💰

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥