Wetherby’s Winter Warriors! A Thrilling Day of Jumps Action – Big Winners in the Making! (12/02/25)

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
19th to 25th January 2025
Starting Bankroll £30 (24 days)
Top Ups to Bankroll £30 12.02.25

Wk 1 £35 Wk 2 £32.01 Wk 3 -£18.12

WEEK 4 £36.25
Sun - -£07.50
Mon - £02.17
Tue - -£07.50
Wed - £07.50
Thrs - £00.00
Fri - £00.00
Sat - £0.00

Note from Coldjack: total wiped out again. the first top-up of £30 has been made and the strategy will roll on.
We will do better... when we go again!

Trixie @4 Lines
Latenightrumble | Getaway Drumlee | Il Va De Soi
Stake £4.00 (4 x £1.00)
Returns £63.48 no winners no payout

Patent @7 Lines
Kilta | Berties Ballet | Royal Rhythm
Stake £3.50 (7 x £0.50)
Returns £88.17 no winners no payout

Stakes £7.50 Winning £0.00 (P/L) losing £7.50
Modest returns for the 'Trickey Trixie'
Patent punting for the 'zsar bomba' of booms!
(1pt = £1 Pick Your Own Point Level & Runners)

Comprehensive Critique and Debrief of Pre-Race Predictions

I have analysed the pre-race selections and compared them against the official results from Wetherby – 12th February 2025. Below is a detailed breakdown of how each selection performed, along with an evaluation of the accuracy of the predictions.

Trixie Bet #1: The Consistency Play

1️⃣ Latenightrumble (14:30 Wetherby – 3m Handicap Chase)

• Prediction: Expected winner based on strong course form and progressive profile.

• Result: 2nd at 9/4 – Beaten 2.5 lengths by Sound And Fury (13/2).

• Analysis: Latenightrumble ran well but was outstayed by the eventual winner. His performance was solid, but the market slightly overestimated his ability to dominate this field. He remained a good selection but just failed to deliver the win.

2️⃣ Il Va De Soi (16:13 Wetherby – 2m3½f Handicap Hurdle)

• Prediction: Strong form credentials, expected to resume winning ways.

• Result: Unplaced – Did not finish in the top 4.

• Analysis: A disappointing run. The selection was made on the basis of his Sandown second and progressive profile, but he failed to fire. The softer ground or pace setup may have contributed to his underperformance.

3️⃣ Getaway Drumlee (15:40 Wetherby – 2m3f Novices' Handicap Chase)

• Prediction: Expected winner based on progressive form and strong travelling style.

• Result: Unplaced – Did not finish in the top 4.

• Analysis: A poor result. New Order (11/1) caused an upset, and Theformismighty (6/1) finished second, as one of the shortlist considerations. The market was behind Getaway Drumlee, but he failed to deliver.

Trixie #1 Summary:

• Strike Rate: 1 placed runner (Latenightrumble - 2nd), 2 unplaced.

• Performance Verdict: Underwhelming – The logic behind selections was sound, but results did not justify confidence levels. A partial stake recovery possible with Latenightrumble placing, but an overall loss.

Trixie Bet #2: The All-Ways Patent (Higher-Risk Play)

1️⃣ Kilta (15:40 Wetherby – 2m3f Novices' Handicap Chase)

• Prediction: Solid each-way chance given consistent form and distance suitability.

• Result: 4th at 11/2 – Well beaten by New Order (11/1).

• Analysis: An okay effort, but the sharp drop in performance late in the race showed he wasn't as well-suited to conditions as expected. Just missed out on a place.

2️⃣ Bertie's Ballet (16:13 Wetherby – 2m3½f Handicap Hurdle)

• Prediction: Each-way contender, with stamina and recent form as key positives.

• Result: 2nd at 10/3 – Beaten 3.75L by West To The Bridge (17/2).

• Analysis: A great each-way pick – finishing second ensured a profit for those who backed him place-only. The market was right to respect him, and he justified confidence.

3️⃣ Royal Rhythm (16:48 Wetherby – 2m3½f Handicap Hurdle)

• Prediction: Well-handicapped but out of form. Blinkers refitted.

• Result: 2nd at 2/1F – Beaten 2.5L by Farmer Jimmy (12/1).

• Analysis: Another strong place pick – Royal Rhythm ran much better, but the race favoured Farmer Jimmy (who had a stamina angle). A decent each-way return.

Trixie #2 Summary:

The Patent bet was for WIN only becuase the odds on BF Sportsbook were too short for an E/W angle.

• Strike Rate: 2 places (Bertie’s Ballet - 2nd, Royal Rhythm - 2nd), 1 unplaced.

• Performance Verdict: Profitable on an each-way basis – Strong returns on Bertie’s Ballet and Royal Rhythm, but lack of a winner meant treble didn’t land.

Full Card Race-by-Race Review

Race 1 – 13:55 Wetherby (Novices’ Hurdle)

• Predicted Winner: Wendigo (1/11F) ✅ (1st)

• Predicted Placers: Strolling Along (NR), Klapton Boy (16/1, 3rd) ✅

• Wildcard: Bold Jury (Unplaced) ❌

• Verdict: Highly accurate – Wendigo dominated as expected, Klapton Boy justified a place, but Strolling Along was withdrawn.

Race 2 – 14:30 Wetherby (3m Handicap Chase)

• Predicted Winner: Latenightrumble (9/4, 2nd) ✅

• Predicted Placers: Montregard (Unplaced) ❌, Jar Du Desert (Unplaced) ❌

• Wildcard: Champagnesuperover (NR)

• Verdict: Moderately accurate – Latenightrumble placed, but the winner (Sound And Fury - 13/2) was overlooked.

Race 3 – 15:05 Wetherby (Juvenile Hurdle)

• Predicted Winner: Live Conti (1/9F, 1st) ✅

• Predicted Placers: Scotland The Brave (11/2, 2nd) ✅

• Wildcard: Mandarb (Unplaced) ❌

• Verdict: Highly accurate – Exact first two correctly predicted.

Race 4 – 15:40 Wetherby (Novices' Handicap Chase)

• Predicted Winner: Getaway Drumlee (Unplaced) ❌

• Predicted Placers: Kilta (4th) ❌, Theformismighty (6/1, 2nd) ✅

• Wildcard: Rumoursareflying (Unplaced) ❌

• Verdict: Mixed – Theformismighty placed, but main selection Getaway Drumlee disappointed.

Race 5 – 16:13 Wetherby (Handicap Hurdle)

• Predicted Winner: Il Va De Soi (Unplaced) ❌

• Predicted Placers: Bertie’s Ballet (10/3, 2nd) ✅, Range (4th) ✅

• Wildcard: Highlands Legacy (Unplaced) ❌

• Verdict: Moderately accurate – Good calls on Bertie’s Ballet and Range, but Il Va De Soi was a letdown.

Race 6 – 16:48 Wetherby (Handicap Hurdle)

• Predicted Winner: Royal Rhythm (2/1F, 2nd) ✅

• Predicted Placers: Prince Nino (Unplaced) ❌, Farmer Jimmy (12/1, 1st) ❌

• Wildcard: Silverbridge (Unplaced) ❌

• Verdict: Moderate – Royal Rhythm placed but Farmer Jimmy was underestimated.

Final Verdict on Selections

• Best Prediction: Live Conti (1st), Wendigo (1st), Scotland The Brave (2nd), Bertie’s Ballet (2nd), Royal Rhythm (2nd).

• Biggest Misses: Il Va De Soi (Unplaced), Getaway Drumlee (Unplaced), Kilta (4th).

• Profitability: Patent bet returned a profit (thanks to places on Bertie’s Ballet and Royal Rhythm).

Overall Rating: 6.5/10

✔ Some very strong selections, including correct winners and key placers.
✖ Trixie #1 underperformed.
✔ Each-way approach on Trixie #2 worked well.

📌 Lesson Learned: More weight should be given to race conditions and market late moves rather than assuming progressive horses will always improve.

Pre Race Predictions

Based on the provided race card for Wetherby on 12th February 2025, here are the selections for Trixie Bet #1 (The Consistency Play) and Trixie Bet #2 (The All-Ways Patent):

Trixie Bet #1: The Consistency Play

Selections:

1️⃣ Latenightrumble (Race 2 - 14:30 Wetherby, 3m Handicap Chase)

• Trainer: Tom Ellis | Jockey: Jack Andrews

• Key Form: Impressive C&D winner in December, then ran a strong second at Leicester when undone by a lack of pace. Open to further improvement.

• Why?: A four-time point-to-point winner, Latenightrumble has made a smooth transition to chasing under rules. His Wetherby win was convincing, and his Leicester second has been franked by the form of the winner. With conditions to suit and more progression likely, he’s the one to beat.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆

2️⃣ Il Va De Soi (Race 5 - 16:13 Wetherby, 2m3½f Handicap Hurdle)

• Trainer: Harry Derham | Jockey: Alice Stevens

• Key Form: Ended last season with back-to-back wins and was an eye-catching second at Sandown last time out, travelling fluently before being beaten by a progressive rival.

• Why?: Looks primed to resume winning ways. Showed plenty of class and tactical speed at Sandown, and a return to this level makes him a strong favourite. The cheekpieces stay on, and he should relish conditions.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆

3️⃣ Getaway Drumlee (Race 4 - 15:40 Wetherby, 2m3f Novices' Handicap Chase)

• Trainer: Ben Pauling | Jockey: Ben Jones

• Key Form: Strong efforts in novice chases, finishing second at Fontwell over a similar trip last time out. Travels well in his races and remains on the same mark.

• Why?: Looks primed for a breakthrough win in this sphere. Travelled powerfully at Fontwell before being collared late, suggesting a win is imminent. Retains the services of Ben Jones, and market support is solid. With ideal race conditions, he’s the one to beat.

• Confidence Rating: ★★★★☆

Bet Type:

✔ Trixie (3 Doubles + 1 Treble) – 4 total bets.

Expected Outcome Breakdown:

✅ Two winners should recover the stake or yield a small profit.
✅ All three winners would result in a significant return.

Trixie Bet #2: The All-Ways Patent (Higher-Risk Play)

Objective: Select three horses that offer value at higher odds but have some question marks that introduce risk.

Selections:

1. Kilta (Race 4 - 15:40 Wetherby, 2m3f Novices' Handicap Chase)

   • Recent Form & Reasoning: Kilta has been a model of consistency, with a win at Cartmel followed by multiple placings, including a third at Haydock over a longer trip. The slight drop in distance today could play to his strengths.

   • Confidence Rating: ★★★☆☆

2. Bertie's Ballet (Race 5 - 16:13 Wetherby, 2m3½f Handicap Hurdle)

   • Recent Form & Reasoning: Lightly raced over this trip, Bertie's Ballet demonstrated stamina and determination with a recent win at Haydock. If he handles the extra distance today, he presents a solid each-way chance.

   • Confidence Rating: ★★★☆☆

3. Royal Rhythm (Race 6 - 16:48 Wetherby, 2m3½f Handicap Hurdle)

   • Recent Form & Reasoning: A course winner who has been below form this season but is now on a much-reduced mark. The refitting of blinkers could spark a return to form in this less competitive race.

   • Confidence Rating: ★★☆☆☆

Bet Type: Patent (7 bets: 3 singles, 3 doubles, 1 treble).

Expected Outcome Breakdown:

• One winner should cover most of the stake.

• Two winners would yield a profit.

• All three winners would result in a substantial return.

Please remember that while these selections are based on thorough analysis, horse racing outcomes can be unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

📌 Gamble Responsibly!

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which 'obby Picks (dropping Hs since the dog chewed my denture) are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.
Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

Selections from Wetherby Full Card

🏇 Race 1 - 13:55 Wetherby (2m3f Novices' Hurdle)

1️⃣ Wendigo

Trainer: Jamie Snowden | Jockey: Gavin Sheehan
Key Form: Strong second in the Grade 1 Challow Novices' Hurdle at Newbury, having previously won at Ludlow. By far the classiest runner in the field.

Why: With South Omo Zone now a non-runner, Wendigo's dominance in this field becomes even clearer. His Newbury effort was a huge step forward, and that form is miles ahead of anything else on offer here. The market reflects his superiority, and barring accidents, this should be a procession.

2️⃣ Strolling Along

Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton
Key Form: Fourth in a Carlisle bumper and shaped as if needing the experience on his hurdles debut at Taunton. Should improve for that run.

Why: With South Omo Zone out, Strolling Along is the next logical selection for second. The Skeltons are a powerful combination in novice hurdles, and this runner is expected to step up considerably from his first outing. His bumper form was decent, and he has the right profile to progress.

3️⃣ Klapton Boy

Trainer: [Trainer Not Listed] | Jockey: Tom Broughton
Key Form: Second over this course and distance on his hurdles debut. Has proven ability at the track.

Why: He may lack the class of others in this race but has the benefit of experience over course and distance. With South Omo Zone withdrawn, there’s a real chance he can sneak into the places, especially in a field that lacks depth.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Bold Jury

Trainer: [Trainer Not Listed] | Jockey: Brian Hughes
Key Form: Sixth on debut at Uttoxeter before running out at Newcastle last time.

Why: A risky but intriguing option. If he puts his Newcastle antics behind him, he has the ability to be competitive in this kind of race. Brian Hughes is a top jockey booking, and at a big price, he could be worth chancing for a place.

🏇 Race 2 - 14:30 Wetherby (3m Handicap Chase)

1️⃣ Latenightrumble

Trainer: Tom Ellis | Jockey: Jack Andrews
Key Form: Impressive C&D winner in December, then ran a strong second at Leicester when undone by a lack of pace. Open to further improvement.

Why: A four-time point-to-point winner, Latenightrumble has made a smooth transition to chasing under rules. His Wetherby win was convincing, and his Leicester second has been franked by the form of the winner. With conditions to suit and more progression likely, he’s the one to beat.

2️⃣ Montregard

Trainer: Tom Lacey | Jockey: Stan Sheppard
Key Form: Won over 3m at Market Rasen before a fair third at Taunton. Still unexposed over fences.

Why: This six-year-old is still learning his trade over fences and remains on a workable mark. His Market Rasen win showed potential, and although he was only third at Taunton, he stayed on well. If he takes another step forward, he’s a solid place contender.

3️⃣ Jar Du Desert

Trainer: Nick Kent | Jockey: Tom Broughton
Key Form: Good second over this C&D in November but failed to back it up at Aintree.

Why: A former French chase winner, Jar Du Desert has shown flashes of ability in the UK. His Wetherby second off this mark makes him a player if he can recapture that form. The softer ground and familiar course could bring out the best in him again.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Champagnesuperover

Trainer: [Trainer Not Listed] | Jockey: [Jockey Not Listed]
Key Form: Dual chase winner who was in contention when unseating last time.

Why: He hasn't hit top form in recent runs, but he was still going well when unseating at Catterick. If he puts in a clear round, he's got the ability to outrun his odds and be involved in the finish.

🏇 Race 3 - 15:05 Wetherby (2m Juvenile Hurdle)

1️⃣ Live Conti

Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton
Key Form: Impressive winner on debut at Auteuil in a strong 17-runner juvenile hurdle. That race has already produced multiple subsequent winners.

Why: He’s the clear class act in this field, having won in France at a top track. The fact that he holds a Triumph Hurdle entry speaks volumes about the regard in which he is held. The Skeltons excel with these types, and this should be a routine success before he moves on to much bigger targets.

2️⃣ Scotland The Brave

Trainer: Tristan Davidson | Jockey: Harry Reed
Key Form: Two underwhelming runs over hurdles but recently won a 2m Flat race at Newcastle.

Why: He hasn’t set the world alight over hurdles, but his recent Flat win shows he has ability. If he can carry that improvement back over jumps, he’s the best of the rest and should chase Live Conti home.

3️⃣ Remarkable Flight

Trainer: Jennie Candlish | Jockey: Ross Chapman
Key Form: Won on the Flat but has achieved little over hurdles so far.

Why: She finished second in a weak Leicester race on hurdles debut and was well beaten at Catterick last time. However, in a race lacking depth, she might sneak into the frame if others underperform.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Mandarb

Trainer: Micky Hammond | Jockey: Brian Hughes
Key Form: Fairly useful on the Flat but struggled on hurdles debut.

Why: He jumped poorly when last of six over this C&D in November but has ability from his Flat form in France. If Brian Hughes can get a better round of jumping out of him, he could be a big-price place contender.

🏇 Race 4 - 15:40 Wetherby (2m3f Novices' Handicap Chase)

1️⃣ Getaway Drumlee

Trainer: Ben Pauling | Jockey: Ben Jones
Key Form: Strong efforts in novice chases, finishing second at Fontwell over a similar trip last time out. Travels well in his races and remains on the same mark.
Why: Looks primed for a breakthrough win in this sphere. Travelled powerfully at Fontwell before being collared late, suggesting a win is imminent. Retains the services of Ben Jones, and market support is solid. With ideal race conditions, he’s the one to beat.

2️⃣ Kilta

Trainer: Sam England | Jockey: Jonathan England
Key Form: Solid and consistent, winner at Cartmel and placed in multiple chases since, including a third at Haydock over a longer trip.
Why: A reliable performer who runs to a consistent level and stays well. The slight drop in trip should be fine given his ability to handle testing conditions. He will be staying on strongly and has the form to challenge.

3️⃣ Theformismighty

Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton
Key Form: Southwell chase winner in December but underwhelming in deeper company at Newbury last time.
Why: Skelton’s horses often bounce back, and this one has shown enough promise to suggest he can be involved. The cheekpieces and tongue strap remain on, which helped when he won at Southwell. Should appreciate a return to this class.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Rumoursareflying

Trainer: Pam Sly | Jockey: Paul O’Brien
Key Form: A reliable maiden hurdler who has been knocking on the door and now makes his chase debut.
Why: Could be an interesting contender at a bigger price. Has shown enough ability over hurdles to suggest he could improve for chasing, especially on soft ground. If he jumps well, he could surprise a few of these.

🏇 Race 5 - 16:13 Wetherby (2m3f Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Il Va De Soi

Trainer: Harry Derham | Jockey: Alice Stevens
Key Form: Ended last season with back-to-back wins and was an eye-catching second at Sandown last time out, travelling fluently before being beaten by a progressive rival.
Why: Looks primed to resume winning ways. Showed plenty of class and tactical speed at Sandown, and a return to this level makes him a strong favourite. The cheekpieces stay on, and he should relish conditions.

2️⃣ Highlands Legacy

Trainer: Jonjo O’Neill | Jockey: Jonjo O’Neill Jr.
Key Form: Progressive type, winning impressively at Southwell before finishing second on handicap debut at Wincanton last month.
Why: Open to further improvement in handicaps and was a strong-finishing second at Wincanton. Well-handicapped for this contest and looks a solid contender to be in the mix.

3️⃣ Bertie’s Ballet

Trainer: Dianne Sayer | Jockey: Danny McMenamin
Key Form: Getting better with each run back over hurdles, winning at Haydock last time out in a determined finish.
Why: Lightly raced over this trip but showed plenty of stamina and determination at Haydock. If he handles the extra distance, he has each-way claims.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Range

Trainer: Sam Thomas | Jockey: Dylan Johnston
Key Form: Dual Chepstow winner but has been let down by his jumping over fences. Makes his handicap hurdle debut here.
Why: Could improve for the switch back to hurdles. Has winning form in testing conditions and could go under the radar at an attractive price.

🏇 Race 6 - 16:48 Wetherby (2m3f Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Royal Rhythm

Trainer: Jonjo O’Neill | Jockey: Benjamin Macey
Key Form: Course winner who has been below form this season but is now on a much-reduced mark. Blinkers refitted.
Why: Has been given a major chance by the handicapper. Returns to a more suitable trip and ground conditions. If the blinkers work as they have in the past, he can bounce back to winning form in a weak contest.

2️⃣ Prince Nino

Trainer: Lizzie Quinlan | Jockey: Mr Freddie Keighley
Key Form: Runner-up in his last two starts, including a strong late finish at Newcastle over a similar trip last month.
Why: Seems to be finding his rhythm after a long spell without a win. Stayed on strongly last time and looks to have the stamina to be in the mix again. Well-treated off his current mark.

3️⃣ Farmer Jimmy

Trainer: Mark Walford | Jockey: Mr Paddy Barlow
Key Form: Well beaten in novice hurdles, but steps up in trip for his handicap debut.
Why: A big unknown quantity, but trainer Walford has a good record with handicap debutants. Any market support would be significant, and improvement over this longer trip is expected.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Silverbridge

Trainer: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero | Jockey: Ben Smith
Key Form: Showed some promise when third at Bangor in April but has been disappointing since.
Why: Comes off a break, but if returning to his earlier form, he could be a big improver. Lightly raced and still unexposed at this level. A risky but intriguing each-way option.