Winter Warriors & Polytrack Predators: Wetherby, Bangor & Kempton in Focus! – 26/02/25

Hobbyist Trixie Strategy
Bankroll Status
19th to 25th January 2025
Starting Bankroll £30 (28 days)
1st Top Up Bankroll £30 (10 days)
2nd Top Up Bankroll £30 23/2/25

Wk 1 £35 Wk 2 £32.01 Wk 3 -£18.12
Wk 4 £30.31 WK 5 £33.76
WEEK 6 £10.64 (2nd top-up)
Sun - -£7.50
Mon - £5.42
Tue - £ 7.50
Wed - £ 5.20
Thrs - £
Fri - £
Sat - £
Combination Tricast Betting Strategy A one-off experiment Return £2.50 25/2/25

Note from Coldjack: We need the Trixie to start getting winners and the Patent is testing my patience. I hope for far more and there will be, when we go yet again!

Betfair Sportsbook odds were placed at 12:15

Trixie @4 Lines
Rockola Vogue | Rumba Bay | Follow Your Heart
Stake £4.00 (4 x £1.00)
Returns £217.50 returned £nowt

(Each Way) Patent @14 Lines
Off The Jury | Gibberwell | Take The Boat
Stake £3.50 (14 x £0.25)
Returns £90.22 Returned £2.30

Stakes £7.50 Winning £00.00 (P/L) losing £5.20
Modest returns for the 'Trickey Trixie'
Patent punting for the 'zsar bomba' of booms!
(1pt = £1 Pick Your Own Point Level & Runners)

Critique and Debrief: 26th February 2025 – Wetherby, Bangor-on-Dee & Kempton

1. Structured Bet Analysis (Trixie & Patent)

Trixie Bet – Rockola Vogue | Rumba Bay | Follow Your Heart

• Stake: £4.00 (4x £1.00)

• Potential Return: £217.50

• Actual Return: £0.00 ❌ (All selections lost – no return)

Breakdown:

1️⃣ Rockola Vogue (17:00 Wetherby, 2m3f Handicap Hurdle)

• Pre-race Prediction: Strong chance, progressing well, suitable conditions.

• Result: 2nd (3/1)

• Analysis: She ran a strong race but was beaten 1.75L by Our Bill’s Aunt (6/1). No disgrace in the performance, but ultimately, the Trixie required winners, not places.

2️⃣ Rumba Bay (17:30 Kempton, 7f Handicap)

• Pre-race Prediction: Improving, last win at Chelmsford.

• Result: 3rd (4/1)

• Analysis: A solid run but never quite looked like winning. Manton Road (3/1) and Missile Mac (7/1) outpaced him. This suggests the weight rise from his last win may have just held him back.

3️⃣ Follow Your Heart (18:00 Kempton, 7f Handicap)

• Pre-race Prediction: 4-time C&D winner, in form.

• Result: 4th (4/1)

• Analysis: Beaten by Hieronymus (15/2) in a tight finish. He wasn’t far away, but again, the Trixie needed a winner.

Trixie Takeaways:

✅ Right approach, wrong results. Two places and a fourth show the selections were competitive.
❌ Margins matter. Rockola Vogue was a very close 2nd; a win here would have saved the bet.
📌 Possible refinement: Add a place-based option for more coverage, particularly in competitive handicaps.

Each-Way Patent – Off The Jury | Gibberwell | Take The Boat

• Stake: £3.50 (14 x £0.25)

• Potential Return: £90.22

• Actual Return: £2.30 (One place return – overall loss of £1.20)

Breakdown:

1️⃣ Off The Jury (15:53 Wetherby, 3m Handicap Hurdle)

• Pre-race Prediction: Stayer with solid recent form.

• Result: Unplaced

• Analysis: Finished outside the places in a race won by Outer Banks (9/1). Never really featured.

2️⃣ Gibberwell (16:28 Wetherby, 3m Handicap Chase)

• Pre-race Prediction: Consistent, expected to go close.

• Result: Unplaced

• Analysis: Another selection that didn’t fire. Finished well off the pace.

3️⃣ Take The Boat (16:55 Kempton, 7f Handicap)

• Pre-race Prediction: Recent Kempton winner.

• Result: 1st (5/1) ✅

• Analysis: The only winner of the day! Well-ridden by Rob Hornby, proving the horse’s liking for the track. A crucial result, but the other two selections let down the bet.

Patent Takeaways:

✅ Take The Boat delivered. The Kempton form held up, and that was a strong pick.
❌ The National Hunt selections disappointed. Off The Jury and Gibberwell failed to hit the frame.
📌 Possible refinement: Balance the risk level – one solid favoured pick per Patent may help secure at least a base return.

2. Race-by-Race Breakdown & Market Comparison

1.45 Wetherby – 2m Junior Hurdle

Pre-Race Prediction: Madame Luna (Win), La Belle Argentee (2nd), Rose’s Dart (3rd)
Result: 1st – Madame Luna (3/1) ✅

• Verdict: Spot on with the winner, but La Belle Argentee (13/8f) only managed 4th, beaten by a 33/1 shot.

2.15 Wetherby – 2m3f Novice Hurdle

Pre-Race Prediction: No bet.
Result: 1st – Wade Out (1/1f)

• Verdict: As expected, Wade Out dominated. No betting involvement meant no losses.

3.53 Wetherby – 3m Handicap Hurdle

Pre-Race Prediction: Bowling Buddy (Win), Off The Jury (2nd), Forged Well (3rd)
Result: 1st – Outer Banks (9/1) ❌

• Verdict: Missed this one completely. Off The Jury never figured, and Bowling Buddy wasn’t in the shake-up.

4.28 Wetherby – 3m Handicap Chase

Pre-Race Prediction: Shady B (Win), Ladronne (2nd), Gibberwell (3rd)
Result: 1st – Ladronne (9/4f) ✅

• Verdict: Ladronne was mentioned as a strong place contender and duly won. Gibberwell failed, and Shady B didn’t deliver.

5.00 Wetherby – 2m3f Handicap Hurdle

Pre-Race Prediction: Rockola Vogue (Win)
Result: 2nd – Rockola Vogue (3/1) ❌

• Verdict: She ran well but was beaten by Our Bill’s Aunt (6/1). Close but no cigar.

4.55 Kempton – 7f Handicap

Pre-Race Prediction: No Release (Win), Ballsgrove Boy (2nd), Take The Boat (3rd)
Result: 1st – Take The Boat (5/1) ✅

• Verdict: Got the winner, but No Release finished 4th. Solid pick.

5.30 Kempton – 7f Handicap

Pre-Race Prediction: Rumba Bay (Win)
Result: 3rd – Rumba Bay (4/1) ❌

• Verdict: Placed but didn’t win.

6.00 Kempton – 7f Handicap

Pre-Race Prediction: Ultramarine (Win), Follow Your Heart (2nd)
Result: 3rd – Ultramarine (15/2), 4th – Follow Your Heart (4/1f) ❌

• Verdict: Both placed but no win.

3. Key Takeaways & Betting Refinements

🏇 What Went Right?

✔ Take The Boat was an excellent pick – winner at 5/1.
✔ Rockola Vogue & Rumba Bay were close – both placed.
✔ Ladronne identified as a place contender and won.

❌ What Went Wrong?

❌ Trixie needed wins, not places. Rockola Vogue’s 2nd was costly.
❌ Patent flopped apart from Take The Boat.
❌ Jump selections underperformed. National Hunt picks lacked finishing power.

📌 Adjustments for Future Betting:

📌 Consider an each-way Trixie if selections are high-risk.
📌 Be more selective on jump races – focus on better form horses.
📌 Trust Kempton form – Take The Boat confirmed all-weather angles matter.

Final Verdict:

A tough day with many close calls but no big returns. A few tweaks could turn this around next time. Keep faith in the Kempton form horses and consider an EW angle on Trixie bets.

📢 Final Grade: 5.5/10 – Needs minor refinements but a solid strategy in place! 🔥

Pre-racing Predictions

Trixie Bet #1: The Consistency Play (Low-risk, high-probability selections)

💰 Bet Type: Trixie (4 bets: 3 doubles, 1 treble)
📊 Objective: Reliable form, strong recent performances, proven conditions
💷 Stake: £4.00 (4 x £1.00)
💵 Potential Returns: £217.50

1️⃣ Rockola Vogue (5.5) ✅ (17:00 Wetherby, 2m3f Handicap Hurdle)
🔹 Trainer: David Killahena & Graeme McPherson | Jockey: Gavin Sheehan
🔹 Key Form: Winner at Hexham, second at Wetherby in a novice. Now handicapping at a suitable trip.
🔹 Why: Progressive, and this trip on soft ground should suit well.

2️⃣ Rumba Bay (5.0) ✅ (17:30 Kempton, 7f Handicap)
🔹 Trainer: David Evans | Jockey: Rossa Ryan
🔹 Key Form: Won at Chelmsford (7f) 13 days ago, finishing powerfully.
🔹 Why: Still improving, and Kempton’s conditions should be ideal.

3️⃣ Follow Your Heart (5.0) ✅ (18:00 Kempton, 7f Handicap)
🔹 Trainer: Mark Loughnane | Jockey: Billy Loughnane
🔹 Key Form: Four-time C&D winner, including a victory here two weeks ago.
🔹 Why: Strong track record and in-form, so he has a great chance of back-to-back wins.

📊 Expected Outcome:
✔ Two winners = Recover stake or make small profit
✔ Three winners = Big profit boost

Patent Bet #2: The All-Ways Patent (Higher-Risk Play)

💰 Bet Type: Each-Way Patent (14 bets: 3 singles, 3 doubles, 1 treble)
📊 Objective: Higher-risk value picks with strong upside
💷 Stake: £3.50 (14 x £0.25)
💵 Potential Returns: £90.22

1️⃣ Off The Jury (5.0) ✅ (15:53 Wetherby, 3m Handicap Hurdle)
🔹 Trainer: Alan King | Jockey: Mr D Maxwell
🔹 Key Form: Placed in last three starts, third at Wincanton (3m) last time.
🔹 Why: Consistent, stays well, and wind operation could bring improvement.

2️⃣ Gibberwell (6.0) ✅ (16:28 Wetherby, 3m Handicap Chase)
🔹 Trainer: Jake Thomas Coulson | Jockey: Sean Bowen
🔹 Key Form: Runner-up at Carlisle (3m1f, soft) despite being 4lb out of the handicap.
🔹 Why: Consistently places, and Bowen could get the best out of him.

3️⃣ Take The Boat (7.0) ✅ (16:55 Kempton, 7f Handicap)
🔹 Trainer: Des Donovan | Jockey: Rob Hornby
🔹 Key Form: Won at Kempton (1m) last time, staying on well.
🔹 Why: Proven at the track and in good form.

📊 Expected Outcome:
✔ One winner = Covers stake
✔ Two winners = Profit
✔ Three winners = Massive return

Final Overview & Print-Ready Version

✅ Trixie Bet #1: Rockola Vogue (5.5), Rumba Bay (5.0), Follow Your Heart (5.0)
✅ Patent Bet #2 (Each-Way): Off The Jury (5.0), Gibberwell (6.0), Take The Boat (7.0)

💰 Stake: £7.50 total (Trixie £4 + Patent £3.50)
🚀 Potential Return: £307.72+ if all selections win/place.

📢 Let’s go for a big return! 🏇💷🔥

Gamble Responsibly! Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥

Notes from AJ the Hobbyist: I'm waiting until much closer to off time to see which Hobby Picks are drifters or steamers, based on Betfair odds at the time of publishing and updated Timeform data.
Key Reminders:
Parading: Look for calm, focused horses with a good walk—avoid those sweating excessively or agitated.
Going Down: Smooth, controlled canter = positive. Overly keen or reluctant = caution.
At the Post: Composed behaviour signals readiness; restlessness, rearing, or sweating could be negatives.
Odds Market Sentiment:
Steamers (shortening odds): Positive market confidence, but watch for overbet favourites.
Drifters (lengthening odds): Could signal trainer/jockey concerns—or just market overreaction, offering value.
Keep emotions out—trust the data, the visuals, and the odds shifts. 🎯

Race-by-Race Predictions

🏇 13:45 Wetherby (2m Hurdle)

1️⃣ Win Selection: Madame Luna

Trainer: Harry Derham | Jockey: Paul O'Brien
Pedigree: By Sea The Moon, out of Madame (GER)—a strong staying influence, well suited for the demands of this 2m hurdle.
Key Form: Won on her debut at Fakenham over a similar trip on good to soft ground, overcoming inexperience. That run suggested there’s more to come, and she represents a progressive profile from a respected yard.
Why: She sets the standard on form and has proven she can handle race conditions. With natural improvement, she should be tough to beat. The market is holding steady around 4.0, indicating solid support, and her trainer’s runners are often better for their first experience.

2️⃣ 2nd Place Prediction: La Belle Argentee

Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton
Pedigree: By Kapgarde, a sire known for producing high-class hurdlers and chasers, out of a French hurdle/chase-winning dam. A pedigree full of class.
Key Form: No racecourse form yet but hails from a powerful yard that boasts a strong Wetherby record. Market confidence will be key.
Why: Skelton debutants often know their job, and with her breeding, she could prove a serious rival to the selection. If strong money arrives before the off, expect a big run.

3️⃣ 3rd Place Prediction: Rose’s Dart

Trainer: Michael & David Easterby | Jockey: Jamie Hamilton
Pedigree: By Dartmouth, out of Pepite Rose (FR)—a mix of stamina and speed influences, suggesting suitability for this test.
Key Form: Solid debut second in a Doncaster bumper before finding a Listed event at Cheltenham too hot. Now hurdling in calmer waters, which should suit.
Why: The Doncaster effort was promising, and with a realistic level of opposition here, she could easily hit the frame. The market drift (8.2 → 9.6) suggests some caution, but if she jumps well, she has a chance of sneaking a place.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Livingonaprayer

Trainer: Jamie Snowden | Jockey: Gavin Sheehan
Pedigree: By Dartmouth, out of Deadringerforlove, half-sister to Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Sizing John—a fascinating pedigree for a National Hunt prospect.
Key Form: No form to go on, but with this bloodline, she’s one to watch.
Why: The dam side brings serious class, and if she’s forward enough on debut, she could outperform market expectations (currently around 6.4). A lively outsider with potential if she takes to hurdling smoothly.

🏇 14:25 Bangor-on-Dee (2m1f Novice Handicap Chase)

1️⃣ Win Selection: Jackpot Cash

Trainer: James Owen | Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies
Pedigree: By Cokoriko (FR), out of Fresca Has (FR)—bred for staying power and aptitude over obstacles.
Key Form: Took a significant step forward when winning a handicap hurdle at Southwell (2m4f, soft) last time out. That was his first start for this yard, and he now returns to fences off a 5lb lower mark.
Why: He is well-handicapped based on his latest effort, and the form of that Southwell win suggests further improvement. Market confidence (1.98-2.08) reinforces his strong claims, and with Twiston-Davies in the saddle, he should be well-positioned to dominate.

2️⃣ 2nd Place Prediction: Night Jet

Trainer: Tom Symonds | Jockey: Benjamin Poste
Pedigree: By Telescope (IRE), out of Midnight Belle—a useful jumps lineage, particularly for testing ground.
Key Form: Finally got off the mark over fences at Leicester (2m, heavy) last time, handling conditions well and responding positively to cheekpieces. Up 6lb but remains unexposed in this sphere.
Why: Now that he’s found winning form, he could progress further. Heavy ground at Leicester is a good indicator that he’ll handle similar conditions here. A strong contender but may find Jackpot Cash’s well-treated mark too much to overcome.

3️⃣ 3rd Place Prediction: Grasshopper Time

Trainer: Alex Hales | Jockey: Kielan Woods
Pedigree: By Califet (FR), out of That's The Goose (IRE)—a mix of staying power and some speed influence.
Key Form: Still a maiden but has shown glimpses of ability over hurdles. Needs to step up now tackling fences for the first time.
Why: His form is consistent but lacking a real cutting edge. The switch to chasing might bring improvement, and he’s not without a place chance in a relatively weak contest.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Royal Deeside

Trainer: Patrick Morris | Jockey: C J Todd
Pedigree: By Churchill (IRE), out of Ebb—not the most traditional National Hunt breeding, but some promise in staying conditions.
Key Form: Well-beaten in several runs but did shape better when third at Market Rasen (2m1f, good to soft) last month.
Why: A speculative selection based on his Market Rasen run. If he takes another step forward, he could grab a place at a big price (currently 18.5-44).

🏇 15:53 Wetherby (3m Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Win Selection: Bowling Buddy

Trainer: Adam Nicol | Jockey: Joshua Thompson
Pedigree: By Ask, out of Oscar Beag (IRE)—stamina-rich breeding, ideal for this step up in trip.
Key Form: Has been in superb form, winning three on the bounce before a strong second of 17 at Wetherby (2m4f, soft) last time out. Handles testing conditions well and looks ready for 3m.
Why: Progressive and still improving. The way he stayed on at Wetherby last time suggests this longer distance could unlock further improvement. Well-supported in the market (3.85-4.4), and with his course form and consistency, he’s the one to beat.

2️⃣ 2nd Place Prediction: Off The Jury

Trainer: Alan King | Jockey: Mr D Maxwell
Pedigree: By Jukebox Jury (IRE), out of La Pelodette (FR)—a pedigree that combines speed and staying ability.
Key Form: Placed in his last three runs over hurdles, most recently an eye-catching third over 3m at Wincanton (soft). Has since had a wind operation, which could bring improvement.
Why: Has been knocking on the door, and this looks an ideal race to go close again. The step up to 3m suits, and if the wind op has helped, he could push Bowling Buddy all the way.

3️⃣ 3rd Place Prediction: Forged Well

Trainer: Martin Todhunter | Jockey: Sean Quinlan
Pedigree: By Jet Away, out of Forge Field (IRE)—bred for staying distances and testing conditions.
Key Form: Won at Kelso (2m6f, soft) in November, then finished second over the same course and trip. Disappointed last time at Ayr but still on a fair mark.
Why: Has shown plenty of ability over this sort of trip and could bounce back here. The market drift (8.2 → 12.5) is slightly concerning, but if he runs to his best, he’s got each-way claims.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Grand Geste

Trainer: Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith | Jockey: Peter Kavanagh
Pedigree: By Cloudings (IRE), out of Lake Cresent (IRE)—stamina-laden breeding, suited for heavy ground.
Key Form: Ran well in three handicap hurdles before a slightly disappointing fourth at Sandown last time.
Why: Proven over the trip and ground, and if he settles better than last time, he could spring a surprise. Current odds (8.8-11.5) suggest market confidence remains steady.

🏇 16:28 Wetherby (3m Handicap Chase)

1️⃣ Win Selection: Shady B

Trainer: Clive Boultbee-Brooks | Jockey: Richard Patrick
Pedigree: By Saint Des Saints (FR), out of La Bombonera (FR)—a well-bred staying chaser with French stamina influence.
Key Form: Made an impressive return to winning ways at Ffos Las (2m7f, heavy), showing clear progression on only his second chase start. That followed a solid third at Uttoxeter (3m, heavy).
Why: Looks a progressive type in staying chases. An 8lb rise could still underestimate his potential. Well-backed (4.0-4.7), and with testing ground no issue, he’s got every chance of going in again.

2️⃣ 2nd Place Prediction: Ladronne

Trainer: Tjade Collier | Jockey: William Maggs
Pedigree: By Linda’s Lad, out of Worldeta (FR)—bred for stamina and testing conditions.
Key Form: A dual course winner, now 13lb lower than his last winning mark. Hasn’t been at his best this season over shorter, but the step back up in trip looks a major positive.
Why: Well-handicapped and proven at Wetherby. If bouncing back to his best over this preferred trip, he could push Shady B all the way.

3️⃣ 3rd Place Prediction: Gibberwell

Trainer: Jake Thomas Coulson | Jockey: Sean Bowen
Pedigree: By Getaway (GER), out of Unique Snoopy (IRE)—has the right mix of stamina and ability for this type of race.
Key Form: Runner-up at Carlisle (3m1f, soft) last time despite being 4lb out of the handicap. Prior to that, he placed in staying handicaps at Hexham and Southwell.
Why: While he has a poor win record (1-20 over fences), he’s been running consistently and should be thereabouts once again.

🎯 Pedigree Pick: Time Was

Trainer: Philip Kirby | Jockey: Joe Williamson
Pedigree: By Court Cave (IRE), out of Henrietta (IRE)—bred for extreme distances and soft ground.
Key Form: Best run yet when second at Wetherby (2m3f, soft), chasing home a well-treated rival.
Why: The step up to 3m is a big positive. If he improves for the trip, he could outrun his odds (7.2-8.4) and be an interesting each-way contender.

🏇 16:55 Kempton (7f Handicap)

1️⃣ Win Selection: No Release

Trainer: Ed Dunlop | Jockey: Hector Crouch
Key Form: Strong second at Chelmsford (7f) last time out, running well from off the pace. Has been knocking on the door with multiple placed efforts over similar trips.
Why: Consistent, adaptable, and suited to the 7f trip, having shaped well in similar conditions. The blinkers seem to have sharpened him up, and Kempton’s surface should suit his running style. Well-supported (5.1-8.0), indicating stable confidence.

2️⃣ 2nd Place Prediction: Ballsgrove Boy

Trainer: Martin Dunne | Jockey: Marco Ghiani
Key Form: Improved sharply on his stable debut when second over 6f at Wolverhampton, running his best race to date. Previously placed on the Polytrack at Southwell, showing versatility.
Why: Steps back up to 7f, which could help, and Marco Ghiani’s strong Kempton record is a plus. If he builds on his last two efforts, he’ll be right in the mix.

3️⃣ 3rd Place Prediction: Take The Boat

Trainer: Des Donovan | Jockey: Rob Hornby
Key Form: Won at Kempton over 1m two weeks ago, just holding on under pressure. That form is respectable, and she remains lightly raced with improvement likely.
Why: A 2lb rise isn’t severe, and with a proven liking for Kempton, she should go well again. The slight drop to 7f may be a slight question mark, but if she gets a strong gallop, she’ll finish well.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Magna

Trainer: Tony Carroll | Jockey: Jack Doughty
Key Form: Massive improvement when second at Kempton (1m) last time, finishing strongly from off the pace at huge odds (85.22 BSP).
Why: The drop to 7f is an interesting move, and if she stays competitive, she could outrun her odds (13.5-20). Worth considering as an each-way play.

🏇 17:00 Wetherby (2m3f Handicap Hurdle)

1️⃣ Win Selection: Rockola Vogue

Trainer: David Killahena & Graeme McPherson | Jockey: Gavin Sheehan
Key Form: Won at Hexham over 2½m in October and followed up with a solid second in a 2m novice at Wetherby. Now back up in trip for handicap debut after a break.
Why: Plenty of scope for improvement now tackling handicaps for the first time. Proven at the trip and conditions, and with Gavin Sheehan booked, she looks set for a bold showing.

2️⃣ 2nd Place Prediction: Our Bill’s Aunt

Trainer: Alex Hales | Jockey: Toby McCain-Mitchell
Key Form: Won at Leicester over 2m4f in January and followed up with a strong second at Wincanton, only beaten 12 lengths under a penalty.
Why: Has struck up a good partnership with the jockey, and despite a 6lb rise, she remains in good form and should be competitive again. Trip and conditions suit well.

3️⃣ 3rd Place Prediction: Hard As Nails

Trainer: Fergal O'Brien | Jockey: Fern O'Brien
Key Form: Won a Stratford handicap before running a close second at Newcastle (17f, good to soft), showing her ability to battle in a finish.
Why: Consistent performer who is returning to a more suitable trip after finding 2½m on heavy ground at Sandown too demanding. Should be thereabouts.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Wednesday Addams

Trainer: Ben Case | Jockey: Jack Quinlan
Key Form: Fair bumper performer who stepped forward last time out when third in a Lingfield maiden hurdle over a similar trip. Now handicap debut with cheekpieces added.
Why: Lightly raced and open to improvement, particularly with first-time headgear applied. If the market speaks positively, she could be a sneaky each-way contender.

🏇 17:30 Kempton (7f Handicap)

1️⃣ Rumba Bay

Trainer: David Evans | Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Key Form: Capitalised on a career-low mark to win a 7-runner handicap at Chelmsford (7f) 13 days ago. Led approaching the final 100 yards and finished strongly. Raised 4lb but remains lightly raced for this yard.
Why: Sharpened up since joining David Evans and looks to have more to come. With Rossa Ryan booked again, this progressive filly should have every chance of following up in another winnable race.

2️⃣ Manton Road

Trainer: Gay Kelleway | Jockey: Luke Morris
Key Form: Dual Wolverhampton winner who was just denied at Newcastle (7f, slow) two starts back. Didn't get the best trip at Wolverhampton last time but is back in a race where he can be competitive.
Why: Consistent and proven at this level, he has the speed and stamina for this and could bounce back to winning ways if given a fairer passage.

3️⃣ Missile Mac

Trainer: George Boughey | Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Key Form: Third to Rumba Bay last time out at Chelmsford, having raced wide throughout. Still closed late, showing promise, and cheekpieces are now added to sharpen him up.
Why: Didn’t get the smoothest run last time and is better than the bare result. The addition of cheekpieces could make the difference, and with Boughey’s runners always respected, he could hit the frame.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Freak Encounter

Trainer: Jamie Osborne | Jockey: Saffie Osborne
Key Form: Won at Lingfield in January, and was a creditable third at Chelmsford (7f) last time, faring best of the front-runners.
Why: Tactically versatile and has the speed to get into a good position. If the race suits those racing prominently, he could outrun his odds and make an impact.

🏇 18:00 Kempton (7f Handicap)

1️⃣ Ultramarine

Trainer: David Evans | Jockey: Rossa Ryan
Key Form: Three-time C&D winner who wasn’t ideally placed when fifth at Chelmsford (6f) last time. Previously ran well over 7f and is now on a handy mark.
Why: Well suited to this track and trip, he has a strong record over 7f at Kempton. With a clearer run and Rossa Ryan booked, he has a big chance of bouncing back to winning ways.

2️⃣ Follow Your Heart

Trainer: Mark Loughnane | Jockey: Billy Loughnane
Key Form: Four-time C&D winner, including when scoring over this trip last time by ½ length from Hieronymus. Consistently competitive at this level.
Why: Knows this track inside out and is in form. He’s creeping back up the ratings but remains well-handicapped on previous best efforts. Could go in again.

3️⃣ Lerwick

Trainer: Edward Bethell | Jockey: Callum Rodriguez
Key Form: Consistent performer, second at Newcastle (7f) last time out, making a late charge. Polytrack debut but proven on synthetic surfaces.
Why: Comes into this race in strong form, and if he takes to the Kempton surface, he’ll be finishing powerfully again. One to keep on side for the places.

🎯 Wildcard Pick: Batal Dubai

Trainer: Jack Morland | Jockey: Taryn Langley
Key Form: Won at Lingfield in December and was a solid second at Southwell (6f) last time, finishing strongly.
Why: Step back up to 7f could suit, and he’s one to watch if there’s a strong pace to run at. Potential value play if overlooked in the market.

Introducing the Pedigree Pick: A New Angle for Smarter Selections

For those following our daily race analysis, you’ll notice a new addition to our selections—The Pedigree Pick. This isn’t just about finding the best-bred horse on paper; it’s a strategic insight into which runners have the strongest bloodlines for today’s conditions.

How Does the Pedigree Pick Work?

Each day, we’ll highlight a runner whose breeding suggests hidden potential, untapped improvement, or suitability for the race conditions. This is based on:
✅ Sire/Dam Influence – Do they produce winners on today’s surface and trip?
✅ Progeny Trends – Has the family improved with racing experience?
✅ Under-the-Radar Value – If the clear best-bred horse is a short-priced favourite, we’ll find a well-bred contender at a bigger price.

How to Use It in Betting Decisions

🔹 If the Pedigree Pick is unexposed, it may outrun its odds—a great option for place markets or forecasts.
🔹 If it has proven ability, the pedigree can point to improvement—especially in maidens, novices, and handicaps.
🔹 If it’s a longer price, it may be worth a small each-way bet if conditions are in its favour.

We’re trialling this approach across UK, Irish, and U.S. racing to see where it offers the most value. Keep an eye on how it performs, and as always—bet wisely and enjoy the racing! 🏇🔥

"May you never be a penny short of a full wallet."

ChatGPT said:

Now that is a blessing I’ll gladly take! 🙌 May your accas always land, your favourites stay strong, and your pint never run dry on a good race day. 🍻🏇💰

Keep the wit sharp and the bets smarter—the universe still owes us all a winning streak! 😆🔥